Time-Varying Optimization of Networked Systems With Human Preferences
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Automation & Control Systems↗
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Human Readiness Levels Explained
The Human Readiness Level scale complements and supplements the existing technology readiness level scale to support comprehensive and systematic evaluation of human system aspects throughout a system’s life cycle. The objective is to ensure humans can use a fielded technology or system as intended to support mission operations safely and effectively. This article defines the nine human readiness levels in the scale, explains their meaning, and illustrates their application using a helmet-mounted display example.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling
Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states
Food↗
Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems
This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.
Colorado River↗
NOT ALL ERRORS ARE CREATED EQUAL: EXAMINING HUMAN-ALGORITHM SYSTEM PERFORMANCE FOR INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS-INFORMED VISUAL SEARCH TASKS .
Abstract not provided.
Gastelum, Zoe↗
Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.
Agent-based modeling↗
Evaluation of color in digital nuclear power plant control room displays
Human system interface design in industrial process control is guided by industry standards, human factors best practices, and domain-specific conventions, and often there is a conflict between one or more of the sources of design input for specific design elements. In the nuclear domain, one design element for which conflict arises is the use of color to represent equipment state. Here, this study evaluates the tradeoffs associated with using color in a process control display versus using white and shades of gray. The performance metrics were response time, accuracy, and eye movement metrics using a simplified experimental task and professional operators. Results revealed that adhering to color conventions in nuclear power yielded small advantages in simple tasks, but did not exist for more complex tasks. The results did not provide strong evidence for or against using a particular color scheme and revealed the need for further research on the use of color for commercial nuclear power plants and other process control industries.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research
Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver
E3SM↗
Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)
Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Rethink hydrologic modeling framework with AI integrating multi-processes across scales
The proposed work is to develop a new hydrologic modeling framework that leverages vast amount earth and human system observational data, AI technologies, and data-driven information flows to improve predictability of hydrologic system that involves hydrologic, terrestrial, and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the human and atmosphere systems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Efficient Anomaly Detection Driven By Different Machine Learning Architectures And Models
The rapid growth and ubiquitous adoption of the internet and cyber-physical systems (CPS) have fundamentally transformed modern communication, work, and human-system interactions. While networks now form the backbone of critical digital ecosystems, enabling seamless data transmission across diverse, interconnected systems, this increased connectivity also expands the attack surface, making real-time detection of network intrusions and anomalies a pressing challenge. Detecting unusual activities within network infrastructure requires advanced data traffic analysis to differentiate between legitimate and malicious interactions. Traditional approaches to network anomaly detectionâ??such as rule-based and signature-based systemsâ??often depend on predefined patterns to identify known anomalies, limiting their effectiveness against emerging, stealthy, or previously unseen threats. These conventional methods suffer from high false alarm rates and fail to adapt to the ever-evolving nature of network traffic, particularly in large-scale, decentralized environments where data volume, velocity, and variety are constantly increasing. This dissertation presents artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approaches to anomaly detection that leverage graphics processing unit (GPU)-enabled high-performance computing (HPC) platforms for processing massive network traffic data and monitoring the components of cyber-physical systems (CPS) for potentially hazardous conditions. The research advances several key contributions: (1) Designing efficient machine learning techniques for CPS condition monitoring and anomaly detection; (2) enabling federated learning (FL) frameworks that enable distributed detection while preserving data privacy and system resilience; (3) exploring graph-based methodologies combining graph neural networks (GNN) and graph machine learning (ML) approaches for the Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive network security, and (4) performing distributed edge computing optimizations that integrate FL with scalable technologies for reduced communication overhead. Through extensive experiments, these methodologies demonstrate that complex anomaly detection and condition monitoring tasks can be achieved while balancing computational efficiency and detection accuracy through fine-grained network information processing. The frameworks developed in this research establish a robust foundation for network anomaly detection, providing scalable, adaptive, and privacy-preserving solutions for safeguarding CPS and IoT networks in an increasingly interconnected digital landscape. The practical implications of these research findings are significant, as they can inform the development of next-generation network security systems and contribute to the protection of critical infrastructure against sophisticated cyber attacks.
Marfo, William↗
Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts
International trade increases connections and dependencies between countries, weaving a network of global supply chains. Agricultural commodity trade has implications for crop producers, consumers, crop prices, water and land uses, and other human systems. Interconnections among these systems are not always easy to observe when external impacts penetrate across multiple sectors. To better understand the interactions of non-linear and globally coupled agricultural-bioenergy-water systems under the broader economy, we introduce systematic perturbations in two dimensions, one human (restrictions on agricultural trade) and the other physical (climate impacts on crop yields). We explore these independently and in combination to distinguish the consequences of individual perturbation and interactive effects in long-term projections. We show that most regions experience larger changes in cereal consumption due to cereal import dependency constraints than due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. In the scenario where all regions ensure an import dependency ratio of zero, the global trade of cereals decreases ~50% in 2050 compared to the baseline, with smaller decreases in cereal production and consumption (4%). The changes in trade also impact water and bioenergy: global irrigation water consumption increases 3% and corn ethanol production decreases 7% in 2050. Climate change results in rising domestic prices and declining consumption of cereal crops in general, while the import dependency constraint exacerbates the situation in regions which import more cereals in the baseline. The individual and interactive effects of trade perturbations and climate change vary greatly across regions, which are also affected by the regional ability to increase agricultural production through intensification or extensification.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?
Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Interactive Gas Chemistry for Enhanced Science Capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3
Atmospheric chemistry plays a crucial role in Earth system models (ESMs), controlling atmospheric composition and radiative balance; it is highly interactive with the physical climate, biogeochemical cycles, and human systems. However, it often imposes computational challenges in an ESM. Here we develop a full troposphere‐stratosphere interactive chemistry module for the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We intentionally build a streamlined module based on E3SM version 2 that interacts with other components and maintains all of major chemical and chemistry‐climate feedbacks. The module incorporates a new, highly efficient tracer advection scheme; linearization of stratospheric chemistry; and abridged tropospheric chemical mechanism with 28 reactive tracers. This new model, E3SM‐chem, can readily perform century‐long climate simulations of ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide based on emission scenarios as well as provide hourly budgets for the gas‐phase radicals that drive aerosol chemistry. We evaluate E3SM‐chem with an atmosphere‐only simulation as in the recent climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) finding results similar to the other CMIP6 models. For the present‐day, E3SM‐chem matches the standard measurement metrics for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, surface air quality, other key reactive gases like carbon monoxide, and the methane lifetime. Overall, E3SM‐chem maintains the climate fidelity of the baseline model while adding at most 20% to the computational cost of the atmosphere model. Hence, interactive chemistry can be a default configuration for long climate simulations at resolutions of 1° or finer, which is crucial for producing self‐consistent chemistry‐climate feedbacks that alter the climate system.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
How Management and Leadership Training Can Impact a Health System: Evaluation Findings From a Public Health Management Training Program in Cambodia
In 2017, the National Institute of Public Health in Cambodia collaborated with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide management and leadership training for 20 managers and senior staff from 10 health centers. We conducted a mixed methods evaluation of the program's outcomes and impact on the graduates and health centers. From June 2018 (baseline) to January 2019 (endpoint), we collected data from a competency assessment, observational visits, and interviews. From baseline to endpoint, all 20 participants reported increased competence in seven management areas. Comparing baseline and endpoint observational visits, we found improvements in leadership and governance, health workforce, water, sanitation, and hygiene, and health centers' use of medical products and technologies. When evaluating the improvements made by participants against the World Health Organization's key components of a well-functioning health system, the program positively contributed toward building four of the six components—leadership and governance, health information systems, human resources for health, and service delivery. While these findings are specific to the context of Cambodian health centers, we hope this evaluation adds to the growing body of research around the impact of skilled public health management on health systems.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Medium-scale to large-scale implementation of cyber-physical human experiments in live traffic
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) such as cars and trucks are being developed and tested as Cyber-Physical Human systems while the technology improves. Before these systems can achieve full autonomy, some serve as tools in the form of adaptive cruise control. The CIRCLES Consortium investigates the potential for AVs to increase fuel efficiency of highway traffic by smoothing “stop-and-go” traffic waves that result from normal human driving behavior in congestion. We have performed an experiment to evaluate the real world effects of implementing this strategy. A medium-scale experiment was performed on I-24 near Nashville, TN in August 2021. This was a precursor to a larger experiment that will take place November 2022. We examine how the human part of the experiment will change as we scale up from an 11 vehicle test (four AVs) to 100 AVs. There are many solutions to problems of the medium-scale experiment that would be inconvenient, complicate the experience, or not be practicable. The medium-scale experiment involved 11 cars of which four had a custom control algorithm installed to be engaged by the driver. The large-scale experiment will have 100 cars, all with custom control algorithm installed to act on traffic when the controller is engaged. We examine key choices made for the medium experiment, and how some will be different for the large experiment. Our experience performing the medium-scale experiment has made it clear that repeating our methods from this smaller one are inefficient or impossible if used for the large-scale experiment and will be improved.
McQuade, Sean T.↗
Limerick Safety-Related Instrumentation and Control Upgrade Human Factors Engineering Preliminary Validation Report
This document is a results summary report for the human factors engineering (HFE) preliminary validation (PV) performed for the Limerick Generating Station (LGS) Safety-Related (SR) Instrumentation and Control (I&C) Upgrade Project at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL). This occurred during the week of February 20, 2023.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Co-Evolving Climate Models under Uncertainty to Improve Predictive Skill
Focal Area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models Science Challenge: Advances in modeling of climate and improved observational capabilities have led to great improvements in understanding large-scale historical climate effects. It however remains a challenge to reliably predict the risk of fine-scale regional climate events on human systems even as such risks are on the rise because warmer and wetter climates are more prone to hydrometeorological extremes,
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗