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DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Testing of a Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control Strategy in a Residential House

Demand response plays an important role in addressing the uncertain, intermittent, and variable nature of renewable energy sources. However, to be effective, it requires a significant amount of demand load flexibility, in which buildings are important flexible assets for electricity systems. In this regard, many transactive control tools have been developed to harness this demand flexibility. Yet, such tools are mostly simulation-based or deal with a single load, which may not be sufficient to demonstrate their effectiveness. Towards this end, this paper presents a field implementation and testing of a hierarchical model-free transactive control strategy using residential building thermostatically controlled loads. The transactive control implementation incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control mechanisms. Experimental field-testing results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed transactive control strategy.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Conceptual Model Event and Activity Domains for Forecasting State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power Activities

In FY20, the Savannah River National Laboratory and the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (Virginia Tech) entered a collaboration funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development to develop a machine learning based modeling pipeline to extract proliferation events of interest from open data sources. The prototype modeling pipeline that was developed relies on the use of time dependent word embedding models to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases that act as indicators of events of interest. The FY20- 21 efforts were focused on a narrow topical domain of forecasting “fissile core fabrication” at the Savannah River Site prior to its official announcement in 2018. In FY22, the research team was funded to continue development of the modeling pipeline by applying it to the problem of forecasting new, and/or significant changes to existing, civil nuclear power reactors around the world. In this effort, the development will focus on proving applicability to a broader topical domain and in data environments that may contain more sparse information, relative to the United States. In this report, the worldwide landscape of civil nuclear reactors is outlined, the timeline of interest is defined, and a hierarchical conceptual model is established to identify the activity domains of interest and the event domains of interest. This preliminary effort will guide the curation of a glossary of key terms for data acquisition, as well as the downstream modeling efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Residential Building Loads: An Actual Deployment

The transformation of electricity systems into more sustainable configurations brought some new challenges. The uncertain, intermittent, and variable nature of renewable energy sources require a significant amount of load demand flexibility, in which grid-interactive buildings (GEBs) are important flexible assets for electricity systems. In this regard, many demand response (DR) tools have been developed to harness this demand flexibility. However, such tools are mostly simulation-based or deal with a single load, which may not be sufficient to demonstrate their effectiveness. Towards this end, this paper presents a real-world field implementation and testing of a hierarchical model-free transactive DR control approach on actual GEBs. The control implementation incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control mechanisms. The proposed approach was tested using a total of five GEBs, each having three zones. The results show that the proposed approach can mostly achieve all intended objectives, including flexibility estimation, peak load reduction, power tracking, and controlling GEBs while maintaining occupants’ comfort.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

NASA NTRS1992

Nested-hierarchical scene models and image segmentation

An improved model of scenes for image analysis purposes, a nested-hierarchical approach which explicitly acknowledges multiple scales of objects or categories of objects, is presented. A multiple-pass, region-based segmentation algorithm improves the segmentation of images from scenes better modeled as a nested hierarchy. A multiple-pass approach allows slow and careful growth of regions while interregion distances are below a global threshold. Past the global threshold, a minimum region size parameter forces development of regions in areas of high local variance. Maximum and viable region size parameters limit the development of undesirably large regions. Application of the segmentation algorithm for forest stand delineation in TM imagery yields regions corresponding to identifiable features in the landscape. The use of a local variance, adaptive-window texture channel in conjunction with spectral bands improves the ability to define regions corresponding to sparsely stocked forest stands which have high internal variance.

Woodcock, C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized approach to the operationalization of Software Quality Models

Comprehensive measures of quality are a research imperative, yet the development of software quality models is a wicked problem. Definitive solutions do not exist and quality is subjective at its most abstract. Definitional measures of quality are contingent on a domain, and even within a domain, the choice of representative characteristics to decompose quality is subjective. Thus, the operationalization of quality models brings even more challenges. A promising approach to quality modeling is the use of hierarchies to represent characteristics, where lower levels of the hierarchy represent concepts closer to real-world observations. Building upon prior hierarchical modeling approaches, we developed the Platform for Investigative software Quality Understanding and Evaluation (PIQUE). PIQUE surmounts several quality modeling challenges because it allows modelers to instantiate abstract hierarchical models in any domain by leveraging organizational tools tailored to their specific contexts. Here, we introduce PIQUE; exemplify its utility with two practical use cases; address challenges associated with parameterizing a PIQUE model; and describe algorithmic techniques that tackle normalization, aggregation, and interpolation of measurements.

Data aggregation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Nonlinear analysis of damaged stiffened fuselage shells subjected to combined loads

The results of an analytical study of the nonlinear response of stiffened fuselage shells with long cracks are presented. The shells are modeled with a hierarchical modeling strategy that accounts for global and local response phenomena accurately. Results are presented for internal pressure and mechanical bending loads. The effects of crack location and orientation on shell response are described. The effects of mechanical fasteners on the response of a lap joint and the effects of elastic and elastic-plastic material properties on the buckling response of tension-loaded flat panels with cracks are also addressed.

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear Response and Residual Strength of Damaged Stiffened Shells Subjected to Combined Loads

The results of an analytical study of the nonlinear response of stiffened fuselage shells with long cracks are presented. The shells are modeled with a hierarchical modeling strategy and analyzed with a nonlinear shell analysis code that maintains the shell in a nonlinear equilibrium state while the crack is grown. The analysis accurately accounts for global and local structural response phenomena. Fuselage skins, frames stringers and failsafe straps are included in the models. Results are presented for various combinations of internal pressure and mechanical bending, vertical shear and torsion loads, and the effects of crack orientation and location on the shell response are described. These results indicate that the nonlinear interaction between the in-plane stress resultants and the out-of-plane displacements near a crack can significantly affect the structural response of the shell, and the stress-intensity factors associated with a crack that are used to predict residual strength. The effects of representative combined loading conditions on the stress-intensity factors associated with a crack are presented. The effects of varying structural parameters on the stress-intensity factors associated with a crack, and on self-similar and non-self-similar crack-growth are also presented.

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effects of Combined Loads on the Nonlinear Response and Residual Strength of Damaged Stiffened Shells

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Memory effect and phase transition in a hierarchical trap model for spin glasses

Here, we introduce an efficient dynamical tree method that enables us to explicitly demonstrate the thermoremanent magnetization memory effect in a hierarchical energy landscape. Our simulation nicely reproduces the nontrivial waiting-time and waiting-temperature dependences in this nonequilibrium phenomenon. We further investigate the condensation effect, in which a small set of microstates dominates the thermodynamic behavior in the multilayer trap model. Importantly, a structural phase transition of the multilayer tree model is shown to coincide with the onset of the condensation phenomenon. Our results underscore the importance of hierarchical structure and demonstrate the intimate relation between the glassy behavior and structure of barrier trees.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelica-based system modeling for studying control-related faults in chiller plants and boiler plants serving large office buildings

System modeling is critical when studying operation faults in chiller plants and boiler plants. However, current fault models have difficulties faithfully representing the operation of chiller plants and boiler plants under the effects of those faults, especially the control-related ones. In this study, we present a systematic method to develop high-fidelity models for approximating the behaviors of chiller plants and boiler plants under faulty conditions. Compared to existing ones, the resulting fault models have two advantages: first, they better characterize the dynamic patterns in the system operation. In those models, control architecture and control logic are faithfully implemented. Thus, they can be used to study control-related faults, such as incorrect staging control due to sensor bias and mistuned feedback control. Second, they are readily extensible and can support large-scale investigations to explore different faulty conditions/scenarios. Those models are established in a hierarchical structure while modules in each layer can be redeclared and parameterized at upper layers. In such a case, modifications to the models can be realized through model modifiers and the process can be easily streamlined with scripts. We applied the proposed models in a comprehensive fault impact evaluation of the 13 control-related faults of chiller and boiler plants. In this evaluation, the proposed plant model is coupled with the EnergyPlus thermal load model to study the impact of various faulty scenarios. Based on the evaluation results, we identified the faults that have the most significant impacts on the operation of the chiller and boiler plants, respectively. We also found that the relationship between the impacts of the studied faults and the severity level of the faults are highly non-linear

Huang, Sen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Flexibility Offering Strategy for Integrated Hybrid Resources in Real-time Energy Markets

This paper proposes a hierarchical model for determining the energy flexibility offering strategy of integrated hybrid resources (IHRs) in power distribution systems to participate in real-time energy markets. The proposed model utilizes the scalability, fast response time, and uncertainty observation of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to overcome the scalability issue of operating numerous flexible resources and deliverability of energy flexibility to the real-time markets in the presence of the network constraints. To that end, the power distribution system is divided into multiple IHRs, where different types of flexible loads, energy storage systems, and solar plants with controllable inverters are operated through local IHR controllers, trained by deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm. Active power request and reactive power capacity of IHRs are then transmitted to a central flexibility controller, where a quadratic optimization model ensures the deliverability of the energy flexibility to the real-time energy market by satisfying the distribution network constraints. The proposed model is implemented on the 123-bus test power distribution system, demonstrating the capability of DRL-based hierarchical model for scalable operation of IHRs in order to offer deliverable energy flexibility to the real-time energy market.

Majidi, Majid↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Satellite-derived leaf-area-index and vegetation maps as input to global carbon cycle models - A hierarchical approach

A hierarchical procedure for developing a leaf area index (LAI) map of deciduous boreal forests is studied. The collection of spectral reflectance data from the Boundary Waters Canoe area in Minnesota using helicopter-, high-altitude aircraft-, and Landsat-mounted spectral sensors is described. The relationship between LAI and biomass and the reflectance ratio is analyzed. The sensitivity of canopy reflectance in the visible and infrared to the LAI of the canopy for various boreal forest species is evaluated. The data reveal that Landsat data are useful for producing LAI maps of deciduous forest areas and the maps provide data which clarifies the function of vegetation in the global carbon cycle models.

Badhwar, G. D.↗