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Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.

The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing

Calculations of the effects of both natural and anthropogenic tropospheric sulfate aerosols indicate that the aerosol climate forcing is sufficiently large in a number of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to reduce significantly the positive forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Summer sulfate aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the eastern United States and central Europe. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols contribute a globally averaged annual forcing of -0.3 watt per square meter as compared with +2.1 watts per square meter for greenhouse gases. Sources of the difference in magnitude with the previous estimate of Charlson et al. (1992) are discussed.

Kiehl, J. T.

A carbon dioxide/methane greenhouse atmosphere on early Mars

One explanation for the formation of fluvial surface features on early Mars is that the global average surface temperature was maintained at or above the freezing point of water by the greenhouse warming of a dense CO2 atmosphere; however, Kasting has shown that CO2 alone is insufficient because the formation of CO2 clouds reduces the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. It is possible that other gases, such as NH3 and CH4, were present in the early atmosphere of Mars and contributed to the greenhouse effect. Kasting et al. investigated the effect of NH3 in a CO2 atmosphere and calculated that an NH3 mixing ratio of approximately 5 x 10 (exp -4) by volume, combined with a CO2 partial pressure of 4-5 bar, could generate a global average surface temperature of 273 K near 3.8 b.y. ago when the fluvial features are believed to have formed. Atmospheric NH3 is photochemically converted to N2 by ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths shortward of 230 nm; maintenance of sufficient NH3 concentrations would therefore require a source of NH3 to balance the photolytic destruction. We have used a one-dimensional photochemical model to estimate the magnitude of the NH3 source required to maintain a given NH3 concentration in a dense CO2 atmosphere. We calculate that an NH3 mixing ratio of 10(exp -4) requires a flux of NH3 on the order of 10(exp 12) molecules /cm-s. This figure is several orders of magnitude greater than estimates of the NH3 flux on early Mars; thus it appears that NH3 with CO2 is not enough to keep early Mars warm.

Brown, L. L.

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

Molnar, G. I.

Mars Greenhouse Experiment Module: An Experiment to Grow Flowers on Mars

NASA has entered a new phase of in-depth exploration of the planets where robotic exploration of the Solar System is focusing on in-situ missions that pave the way for human exploration. Creating a human presence on Mars will require specialized knowledge and experience concerning the Martian environment and validated technologies that will provide life-supporting consumables. An understanding of the response of terrestrial organisms to the Martian environment with respect to potential deleterious effects on crew health and changes to biological processes will be paramount. In response to these challenges an innovative selfcontained flight experiment is proposed, which is designed to assess the biocompatibility of the Martian environment by germinating seeds and following their growth through to flowering. The experiment, dubbed Mars Greenhouse Experiment Module (Mars GEM), will be accomplished in a sealed pressurized growth chamber or 'Mars Greenhouse'. Seeds will be grown in Martian soil and the Mars Greenhouse will provide ultraviolet-radiation protected, thermal-controlled environment for plant growth that actively controls the CO2 (required nutrient) and O2 (generated by the plants) levels in the chamber. The simple, but visually dramatic, demonstration of the potential to grow a plant in a man-made environment on the surface of Mars should establish a strong connection between current robotic missions and future human habitation on Mars.

MacCallum, T. K.

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

Shindell, Drew T.

Long Term Manipulations of Intact Microbial Mat Communities in a Greenhouse Collaboratory: Simulating Earth's Present and Past Field Environments

Photosynthetic microbial mat communities were obtained from marine hypersaline saltern ponds, maintained in a greenhouse facility, and examined for the effects of salinity variations. Because these microbial mats are considered to be useful analogs of equivalent ancient marine communities, they offer insights about evolutionary events during the greater than 3 billion year time interval wherein mats co-evolved with Earth's geosphere and atmosphere. Although photosynthetic mats can be highly dynamic and exhibit extremely high activity, the mats in the present study have been maintained for more than one year with relatively minor changes. The major groups of microorganisms, as assayed using microscopic, genetic, and biomarker methodologies, are essentially the same as those in the original field samples. Field and greenhouse mats were similar with respect to rates of exchange of oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon across the mat-water interface, both during the day and at night. Field and greenhouse mats exhibited similar rates of efflux of methane and hydrogen. Manipulations of salinity in the water overlying the mats produced changes in the community that strongly resemble those observed in the field. A collaboratory testbed and an array of automated features are being developed to support remote scientific experimentation with the assistance of intelligent software agents. This facility will permit teams of investigators to explore ancient environmental conditions that are rare or absent today but might have influenced the early evolution of these photosynthetic ecosystems.

Bebout, Brad

[The evaluation of the error of the thermal pulse technique used to measure moisture content of root substrates in space greenhouse]

Point thermopulse probes were used to monitor moisture level in the root substrates during cultivation of higher plants in a space greenhouse. Investigated were performance data of the thermopulse moisture probe in integration with the space greenhouse. It was shown that within the substrate moisture range from 20 up to 100% of the full saturation the technique error does not exceed 1.5%. The thermopulse technique bears much promise for metrologic monitoring of the root substrate moisture content in space greenhouses no matter water and air supply technology.

Flight Experiment

The Spacelab-Mir-1 "Greenhouse-2" experiment

The Spacelab-Mir-1 (SLM-1) mission is the first docking of the Space Shuttle Atlantis (STS-71) with the Orbital Station Mir in June 1995. The SLM-1 "Greenhouse-2" experiment will utilize the Russian-Bulgarian-developed plant growth unit (Svet). "Greenhouse-2" will include two plantings (1) designed to test the capability of Svet to grow a crop of Superdwarf wheat from seed to seed, and (2) to provide green plant material for post-flight analysis. Protocols, procedures, and equipment for the experiment have been developed by the US-Russian science team. "Greenhouse-2" will also provide the first orbital test of a new Svet Instrumentation System (SIS) developed by Utah State University to provide near real time data on plant environmental parameters and gas-exchange rates. SIS supplements the Svet control and monitoring system with additional sensors for substrate moisture, air temperature, IR leaf temperature, light, oxygen, pressure, humidity, and carbon-dioxide. SIS provides the capability to monitor canopy transpiration and net assimilation of the plants growing in each vegetation unit (root zone) by enclosing the canopy in separate, retractable, ventilated leaf chambers. Six times during the seed-to-seed experiment, plant samples will be collected, leaf area measured, and plant parts fixed and/or dried for ground analysis. A second planting initiated 30 days before the arrival of a U.S. Shuttle [originally planned to be STS-71] is designed to provide green material at the vegetative development stage for ground analysis. [As this paper is being edited, the experiment has been delayed until after the arrival of STS-71.].

Non-NASA Center

[Cytoembryologic studies of super dwarf wheat grown in "Svet" greenhouse in the ground-based experiments]

The Project of scientific programs MIR/SHUTTLE and MIR/NASA was allowed for studying the productional, cytoembryological, morphological, biomechanical and other characteristics of superclub wheat on cultivation in the Svet greenhouse on-board orbital complex. This work was aimed at studying the duration of the complete cycle of ontogenesis of wheat and its individual stages, the peculiarities of forming the reproductive organs, processes, fertilization and formation of the seed production while cultivating in the Svet greenhouse under terrestrial conditions. Superclub wheat has been the object of experimentation. On cultivation of superclub wheat in the Svet greenhouse at designated conditions it was found that the cycle duration "from seed to seed" was 90-97 days. The number of granules in the wheat-ears studied was quite low and ranged from 15 to 30%. Performed studies with applying the light microscopy have indicated that in superclub wheat the embryological processes occur in compliance with those regularities which are described for the other forms of soft wheat.

Non-NASA Center

Biomass Burning and the Production of Greenhouse Gases

Biomass burning is a source of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. In addition, biomass burning is a source of chemically active gases, including carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbons, and nitric oxide. These gases, along with methane, lead to the chemical production of tropospheric ozone (another greenhouse gas) as well as control the concentration of the hydroxyl radical, which regulates the lifetime of almost every atmospheric gas. Following biomass burning, biogenic emissions of nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, and methane are significantly enhanced. It is hypothesized that enhanced postburn biogenic emissions of these gases are related to fire-induced changes in soil chemistry and/or microbial ecology. Biomass burning, once believed to be a tropical phenomenon, has been demonstrated by satellite imagery to also be a regular feature of the world's boreal forests. One example of biomass burning is the extensive 1987 fire that destroyed more than 12 million acres of boreal forest in the People's Republic of China and across its border in the Soviet Union. Recent estimates indicate that almost all biomass burning is human-initiated and that it is increasing with time. With the formation of greenhouse and chemically active gases as direct combustion products and a longer-term enhancement of biogenic emissions of gases, biomass burning may be a significant driver for global change.

Levine, Joel S.

[Evaluation of super dwarf wheat growth and development in greenhouse "Svet" during cultivation in inhabited pressurized chamber]

Goals of the 3-month experiment GREENHOUSE using the equipment of greenhouse SVET (ECO-PSY-95) were to feature growth and development of wheat through the entire cycle of ontogeny under the maximally mimicked MIR environment, and to try out the procedures and timeline of space experiment GREENHOUSE-2 as a part of the fundamental biology investigations within the MIR/NASA space science program. Irradiation intensity (PAR) was 65 W/m2 and 38 W/m2 in the experiment and laboratory control, respectively. Values of other environmental parameters were MIR average (18-25 degrees C, relative air humidity in the interval between 40% and 75%, total gas pressure of about 660 to 860 mm Hg, partial oxygen pressure within the range from 140 to 200 mm Hg, partial carbon dioxide pressure up to 7 mm Hg). Experimental results showed that wheat cultivation in inhabited chamber under a modified lighting unit providing greater irradiation of the crop area produced more plant mass although seed production dropped. Low grain content in ears could be the aftermath of the gaseous trace contaminants in the chamber atmosphere.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems

Impact Delivery of Reduced Greenhouse Gases on Early Mars

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form - as proposed by Ramirez et al. [1], later refined by Wordsworth et al. [2], and confirmed by Ramirez [3] - collision induced absorptions between CO2-H2 or CO2-CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. To raise surface temperatures significantly by this mechanism, surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level. Both Wordsworth et al. [2] and Ramirez [3] show that the melting point can be reached in atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2-10% H2; smaller concentrations of H2 will suffice if CH4 is also present. If thick weakly reducing atmospheres are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks.

greenhose gases

Warming Early Mars by Impact Degassing of Reduced Greenhouse Gases

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form collision induced absorptions (CIA) involving H2 and/or CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power in a predominately CO2 atmosphere to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. Surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level for CIA to be effective. Atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2- 10% H2 can sustain surface environments favorable for liquid water. Smaller concentrations of H2 are sufficient if CH4 is also present. If thick CO2 atmospheres with percent level concentrations of reduced gases are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox for Mars, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks. In this paper we focus on impact delivered reduced gases.

Haberle, R. M.

Dynamical Response of Mediterranean Precipitation to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901-2010, roughly one-third (31+/-17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol-cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.

Tang, Tao

Extratropical influence of upper tropospheric water vapor on Greenhouse warming

Despite its small quantity, the importance of upper tropospheric water vapor is its ability to trap the longwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface, namely the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is defined quantitatively as the difference between the longwave flux emitted by the Earth's surface and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux emitted from the top of the atmosphere (TOA) (Raval and Ramanathan 1989).

Greenhouse warming water vapor greenhouse effect

Life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States

Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, tax credits of up to $3/kgH 2 are available to hydrogen producers if they generate emissions at levels below 0.45 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 , spurring producers to explore how hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated by nuclear power may qualify for such tax credits. With uranium as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and no on-site emissions, the upstream emissions associated with nuclear fuel supply chains largely determine the carbon intensity of nuclear energy. Using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, we evaluated the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of uranium production and the use of uranium to generate electricity in light water reactor (LWR) NPPs. We evaluated the process chemicals and energy inputs throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to identify the major contributors to nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Such emissions are estimated at 3.0 gCO 2 e/kWh at NPPs in the United States. The greatest share of nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions—comprising 53% of total emissions—are associated with electricity consumption throughout the fuel supply chain. We extended the analysis to include an evaluation of the carbon intensity of H 2 production via electrolysis using nuclear power from LWRs. Finally, we examined the impact of future (2035 and 2050) electricity supply chain scenarios on nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis revealed a decrease of 33% (2035) and 46% (2050) in the carbon intensity of nuclear electricity relative to current nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions.

greenhouse gas emissions

Consequential Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Actions That Influence the Electric Grid: The Theory and Practice of Using Marginal Emissions Rates

This paper discusses consequential greenhouse gas emissions analysis for actions that influence the electric grid that is, the analytical approach of estimating how such actions change greenhouse gas emissions, relative to what they otherwise would have been without the action. Although the paper starts with general considerations, it ultimately focuses on consequential analysis with marginal emissions rates as an option likely more scalable than others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY