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Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.

Energy balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.

Satellite Sounder-Based OLR-, Cloud- and Atmospheric Temperature Climatologies for Climate Analyses

Global energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system may change due to natural and man-made climate variations. For example, changes in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) can be regarded as a crucial indicator of climate variations. Clouds play an important role -still insufficiently assessed in the global energy balance on all spatial and temporal scales, and satellites provide an ideal platform to measure cloud and large-scale atmospheric variables simultaneously. The TOVS series of satellites were the first to provide this type of information since 1979. OLR [Mehta and Susskind], cloud cover and cloud top pressure [Susskind et al] are among the key climatic parameters computed by the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A algorithm using mainly the retrieved temperature and moisture profiles. AIRS, regarded as the new and improved TOVS , has a much higher spectral resolution and greater S/N ratio, retrieving climatic parameters with higher accuracy. First we present encouraging agreements between MODIS and AIRS cloud top pressure (C(sub tp) and effective (A(sub eff), a product of infrared emissivity at 11 microns and physical cloud cover or A(sub c)) cloud fraction seasonal and interannual variabilities for selected months. Next we present validation efforts and preliminary trend analyses of TOVS-retrieved C(sub tp) and A(sub eff). For example, decadal global trends of the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-D2 P(sub c), and A(sub eff)/A(sub c), values are similar. Furthermore, the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-AVHRR [available since 19831 cloud fractions correlate even more strongly, including regional trends. We also present TOVS and AIRS OLR validation effort results and (for the longer-term TOVS Pathfinder Path-A dataset) trend analyses. OLR interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and both from the AIRS [Susskind et al] and TOVS OLR computations are in remarkably good agreement. Global monthly mean CERES and TOVS OLR time series show very good agreement in absolute values also. Finally, we will assess correlations among long-term trends of selected parameters, derived simultaneously from the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A datase

Molnar, Gyula I.

NASA contributions to the global habitability program

As a result of developments occurring over the last two decades, the data acquisition, storage, analysis, and transmission facilities are now available for a concerted long-term interdisciplinary and international study of the global environmental system. Such a study is the essence of the 'Global Habitability' concept introduced in 1982. The aims of Global Habitability research are considered, taking into account an understanding of the vital global processes of the earth's energy balance, the global hydrological cycle, and the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. Details of NASA planning for Global Habitability are discussed along with international data exchange arrangements. Attention is given to the possible contributions of satellite data and associated techniques to Global Habitability, examples of specific research conducted by NASA in support of the Global Habitability and the international sharing of data and results for Global Habitability.

Mcconnell, D. G.

Black Carbon Vertical Profiles Strongly Affect Its Radiative Forcing Uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

black carbon

ICESat Observations of Inland Surface Water Stage, Slope, and Extent: a New Method for Hydrologic Monitoring

River discharge and changes in lake, reservoir and wetland water storage are critical terms in the global surface water balance, yet they are poorly observed globally and the prospects for adequate observations from in-situ networks are poor (Alsdorf et al., 2003). The NASA-sponsored Surface Water Working Group has established a framework for advancing satellite observations of river discharge and water storage changes which focuses on obtaining measurements of water surface height (stage), slope, and extent. Satellite laser altimetry, which can achieve centimeter-level elevation precision for single, small laser footprints, provides a method to obtain these inland water parameters and contribute to global water balance monitoring. Since its launch in January, 2003 the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), a NASA Earth Observing System mission, has achieved over 540 million laser pulse observations of ice sheet, ocean surface, land topography, and inland water elevations and cloud and aerosol height distributions. By recording the laser backscatter from 80 m diameter footprints spaced 175 m along track, ICESat acquires globally-distributed elevation profiles, using a 1064 nm laser altimeter channel, and cloud and aerosol profiles, using a 532 nm atmospheric lidar channel. The ICESat mission has demonstrated the following laser altimeter capabilities relevant to observations of inland water: (1) elevation measurements with a precision of 2 to 3 cm for flat surfaces, suitable for detecting river surface slopes along long river reaches or between multiple crossings of a meandering river channel, (2) from the laser backscatter waveform, detection of water surface elevations beneath vegetation canopies, suitable for measuring water stage in flooded forests, (3) single pulse absolute elevation accuracy of about 50 cm (1 sigma) for 1 degree sloped surfaces, with calibration work in progress indicating that a final accuracy of about 12 cm (1 sigma) will be achieved for clear atmosphere conditions, suitable for detection of stage changes through time, (4) ability to precisely point the spacecraft so as to position the laser profile on the Earth the surface with a cross-track accuracy of 50 m (1 sigma), enabling small water bodies and specific locations to be targeted and re-observed through time, (5) adequate signal levels from specular water surfaces up to 5 degrees off-nadir, enabling complete global access to any location on the Earth's surface from the ICESat repeat orbit by off-nadir pointing, and (6) day and night operation with successful laser ranging to the Earth's surface through thin to moderate cloud cover, enabling more frequent measurements than can be achieved by passive optical sensors. Here we illustrate these capabilities by showing ICESat observations through time for selected river and lake locations.

Harding, David J.

Contamination, misuse and abuse of the global oceans leading to ecosystem damage and destruction, health consequences and international conflict

Unregulated uses of the oceans may threaten the global ecological balance, alter plant and animal life and significantly impact the global climatic systems. Recent plans to locate large scale structures on the oceans and to exploit the mineral riches of the seas pose even greater risk to the ecological system. Finally, increasing use of the oceans for large scale transport greatly enhances the probability of collision, polluting spills and international conflict.

Source record

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

climate change

Global Driving of Auroral Precipitation: 1. Balance of Sources

The accurate determination of auroral precipitation in global models has remained a daunting and rather inexplicable obstacle. Understanding the calculation and balance of multiple sources that constitute the aurora, and their eventual conversion into ionospheric electrical conductance, is critical for improved prediction of space weather events. In this study, we present a semi-physical global modeling approach that characterizes contributions by four types of precipitation—monoenergetic, broadband, electron, and ion diffuse—to ionospheric electrodynamics. The model uses a combination of adiabatic kinetic theory and loss parameters derived from historical energy flux patterns to estimate auroral precipitation from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) quantities. It then converts them into ionospheric conductance that is used to compute the ionospheric feedback to the magnetosphere. The model has been employed to simulate the 5–7 April 2010 Galaxy15 space weather event. Comparison of auroral fluxes show good agreement with observational data sets like NOAA-DMSP and OVATION Prime. The study shows a dominant contribution by electron diffuse precipitation, accounting for ∼74% of the auroral energy flux. However, contributions by monoenergetic and broadband sources dominate during times of active upstream solar conditions, providing for up to 61% of the total hemispheric power. The study also finds a greater role played by broadband precipitation in ionospheric electrodynamics which accounts for ∼31% of the Pedersen conductance.

Agnit Mukhopadhyay

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43: Initial Evaluation of the Climate - MERRA-2

The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

MERRA-2

Consistency Study of Enhanced Shortwave Cloud Absorption Using GEBA Data

Under the support of this project, we have obtained the following results:(1) Shortwave radiative fluxes in current atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simultaneously match Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) at the surface. This inconsistency of model results with observation is a result of insufficient absorption of solar radiation in the model atmosphere; (2) Current state-of-the art global datasets describing the energy balance of the atmosphere cannot close the atmospheric energy budget if algorithm-derived surface shortwave radiative fluxes are used. The deficient amount of 20 W/sq m is similar to the recently reported enhanced absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere; (3) We have clarified several sampling problems in the analysis of the collocated monthly GEBA/ERBE data sets which are germane to the interpretation of the clear-sky absorption of shortwave radiation in the atmosphere. As a result, the collocated monthly ERBE/GEBA data can be effectively used to infer enhanced absorption of atmospheric radiation in measurements relative to models, but it cannot be unambiguously used to answer whether the enhanced absorption is in clouds or in clear sky. Other field data are needed to resolve this issue; and (4) Analysis of aircraft measurements during Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Enhanced Shortwave Experiment (ARESE) field campaign supports the enhanced absorption of solar radiation in clouds.

Zhang, Ming-Hua

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.

ERBE and AVHRR Cirrus cloud fire study

Understanding the impact of cirrus clouds on the global radiation budget is essential to determining the role of clouds in the process of climate change. The ongoing Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is charged with measuring the global radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) is measuring global cloud amounts and properties over a time frame similar to ERBE. Specific cloud properties are absent from the ERBE program, while ISCCP lacks the broadband radiances necessary to determine the total radiation fields. Together, results from these two global programs have the potential for improving the knowledge of the relationship between cirrus clouds and the Earth radiation balance. The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), especially its cirrus Intensive Field Observations (IFO), provides opportunities for studying radiation measurements from the ERBE taken over areas with known cirrus cloud properties. Satellite measurements taken during the IFO are used to determine the broadband radiation fields over cirrus clouds and to examine the relationship between narrowband and broadband radiances over various known scenes. The latter constitutes the link between the ERBE and the ISCCP.

Harrison, Edwin F.

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin

Precipitation Measurements from Space: Why Do We Need Them?

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to be launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.

Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.

Remote sensing of the ring current using energetic neutral atoms

Energetic neutral atom images of the storm-time ring current obtained from the ISEE-1 spacecraft provide information for a 'zero-order' global model of the energetic ion distribution. With the assumption of isotropic pressure and magnetostatic, nonconvective pressure balance, the global system of electrical currents driven by the ion pressure can be calculated using Euler potentials for the divergenceless current density. Radial pressure gradients drive azimuthal currents, and azimuthal pressure gradients drive radial currents. The radial currents cause current lines in the inner magnetosphere to close in the ionosphere, forming a partial ring current. The intensities and locations of these field-aligned currents driven into and out of the ionosphere resemble those of the observed Region 2 current system, but not all observed properties of the Region 2 system are reproduced by the zero-order model.

Roelof, Edmond C.