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Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Building and experimenting with an agent-based model to study the population-level impact of CommunityRx, a clinic-based community resource referral intervention

CommunityRx (CRx), an information technology intervention, provides patients with a personalized list of healthful community resources (HealtheRx). In repeated clinical studies, nearly half of those who received clinical “doses” of the HealtheRx shared their information with others (“social doses”). Clinical trial design cannot fully capture the impact of information diffusion, which can act as a force multiplier for the intervention. Furthermore, experimentation is needed to understand how intervention delivery can optimize social spread under varying circumstances. To study information diffusion from CRx under varying conditions, we built an agent-based model (ABM). This study describes the model building process and illustrates how an ABM provides insight about information diffusion through in silico experimentation. To build the ABM, we constructed a synthetic population (“agents”) using publicly-available data sources. Using clinical trial data, we developed empirically-informed processes simulating agent activities, resource knowledge evolution and information sharing. Using RepastHPC and chiSIM software, we replicated the intervention in silico, simulated information diffusion processes, and generated emergent information diffusion networks. The CRx ABM was calibrated using empirical data to replicate the CRx intervention in silico. We used the ABM to quantify information spread via social versus clinical dosing then conducted information diffusion experiments, comparing the social dosing effect of the intervention when delivered by physicians, nurses or clinical clerks. The synthetic population (N = 802,191) exhibited diverse behavioral characteristics, including activity and knowledge evolution patterns. In silico delivery of the intervention was replicated with high fidelity. Large-scale information diffusion networks emerged among agents exchanging resource information. Varying the propensity for information exchange resulted in networks with different topological characteristics. Community resource information spread via social dosing was nearly 4 fold that from clinical dosing alone and did not vary by delivery mode. This study, using CRx as an example, demonstrates the process of building and experimenting with an ABM to study information diffusion from, and the population-level impact of, a clinical information-based intervention. While the focus of the CRx ABM is to recreate the CRx intervention in silico, the general process of model building, and computational experimentation presented is generalizable to other large-scale ABMs of information diffusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Foreword Special issue on the Kilopower Project, Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) Test

This special issue of Nuclear Technology contains full-length, peer-reviewed papers describing the design work leading up to and the results of the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) test. KRUSTY was the centerpiece of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kilopower Project to design, build, and test a space nuclear reactor. This test was the first such test since the end of the Space Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) project at the end of the 1960s. In this issue, the introduction paper presents the goals of the Kilopower Project and the potential missions this reactor concept could serve in NASA. Kilopower was intended to serve both human exploration needs on planetary surfaces as well as science needs for deep-space exploration. The design work for the experiment by Poston and the power conversion development by Gibson present the pre-work required to perform the eventual KRUSTY test. A paper on regulatory analysis follows, to show the path used to gain approval of the proposed experiment. Then, the early zero-power critical experiments are presented by Sanchez and Grove. These experiments were essential data used to enhance model predictions prior to the high-temperature test. Next, Poston presents the three experiments (warm criticals) that increase the temperature in an incremental fashion prior to the final experiment. These experiments were used to achieve final regulatory approval of the final high-temperature experiment. The last paper by Poston presents the results of the steady-state and transient testing of the reactor at full power and at the design temperature. These results show that the reactor design and as-built experiment met all of the requirements that NASA had developed for the system. Any experiment of this magnitude was accomplished only because of the hard work and dedication of a large number of people at multiple institutions, including the NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Y-12 National Security Site, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Nevada National Security Site prime contractor (formerly National Security Technologies and now the Mission Support and Test Services). The project was jointly funded by the Space Technology Mission Directorate at NASA and the Criticality Safety Program at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). A special thanks to Jerry McKamy and Angela Chambers at the NNSA and Lee Mason and Don Palac at NASA for their support and guidance. For the authors and multitude of staff that performed this work, the passion for space nuclear reactors was the key to making this experiment a reality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Using Facebook to Recruit Urban Participants for Smartphone-Based Travel Surveys

Social media has become an integral part of everyday life for many individuals, serving as a platform to express opinions, share memories and lifestyles, follow news, and adapt to social trends and norms. The wealth of user information and analytics on these platforms has facilitated the development and sale of tailored products and services, benefiting advertisers and researchers seeking survey participants. Social media advertising has demonstrated its effectiveness in reaching hard-to-reach populations. However, transport researchers have yet to capitalise on this potential fully. This paper presents our experience using social media to recruit participants for two smartphone travel surveys conducted in Australia. We demonstrate that social media recruitment and smartphone-based travel surveys are highly effective, adaptable, and can be rapidly deployed in response to research opportunities, such as during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic when traditional methods may be less suitable. This approach also holds great potential for travel surveys targeting the general population. This paper shares several lessons from this experiment, including our administrative approach and detailed technical instructions to utilise open-source software tools for conducting smartphone travel surveys like ours. This approach significantly reduces study costs compared to most commercial solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗

2021-2026 Weapons Research Services Strategic Plan

The Weapons Research Services (WRS) Division provides Los Alamos National Laboratory with services, resources, and staff that are critical to fulfilling its national security mission. WRS serves the entire LANL Weapons Program and is housed within the Weapons Physics Directorate (ALDX), which is at the core of the design, certification, and assessment of the nation’s nuclear weapons. More specifically, WRS is a research and development organization that provides unique tools designed to meet the specific needs of the Lab’s weapons mission rather than administrative or Information & Technology (IT) tools used broadly by the Lab. WRS partners with other LANL organizations, including Global Security to conduct mission research and I&T organizations to meet basic IT infrastructure needs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

ADAM Program Execution Plan LANL Inputs (FY2022)

The National Security Research Center (NSRC) is Los Alamos National Laboratory’s classified library. There are two groups associated with the NSRC, both of who work for LANL’s Weapons Research Services (WRS) division (WRS-SIS and WRS-WMT). These groups are funded in part by the NNSA Archives Program. The NSRC’s collections include tens of millions of documents from the Manhattan Project era through today. It is staffed with an expert, highly trained staff of librarians, archivists, digitizers, historians, and communications specialists. The NSRC traces its lineage to the wartime Technical Library created by J. Robert Oppenheimer during in 1943. Today, it supports a broad range of researchers within the LANL Weapons Program and beyond. The NSRC also has customers across other National Nuclear Security Administration labs and sites, and partners in the Department of Defense. This report highlights LANL accomplishments through NSRC.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

State Policies on Access to Vaccination Services for Low-Income Adults

Importance State vaccination benefits coverage and access for adult Medicaid beneficiaries vary substantially. Multiple studies have documented lower vaccination uptake in publicly insured adults compared with privately insured adults. Objective To evaluate adult Medicaid beneficiaries’ access to adult immunization services through review of vaccination benefits coverage in Medicaid programs across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Design, Setting, and Participants A public domain document review with supplemental semistructured telephone survey was conducted between June 1, 2018, and June 14, 2019, to evaluate vaccination services benefits in fee-for-service and managed care organization arrangements for adult Medicaid beneficiaries in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (total, 51 Medicaid programs). Exposures Document review of benefits coverage for adult immunization services and supplemental survey with validation of document review findings. Main Outcomes and Measures Benefits coverage for adult Medicaid beneficiaries and reimbursement amounts for vaccine purchase and administration. Results Public domain document review was completed for all 51 jurisdictions. Among these, 44 Medicaid programs (86%) validated document review findings and completed the survey. Only 22 Medicaid programs (43%) covered all 13 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices–recommended adult immunizations under both fee-for-service and managed care organization arrangements. Most fee-for-service arrangements (37 of 49) reimbursed health care professionals using any of the 4 approved vaccine administration codes; however, 8 of 49 programs did not separately reimburse for vaccine administration to adult Medicaid beneficiaries. Depending on administration route, median reimbursement for adult vaccine administration ranged from $\$9.81$ to $\$13.98$ per dose. Median per-dose reimbursement for adult vaccine purchase was highest for 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine ($\$204.87$) and lowest for Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine ($\$18.09$). Median reimbursement was below the private sector price for 7 of the 13 included vaccines. Conclusions and Relevance Even in programs with complete vaccination benefits coverage, reimbursement amounts to health care professionals for vaccine purchase and administration may not fully cover vaccination provision costs. Reimbursement amounts below costs may reduce incentives for health care professionals to vaccinate low-income adults and thereby limit Medicaid adult beneficiary access to vaccination.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗

Normative Ranges for Oculomotor and Reaction Time Tests in U.S. Military Service Members and Veterans

AbstractBackground Oculomotor and reaction time tests are frequently used assessments of vestibular symptoms, traumatic brain injury (TBI), or other neurological disorders in both clinical and research contexts. When interpreting these tests it is important to have a reference interval (RI) as a comparison for what constitutes a typical/expected response; however, the current body of research has only limited information regarding normative ranges calculated according to established standards or for a military-specific sample.Purpose The purpose of the present study was to describe RIs for oculomotor and reaction time tests in a cohort of service members and veterans (SMVs) for use as comparators by clinicians and scientists.Research Design Descriptive.Study Sample Participants were prospectively enrolled in the Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center-Traumatic Brain Injury Center of Excellence 15-year Longitudinal Traumatic Brain Injury Study. Only SMVs without a history of TBI or blast exposure were included in the RI calculations.Data Collection and Analysis The test paradigms included in this analysis were: smooth pursuit, prosaccades, antisaccades, saccades and reaction time, predictive saccades, optokinetic nystagmus, auditory reaction time, and visual reaction time. Nonparametric methods, based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's recognized consensus standards, were used to calculate 95% RIs. A comparison between the calculated RIs and those available from previously published research is provided.Results Summary statistics and RIs were calculated for 47 outcome parameters from 13 oculomotor and reaction time tests. Sample sizes and age ranges varied across outcome parameters depending on the availability of reference values for RI calculations. The sample sizes used to calculate RIs ranged from 51 to 69. The age of SMVs included in each RI ranged from 19 to 61 years with mean ages ranging from 37 to 39 years. Similarities/differences between the RIs in the present study and those in previously published research are highly dependent on the outcome parameter; however, in general, the RIs in the present study tended to be somewhat wider.Conclusion The RIs provided in this paper can serve as comparisons for clinicians and scientists who are utilizing these oculomotor and reaction time testing paradigms in similar cohorts of patients or research participants.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

OPALCO - Decatur Island Solar and Energy Storage Project: An Assessment of Battery Technical Performance

Orcas Power & Light Cooperative (OPALCO) is a member-owned, nonprofit cooperative utility that provides energy services to approximately 11,200 customers across 20 islands in San Juan County, Washington. OPALCO’s mostly hydroelectric power is generated by Bonneville Power Administration and delivered to the islands by submarine cables. In 2016, as part of the second round of funding from the Washington state Clean Energy Fund, OPALCO received a $1 million matching grant to support a project that deployed a 504-kW LG community photovoltaic (PV) system in combination with a 1 MW/2 MWh lithium-iron-phosphate battery energy storage system (BESS) on Decatur Island, Washington. The Decatur Island Substation is essential to ensuring reliable energy for the residents of the San Juan Islands as it is the point of interconnection with the mainland transmission system. The BESS, in combination with the community solar array, will deliver an innovative method to both defer the costly upgrade of the transmission system and allow for other high-value applications intended to benefit the utility and its customers. In 2018, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed a preliminary economic assessment for several identified use cases in collaboration with OPALCO. Between August 2021 and May 2022, extensive testing was conducted, and the results were used to assess the technical performance of the BESS subjected to actual field operations. Both reference performance and use case tests were performed: (a) Reference performance tests assess the general technical capabilities of the BESS, such as energy capacity, round-trip efficiency (RTE), ramp rate, and signal tracking capability. These are the first tests performed (baseline) and are repeated after use case tests (post cycle). A standardized U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) energy storage performance protocol was used to characterize the BESS, including representative duty cycle profiles, test procedure guidance, and calculation guidance for determining key characteristics. (b) Use case tests examine the performance of the BESS for specific use cases using duty cycles developed by PNNL in collaboration with OPALCO. Four use cases were selected for testing: 1) demand charge reduction, 2) load shaping, 3) outage mitigation, and 4) transmission deferral. The use case duty cycles were developed based on utility and site-specific characteristics in addition to the technical characteristics and physical capabilities of the BESS. Use case tests were performed between the baseline and post cycle tests. This report describes the BESS and its components, presents testing and performance analysis results, and shares key insights and lessons learned from this project. Outcomes of the tests and analyses will help OPALCO understand the performance of the Decatur Island BESS in its current state and design appropriate operational strategies for this and other BESSs over the long term.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis of Respirator Cartridge Performance Testing on Hanford Tank A-101

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) conducted tests on two types of chemical cartridges for use in air purifying respirators (APR) to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance1 to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) from vapors emanating from the headspace of tank A-101 on the Hanford Site. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing a cartridge change schedules.[3] Testing is commonly applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist, and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to ensure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Testing was conducted over a period from July 22-24, 2016, using headspace vapors from Hanford tank A-101 under static conditions2 fed to a respirator cartridge test stand developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose respirator cartridges, SCOTT 7422-SD1 and 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina) were assessed on separate days with A-101 headspace vapors. Sample media (sorbent tubes) were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridge, and were subsequently analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life. Key conclusions from the assessment of the 59 COPCs in this study are described below: • Based on d measured cartridge inlet vapor concentrations from tank A-101 headspace, both ammonia and N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) exceeded their Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL).3 These measurements were generally consistent with maximum A-101 headspace measurements previously obtained for these two compounds. • Ammonia had respirator cartridge outlet concentrations that exceeded 10% of the OEL for both cartridges tested, indicating breakthrough for each. For the SCOTT 7422-SD1 cartridge, ammonia appeared to breakthrough above 10% of its OEL after 2 hours. For the SCOTT 7422-SC1 cartridge, ammonia breakthrough appeared to occur after 8 hours. 1 “Adequate performance” refers to the breakthrough criteria used in this analysis—that is, sustained cartridge outlet concentrations above 10% of the OEL. For some COPCs, an alternate threshold has been applied when necessary due to higher detection limit (DL)/reporting limit (RL) values for specific compounds. Ultimately, Industrial Hygiene professionals will use these results along with specific hazard assessments to determine service life and cartridge use that provides the necessary performance. 2 These tests were conducted under static conditions absent waste-disturbing activities in the subject tank or tank farm. 3 Occupational Exposure Limits accepted for Hanford Tank Farm use are based on OELs established by a U.S. governmental agency or national professional organization (e.g., OSHA, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists), or if no U.S. OEL exists, standard toxicological practices are applied to develop OELs using non-U.S. exposure limits, other established OELs for chemical surrogates when available, or other standard procedures. The OEL for NDMA was established in 2005 based on the MAK (Maximale Arbeitsplatzkonzentration) Commission standard adopted in Europe. iv • Despite respirator inlet measurements for NDMA that were in excess of its OEL, all corresponding outlet measurements, from both respirator cartridges, were below analytical DL 1 for the

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information

In May 2025, nearly 700 participants from all around the world coalesced at 10 regional nodes and a few satellite nodes to take part in a global hackathon of kilometer-scale (horizontal grid spacing < 10 km) regional and global Earth system models. Exciting science is emerging from these efforts, ranging across novel model analysis, new ways of integrating with satellite data, and emulation with machine learning. New technologies were trialed that enable the community to work in new and complementary ways to democratize access to global information at a local scale from a set of the world’s highest-resolution climate models. The hackathon demonstrated how exascale data can be organized to be accessible to anyone. Fundamentally, the community could apply these techniques and technologies to move toward more participative models for coproduction and delivery of diverse sources of climate information for climate scientists and citizens alike.

Climate models↗

Respirator Cartridge Performance on Mixed Vapors from Hanford Tank Headspaces and Exhausters - 20427

Between 2016 and 2018, the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor - Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) - conducted a series of tests of air-purifying respirator (APR) chemical cartridges commonly used at Hanford tank farms to determine the period of time for which the cartridges would provide adequate performance when used in APRs and powered-air-purifying respirators (PAPRs) to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of vapors exiting tank headspaces. Although cartridge manufacturers provide service life estimating tools for individual chemical compounds, the projected performance of these cartridges on complex vapor mixtures is not available, and the adequacy of APRs for tank farm applications represents an important workforce concern. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing cartridge service life. The primary function of the WRPS Cartridge Test Program was to obtain objective data to determine service lives for the APR and PAPR cartridges used at Hanford tank farms. WRPS contracted with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to analyze the test data and offer an independent analysis of and recommendations based on respirator cartridge performance. A total of 28 APR and 10 PAPR cartridge tests were conducted between 2016 and 2018 on 12 different tank headspaces and tank farm exhauster slipstreams. Two APR cartridges from SCOTT (now 3M) and two PAPR cartridges from MSA Safety, Inc. and 3M were evaluated using a cartridge testing system specifically designed to measure and monitor test conditions and sample cartridge inlet and outlet vapor streams for important chemical compounds. Testing focused on analysis of approximately 61 tank vapor chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) that have been previously detected in tank vapors at levels above 10% of their occupational exposure limits (OELs). Each test was conducted over 16 hours of run time. Evidence of chemical breakthrough was assessed by comparing inlet and outlet COPC concentrations over the duration of each test. The breakthrough threshold was normally defined as exceeding 10% of the compounds OEL at the cartridge outlet. Ammonia breakthrough was observed in a majority of the cartridge tests and occurred earlier than breakthrough of any other chemical compound. Several other COPCs did exhibit breakthrough behavior, including mercury, 1,3-butadiene, furan, 2,5 dihydrofuran, and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), but only in a very limited number of cartridge tests and only after ammonia breakthrough had occurred. In addition, tests results suggest that breakthrough of some of these COPCs may have been affected by competition with and breakthrough of other non-COPC organics, such as ethanol and acetone, with substantially lower toxicological hazard. Comparison of cartridge manufacturers' service life estimates with the experimentally derived breakthrough times indicates that manufacturers' estimates are generally conservative, even in the presence of the complex mixed vapor streams experienced in these tests. With consideration of appropriate safety margins, these results provide valuable insights on cartridge performance to inform industrial hygiene professionals in establishing appropriate cartridge change-out schedules for APR and PAPR use in the Hanford tank farms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

EMPOWERED Distributed Energy Resources Permit Accelerator Pilot

This report summarizes the EMPOWERED Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Permit Accelerator Pilot project. Its primary objective was to streamline the design, installation, permitting, and inspections of targeted Distributed Energy Resource (DER) solutions. Streamlining these processes is critical to strengthening and accelerating the adoption of DER solutions nationwide. Moreover, streamlined processes help expedite the clean energy transition and expand energy resilience by improving understanding and capability among key stakeholders like property owners, code officials, and the general workforce. The project team accomplished this by developing and deploying a set of design and permitting guides for simple DER solutions, which they rolled out via a permitting pilot program. The project team developed nine permitting and inspection guides for simple DER solutions, as follows: 1. Single-Family and Duplex: Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE), and Storage, Solar + Storage (each in two code cycles) 2. Multi-family and Office: EVSE, Storage, Solar + Storage (each in two code cycles) 3. A permitting process guide to support the implementation of the permitting guides. The guides cover key code requirements via plan review and field inspection checklists for code officials and building owners to follow to streamline the permitting and inspections process for DER solutions. Following the development of the initial set of guides, the project team formed two cohorts, each made up of four jurisdictions, to participate in the Permit Accelerator Pilot. Each cohort received training and technical assistance to support them in incorporating the guides into use. The project successfully engaged jurisdictions in two disparate US regions: Chelsea, Somerville, Natick, and Norwood in metro Boston; and Pima County, Town of Gilbert, Flagstaff, and Sedona in Arizona. Feedback gathered from the project was valuable in refining the guides to better address jurisdictional needs. After the pilot period, the project team developed final versions of the guides based on extensive feedback from the cohorts and from external technical peer review. Feedback included needs and barriers related to implementation, as well as detailed technical improvements from external peer review. The final guides were presented in a series of webinars with a national reach, with 192 attendees from 35 states in the live session of the final webinar, and the final guides are posted online and available for use nationwide. Key findings: • The most receptive jurisdictions were those adjacent to other jurisdictions that had already adopted similar initiatives. The least receptive jurisdictions were those in the midst of adopting new code cycles. • The most common barrier to jurisdictional adoption of new guidelines were internal administrative and process delays, more so than technical barriers. • The main technical barrier to adoption proved to be the concern of fire hazard risks posed by energy storage systems. There is some apprehension in the code enforcement community about the safety of the batteries. Education coordinated with fire and safety services will help alleviate concerns and increase confidence in the acceptance of innovative technologies. • Opportunities to further leverage and advance the guides and related resources include outreach, education, and jurisdictional support; updates to the resources to align with code cycle changes and local requirements; and advancements supporting emerging technologies.

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Use of the Manuela 3D/Radiation Scanning Tool at Nuclear Facilities - 20437

Licensees, facility operators and decommissioning contractors have a need for comprehensive, accurate and precise radiological and topographical data to plan and execute safe and efficient Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) projects. Traditional approaches rely greatly upon labor and administratively intensive data collection methods that require considerable time and effort to glean the relevant data to plan and perform work in a radiological work area. Orano Decommissioning Services has developed and utilized at French nuclear facilities a lightweight portable scanning instrument called MANUELA (Mobile Apparatus for Nuclear Expertise Localization Assistance). Recently Orano conducted demonstrations at two United States nuclear facilities using MANUELA that may prove useful in areas of the fuel cycle including: - ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) planning during facility operations; - Scoping and site characterization during the D and D planning phase; - Remedial action support during active decommissioning work; - Radiation and modeling planning for plant modifications; - Support Final Status Survey and demonstration of 'end state' compliance for license termination. MANUELA is currently being evaluated for use during decommissioning of nuclear facilities and could aide in demonstrating compliance with end state criteria after decommissioning. Of particular interest are decommissioning projects planned for various sites across the United States. Most of these sites present unique challenges and opportunities to safely and efficiently decommission in a regulatory compliant manner. The two demonstration site's current conditions of relatively low radiation levels inside containment proved to be ideal platforms to deploy the MANUELA instrument for evaluation of the complex geometries typically found in a nuclear facility. The MANUELA instrument was able to precisely identify local hot spots of the reactor system's primary equipment and was able to simultaneously overlay the dose information onto the scanned 3D images. Using data like this, a licensee would be able to make informed technical and personnel decisions on methods to remediate, shield or properly dispose of the radioactive source term. MANUELA can be used throughout the decommissioning process to validate progress and continue to refine the work activities to optimize the efforts of the crew which reduces downtime waiting for survey results, whereas traditional survey methodology relies on a physical survey to be performed and the data transcribed onto survey maps that are only two dimensional. The traditional format tends to be inaccurate and difficult to interpret the precise location(s) of hot spots or generalized dose rates. The resultant scan also allows the user to know the exact extent of the survey versus transposing information onto a map with only a portion of the map area scanned. MANUELA also compiles all of the relevant survey data into a downloadable table format which includes the measurement identification number, time stamp, point space location on the XYZ plane, and the dose rate value. (authors)

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