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At least 55 records · Page 3

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of multi-shell fullerenes using Machine-Learning Gaussian Approximation Potential

Multi-shell fullerenes ”buckyonions ” were simulated, starting from initially random configurations, using a density-functional-theory (DFT)-trained machine-learning carbon potential within the Gaussian Approximation Potential (GAP) Framework [Volker L. Deringer and Gábor Csányi, Phys. Rev. B 95, 094203 (2017)]. Fullerenes formed from seven different system sizes, ranging from 60 ~ 3774 atoms, were considered. The buckyonions are formed by clustering and layering starting from the outermost shell and proceeding inward. Inter-shell cohesion is partly due to interaction between delocalized π electrons protruding into the gallery. The energies of the models were validated ex post facto using density functional codes, VASP and SIESTA , revealing an energy difference within the range of 0.02 - 0.08 eV/atom after conjugate gradient energy convergence of the models was achieved with both methods.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Simulation of time series by distorted Gaussian processes

Distorted stationary Gaussian process can be used to provide computer-generated imitations of experimental time series. A method of analyzing a source time series and synthesizing an imitation is shown, and an example using X-band radiometer data is given.

Greenhall, C. A.↗

Efficient Data Query for Gaussian Process Compressed Data through Value Range Estimation [Slides]

When the resolution of the data increases, data reduction methods are applied to simulation output, including Gaussian process, neural representation and compression algorithms. Lots of data analysis/visualization techniques requires data query, but data query from reduced representation is still challenging. This report will provide examples and provide possible answers to why data query from reduced representation is still challenging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Development and application of a non-Gaussian atmospheric turbulence model for use in flight simulators

A method is described for generating time histories which model the frequency content and certain non-Gaussian probability characteristics of atmospheric turbulence including the large gusts and patchy nature of turbulence. Methods for time histories using either analog or digital computation are described. A STOL airplane was programmed into a 6-degree-of-freedom flight simulator, and turbulence time histories from several atmospheric turbulence models were introduced. The pilots' reactions are described.

Reeves, P. M.↗

A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

Kibler, J. F.↗

The Effect of a Non-Gaussian Random Loading on High-Cycle Fatigue of a Thermally Post-Buckled Structure

High-cycle fatigue of an elastic-plastic beam structure under the combined action of thermal and high-intensity non-Gaussian acoustic loadings is considered. Such loadings can be highly damaging when snap-through motion occurs between thermally post-buckled equilibria. The simulated non-Gaussian loadings investigated have a range of skewness and kurtosis typical of turbulent boundary layer pressure fluctuations in the vicinity of forward facing steps. Further, the duration and steadiness of high excursion peaks is comparable to that found in such turbulent boundary layer data. Response and fatigue life estimates are found to be insensitive to the loading distribution, with the minor exception of cases involving plastic deformation. In contrast, the fatigue life estimate was found to be highly affected by a different type of non-Gaussian loading having bursts of high excursion peaks.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

An empirical analysis of the distribution of the duration of overshoots in a stationary gaussian stochastic process

This analysis utilizes computer simulation and statistical estimation. Realizations of stationary gaussian stochastic processes with selected autocorrelation functions are computer simulated. Analysis of the simulated data revealed that the mean and the variance of a process were functionally dependent upon the autocorrelation parameter and crossing level. Using predicted values for the mean and standard deviation, by the method of moments, the distribution parameters was estimated. Thus, given the autocorrelation parameter, crossing level, mean, and standard deviation of a process, the probability of exceeding the crossing level for a particular length of time was calculated.

Parrish, R. S.↗

A Gaussian Process-Based extended Goldak heat source model for finite element simulation of laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process

In this study, laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) is a key enabling technology to manufacture highly complex and integrated metallic structures. In L-PBF AM process, the melting of the metal powders and the layers underneath can be governed by either “conduction mode” or “keyhole mode”, with the keyhole mode reportedly leading to porosity and decreased strength and ductility by many studies. In part scale simulations, finite element (FE) model is often used to study the temperature distribution during printing and to predict the residual stress, where a volumetric heat flux with a Gaussian or a double ellipsoidal (Goldak) distribution is often applied as the laser heat source. However, the above heat source models can only capture the melt pool shape in the conduction mode, and fail to capture the transition to keyhole melting mode when the process parameters change. To overcome this inaccuracy, an extended Goldak heat source model is proposed by introducing a laser penetration term as a function of laser parameters obtained from a Gaussian-Process (GP) model. The model is validated by “2D pad” AlSi10Mg L-PBF experiments under a wide range of laser power, scan speed, and laser focus offset, and the results show the model successfully captures the measured melt pool shape in all conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of multicorrelated random processes using the FFT algorithm

A technique for the digital simulation of multicorrelated Gaussian random processes is described. This technique is based upon generating discrete frequency functions which correspond to the Fourier transform of the desired random processes, and then using the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm to obtain the actual random processes. The main advantage of this method of simulation over other methods is computation time; it appears to be more than an order of magnitude faster than present methods of simulation. One of the main uses of multicorrelated simulated random processes is in solving nonlinear random vibration problems by numerical integration of the governing differential equations. The response of a nonlinear string to a distributed noise input is presented as an example.

Wittig, L. E.↗

Microwave background fluctuations due to the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects in pancakes

We calculate distortions in the microwave background radiation from the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, produced by hot gas in large (approximately 100 Mpc) pancakes. The large-scale distribution of the pancakes is taken to be that of a Voronoi foam. Fluctuations for this scenario are estimated to be on the order of delta T/T is approximately 10(exp -5). Using computer simulations, we produce several 32 deg x 32 deg images with 0.25 deg resolution. These images show characteristic linear features produced when a pancake is viewed nearly edge-on. By calculating the two-point and the degenerate three-point correlation functions, we are able to statistically detect such non-Gaussian features even in the presence of a relatively large amount of Gaussian noise. The degenerate three-point correlation function is found to be particularly useful since it is insensitive to correlated Gaussian noise. We also smooth our data over a 7 deg Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) Gaussian window to simulate the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) observations. We find that under such low-resolution conditions, the features are highly suppressed.

Subbarao, M. U.↗

Exploring the non-Gaussianity of the cosmic infrared background and its weak gravitational lensing

ABSTRACT Gravitational lensing deflects the paths of photons, altering the statistics of cosmic backgrounds and distorting their information content. We take the cosmic infrared background (CIB), which provides plentiful information about galaxy formation and evolution, as an example to probe the effect of lensing on non-Gaussian statistics. Using the Websky simulations, we first quantify the non-Gaussianity of the CIB, revealing additional detail on top of its well-measured power spectrum. To achieve this, we use needlet-like multipole-band filters to calculate the variance and higher-point correlations. Using our simulations, we show the two-, three- and four-point spectra, and compare our calculated power spectra and bispectra to Planck values. We then lens the CIB, shell-by-shell with corresponding convergence maps, to capture the broad redshift extent of both the CIB and its lensing convergence. The lensing of the CIB changes the three- and four-point functions by a few tens of per cent at large scales, unlike with the power spectrum, which changes by less than two per cent. We expand our analyses to encompass the full intensity probability distribution functions (PDFs) involving all n-point correlations as a function of scale. In particular, we use the relative entropy between lensed and unlensed PDFs to create a spectrum of templates that can allow estimation of lensing. The underlying CIB model is missing the important role of star bursting, which we test by adding a stochastic lognormal term to the intensity distributions. The novel aspects of our filtering and lensing pipeline should prove useful for any radiant background, including line intensity maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

QMMM 2023: A program for combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical modeling and simulations

Combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical (QM/MM) methods play an important role in multiscale modeling and simulations. QMMM 2023 is a general-purpose program for single-point calculations, geometry optimizations, transition-state optimizations, and molecular dynamics (MD) at the QM/MM level. It calls a QM package and an MM package to perform the required single-level calculations and combines them into a QM/MM energy by a variety of schemes. QMMM 2023 supports GAMESS-US, Gaussian, and ORCA as QM packages and Tinker as the MM package. Four types of treatments are available for embedding the QM subsystem in the MM environment: mechanical embedding with gas-phase calculations of the QM region, electronic embedding that allows polarization of the QM region by the MM environment, polarizable embedding for mutual polarization of the QM and MM regions, and flexible embedding for both mutual polarization and partial charge transfer between the QM and MM regions. Boundaries between QM and MM regions that pass through covalent bonds can be treated by several methods, including the redistributed charge (RC) scheme, redistributed charge and dipole (RCD) scheme, balanced-RC scheme, balanced-RCD scheme, screened charge scheme that takes account of charge penetration effects, and smeared charge scheme that delocalizes the MM charges near the QM–MM boundary. Geometry optimization can be done using the optimizer implemented in QMMM 2023 or the Berny optimizer in Gaussian through external calls to Gaussian. Molecular dynamics simulations can be performed at the pure-MM level, pure-QM level, fixed-partitioning QM/MM level, and adaptive-partitioning QM/MM level. As a result, the adaptive-partitioning treatments permit on-the-fly relocation of the QM–MM boundary by dynamically reclassifying atoms or groups into the QM or MM subsystems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Morphological analysis of the polarized synchrotron emission with WMAP and Planck

The bright polarized synchrotron emission, away from the Galactic plane, originates mostly from filamentary structures. We implement a filament finder algorithm which allows the detection of bright elongated structures in polarized intensity maps. We analyse the sky at 23 and 30 GHz as observed respectively by WMAP and Planck. We identify 19 filaments, 13 of which have been previously observed. For each filament, we study the polarization fraction, finding values typically larger than for the areas outside the filaments, excluding the Galactic plane, and a fraction of about 30% is reached in two filaments. We study the polarization spectral indices of the filaments, and find a spectral index consistent with the values found in previous analysis (about -3.1) for more diffuse regions. Decomposing the polarization signals into the E and B families, we find that most of the filaments are detected in P E , but not in P B . We then focus on understanding the statistical properties of the diffuse regions of the synchrotron emission at 23 GHz. Using Minkowski functionals and tensors, we analyse the non-Gaussianity and statistical isotropy of the polarized intensity maps. For a sky coverage corresponding to 80% of the fainter emission, and on scales smaller than 6 degrees (ℓ > 30), the deviations from Gaussianity and isotropy are significantly higher than 3σ. The level of deviation decreases for smaller scales, however, it remains significantly high for the lowest analised scale (~ 1.5°). When 60% sky coverage is analysed, we find that the deviations never exceed 3σ. Finally, we present a simple data-driven model to generate non-Gaussian and anisotropic simulations of the synchrotron polarized emission. The simulations are fitted in order to match the spectral and statistical properties of the faintest 80% sky coverage of the data maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Weighted FFT estimators for 1D and 3D correlations of the Lyman- α forest

Correlations in the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest, both as a function of line of sight separation (1D) and 3D separation, provide a unique window to the distribution of matter at redshifts not accessible by current galaxy surveys. While optimal quadratic estimators have been used to measure 1D correlations, they are computationally expensive and difficult to extend to 3D analyses. On the other hand, estimators based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) are significantly faster, but are affected by missing data in the spectra (masked pixels) and so far have not used pixel weights to reduce the uncertainties in the measurement. In this publication we describe how to compute the window matrix that enables forward-modelling the impact of masked pixels and weights on the FFT-based estimators. Here, we use Gaussian and hydrodynamical simulations with artificially masked pixels to validate the method on the measurement of 1D correlations. Finally, we show that the formalism can be extended to model the impact on 3D correlations, in particular on the cross-spectrum, the correlation of 1D Fourier modes as a function of transverse separation. This work will enable more precise clustering measurements with the Lyα forest dataset recently collected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

Lokken, Martine [Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spai↗

Normalizing flows for domain adaptation when identifying Λ hyperon events

Here this study focuses on the application of a normalizing flow as a method of domain adaptation when classifying physics data. Normalizing flows offer a way to transform data points between two different distributions. The present study investigates a novel method of transforming latent representations of physics data to a normal distribution and then to a physics distribution again. The final distribution models a simulated distribution. After being transformed, the data can be classified by a neural network trained on labeled simulation data. The present study succeeds in training two normalizing flows that can transform between data (or simulation) and a Gaussian distribution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗