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Gaussian Mixture Model-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter for Machine Parameter Calibration

This letter proposes a novel Gaussian mixture model-based ensemble Kalman filter (GMM-EnKF) approach to the accurate calibration of the parameters of machine dynamic models. This approach aims to overcome some practical challenges of machine parameter calibration. Results show the proposed approach can provide high-accuracy calibrated parameters even when the machine operates under unbalanced network conditions and the measurement noises are non-Gaussian.

Fan, Rui↗

3D/3D registration of coronary CTA and biplane XA reconstructions for improved image guidance

Purpose: The authors aim to improve image guidance during percutaneous coronary interventions of chronic total occlusions (CTO) by providing information obtained from computed tomography angiography (CTA) to the cardiac interventionist. To this end, the authors investigate a method to register a 3D CTA model to biplane reconstructions. Methods: The authors developed a method for registering preoperative coronary CTA with intraoperative biplane x-ray angiography (XA) images via 3D models of the coronary arteries. The models are extracted from the CTA and biplane XA images, and are temporally aligned based on CTA reconstruction phase and XA ECG signals. Rigid spatial alignment is achieved with a robust probabilistic point set registration approach using Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). This approach is extended by including orientation in the Gaussian mixtures and by weighting bifurcation points. The method is evaluated on retrospectively acquired coronary CTA datasets of 23 CTO patients for which biplane XA images are available. Results: The Gaussian mixture model approach achieved a median registration accuracy of 1.7 mm. The extended GMM approach including orientation was not significantly different (P > 0.1) but did improve robustness with regards to the initialization of the 3D models. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the GMM approach can effectively be applied to register CTA to biplane XA images for the purpose of improving image guidance in percutaneous coronary interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-130: Automating Liver Segmentation Via Combined Global and Local Optimization

Purpose: The aim of this work is to develop a robust algorithm for accurate segmentation of liver with special attention paid to the problems with fuzzy edges and tumor. Methods: 200 CT images were collected from radiotherapy treatment planning system. 150 datasets are selected as the panel data for shape dictionary and parameters estimation. The remaining 50 datasets were used as test images. In our study liver segmentation was formulated as optimization process of implicit function. The liver region was optimized via local and global optimization during iterations. Our method consists five steps: 1)The livers from the panel data were segmented manually by physicians, and then We estimated the parameters of GMM (Gaussian mixture model) and MRF (Markov random field). Shape dictionary was built by utilizing the 3D liver shapes. 2)The outlines of chest and abdomen were located according to rib structure in the input images, and the liver region was initialized based on GMM. 3)The liver shape for each 2D slice was adjusted using MRF within the neighborhood of liver edge for local optimization. 4)The 3D liver shape was corrected by employing SSR (sparse shape representation) based on liver shape dictionary for global optimization. Furthermore, H-PSO(Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization) was employed to solve the SSR equation. 5)The corrected 3D liver was divided into 2D slices as input data of the third step. The iteration was repeated within the local optimization and global optimization until it satisfied the suspension conditions (maximum iterations and changing rate). Results: The experiments indicated that our method performed well even for the CT images with fuzzy edge and tumors. Comparing with physician delineated results, the segmentation accuracy with the 50 test datasets (VOE, volume overlap percentage) was on average 91%–95%. Conclusion: The proposed automatic segmentation method provides a sensible technique for segmentation of CT images. This work is supported by NIH/NIBIB (1R01-EB016777), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.61471226 and No.61201441), Research funding from Shandong Province (No.BS2012DX038 and No.J12LN23), and Research funding from Jinan City (No.201401221 and No.20120109)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

FY25 Mid-Year Report: FNCL Enhancements Implementation

During the first half of FY25 the FNCL team has made consistent progress toward the completion of our project goals. The FNCL prototype panel design has been successfully applied to a fully instrumented 3-panel system which is actively under construction. The FNCL Demonstrator System contains solid scintillators instrumented with SiPMs, which operate on an updated CAEN digitizer, requires no high-voltage, and has a smaller overall footprint. The onboard software will include the LLNL-developed GMM-PSD signal processing. Later this year the system will be experimentally tested alongside the baseline FNCL instrument at LLNLs ISSA facility. In addition to a full systems test, the performance of a DD generator for active interrogation measurements compared to the standard AmLi source will be established for both systems. The data collected at the ISSA facility will be used to experimentally validate the FNCL-Fast Isotopic Fuel Assay’s (FIFA) capability to measure U-235 loading and to predict gadolinium poison content with passive interrogation. The FNCL-FIFA modal was benchmarked with simulation-based data and a user-friendly GUI was added earlier this year. Three separate codes have been submitted to the LLNL ESW system for review prior to their transfers. These include the Predictive Modeling Response toolkit, GMM-PSD firmware beta version, and the FNCL-FIFA analysis package with GUI and user documentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cluster Sampling Filters for Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation

This paper presents a fully non-Gaussian filter for sequential data assimilation. The filter is named the “cluster sampling filter”, and works by directly sampling the posterior distribution following a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) approach, while the prior distribution is approximated using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Specifically, a clustering step is introduced after the forecast phase of the filter, and the prior density function is estimated by fitting a GMM to the prior ensemble. Using the data likelihood function, the posterior density is then formulated as a mixture density, and is sampled following an MCMC approach. Four versions of the proposed filter, namely C ℓ MCMC , C ℓ HMC , MC- C ℓ HMC , and MC- C ℓ HMC are presented. C ℓ MCMC uses a Gaussian proposal density to sample the posterior, and C ℓ HMC is an extension to the Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) sampling filter. MC- C ℓ MCMC and MC- C ℓ HMC are multi-chain versions of the cluster sampling filters C ℓ MCMC and C ℓ HMC respectively. The multi-chain versions are proposed to guarantee that samples are taken from the vicinities of all probability modes of the formulated posterior. The new methodologies are tested using a simple one-dimensional example, and a quasi-geostrophic (QG) model with double-gyre wind forcing and bi-harmonic friction. Here, numerical results demonstrate the usefulness of using GMMs to relax the Gaussian prior assumption especially in the HMC filtering paradigm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Anomaly Detection in Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Trajectories Using LSTM Autoencoder and Gaussian Mixture Model

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) technology has the potential to transform the transportation system. Although these new technologies have many advantages, the implementation raises significant concerns regarding safety, security, and privacy. Anomalies in sensor data caused by errors or cyberattacks can cause severe accidents. To address the issue, this study proposed an innovative anomaly detection algorithm, namely the LSTM Autoencoder with Gaussian Mixture Model (LAGMM). This model supports anomalous CAV trajectory detection in the real-time leveraging communication capabilities of CAV sensors. The LSTM Autoencoder is applied to generate low-rank representations and reconstruct errors for each input data point, while the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is employed for its strength in density estimation. The proposed model was jointly optimized for the LSTM Autoencoder and GMM simultaneously. The study utilizes realistic CAV data from a platooning experiment conducted for Cooperative Automated Research Mobility Applications (CARMAs). The experiment findings indicate that the proposed LAGMM approach enhances detection accuracy by 3% and precision by 6.4% compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods, suggesting a significant improvement in the field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Balancing aggregation and smoothing errors in inverse models

Inverse models use observations of a system (observation vector) to quantify the variables driving that system (state vector) by statistical optimization. When the observation vector is large, such as with satellite data, selecting a suitable dimension for the state vector is a challenge. A state vector that is too large cannot be effectively constrained by the observations, leading to smoothing error. However, reducing the dimension of the state vector leads to aggregation error as prior relationships between state vector elements are imposed rather than optimized. Here we present a method for quantifying aggregation and smoothing errors as a function of state vector dimension, so that a suitable dimension can be selected by minimizing the combined error. Reducing the state vector within the aggregation error constraints can have the added advantage of enabling analytical solution to the inverse problem with full error characterization. We compare three methods for reducing the dimension of the state vector from its native resolution: (1) merging adjacent elements (grid coarsening), (2) clustering with principal component analysis (PCA), and (3) applying a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with Gaussian pdfs as state vector elements on which the native-resolution state vector elements are projected using radial basis functions (RBFs). The GMM method leads to somewhat lower aggregation error than the other methods, but more importantly it retains resolution of major local features in the state vector while smoothing weak and broad features.

Turner, A. J.↗

Transition flight control room automation

The Workstation Prototype Laboratory is currently working on a number of projects which can have a direct impact on ground operations automation. These projects include: (1) The fuel cell monitoring system (FCMS), which will monitor and detect problems with the fuel cells on the shuttle. FCMS will use a combination of rules (forward/backward) and multithreaded procedures, which run concurrently with the rules, to implement the malfunction algorithms of the EGIL flight controllers. The combination of rule-based reasoning and procedural reasoning allows us to more easily map the malfunction algorithms into a real-time system implementation. (2) A graphical computation language (AGCOMPL) is an experimental prototype to determine the benefits and drawbacks of using a graphical language to design computations (algorithms) to work on shuttle or space station telemetry and trajectory data. (3) The design of a system will allow a model of an electrical system, including telemetry sensors, to be configured on the screen graphically using previously defined electrical icons. This electrical model would then be used to generate rules and procedures for detecting malfunctions in the electrical components of the model. (4) A generic message management (GMM) system is being designed for real-time applications as a message management system which sends advisory messages to a user. The primary purpose of GMM is to reduce the risk of overloading a user with information when multiple failures occur and to assist the developer in the devising an explanation facility. The emphasis of our work is to develop practical tools and techniques, including identification of appropriate software tools to support research, application, and tool building activities, while determining the feasibility of a given approach.

Welborn, Curtis Ray↗

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗

Particle Filtering for Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Sensor Networks

A novel technique has been developed for anomaly detection of rocket engine test stand (RETS) data. The objective was to develop a system that postprocesses a csv file containing the sensor readings and activities (time-series) from a rocket engine test, and detects any anomalies that might have occurred during the test. The output consists of the names of the sensors that show anomalous behavior, and the start and end time of each anomaly. In order to reduce the involvement of domain experts significantly, several data-driven approaches have been proposed where models are automatically acquired from the data, thus bypassing the cost and effort of building system models. Many supervised learning methods can efficiently learn operational and fault models, given large amounts of both nominal and fault data. However, for domains such as RETS data, the amount of anomalous data that is actually available is relatively small, making most supervised learning methods rather ineffective, and in general met with limited success in anomaly detection. The fundamental problem with existing approaches is that they assume that the data are iid, i.e., independent and identically distributed, which is violated in typical RETS data. None of these techniques naturally exploit the temporal information inherent in time series data from the sensor networks. There are correlations among the sensor readings, not only at the same time, but also across time. However, these approaches have not explicitly identified and exploited such correlations. Given these limitations of model-free methods, there has been renewed interest in model-based methods, specifically graphical methods that explicitly reason temporally. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in a Linear Dynamic System approach assumes that the multi-dimensional test data is a mixture of multi-variate Gaussians, and fits a given number of Gaussian clusters with the help of the wellknown Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters thus learned are used for calculating the joint distribution of the observations. However, this GMM assumption is essentially an approximation and signals the potential viability of non-parametric density estimators. This is the key idea underlying the new approach.

Solano, Wanda↗

Considerations When Building Thermal Models that Require Conversion Between Formats

At times, it is inevitable to require conversion of thermal models from one software format to another. This most often occurs for missions with international partners where not all parties utilize the same software packages for thermal analysis. Mandating a single tool for all parties is one possible solution, but this approach can introduce problems if significant effort is required to overcome inexperience with the designated tool and may result in difficulty meeting analysis schedule requirements. Alternatively, allowing all parties to use their own familiar tools minimizes the impact to analysis schedules but does introduce the need to convert the models later to a common format for analysis at a higher level of assembly. External conversion tools and formats have been developed through the years to aid in this process, but have had limited success in fully converting models seamlessly. Having a basic familiarity with tool capabilities on both sides of the conversion process allows for models to be built in a manner to better facilitate conversion by avoiding features and capabilities which are unsupported by the destination tool or for which no workarounds exist. Also, the effort to convert a model is often neglected when developing the schedules for analysis at the higher assembly levels; delivery of models preconditioned for convertibility minimizes the schedule risk. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on modeling techniques to avoid when developing Geometrical Math Models (GMM) and Thermal Math Models (TMM) when conversion is required. The recommendations are based on GMM conversion experiences between TSS/ThermalDesktop/ESARAD and TMM conversions between SINDA-FLUINT/ESATAN.

Modeling↗

Passive acoustic leak detection for sodium cooled fast reactors using hidden Markov models

Acoustic leak detection for steam generators of sodium fast reactors have been an active research topic since the early 1970's and several methods have been tested over the years. Inspired by its success in the field of automatic speech recognition, we here apply hidden Markov models (HMM) in combination with Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to the problem. To achieve this, we propose a new feature calculation scheme, based on the temporal evolution of the power spectral density (PSD) of the signal. Using acoustic signals recorded during steam/water injection experiments done at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), the proposed method is tested. We perform parametric studies on the HMM+GMM model size and demonstrate that the proposed method a) performs well without a priori knowledge of injection noise, b) can incorporate several noise models and c) has an output distribution that simplifies false alarm rate control. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Likelihood Maximization and Moment Matching in Low SNR Gaussian Mixture Models

We derive an asymptotic expansion for the log-likelihood of Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with equal covariance matrices in the low signal-to-noise regime. The expansion reveals an intimate connection between two types of algorithms for parameter estimation: the method of moments and likelihood optimizing algorithms such as Expectation-Maximization (EM). We show that likelihood optimization in the low SNR regime reduces to a sequence of least squares optimization problems that match the moments of the estimate to the ground truth moments one by one. This connection is a stepping stone towards the analysis of EM and maximum likelihood estimation in a wide range of models. A motivating application for the study of low SNR mixture models is cryo-electron microscopy data, which can be modeled as a GMM with algebraic constraints imposed on the mixture centers. We discuss the application of our expansion to algebraically constrained GMMs, among other example models of interest. © 2022 The Authors. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Subacute safety assessment of recombinant Lactococcus lactis on the gut microbiota of male Sprague–Dawley rats

Abstract BACKGROUND Lactococcus lactis strain pGSMT/MG1363 is a genetically modified microorganism (GMM) that constitutively expresses human metallothionein‐I fusion protein to combine with intracellular lead. Unlike traditional probiotics, pGSMT/MG1363 lacks a history of safe use in food. Administration of microorganism could influence the gut microbial community and consequently confer health benefits or cause disadvantages to the host. To date, little has been done to assess the influence of recombinant strain pGSMT/MG1363 on the stability of gut microbiota. RESULTS Liver, testis and kidney sections of male Sprague–Dawley rats orally administered pGSMT/MG1363 for 6 weeks showed normal structure and no pathological damage. There were no adverse effects on the analyzed serum biochemical parameters between the pGSMT/MG1363 group and the MG1363 group. Principal coordinate analysis showed that, compared with the MG1363 group, the 6‐week‐old fecal gut microbiota of rats fed with pGSMT/MG1363 was not significantly different (Adonis, P = 0.802). pGSMT/MG1363 treatment for 6 weeks did not significantly change the relative abundance of gut microbiota at the phylum and genus levels in comparison with MG1363 treatment. CONCLUSION Compared to the non‐GM strain MG1363 group, administration of the recombinant strain pGSMT/MG1363 for 6 weeks showed no adverse effects on the analyzed physiological parameters and gut microbial compositions of male Sprague–Dawley rats. The results suggested that, in terms of gut microbiota stability, pGSMT/MG1363 could be considered as safe as MG1363, at least for short‐term intake. Further toxicological evaluations still need to be considered before drawing a definite conclusion concerning the safe use of pGSMT/MG1363. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Chen, Guowei↗

Automatic detection of small bowel tumors in wireless capsule endoscopy images using ensemble learning

Purpose Wireless Capsule Endoscopy (WCE) is a minimally invasive diagnosis tool for lesion detection in the gastrointestinal tract, reaching places where conventional endoscopy is unable to. However, the significant amount of acquired data leads to difficulties in the diagnosis by the physicians; which can be eased with computer assistance. This paper addresses a method for the automatic detection of tumors in WCE by using a two‐step based procedure: region of interest selection and classification. Methods The first step aims to separate abnormal from normal tissue by using automatic segmentation based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). A modified version of the Anderson method for convergence acceleration of the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed. The proposed features for both segmentation and classification are based on the CIELab color space, as a way of bypassing lightness variations, where the L component is discarded. Tissue variability among subjects, light inhomogeneities and even intensity differences among different devices can be overcome by using simultaneously features from both regions. In the second step, an ensemble system with partition of the training data with a new training scheme is proposed. At this stage, the gating network is trained after the experts have been trained decoupling the joint maximization of both modules. The partition module is also used at the test step, leading the incoming data to the most likely expert allowing incremental adaptation by preserving data diversity. Results This algorithm outperforms others based on texture features selected from Wavelets and Curvelets transforms, classified by a regular support vector machine (SVM) in more than 5%. Conclusions This work shows that simpler features can outperform more elaborate ones if appropriately designed. In the current case, luminance was discarded to cope with saturated tissue, facilitating the color perception. Ensemble systems remain an open research field. In the current case, changes in both topology and training strategy have led to significant performance improvements. A system with this level of performance can be used in current clinical practice.

Vieira, Pedro M.↗

Gaussian mixture models as automated particle classifiers for fast neutron detectors

Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) is the task of classifying electronic pulse shapes for different particle types such as gamma rays and fast neutrons interacting in scintillators and read out by photo sensitive detectors. This field has been limited in its adoption of techniques found in the statistical learning community. Methods initially employed in the 1960s for analog electronic circuitry persist in the current PSD literature describing operations performed on digitized pulses, which are amenable to statistical rigor. Despite vast amounts of data collected at low energy levels, traditional PSD methods are unable to discriminate particles below a certain threshold. As such, in this work, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used as a clustering technique for fast neutron detection in the absence of labeled data. GMMs yield improvements spanning the energy spectrum in a desirably efficient, unsupervised fashion. An extension, the Dirichlet Process GMM, provides further flexibility and classification improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗