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Microflaring in Low-Lying Core Fields and Extended Coronal Heating in the Quiet Sun

We have previously reported analyses of Yohkoh SXT data examining the relationship between the heating of extended coronal loops (both within and stemming from active regions) and microflaring in core fields lying along neutral lines near their footpoints (J. G. Porter, D. A. Falconer, and R. L. Moore 1998, in Solar Jets and Coronal Plumes, ed. T. Guyenne, ESA SP-421, and references therein). We found a surprisingly poor correlation of intensity variations in the extended loops with individual microflares in the compact heated areas at their feet, despite considerable circumstancial evidence linking the heating processes in these regions. Now, a study of Fe XII image sequences from SOHO EIT show that similar associations of core field structures with the footpoints of very extended coronal features can be found in the quiet Sun. The morphology is consistent with the finding of Wang et al. (1997, ApJ 484, L75) that polar plumes are rooted at sites of mixed polarity in the magnetic network. We find that the upstairs/downstairs intensity variations often follow the trend, identified in the active region observations, of a weak correspondence. Apparently much of the coronal heating in the extended loops is driven by a type of core field magnetic activity that is "cooler" than the events having the coronal signature of microflares, i.e., activity that results in little heating within the core fields themselves. This work was funded by the Solar Physics Branch of NASA's Office of Space Science through the SR&T Program and the SEC Guest Investigator Program.

Porter, Jason G.↗

Large-Scale Coronal Heating from the Solar Magnetic Network

In Fe 12 images from SOHO/EIT, the quiet solar corona shows structure on scales ranging from sub-supergranular (i.e., bright points and coronal network) to multi- supergranular. In Falconer et al 1998 (Ap.J., 501, 386) we suppressed the large-scale background and found that the network-scale features are predominantly rooted in the magnetic network lanes at the boundaries of the supergranules. The emission of the coronal network and bright points contribute only about 5% of the entire quiet solar coronal Fe MI emission. Here we investigate the large-scale corona, the supergranular and larger-scale structure that we had previously treated as a background, and that emits 95% of the total Fe XII emission. We compare the dim and bright halves of the large- scale corona and find that the bright half is 1.5 times brighter than the dim half, has an order of magnitude greater area of bright point coverage, has three times brighter coronal network, and has about 1.5 times more magnetic flux than the dim half These results suggest that the brightness of the large-scale corona is more closely related to the large- scale total magnetic flux than to bright point activity. We conclude that in the quiet sun: (1) Magnetic flux is modulated (concentrated/diluted) on size scales larger than supergranules. (2) The large-scale enhanced magnetic flux gives an enhanced, more active, magnetic network and an increased incidence of network bright point formation. (3) The heating of the large-scale corona is dominated by more widespread, but weaker, network activity than that which heats the bright points. This work was funded by the Solar Physics Branch of NASA's office of Space Science through the SR&T Program and the SEC Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, David A.↗

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO/EIT coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms (Falconer et al 1998, ApJ, 501, 386-396), we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the e-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approx. 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (>approx.30,000 km). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing fines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, Fisher et A (1998, ApJ, 508, 985-998) found that the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results, together with the result of Fisher et al (1999), suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program and the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

The Maximum Free Magnetic Energy Allowed in a Solar Active Region

Two whole-active-region magnetic quantities that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram are (sup L) WL(sub SG), a gauge of the total free energy in an active region's magnetic field, and sup L(sub theta), a measure of the active region's total magnetic flux. From these two quantities measured from 1865 SOHO/MDI magnetograms that tracked 44 sunspot active regions across the 0.5 R(sub Sun) central disk, together with each active region's observed production of CMEs, X flares, and M flares, Falconer et al (2009, ApJ, submitted) found that (1) active regions have a maximum attainable free magnetic energy that increases with the magnetic size (sup L) (sub theta) of the active region, (2) in (Log (sup L)WL(sub SG), Log(sup L) theta) space, CME/flare-productive active regions are concentrated in a straight-line main sequence along which the free magnetic energy is near its upper limit, and (3) X and M flares are restricted to large active regions. Here, from (a) these results, (b) the observation that even the greatest X flares produce at most only subtle changes in active region magnetograms, and (c) measurements from MSFC vector magnetograms and from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms showing that practically all sunspot active regions have nearly the same area-averaged magnetic field strength: =- theta/A approximately equal to 300 G, where theta is the active region's total photospheric flux of field stronger than 100 G and A is the area of that flux, we infer that (1) the maximum allowed ratio of an active region's free magnetic energy to its potential-field energy is ~1, and (2) any one CME/flare eruption releases no more than a small fraction (less than ~10%) of the active region's free magnetic energy. This work was funded by NASA's Heliophysics Division and NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

Falconer, David↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

The remote measurement of trace atmospheric species by correlation interferometry. I - Carbon monoxide and methane

A correlation interferometer has been developed for the measurement of carbon monoxide and methane at 2.35 micrometers in the troposphere and in the stratosphere. This instrument has been tested in laboratory tests, solar-looking outdoor tests, and downward-looking airplane-based tests. The aircraft tests were flown on a Falcon fanjet provided by The Canada Centre for Remote Sensing over both polluted and unpolluted regions of North America. The results of these various tests are discussed. Based on the results obtained for carbon monoxide and methane, a study was undertaken to investigate the feasibility of measuring other atmospheric trace species by correlation interferometry. Results of the feasibility study for carbon dioxide, water vapor, ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and several hydrocarbons are presented.

Goldstein, H. W.↗

Plant cover, soil temperature, freeze, water stress, and evapotranspiration conditions

The author has identified the following significant results. HCMM day/night coverage 12 hours apart cannot be obtained at 26 deg N latitude; nor have any pairs 36 hours apart been obtained. A day-IR scene and a night scene for two different dates were analyzed. A profile across the test site for the same latitude shows that the two profiles are near mirror images of each other over land surfaces and that the temperature of two large water bodies, Falcon Reservoir and the Gulf of Mexico, are nearly identical on two dates. During the time interval between overpasses, the vegetative cover remained static due to winter dormancy. The data suggest that day/night temperature differences measured weeks apart may yield meaningful information about the contrast between daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures for a given site.

Wiegand, C. L.↗

Midair collisions - The accidents, the systems, and the Realpolitik

Two midair collisions occurring in 1978 are described, and the air traffic control system and procedures in use at the time, human factors implications and political consequences of the accidents are examined. The first collision occurred in Memphis and involved a Falcon jet and a Cessna 150 in a situation in which the controllers handling each aircraft were not aware of the presence of the other aircraft until it was too late. The second occurred in San Diego four months later, when a Boeing 727 on a visual approach struck a Cessna 172 from the rear. Following the San Diego collision there arose a great deal of investigative activity, resulting in suggestions for tighter control on visual flight rules aircraft and the expansion of positive control airspace. These issues then led to a political battle involving general aviation, the FAA and the Congress. It is argued, however, that the collisions were in fact system-induced errors resulting from an air traffic control system which emphasizes airspace allocation and politics rather than the various human factors problems facing pilots and controllers.

Wiener, E. L.↗

Icing tunnel tests of Electro-Impulse De-Icing of an engine inlet and high-speed wings

A brief review is given of four earlier tests in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel and of flight tests in NASA's Icing Research Aircraft and in a Cessna 206 airplane. Details are given of recent icing tunnel tests of thicker-skinned wings, a Gates Learjet, a composite leading edge, and a Boeing 767, and of a Falcon Fanjet engine inlet. These were tested at speeds from 87 to 220 knots, air temperatures from -2 to -15 C, LWC values of 0.6 to 2.4 grams/cu meter, and median droplet diameters from 12 to 20 microns. Energy requirements are reported, as well as conclusions from comparisons of several Electro-Impulse De-Icing coil system designs. Fundamental studies of the structural dynamics and ice shedding of a 12.7 cm (5 inch) diameter semicylinder are described. Some potential problem areas are discussed: fatigue of skin and coil mountings, system weight and cost, electro-magnetic interference and noise.

Zumwalt, G. W.↗

Electro-impulse de-icing of a turbofan engine inlet

The application of electromagnetic impulse deicing (EIDI) systems to turbofan engine inlets on business aircraft has been investigated experimentally. The tests were performed in the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA's Lewis Research Center. The deicing system testbed was a Falcon Fanjet 20 engine nacelle. The effectiveness of various deicing coil configurations and mount designs were compared, and design parameters were developed specifically for EIDI systems in turbofan engines. Flight tests were also carried out at altitudes in the range 3000-6000 ft corresponding to a temperature range of -3 to -8 C. It is shown that the ice particles removed from the engine inlet by the deicing system were small enough for the engine to ingest. Tentative design specifications are given with respect to the optimum coil configuration, and operating power of a EIDI production candidate.

Zumwalt, G. W.↗

Decomposition of CO2 molecules due to auroral X-rays

It has been reported by SEKIHARA (1981), that the circumpolar measurement from a commercial airliner reported by PRATT and FALCONER (1979) was subjected to a strong influence of a geomagnetic storm, specifically at the beginning stage through the North Pole. The main point of interest was the increase of CO concentration by the order of 10 ppb that took place simultaneously with a temperature decrease of several degrees, which was regarded as a result of enhanced cooling to space due to CO2 decomposition. Later inspection of the original magnetogram of eleven auroral zone stations revealed that the observation started 13 hours after the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, which lasted for 22 hours. A quantitative estimation is made of CO2 decomposition due to auroral X-rays that should take place during the degradation of photoelectrons injected into the lower stratospheres.

Sekihara, K.↗