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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Issue Summary of INL Phase IV Transient Results for IAEA CRP on HTGR UAM Benchmark

This report details the Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Code System (PHISICS)/Reactor Excursions and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5)-3D results obtained for the transient core exercises defined for Phase IV of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) uncertainty analysis in modeling (UAM). The Phase III models and results are linked to the earlier Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE)/Sampler/New ESC-based Weighting Transport (NEWT) data generated for the lattice physics (lattice) stage Phase I of the CRP. The focus of this report is the Uncertainty/Sensitivity Assessment (U/SA) of the prismatic modular high-temperature gas cooled reactor (MHTGR)-350 design, and specifically for Exercises IV-1 and IV-2 of the benchmark: the Control Rod Withdrawal (CRW) and Pressurised Loss of Cooling (PLOFC) events. The statistical U/SA methodology is implemented and demonstrated using the RAVEN code, based on perturbed cross-section libraries obtained from the SCALE/Sampler sequence. Uncertainties in nuclear data (cross-sections and the average number of neutrons produced per fission, 235U[¯v ]) lead to standard deviations (uncertainties of one s) of approximately 0.5% in the core eigenvalues of the MHTGR-350 and core models. For the coupled neutronics/thermal fluid model, local power density uncertainties up to 3.6% were observed in the colder regions of the core, while the local maximum fuel temperature uncertainties reached 1.5% for the models that included thermal fluid uncertainties. The addition of thermal fluid uncertainties dominated the impacts of nuclear data uncertainties in all cases. The main contributors to uncertainties in the power density and fuel temperatures during the transients were uncertainties in the reactor operating conditions (total power, inlet mass flow rate and inlet gas temperature). Variations in the bypass flows did not have significant impact on any of the output variables. For the nuclear data uncertainties it was found that the 235U(¯v ) / 235U(¯v ) covariance produced the largest sensitivities in terms of its impact on the eigenvalue and peak reactor power. It was also observed that the impact of any nuclear data uncertainties on the maximum fuel temperature was much less significant that the impact on eigenvalue and power. Another important finding was that although the use of eight or more energy groups is recommended for best-estimate HTGR simulation, two-group models produced acceptable uncertainty and sensitivity results for most FOMs. Since the statistical U/SA methodology is computationally expensive, and most transient solver requirements will scale directly with the number of energy groups, two energy groups could be used by HTGR developers during the early stages of design when larger uncertainty margins can be tolerated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final Report on Predictive Analyses of PRD as Function of Anomalies

This report summarizes the work completed in FY-2024 to analyze the power reactivity decrement (PRD) concepts of the ARC-100 core. The PRD has been traditionally defined by the reactivity change from a hot zero power (HZP) to a particular power. Consequently, the PRD accounts for the core reactivity changes due to increase coolant temperature gradient axially and radially across the core, and increased fuel temperature. The coolant temperature gradient leads to sodium and structure density changes, to radial core expansion from assembly flowering and bowing (due to axial and radial temperature gradients within the assemblies), and to control rod driveline thermal expansion. The fuel temperature increase associated with coolant temperature and power increases leads to Doppler effect and axial thermal expansion. In this work, the normal operating Hot Full Power (HFP) state is the only power level of interest, so analyses focus on the PRD calculated from HZP to HFP. The PRD has been used to assess the reactor safety features asymptotically in unprotected accident scenarios, including the loss of heat sink (LOHS), loss of flow (LOF), and transient overpower (TOP) without scram. The PRD concept relies on the “global” reactivity coefficients A, B, and C that are estimated based on “individual” reactivity effects (Doppler, sodium density, etc.). The objectives of this work are: 1) to improve and verify the methodology used to calculate the ABC coefficients used in the PRD, 2) to assess if the PRD can be used to reliably identify abnormal events. This report fulfills the FY-2024 scope of WBS#1.15.8.3 activity, “ANL0120 – Predictive Analyses of PRD as function of deformation”. The PRD concept is described in Sections 2. Additional effort in refining the methodology for core bowing modeling is performed in Sections 3. Then, two verification exercises are proposed in Section 4 to benchmark these coefficients based on direct neutronic-only calculations and on dynamic core transient simulations. Finally, the PRD approach is assessed for the detection of several unexpected events, such as primary flow perturbation or improper fuel loading, in Section 5.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Primary System Thermal Fluids Analysis of a Horizontal Compact HTGR

The Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers, under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is collaborating on the thermal hydraulic design and analysis of the HC-HTGR reactor pressure vessel internals. The scope of this work includes ensuring the reactor is able to maintain maximum core temperatures below designated safety thresholds during normal operation, shutdown, and accident conditions. This report documents the preliminary thermal hydraulic analysis of the HC-HTGR core design performed with a 1D fluid-3D solid coupled model built using the System Analysis Module (SAM). This assembly level model was utilized to inform the core assembly design, predict the temperature distribution in the peak power assembly including the peak fuel temperature, coolant channel outlet temperatures, and graphite temperature gradients. A key result of this analysis was the determination that the peak fuel temperature remains below the safety threshold of 1250°C. Additionally, this model was used to assess the assembly coolant channel and bypass flow mass flow rate distribution. Following the assembly level analysis, attention turned to the development of a full core reduced order model to be used to predict the core wide coolant flow distribution and to model certain operational and accidental transients.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Fabrication of a Temperature-Controlled Fueled Molten Salt Capsule Irradiation Experiment

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is developing a Molten salt Research Temperature-controlled Irradiation (MRTI) experimental capsule for the Neutron Radiography (NRAD) reactor. The experiment is envisaged to be versatile and able to host a variety of salt-wall material combinations. The first test is designed to contain actinide-bearing chloride salt, which previously has not been subjected to a neutron field. The main objectives of the experiment are to produce irradiated salt samples for Post Irradiation Examination (PIE), to evaluate salt behavior under irradiation, and to test in-situ sensors/instrumentation. The final design for the experiment completed in 2022, and fabrication of the experiment is underway. The salt is double encapsulated providing insulation and redundancy in the case of leakage. A gas-gap between the inner capsule and the outer container enables tuning of thermal conduction to the NRAD coolant by altering its thickness and its gas-mixture. An inert gas mixture ratio in the gas-gap ensures the configurations reached a targeted average salt temperature of 600oC, while avoiding salt freezing or exceeding material limits. A resistive heater placed within a thermowell and controls the temperature of the experiment (both when the reactor is on or off). The selected configurations can contain over 10 cm3 of fuel-bearing chloride salt, which is sufficient for the purposes of the post-irradiation examination (PIE) and provides sufficient volume for two submerged thermocouple probes to monitor salt temperature. The capsule wall material is Inconel 625, and weld qualifications for the assembly have been developed. A glove-box laser weld technique was refined as part of this process to ensure a leak-tight assembly for the salt-bearing assembly and reduce the risks of impurities permeating into the salt. This work was supported through the INL Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) Program under DOE Idaho Operations Office Contract DE-AC07-05ID14517.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RELAP5-3D Simulation of PG-27 Test at the HTTF Facility

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a quarter scaled integral-effect test facility designed to examine the transient phenomena occurring in a Modular Hight Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (MHTGR). It is specifically designed to handle the pressurized and depressurized conduction cooldown (PCC and DCC) events. The PCC event is an accident scenario in which there is a loss of forced convection of the coolant through the system. However, the pressure boundary remains intact. This study focuses on the Reactor Excursions and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP)5-3D simulation of the PG-27 test (PCC phenomena) and the sensitivity of those simulations from the material properties and primary helium mass flow rate standpoint. The aim is to capture a reasonable one-dimensional picture of a three dimensional phenomena. The simulation will help in the code assessment and in understanding the various unknown parameters involved. The presented results will demonstrate the code is able to capture the detailed one-dimensional physics accurately. However, input parameters to the code (i.e., the primary mass flow rate, refractory material thermal conductivity, and heat capacity at elevated temperatures) impact the fuel temperature the most. This work will discuss the sensitivity of simulations to the identified input parameters.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Spectrum Molten Salt-Fueled Reactor Reference Plant Model

This report details a fully coupled neutronics thermal hydraulics reference plant model for a thermal spectrum molten salt-fueled reactor. The Multiphysics model is developed on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle available on the Idaho National Laboratory high-performance computer, which natively and seamlessly couples Griffin and Sam codes of the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) based applications. Griffin provides the reactor physics capabilities, k-eigenvalue, delayed neutron precursor concentrations, and transient solutions for stationary and flowing fuels. Sam provides the solution of mass, momentum, and energy conservation equations of the whole system with a set of system components for one-dimensional single-phase flow. The neutronics feedback model relies primarily on fuel and moderator temperatures, fuel salt density, and delayed neutron precursors distributions. This report presents our results for the coupled steady state core and an unprotected loss of flow event. Although this model is prototypical regarding capabilities in the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, its results are consistent with experimental data of the pump transient tests that were performed at zero power of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometric effects on grain growth in zirconium carbide coatings for high-temperature nuclear fuel

Interest in coated particle fuel for space nuclear propulsion (SNP) has expanded in recent years due to successful demonstrations of the resiliency of the coatings to extreme environments. For SNP applications, the coating layer for the particle design needs to be able to withstand exposure to high temperature hydrogen during operating conditions. ZrC has been proposed as a protective layer, however, it is important to understand the high temperature behavior to ensure adequate protection to this fuel. In this study, surrogate ZrC coated particles were heat treated at 1900 °C up to 300 min, to examine how the microstructure evolves when exposed to high temperature. Scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) were conducted to determine grain size and grain boundary character and orientation to determine the degree of change in the ZrC layer post heat treatment. Raman spectroscopy provided insight to understand how the as-fabricated stoichiometry of each sample contributed to the differences in grain growth behavior. Despite the as-fabricated samples showing a similar initial grain size and grain boundary character, the samples with a higher amount of excess carbon exhibited smaller grain areas and slower growth rates when exposed to 1900 °C. In conclusion, this investigation details the as-fabricated microstructure of the ZrC layer, specifically grain size, evolved under high temperature as this can impact the performance of the fuel under operating conditions.

EBSD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase Relationships in the Carbon–Titanium–Uranium System for Ultra-High Temperature Nuclear Fuels

Carbides of uranium have attracted interest as fuels for nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) to drive deep-space exploration owing to their attractive thermal and neutronic properties. Optimization of NTP technology, however, requires ultra-high temperature reactor environments to maximize the ratio of thrust to propellant to achieve peak rocket engine efficiency. Incorporation of transition metals into uranium carbides offers a pathway to increase the melting point of carbide fuels to address the operational challenges posed by NTP. Here, a thermodynamic model has been developed to examine the phase relationships in the C–Ti–U system at NTP conditions. Calculated phase relationships at ultra-high temperatures predict a stable (U, Ti)C solid solution. Additionally, experimental work on C–Ti–U synthesis via arc melting has been carried out, providing data on phase constitution and compositions that can be used to further refine the thermodynamic model that has been developed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics analysis of fuel Fragmentation, Relocation, and dispersal Susceptibility–Part 2: High-Burnup Steady-State operating and fuel performance conditions

The US nuclear industry is pursuing increased cycle lengths and increasing the peak rod-averaged burnup in an effort to increase the economic viability of the US nuclear fleet. Increasing burnup will afford economic viability by enabling utilities to optimize core designs to reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies per cycle and allow nuclear power plants to operate for a longer period of time. Longer operating periods will also decrease the number of outages experienced by a nuclear power plants and, therefore, offer utilities significant operational savings. However, extending the peak rod-averaged burnup beyond 62 GWd/tU results in operating fuel rods to higher burnup under higher power conditions. This operating regime is expected to result in higher fuel temperatures, fission gas release (FGR), and rod internal pressures (RIPs) that may challenge historical safety basis and affect high-burnup (HBU) experimental testing. In particular, these conditions directly affect fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) susceptibility, so understanding the pretransient operating conditions is critical for developing test plans that evaluate the FFRD and develop strategies to mitigate it. This paper evaluates the operating conditions and fuel performance of HBU (greater than62 GWd/tU rod average) fuel. Additionally, it investigates fuel performance sensitivities and discusses the effect on fuel performance. Here, this work used two codes. Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) was used to calculate steady-state power histories, identify HBU operating conditions using 10 different realistic HBU core designs, and down-select rods to a representative subset of fuel rods for subsequent BISON evaluation. The BISON fuel performance code was used to investigate steady-state HBU operating conditions and assess uncertainties associated with FGR and its effect on fuel temperatures and RIPs. The VERA and BISON results will provide direct input for HBU experimental testing and support subsequent TRACE and BISON transient fuel performance analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of intake flow and coolant temperature on gasoline spray morphology during early-injection DISI engine operation

Multi-hole gasoline injectors operating at conditions spanning throttled early-intake stroke operation produce spray plumes that either remained separated or merge and collapse due to flash boiling. Flash boiling occurs due to the sudden expansion of gas bubbles in the liquid fuel at high fuel temperature and low ambient pressure. This study records high-speed images of spray-morphology changes due to in-cylinder flow, thereby revealing operating conditions that do and do not affect the self-induced morphology observed in quiescent vessels. Specifically, in a central-injection, four-valve, high-tumble engine, where the thermodynamic state and in-cylinder cross flow are dynamic. Motivated by cold start and hot restart operation, the fuel pressure, coolant temperature, in-cylinder air pressure, and engine rpm were systematically varied over relevant operating conditions, which bracketed the range from non- to flash-boiling sprays. The results reveal the operating conditions at which the in-cylinder cross flow disrupts the spray morphology as well as the extent of the disruption. At 650 rpm, the spray morphology was similar to that observed in quiescent vessels at nominally equivalent fuel temperature and in-cylinder pressure, indicating that the spray’s self-induced entrainment flow dominated the in-cylinder flow. However, for fuel temperature and ambient pressure near the transition between non- and flash-boiling, the intake cross flow at higher engine speed (1950 rpm) significantly disrupted the spray morphology. The high cross-flow velocity appears to induce plume merging and collapse, whereas none was evident at low rpm (650 rpm). This study led to the postulate that the spray merging and collapse are governed by the rate of atomization near the nozzle exit, presumed to be controlled by either or both aerodynamic atomization and flash-boiling intensity. It would then follow that spray modeling in CFD requires atomization models that blend the effects of both physical processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy deposition model in STREAM with photon transport

Recent efforts have been taken to implement a photon transport module for the neutron transport analysis code STREAM, considering the explicit photon energy distribution in the problem instead of using the locally deposition assumption as employed in previous STREAM versions. The current energy release model in STREAM based on the On-the-fly energy released per fission model is modified accordingly to account for the photon energy deposition computed explicitly by this module. The impacts of the modified energy release model with photon transport in STREAM on the power distribution, fuel temperature and other core parameters during depletion with feedback calculations are studied on several problems from the VERA benchmark suit. Overall, the photon transport provides a better power map for depletion and feedback calculations, especially when strong gamma emitters are present. The fuel temperature, in general, is decreased when the photon transport is employed because fission gammas have been transported out of their birthplace. The new energy deposition model in STREAM with photon transport indicates that gamma energy accounts for about 9.7% of the total energy released in a fresh VERA5 2D core and rises to 10.5% at the End of Cycle. Around 2.5% of the total energy released will be deposited in the coolant in this 2D core. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ring Model Development and Validation for Prismatic HTGR Core Thermal-hydraulics and Safety Analysis

Because of the complex core geometry, prismatic high temperature gas-cooled reactors (prismatic HTGRs) often exhibit complex thermal fluid behaviors during both normal operating and transient conditions. Most HTGR designs rely on passive safety system for decay heat removal, such as the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). During postulated accidents like Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event, the decay heat is first radially transferred from the core region to the reactor vessel outer surface, then to the RCCS cooling panels. The peak fuel temperature is controlled by heat transfer mechanisms with two distinctive characteristic length scales, i.e., the core-wise effective heat conduction and local heat conduction in the fuel pellet scale. As both length scales are essential to determine the fuel temperature, from the modeling perspective, computer codes must be able to capture heat transfer in both scales. This is challenging for both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools because of extremely large amount of computation resources required, and for system analysis codes because of the challenge to model the complex core geometry. Under the support of DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, efforts have been pursued to support HTGR technology development and its modeling and simulation needs. There is a particular need for advanced modeling and simulation tools to predict thermal-fluid behavior during safety-related transients. In our previous studies, the ring model was adopted in SAM and further developed to simulate the normal operating condition and a PCC event using the MHTGR-350 design of General Atomics as the reference design. This current work represents a continuation of these previous efforts, and the focus is to critically review and examine simplifications and assumptions made to develop the ring model, and to perform code validation using experimental data from an integral-effect test facility, the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at the Oregon State University. In this study, the test PG-27 from the HTTF test suite was selected for code validation purpose. The test PG-27 is a transient test designed to simulate the PCC event of the MHTGR design. Very good agreements between SAM prediction and experimental measurements were found in both coolant and solid structure temperatures during the transient.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the Statistical Uncertainty of Monte Carlo-Calculated Scattering Sensitivities

Sensitivity coefficients calculated with Monte Carlo codes are widely used for nuclear data uncertainty quantification in the modeling and simulation of complex 3D reactor systems. This study systematically compares sensitivity coefficients and associated statistical uncertainties for the multiplication factor and fuel temperature reactivity across multiple Monte Carlo codes (SCALE/KENO, SCALE/Shift, MCNP, and Serpent) using simple models representing light-water reactors and advanced reactor concepts. For multiplication factor sensitivities, statistical uncertainties are generally acceptable, although scattering sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties than, for example, fission and capture reactions. Fuel temperature reactivity sensitivities show significantly larger statistical uncertainties across all reactions. Elastic scattering sensitivities are the most problematic: all Monte Carlo codes fail to resolve energy-dependent coefficients, and they produce dramatically different energy-collapsed values. Critically, the use of these sensitivity coefficients in nuclear data uncertainty propagation leads to reduced statistical uncertainties in individual uncertainty contributions. This can lead to the masking of unusable sensitivity coefficients and producing misleading uncertainty results. The findings of this study show that new or enhanced methods are needed to improve Monte Carlo elastic scattering sensitivity calculations. Additionally, this study shows the relevance of verifying sensitivity coefficients through direct perturbation calculations for individual nuclide reactions, instead of only for total cross sections as commonly done.

Bostelmann, Rike [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165968088)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗