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NASA NTRS2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2019

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

NASA NTRS1997

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Wood, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Physics of gamma-ray bursts

Attention is given to the accumulating evidence for the view that gamma-ray bursts come from strongly magnetic neutron stars, discussing the physical properties of the emission region and the radiation processes expected in strong magnetic fields, and emphasizing that the observed burst spectra require that the emission region be optically thin. This entails that the energy of the emitting plasma and/or the plasma itself be continuously replenished during a burst, and that the cooling time scale of the emitting plasma be much shorter than the observed duration of the bursts. This characteristic of the cooling time scale implies that the burst intensity and spectrum can vary on extremely short time scales, and that the burst duration must have a separate explanation. It is emphasized that synchrotron emission is favored as the gamma-ray production mechanism; it is the only mechanism capable of satisfying the optical thinness constraint while producing the observed luminosity.

Lamb, D. Q.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2020

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

climate‐related extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spatiotemporal Coherence of Mean and Extreme Aerosol Particle Events over Eastern North America as Observed from Satellite

Quantifying spatiotemporal scales of coherence and variability of aerosol particle properties provides (i) metrics for evaluating observational data sets and model simulations, (ii) inferences regarding dominant causes of variability, and (iii) information that is necessary to determine their climate forcing and air quality impacts. Accordingly, analyses of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångstrom exponent (AE) from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua and Terra satellites, and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations are used to evaluate the spatially averaged (Level-3) MODIS products, and to characterize the spatiotemporal scales of variability (and coherence) of aerosol particles over eastern North America (2000-2013). Results show a high degree of consistency in AOD retrievals from the different data sets but larger discrepancies in AE estimates, highest mean AOD and lowest day-to-day variability during the summer, and largest scales of spatial coherence in summer and fall. Consistent with the scales of spatial coherence from MODIS data, in both data sets power spectra indicate AOD variability is manifest primarily on synoptic and annual time scales. Conversely, AE variability in MODIS data is primarily focused on seasonal, semiannual, and annual time scales, and there is an additional mode of AE variability at approx. 30 days in the AERONET measurements. The frequency of cooccurrence of extreme AOD values (>local 90th percentile) decreases to below 50% at approx. 150 km from a central grid cell, but is above that expected by random chance over almost all of eastern North America, indicating supra-regional scale extreme events.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Realistic 3D Radiative Modeling of Turbulent Structure of Moderate-Mass Stars and Sun

Understanding the turbulent dynamics of the Sun and stars is a critical element for interpreting observed processes and phenomena on different scales and for predicting extreme events such as flares and super flares. High-‐resolution observations of the Sun and high-‐fidelity radiative MHD numerical simulations have substantially advanced our understanding of solar and stellar local dynamics and magnetism from the upper convection zone to the atmosphere and corona. However, global modeling of the Sun with such a high degree of realism is currently not affordable due to the extremely high computational cost of resolving the scales in the convection zone. The physics of the deep solar dynamics can be effectively addressed through modeling more massive solar-‐type stars where the convection zone is shallower and the convective overturning time is much shorter than those on the Sun. We present recent 3D realistic simulation results of moderate-‐mass stars and discuss links between solar and stellar dynamics, such as the multiscale structure of granulation, convective overshoot, and others. In particular, these simulations have provided better understanding of the dynamics of the tachocline (the overshoot layer at the bottom of the convection zone) and have explained long-‐ standing results from helioseismology.

Realistic↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reduction of Convection in Closed Tube Vapor Transport Experiments

The primary objective of this effort was to develop a method for suppressing convective flows during the growth of mercurous chloride crystals by vapor transport in closed tubes to levels approaching those obtained in the microgravity environment. Mercurous chloride was chosen because it is a technologically interesting acoustical optical material whose optical properties are believed to be affected by convective flows. Since the Grashof number scales as the cube of the smallest dimension in the flow system, reduction of the size scale can be extremely effective in reducing unwanted convective flows. However, since materials of practical interest must be grown at least on the cm scale, reduction of the overall growth system is not feasible. But if the region just above the growing crystal could be restricted to a few mm, considerable reduction in flow velocity would result. By suspending an effusive barrier in the growth ampoule just above the growth interface, it should be possible to reduce the convective velocity in this vicinity to levels approaching flows in microgravity. If successful, this growth technique will offer a screening test for proposed space experiments that involve vapor transport to see if reduction of convection will result in improved material and will set a new standard against which the improvements obtained in microgravity may be judged. In addition, it may provide an improved method for preparing materials on Earth whose growth is affected adversely by convection. If the properties of this material can be improved there is a potential commercial interest from Brimrose Inc., who has agreed to fabricate and test devices from the crystals we have grown. This report describes the development of the growth facility, the purification processes developed for preparing the starting material, and the results from growth experiments with and without the effusive baffle. Mercurous chloride turned out to be a more difficult material to deal with than originally anticipated. At growth temperatures, it is extremely sensitive to practically any impurity which causes it to form oxychlorides and/or to decompose into elemental mercury and bichloride of mercury. We were unable to find a suitable method for protecting the magnetic material used to suspend the effusion barrier from the attack of mercurous chloride vapor. Although we were successful in growing single crystals of mercurous chloride without the effusion baffle, they exhibited severe microcracking which we attribute to wall-induced thermal stresses. This leads us to believe that uncontrolled convection may not be the most important problem in the development of this material and a new growth process was attempted that eliminates the wall-induced stress. Unfortunately, the grant ran out before this new method could be adequately tested.

Naumann, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Wintertime Barents-Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents-Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents-Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, though turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6 to 10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Turbulent heat flux↗

NASA NTRS1996

Dynamic Models for LES of Turbulent Front Propagation With a Spectral Method

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent reacting flows places extreme demands on computational resources. At the present time, simulations can be performed only for greatly simplified reaction systems and for very low Reynolds numbers. Direct simulation of more realistic cases occurring at higher Reynolds number and including multiple species and numerous chemical reactions will exceed available computational resources far into the future. Because of this, there is a clear need to develop the technique of large eddy simulation for reacting flows. Unfortunately this task is complicated by the fact that combustion arises from chemical reactions that occur at the smallest scales of the flow. Capturing the large-scale behavior without resolving the small-scale details is extremely difficult in combustion problems. Thus LES modeling for turbulent combustion encounters difficulties not present in modeling momentum transport, in which the main effect of the small scales is to provide dissipation. The difficulty is more pronounced in premixed combustion, where detailed chemistry plays an essential role in determining the flame speed (or overall burning rate); in nonpremixed combustion infinite rate chemistry can be assumed, eliminating the small scale features to a first approximation.

Im, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Structure of the sunspot penumbra

An exceptionally highly resolved sunspot photograph is presented which reveals the fine-scale structure of the photospheric penumbra down to 0.2 arcsec. The photograph was taken through a glass filter in a 170-A FWHM band centered on 4660 A on the 65-cm vacuum Gregorian telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory during practically perfect seeing. The photograph reveals the penumbra to be full of extremely fine-scale fibril structures, with apparent widths near the resolution limit. The three-dimensional structure of the photospheric penumbra is seen to be similar to that of the chromospheric penumbra and superpenumbra, with dark fibrils arching above a lower brighter structure and many of the bright fibrils representing portions of wider bright structures shining through the narrow spaces between the elevated dark fibrils. Thus, in contrast to previous pictures, much of the dark component of the photospheric penumbra is not physically analogous to the intergranular dark lanes in the normal photosphere.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Radar characteristics of Viking 1 landing sites

Radar observations of Mars at centimeter wavelengths in May, June, and July 1976 provided estimates of surface roughness and reflectivity in three potential landing areas for Viking 1. Surface roughness is characterized by the distribution of surface landing slopes or tilts on lateral scales of the order of 1 to 10 meters; measurements of surface reflectivity are indicators of bulk surface density in the uppermost few centimeters. By these measures, the landing site at 47.5 deg W, 22.4 deg N is rougher than the Martian average, although it may be near the average for elevations accessible to Viking, and is estimated to be near the Mars average in reflectivity. The site at the center of Chryse Planitia, 43.5 deg W, 23.4 deg N, may be an area of anomalous radar characteristics, indicative of extreme, small-scale roughness, very low surface density, or a combination of these two characteristics. Observations of the original Chryse site at 34 deg W, 19.5 deg N indicate that that area is at least twice as rough as the Mars average.

Tyler, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sizing Up the Situation

Hailstorm damage to the Space Shuttle's External Tank inspired a NASA innovation with extensive photography applications. In order to measure the defects caused by the storm, Kennedy Space Center used telephoto lenses to zoom in on the tank and view the damage clearly. However, since there was no reference object in the image, the engineers could not determine the scale of the damage. In photographic situations similar to this, an object, such as a ruler, is placed within the field of view. This allows a person to look at a photograph and have a visual indication of the scale of the objects in it. In the External Tank situation, however, this procedure was not possible. As a solution, Kennedy developed the Scaling and Measurement Device for Photographic Images, which provides a non-intrusive means of adding a scale to a photograph. In addition to meeting Kennedy's needs, scaling images is extremely important in crime and accident scene investigations, oil and chemical tank monitoring, and aerial photography. The innovation consists of a tool that attaches directly to a camera or charge coupled device using a standard screw. Two lasers fitted to the device provide parallel beams that are set 1 inch apart. These lasers enable the device to project a pattern into the field of view. When a photograph is taken, the image of the laser pattern appears, along with the image of the object under investigation, allowing the viewer quantifiable information as to the size of the object. The laser beams are accurate to approximately 200 feet. Windows-based software was developed to work with the scaling device tool. The software provides further techniques to measure objects in photographs and digital images. By using the software, any object in the image can be measured diagonally, vertically, and horizontally. The device and its software enable the user to determine two-dimensional measurements within a photograph.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

mixture model↗

NASA NTRS1985

Flow instabilities in transonic small disturbance theory

The dynamics of unsteady transonic small disturbance flows about two-dimensional airfoils is examined, with emphasis on the behavior in the region where the steady state flow is nonunique. It is shown that nonuniqueness results from an extremely long time scale instability which occurs in a finite Mach number and angle of attack range. The similarity scaling rules for the instability are presented and the possibility of similar behavior in the Euler equations is discussed.

Williams, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Flow instabilities in transonic small-disturbance theory

Williams, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Laplace's equation and the Dirichlet-Neumann map in multiply connected domains

A variety of problems in material science and fluid dynamics require the solution of Laplace's equation in multiply connected domains. Integral equation methods are natural candidates for such problems, since they discretize the boundary alone, require no special effort for free boundaries, and achieve superalgebraic convergence rates on sufficiently smooth domains in two space dimensions, regardless of shape. Current integral equation methods for the Dirichlet problem, however, require the solution of M independent problems of dimension N, where M is the number of boundary components and N is the total number of points in the discretization. In this paper, we present a new boundary integral equation approach, valid for both interior and exterior problems, which requires the solution of a single linear system of dimension N + M. We solve this system by making use of an iterative method (GMRES) combined with the last multipole method for the rapid calculation of the necessary matrix vector products. For a two-dimensional system with 200 components and 100 points on each boundary, we gain a speedup of a factor of 100 from the new analytic formulation and a factor of 50 from the fast multipole method. The resulting scheme brings large scale calculations in extremely complex domains within practical reach.

Greenbaum, A.↗