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At least 55 records · Page 3

Cold freeze out of superheavy dark matter and Hubble tension

We present a unified framework, the "X miracle", in which dark matter consists of superheavy, nonthermal X particles whose relic abundance is determined not by the conventional weak-scale, semi-relativistic ("hot") freeze-out of WIMPs, but by annihilation or decay occurring within the smallest and earliest gravitationally bound objects. Unlike thermal WIMPs, which decouple at velocities of order 0.3c with relic abundance ρ∞ set by weak-scale interactions, X particles are produced nonthermally with an initial overabun dance ρ ini >> ρ ∞ . They become nonrelativistic extremely early, redshift to ultra-cold velocities, allowing collapse into compact bound structures characterized by a novel quantum gravitational scale, r X = 4$\hbar$ 2 $/Gm^3_X$ = 10 −13 m $\hbar$$/m_Xc$, much larger than the Compton wavelength. The framework predicts a particle mass of 10 12 GeV and an enhanced cross section of 10 −21 m 3 /s. Overlapping particle wavefunctions in these compact structures drive annihilation or decay into additional radiation, leading to a "cold" freeze-out that converts most of ρ ini into radiation while leaving a relic density ρ ∞ . Solutions to the Boltzmann equation indicate that an extreme ("big") depletion, with only one particle in a billion surviving, yields an additional radiation contribution $ΔN_{eff}$ ≈ 0.4, which could help alleviate the Hubble tension. For particles of 10 12 GeV, the scenario predicts a dark coupling constant α X = 0.09 that is responsible for an instanton-induced decay process, consistent with current UHECR bounds. Early collapse at 10 −6 s may release binding energy as high-frequency (100kHz) gravitational waves or ultralight GUT-scale axions (10 −9 eV). Superheavy sterile neutrinos provide a natural particle realization, linking dark matter to neutrino mass and baryogenesis. If gravitationally produced, this framework favors high-scale inflation and effi cient reheating. The "X miracle" thus demonstrates that dark matter need not be weak-scale: gravitational dynamics can control freeze-out and evolution, producing multi-messenger observational signatures in UHECRs, axions, gravitational waves, and small-scale structures.

Xu, Zhijie Jay [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing the parametric model for self-interacting dark matter using matched halos in cosmological simulations

Here, we systemically evaluate the performance of the self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) halo model proposed in Ref.Yang et al. (2023) with matched halos from high-resolution cosmological CDM and SIDM simulations. The model incorporates SIDM effects along mass evolution histories of CDM halos and it is applicable to both isolated halos and subhalos. We focus on the accuracy of the model in predicting halo density profiles at z = 0 and the evolution of maximum circular velocity. We find the model predictions agree with the simulations within 10%–50% for most of the simulated (sub)halos, 50%–100% for extreme cases. This indicates that the model effectively captures the gravothermal evolution of the halos with very strong, velocity-dependent self-interactions. For an example application, we apply the model to study the impact of various SIDM scenarios on strong lensing perturber systems, demonstrating its utility in predicting SIDM effects for small-scale structure analyses. Our findings confirm that the model is an effective tool for mapping CDM halos into their SIDM counterparts.

Yang, Daneng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing↗

Cell-Format-Dependent Mechanical Damage in Silicon Anodes

Strong binders can be counterproductive for silicon anodes. Here, we show that stresses from cycling Si-based electrodes can cause permanent stretching and wrinkling of the current collector. Furthermore, this deformation damages the electrode coating and accelerates cell aging due to the inactivation of Si domains and facilitation of Li plating. Interestingly, we demonstrate that the formation of wrinkles is size-dependent, being present in pouch cells but absent from coin cells. This size-dependent performance decay indicates that, in extreme cases, testing outcomes are highly dependent on scale and that the validation of battery materials may require testing at larger cell formats.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6

Abstract Efforts to diagnose the risks of a changing climate often rely on downscaled and bias-corrected climate information, making it important to understand the uncertainties and potential biases of this approach. Here, we perform a variance decomposition to partition uncertainty in global climate projections and quantify the relative importance of downscaling and bias-correction. We analyze simple climate metrics such as annual temperature and precipitation averages, as well as several indices of climate extremes. We find that downscaling and bias-correction often contribute substantial uncertainty to local decision-relevant climate outcomes, though our results are strongly heterogeneous across space, time, and climate metrics. Our results can provide guidance to impact modelers and decision-makers regarding the uncertainties associated with downscaling and bias-correction when performing local-scale analyses, as neglecting to account for these uncertainties may risk overconfidence relative to the full range of possible climate futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Black hole to breakout: 3D GRMHD simulations of collapsar jets reveal a wide range of transients

We present a suite of the first 3D GRMHD collapsar simulations, which extend from the self-consistent jet launching by an accreting Kerr black hole (BH) to the breakout from the star. We identify three types of outflows, depending on the angular momentum, l, of the collapsing material and the magnetic field, B, on the BH horizon: (i) subrelativistic outflow (low l and high B), (ii) stationary accretion shock instability (SASI; high l and low B), (iii) relativistic jets (high l and high B). In the absence of jets, free-fall of the stellar envelope provides a good estimate for the BH accretion rate. Jets can substantially suppress the accretion rate, and their duration can be limited by the magnetization profile in the star. We find that progenitors with large (steep) inner density power-law indices (≳ 2), face extreme challenges as gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitors due to excessive luminosity, global time evolution in the light curve throughout the burst and short breakout times, inconsistent with observations. Our results suggest that the wide variety of observed explosion appearances (supernova/supernova + GRB/low-luminosity GRBs) and the characteristics of the emitting relativistic outflows (luminosity and duration) can be naturally explained by the differences in the progenitor structure. Our simulations reveal several important jet features: (i) strong magnetic dissipation inside the star, resulting in weakly magnetized jets by breakout that may have significant photospheric emission and (ii) spontaneous emergence of tilted accretion disc-jet flows, even in the absence of any tilt in the progenitor.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diamond formation in double-shocked epoxy to 150 GPa

We present measurements of diamond formation in doubly shocked Stycast 1266 epoxy (comprising C, H, Cl, N, and O) using in situ x-ray diffraction. Epoxy samples were reshocked against a LiF window to pressures between 80 and 148 GPa in experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. Furthermore, the pressure and temperature conditions were diagnosed in situ using velocimetry and optical pyrometry, respectively. X-ray diffraction patterns of the compressed epoxy are consistent with cubic diamond (Fd3¯m), indicating that diamond can precipitate not only from twice-shocked CH polystyrene [Kraus et al. Nat. Astron. 1, 606 (2017)] at these conditions but also from twice-shocked CH polymers with the addition of oxygen, nitrogen, and chlorine. These results, in combination with previous works on CH, CH 2 , CH 4 , and methane hydrate, support that diamond often, but not always, forms from CH-based compounds at extreme pressures and temperatures, indicating that the chemical composition, thermodynamic compression path, and kinetics play an important role.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbon cycle extremes accelerate weakening of the land carbon sink in the late 21st century

Increasing surface temperature could lead to enhanced evaporation, reduced soil moisture availability, and more frequent droughts and heat waves. The spatiotemporal co-occurrence of such effects further drives extreme anomalies in vegetation productivity and net land carbon storage. However, the impacts of climate change on extremes in net biospheric production (NBP) over longer time periods are unknown. Using the percentile threshold on the probability distribution curve of NBP anomalies, we computed negative and positive extremes in NBP. Here we show that due to climate warming, about 88% of global regions will experience a larger magnitude of negative NBP extremes than positive NBP extremes toward the end of 2100, which accelerate the weakening of the land carbon sink. Our analysis indicates the frequency of negative extremes associated with declines in biospheric productivity was larger than positive extremes, especially in the tropics. While the overall impact of warming at high latitudes is expected to increase plant productivity and carbon uptake, high-temperature anomalies increasingly induce negative NBP extremes toward the end of the 21st century. Using regression analysis, we found soil moisture anomalies to be the most dominant individual driver of NBP extremes. The compound effect of hotness, dryness, and fire caused extremes at more than 50% of the total grid cells. The larger proportion of negative NBP extremes raises a concern about whether the Earth is capable of increasing vegetation production with a growing human population and rising demand for plant material for food, fiber, fuel, and building materials. The increasing proportion of negative NBP extremes highlights the consequences not only of reduction in total carbon uptake capacity but also of conversion of land to a carbon source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of outer disc stellar populations of face-on star-forming galaxies in SDSS-IV MaNGA: causes of H α deficiency

ABSTRACT Integral field unit spectra of face-on star-forming galaxies from the MaNGA survey are stacked in radial bins so as to reach an S/N high enough to measure emission lines and Lick indices out to 2.5–3Re. Two-thirds of galaxies have stellar populations in the outer discs that are older, more metal poor, and less dusty than in the inner discs. Recent bursts of star formation have occurred more frequently in the outer disc, but extinction-corrected H α equivalent widths are significantly lower at fixed Dn(4000) in these regions. I examine the properties of a subset of galaxies with the most H α-deficient outer discs. These regions contain young stellar populations that must have formed within the last 0.5 Gyr, but have extinction-corrected H α values well below the values predicted for a standard Kroupa initial mass function. The H α-deficient galaxies have flat Dn(4000) and H δA profiles with little radial fluctuation, indicating that star formation has occurred extremely uniformly across the entire disc. The H α line profiles indicate that the ionized gas kinematics is also very regular across the disc. The main clue to the origin of the H α deficiency is that it sets in at the same radius where the dust extinction abruptly decreases, suggesting a mode of star formation deficient in massive stars in quiescent, H i-dominated gas. Finally, I have carried out a search for galaxies with signatures of unusual H α kinematics and find that 15 per cent of the sample exhibits evidence for significant ionized gas that is displaced from the systemic velocity of the disc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗

Planning green infrastructure placement based on projected precipitation data

Continued urbanization has led to tremendous changes on the landscape. These changes have exacerbated the effects of extreme climatic events such as flooding because of constrained water infiltration and increased surface flow. Typical runoff control measures involve sophisticated gray infrastructure that guide excess surface flow into storage and disposal sites. In a dynamic climate system, these measures are not sustainable since they cannot be easily modified to accommodate large volumes of runoff. Green Infrastructure (GI) is an adaptable technique that can be used to minimize runoff, in addition to offering an array of additional benefits (urban heat regulation, aesthetics, improved air quality etc.). Strategic placement of GI is key to achieving maximum utility. While physical site characteristics play a major role in determining suitable GI placement sites, knowledge of future precipitation patterns is crucial to ensure successful flood mitigation. Here, suitable GI sites within the city of Knoxville, Tennessee, were determined based on potential impact of an extreme flood event as indicated by site characteristics. Then, the relative potential likelihood of a flood event was determined based on projected precipitation data and knowledge of existing flood zones. By combining potential impact with likelihood information, low, medium, and high priority GI implementation sites were established. Results indicate that high priority sites are in the central parts of the city with priority decreasing outward. The GI prioritization scheme presented here, offers valuable guidance to city planners and policy makers who wish to exploit the GI approach for flood mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Abstract Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite‐derived vegetation index data and supporting tree‐ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi‐arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region‐ and biome‐dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non‐dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate‐specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Efficient Benzene Additives for 19.43% Efficiency of Organic Solar Cells by Crossbreeding Effect of Fluorination and Bromination

Employing volatile solid additives have emerged as a promising method to optimize the morphology and improve the performance of organic solar cells (OSCs). However, principles governing the efficient design of solid additives remain elusive. In this work, the programmed fluorination and/or bromination on benzene core to develop efficient additives for OSCs is reported. The programmed fluorination and/or bromination endow the five halogen benzene derivatives, 1,3,5-trifluorobenzene, hexafluorobenzene, 1,3,5-tribromo-2,4,6-trifluorobenzene (TFTB), 1,3,5-tribromobenzene, and hexabromobenzene, with different melting and boiling points, volatility, as well as interactions with the host blend. Studies indicate that the additives with extremely high and low volatility are almost powerless and even detrimental to the morphology evolution. Among them, the combination of fluorine and bromine atoms on TFTB not only enables the more appropriate m.p./b.p. and volatility, but also exerts stronger molecular interactions with the host blend, giving rise to higher ordered molecular packing and more favorable morphology. Importantly, TFTB exhibits good universality to optimize the performances of OSCs with high power conversion efficiencies (PCEs; over 18%) in a group of binary blend systems, and an impressive PCE of 19.43% in the ternary PBTz-F:PM6:L8-BO system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗