Results for “Extremal set theory” — Page 3

NASA NTRS2006

Saving Space and Time: The Tractor That Einstein Built

In 1984, NASA initiated the Gravity Probe B (GP-B) program to test two unverified predictions of Albert Einstein s theory of general relativity, hypotheses about the ways space, time, light, and gravity relate to each other. To test these predictions, the Space Agency and researchers at Stanford University developed an experiment that would check, with extreme precision, tiny changes in the spin direction of four gyroscopes contained in an Earth satellite orbiting at a 400-mile altitude directly over the Earth s poles. When the program first began, the researchers assessed using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to control the attitude of the GP-B spacecraft accurately. At that time, the best GPS receivers could only provide accuracy to nearly 1 meter, but the GP-B spacecraft required a system 100 times more accurate. To address this concern, researchers at Stanford designed high-performance, attitude-determining hardware that used GPS signals, perfecting a high-precision form of GPS called Carrier-Phase Differential GPS that could provide continuous real-time position, velocity, time, and attitude sensor information for all axes of a vehicle. The researchers came to the realization that controlling the GP-B spacecraft with this new system was essentially no different than controlling an airplane. Their thinking took a new direction: If this technology proved successful, the airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) were ready commercial markets. They set out to test the new technology, the "Integrity Beacon Landing System," using it to automatically land a commercial Boeing 737 over 100 times successfully through Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS technology. The thinking of the researchers shifted again, from automatically landing aircraft, to automating precision farming and construction equipment.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

Structural similitude and design of scaled down laminated models

The excellent mechanical properties of laminated composite structures make them prime candidates for wide variety of applications in aerospace, mechanical and other branches of engineering. The enormous design flexibility of advanced composites is obtained at the cost of large number of design parameters. Due to complexity of the systems and lack of complete design based informations, designers tend to be conservative in their design. Furthermore, any new design is extensively evaluated experimentally until it achieves the necessary reliability, performance and safety. However, the experimental evaluation of composite structures are costly and time consuming. Consequently, it is extremely useful if a full-scale structure can be replaced by a similar scaled-down model which is much easier to work with. Furthermore, a dramatic reduction in cost and time can be achieved, if available experimental data of a specific structure can be used to predict the behavior of a group of similar systems. This study investigates problems associated with the design of scaled models. Such study is important since it provides the necessary scaling laws, and the factors which affect the accuracy of the scale models. Similitude theory is employed to develop the necessary similarity conditions (scaling laws). Scaling laws provide relationship between a full-scale structure and its scale model, and can be used to extrapolate the experimental data of a small, inexpensive, and testable model into design information for a large prototype. Due to large number of design parameters, the identification of the principal scaling laws by conventional method (dimensional analysis) is tedious. Similitude theory based on governing equations of the structural system is more direct and simpler in execution. The difficulty of making completely similar scale models often leads to accept certain type of distortion from exact duplication of the prototype (partial similarity). Both complete and partial similarity are discussed. The procedure consists of systematically observing the effect of each parameter and corresponding scaling laws. Then acceptable intervals and limitations for these parameters and scaling laws are discussed. In each case, a set of valid scaling factors and corresponding response scaling laws that accurately predict the response of prototypes from experimental models is introduced. The examples used include rectangular laminated plates under destabilizing loads, applied individually, vibrational characteristics of same plates, as well as cylindrical bending of beam-plates.

Simitses, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Coronal Magnetography of Solar Active Regions Using Coordinated SOHO/CDS and VLA Observations

The purpose of this project is to apply the coronal magnetographic technique to SOHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) /CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer) EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation) and coordinated VLA microwave observations of solar active regions to derive the strength and structure of the coronal magnetic field. A CDS observing plan was developed for obtaining spectra needed to derive active region differential emission measures (DEMs) required for coronal magnetography. VLA observations were proposed and obtained. SOHO JOP 100 was developed, tested, approved, and implemented to obtain coordinated CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer)/EIT (Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope)/ VLA (Very Large Array)/ TRACE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer)/ SXT (Solar X Ray Telescope) observations of active regions on April 12, May 9, May 13, and May 23. Analysis of all four data sets began, with heaviest concentration on COS data. It is found that 200-pixel (14 A in NIS1) wavelength windows are appropriate for extracting broadened Gaussian line profile fit parameters for lines including Fe XIV at 334.2, Fe XVI at 335.4, Fe XVI at 360.8, and Mg IX at 368.1 over the 4 arcmin by 4 arcmin CDS field of view. Extensive efforts were focused on learning and applying were focused on learning and applying CDS software, and including it in new IDL procedures to carry out calculations relating to coronal magnetography. An important step is to extract Gaussian profile fits to all the lines needed to derive the DEM in each spatial pixel of any given active region. The standard CDS absolute intensity calibration software was applied to derived intensity images, revealing that ratios between density-insensitive lines like Fe XVI 360.8/335.4 yield good agreement with theory. However, the resulting absolute intensities of those lines are very high, indicating that revisions to the CDS absolute intensity calibrations remain to be included in the CDS software, an essential step to deriving reliable coronal magnetograms. With lessons learned and high quality data obtained during the past year, coronal magnetography will be successfully pursued under my new SOHO GI program.

Brosius, Jeffrey W.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the predictive simulation capability, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper will present the status of implementing and maturing particle-particle interaction constituent physics models essential in simulating the landing surface granular material flow under PSI effects. This gas-particle multi-phase interaction modeling of plume impingement flow on the extra-terrestrial soil material is performed with the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) addressed in a companion paper. The response of regolith particle flow induced by lander PSI requires accurate representation of the regolith granular material fluidic behavior and gas-granular interactions. The lunar regolith, as the extreme example, is poorly sorted with broad particle size distributions and large fines content. It has significant cohesion, due to interlocking particle shapes for the very jagged particles. The combination of particle shape and size distribution has been identified as major drivers in the complex particle flow response and resulting crater shape characteristics of extraterrestrial granular material. Constituent models for spherical particles can be formulated directly from particle kinetics theory. Complex particle shapes can be modeled by gluing together elemental spherical shapes into composite particles, requiring a Discrete Element Model (DEM) particle kinetics modeling approach to extract data and formulate constituent models. Mixture constituent models for poly-disperse mixtures (i.e, containing distribution of particle sizes) have recently been developed. The required non-spherical particle mixture granular material response closure models are then obtained through small-scale unit physics DEM simulations for the range of particle shapes, mixtures and packing densities. The granular material response closure models are then implemented in the Eulerian granular flow formulation. This DEM-based constituent model extraction process and formulation of poly-disperse particle mixtures has been successfully developed by small business and academic partners in the development of the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) simulation program simulation framework. The currently implemented capabilities have reached the capability level of modeling bi-disperse, non-spherical particle mixtures is being continuously extended towards computational modeling of full range irregular particle mixtures. Under the GCD project, this technology is being further developed, transferred to NASA analysts, and matured towards application readiness. The predictive simulation capability team under the GCD project has acquired the modeling tools and processes of the DEM based constituent model formulation from the GGFS development team and is developing the capability to replicate the existing process. This is the first important step towards the ability of the NASA team to independently perform such model development in a production setting. Further efforts are underway to migrate the DEM based model simulation process performed with the academic based tools to more capable Open Source, highly parallelized simulation tools for efficient operation on NASA HPC assets. Evaluation of the currently implemented (such as mono-disperse and bi-disperse spherical and irregular shape particle constituent model applications) and continuously evolving full-range particle physics models in the GGFS tool is performed by the NASA team to advance application readiness of the simulations. Application testing for complex PSI erosions and cratering scenarios such as the Apollo LM is performed for axi-symmetric and full 3D simulations to aid the tool developers in achieving practical application readiness for NASA projects. Important validation and application testing will further be performed against experimental data generated under the GCD PSI project experimental component.

Peter A Liever↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulating the Formation of Lunar Floor-Fracture Craters Using Elastoviscoplastic Relaxation

Lunar floor-fracture craters formed during the height of mare basalt emplacement. Due to a general temporal and spatial relation with the maria, these craters, numbering some 200, may be diagnostic of the thermal structure of the crust during this time. As the name suggests, these craters exhibit brittle failure, generally limited to the central floor region. That, and a shallower depth than fresh lunar craters, has led to two main theories as to their formation: laccolith emplacement under the crater and viscous relaxation. The implications of each model for the state of the Moon's crust during this time are quite different, so the viability of each model must be checked. Laccolith emplacement has been treated elsewhere. However, previous attempts to study the relaxation of the craters have assumed only a uniform, Newtonian viscous response of the near surface to the topographic driving forces, and simply postulated that the fractures resulted from tensile stresses associated with floor uplift. Here, we use a more sophisticated rheological model that includes not only non-Newtonian viscous behavior (i.e., the viscosity is stress-dependent), but also incorporates elastic behavior and a plastic component to the rheology to directly simulate the formation of the floor fractures. The results of our simulations show that while elastoviscoplastic relaxation is potentially viable for larger floor-fracture craters, it is not viable for craters with diameters < or = 60 km, the size of the majority of floor-fracture craters. We employ the finite element method, a numerical technique well suited for boundary-value problems, via the commercially available MARC software package. To test the viability of topographic relaxation, our goal is to prepare the simulations as to maximize the amount of relaxation. We take advantage of the natural axisymmetry of craters, simulating one radial plane. Initial shapes are based on data for fresh craters from Pike. To simplify implementation, a fourth order polynomial is used for the basin, while a third order inverse function is used for the rim. This form closely approximates the long-wavelength behavior of complex craters, while ignoring higher-frequency topography, save the rim. This approximation is appropriate because crater relaxation is strongly controlled by long-wavelength topography. Loading is accomplished assuming a uniform gravity field (1.62 m/s-square) and a uniform density of 2900 kg/cubic m. The initial stress state is set to be hydrostatic, with an additional pressure term to account for any overlying topography. This additional pressure term is tapered exponentially with depth. While the simulations quickly settle on a preferred stress state, and while the final solution is fairly insensitive to the choice of the e-folding depth of the taper, selecting an e-folding depth close to the diameter of the crater sets the initial stress state near the preferred state. We assume a diuranally averaged surface temperature of -20 C, and allow temperature to increase with depth at a rate of 50 K//km. Assuming a thermal conductivity of 2 W/in/K, this gradient translates to a heat flow of 100mW/square m, an extremely high value for the Moon. Temperature, of course, will not increase without bound. To maximize relaxation, we allow our temperature profile to increase linearly until it reaches the solidus (assumed to be 1200C) at a depth of 24.4 km, at which point it is kept constant. The presence of melt will drop the bulk viscosity; however, we have no rheological control for partial melts. Therefore, we make no attempt to simulate this situation. Elastoviscoplastic rheological model. In general, geologic materials can behave in three main ways: elastically, viscously (via solid-state creep), and brittly (plasticity is a continuum approach to simulate this phenomenon). We combine these three deformation mechanisms in an extended Maxwell solid, where the total strain can be broken down into a simple summation of the elastic, creep, and plastic strains. In relaxation phenomena in general, the system takes advantage of any means possible to eliminate deviatoric stresses by relaxing away the topography. Previous analyses have only modeled the viscous response. Comparatively, the elastic response in our model can augment the relaxation, to a point. This effect decreases as the elastic response becomes stiffer; indeed, in the limit of infinite elastic Young's modulus (and with no plasticity), the solution converges on the purely viscous solution. Igneous rocks common to the lunar near-surface have Young's modulii in the range of 10-100 GPa. To maximize relaxation, we use a Young's modulus of 10 GPa. (There is negligible sensitivity to the other elastic modulus, the Poisson's ratio; we use 0.25.) For the viscous response, we use a flow law for steady-state creep in thoroughly dried Columbia diabase, because the high plagioclase (about 70 vol%) and orthopyroxene (about 17 vol%) content is similar to the composition of the lunar highland crust as described by remote sensing and sample studies: noritic anorthosite. This flow law is highly non-Newtonian, i.e., the viscosity is highly stress dependent. That, and the variability with temperature, stands in strong contrast to previous examinations of lunar floor-fracture crater relaxation. To model discrete, brittle faulting, we assume "Byerlee's rule," a standard geodynamical technique. We implement this "rule" with an-angle of internal friction of about 40 deg, and a higher-than-normal cohesion of about 3.2 MPa (to approximate the breaking of unfractured rock). The actual behavior of geologic materials is more complex than in our rheological model, so the uncertainties in the plasticity do not represent the state-of-the-art error. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dombard, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Shadowgraph Study of Gradient Driven Fluctuations

A fluid or fluid mixture, subjected to a vertical temperature and/or concentration gradient in a gravitational field, exhibits greatly enhanced light scattering at small angles. This effect is caused by coupling between the vertical velocity fluctuations due to thermal energy and the vertically varying refractive index. Physically, small upward or downward moving regions will be displaced into fluid having a refractive index different from that of the moving region, thus giving rise to the enhanced scattering. The scattered intensity is predicted to vary with scattering wave vector q, as q(sup -4), for sufficiently large q, but the divergence is quenched by gravity at small q. In the absence of gravity, the long wavelength fluctuations responsible for the enhanced scattering are predicted to grow until limited by the sample dimensions. It is thus of interest to measure the mean-squared amplitude of such fluctuations in the microgravity environment for comparison with existing theory and ground based measurements. The relevant wave vectors are extremely small, making traditional low-angle light scattering difficult or impossible because of stray elastically scattered light generated by optical surfaces. An alternative technique is offered by the shadowgraph method, which is normally used to visualize fluid flows, but which can also serve as a quantitative tool to measure fluctuations. A somewhat novel shadowgraph apparatus and the necessary data analysis methods will be described. The apparatus uses a spatially coherent, but temporally incoherent, light source consisting of a super-luminescent diode coupled to a single-mode optical fiber in order to achieve extremely high spatial resolution, while avoiding effects caused by interference of light reflected from the various optical surfaces that are present when using laser sources. Results obtained for a critical mixture of aniline and cyclohexane subjected to a vertical temperature gradient will be presented. The sample was confined between two horizontal parallel sapphire plates with a vertical spacing of 1 mm. The temperatures of the sapphire plates were controlled by independent circulating water loops that used Peltier devices to add or remove heat from the room air as required. For a mixture with a temperature gradient, two effects are involved in generating the vertical refractive index gradient, namely thermal expansion and the Soret effect, which generates a concentration gradient in response to the applied temperature gradient. For the aniline/cyclohexane system, the denser component (aniline) migrates toward the colder surface. Consequently, when heating from above, both effects result in the sample density decreasing with altitude and are stabilizing in the sense that no convective motion occurs regardless of the magnitude of the applied temperature gradient. The Soret effect is strong near a binary liquid critical point, and thus the dominant effect is due to the induced concentration gradient. The results clearly show the divergence at low q and the predicted gravitational quenching. Results obtained for different applied temperature gradients at varying temperature differences from the critical temperature, clearly demonstrate the predicted divergence of the thermal diffusion ratio. Thus, the more closely the critical point is approached, the smaller becomes the temperature gradient required to generate the same signal. Two different methods have been used to generate pure concentration gradients. In the first, a sample cell was filled with a single fluid, ethylene glycol, and a denser miscible fluid, water, was added from below thus establishing a sharp interface to begin the experiment. As time went on the two fluids diffused into each other, and large amplitude fluctuations were clearly observed at low q. The effects of gravitational quenching were also evident. In the second method, the aniline/cyclohexane sample was used, and after applying a vertical temperature gradient for several hours, the top and bottom temperatures were set equal and the thermal gradient died on a time scale of seconds, leaving the Soret induced concentration gradient in place. Again, large-scale fluctuations were observed and died away slowly in amplitude as diffusion destroyed the initial concentration gradient.

Cannell, David↗

NASA NTRS2022

Understanding Structure in Line-Driven Stellar Winds Using Ultraviolet Spectropolarimetry in the Time Domain

The most massive stars are thought to lose a significant fraction of their mass in a steady wind during the main-sequence and blue supergiant phases. This in turn sets the stage for their further evolution and eventual supernova, and preconditions the surrounding medium for all following events, with consequences for ISM energization, chemical enrichment, and dust formation. Understanding these processes requires accurate observational constraints on the mass-loss rates of the most luminous stars, which can also be used to test theories of stellar wind driving. In the past, mass-loss rates have been characterized via collisional emission processes such as optical Hα and free-free radio emission, but these so-called “density squared” diagnostics require correction in the presence of widespread clumping. Recent observational and theoretical evidence points to the likelihood of a ubiquitously high level of such clumping in hot-star winds, but quantifying its effects requires a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics of radiatively driven winds and their stochastic instabilities. Furthermore, large-scale structures initiating in surface anisotropies and propagating throughout the wind can also affect wind driving and alter mass-loss diagnostics. Time series spectroscopy of high resonance-line opacity in the UV, capable of high resolution and high signal-to-noise, are required to better understand these complex dynamics, and more accurately determine mass-loss rates. The proposed Polstar mission (Scowen et al. 2022, this volume) provides the necessary resolution at the Sobolev (∼10 km s −1 ) or sound-speed (∼20 km s −1 ) scale, for over three dozen bright galactic massive stars with signal-to noise an order of magnitude above that of the celebrated MEGA campaign (Massa et al. 1995) of the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE), via continuous observations that track propagating structures through the winds in real time. Supporting geometric constraints are provided by the polarimetric capabilities present in all the datasets of such a mission.

Polstar – NASA MIDEX↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GC/MS Method Development for Separating Lunar Volatile Ice Simulant Headspace Gases

Various investigators propose the lunar surface contains widely distributed volatiles, especially water- like species, i.e. OH and H2O. Surface volatiles are theorized to exist as a hydrated regolith layer, concentrated in extremely cold polar permanently shadowed regions (PSR), and/or solar wind implantation reservoirs in lunar glasses. The proposed sources of lunar surface volatiles range from cometary impacts, solar wind, or a supply present during moon formation. Future Artemis missions aim to collect and return the samples containing volatiles collected near lunar polar craters or PSRs. We, as advanced curation scientists, are responsible for developing techniques and methodologies for preserving returned sample integrity as much as possible. Pristine volatile-bearing samples are invaluable to the scientific community seeking to unravel the history of the solar system. Realistically, a sample will experience alteration during collection, transportation back to earth, and storage. The Planetary Exploration and Astromaterials Research Lab (PEARL) seeks to understand temperature and pressure effects on high-fidelity volatile-containing regolith simulants, the foundation for the future of cold curation. This abstract outlines the separation, identification, and quantification of headspace gases over volatile ice feed stock material using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Preliminary objectives concentrated on sample handling, reproducibility, and understanding the elution characteristics for each analyte. Initial GC/MS method development experiments utilized diluted static headspace sample preparation. Diluted samples were used because sampling headspace gases directly from a vial containing liquid analyte resulted in overloading of the column and detector. Overloading is evident based on chromatogram peak shapes and instrument contamination, or carry over, between experiments. A mixture of three alcohols were used for a majority of the sample handling and reproducibility studies. Reproducibility was tested via multiple users, calibration curves, and check standards. Stock solutions of condensed lunar volatile analytes included methanol, ammonia in methanol, hydrogen sulfide in water, and an equal volume mixture of methanol, ethanol, and isopropanol. Current samples use room air as the headspace sample matrix, however future experiments will incorporate an inert purge gas, such as argon or nitrogen. Three mL of each analyte solution were capped in separate 20 mL crimp top GC vials. Dilutions were carried out by removing an aliquot of headspace gases with a calibrated 1 mL gastight syringe and immediately transferring to a 20 mL capped crimp top vial. The GC/MS is a Thermo Fisher Trace 1310/ISQ 7000 with a TriPlus RSH autosampler and split/splitless injector module. The experiments outlined in this abstract use the following hardware: a 2.5 mL gastight headspace syringe tool, 1 mm ID x 78.5 mm length ultra-inert straight injection liner, and a TG-BondQ 30 m × 0.32 mm × 10 μm column. Various parameters, such as hardware selection and the temperature, pressure, and split ratio set points, continue to evolve as the overall experiment is refined. Diluted headspace chromatograms were collected for the individual stock solutions. Retention times, peak shapes, and mass spectra were evaluated and added to the data processing method for each molecule of interest. Figure 1 shows the total ion chromatograms for the three major lunar volatile simulant stock solutions: methanol, 7 N ammonia in methanol, and 0.4% hydrogen sulfide in water. Tailing peak shapes for ammonia (2.98 min rt) and water (4.06 min rt) indicate the molecules are not properly eluting from the selected column with the current separation method. Additionally, hydrogen sulfide and ammonia have overlapping peak windows, which could impact quantification. Ongoing experiments aim to address the peak shape and overlapping via the separation method and hardware selection. Sample preparation reproducibility experiments used stock solution containing equal volumes of a non- interactive mixture of methanol, ethanol, and isopropanol. Mass spectrum ion traces were used to identify and quantify all three alcohols. Peaks were automatically detected, identified, and integrated through the mass spectra detection and processing parameters. Calibration response curves and check standards were used to evaluate the validity of the sample preparation procedure. Figure 2 shows the methanol chromatogram peak area versus total headspace dilution volume transferred from the alcohol mixture vial. The calibration response curves and check standards validate sample preparation procedure. Continuing data analysis efforts are working towards correlating the peak area and instrument response factor to the headspace analyte concentration and condensed phase composition. Static headspace gas chromatography theory relies on Dalton’s law, Raoult’s law, Henry’s Law, and the Kolb and Ettre equation to associate peak area to the analyte composition in a non-ideal solution. Equation 1 is a simplified expression derived from the aforementioned theories. Future experiments involve liquid injections of the individual stock solutions, liquid and headspace analysis of various stock solution combinations, and the addition of regolith simulants to the mixtures. Temperature is another variable expected to affect reaction rates and will be explored.

Cecilia L. Amick↗