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At least 55 records · Page 3

Autocalibration of the E3SM Version 2 Atmosphere Model Using a PCA-Based Surrogate for Spatial Fields

Global Climate Model tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust, and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (a) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (b) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Use of machine learning to analyze chemistry card sort tasks

Education researchers are deeply interested in understanding the way students organize their knowledge. Card sort tasks, which require students to group concepts, are one mechanism to infer a student’s organizational strategy. However, the limited resolution of card sort tasks means they necessarily miss some of the nuance in a student’s strategy. Here in this work, we propose new machine learning strategies that leverage a potentially richer source of student thinking: free-form written language justifications associated with student sorts. Using data from a university chemistry card sort task, we use vectorized representations of language and unsupervised learning techniques to generate qualitatively interpretable clusters, which can provide unique insight in how students organize their knowledge. We compared these to machine learning analysis of the students’ sorts themselves. Machine learning-generated clusters revealed different organizational strategies than those built into the task; for example, sorts by difficulty or even discipline. There were also many more categories generated by machine learning for what we would identify as more novice-like sorts and justifications than originally built into the task, suggesting students’ organizational strategies converge when they become more expert-like. Finally, we learned that categories generated by machine learning for students’ justifications did not always match the categories for their sorts, and these cases highlight the need for future research on students’ organizational strategies, both manually and aided by machine learning. In sum, the use of machine learning to analyze results from a card sort task has helped us gain a more nuanced understanding of students’ expertise, and demonstrates a promising tool to add to existing analytic methods for card sorts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗

A Guide to Engaging Underserved Communities in Commercial Energy Efficiency Field Validations

Underserved communities in the United States often experience the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation but enjoy few of the benefits of technological and environmental advances. The White House has addressed this inequity through the Justice40 initiative, which requires 40% of the benefits of select federal investments to be directed to underserved communities (The White House, 2022). Clean energy and energy efficiency are two highlighted investment categories, so the U.S. Department of Energy will guide implementation of the Justice40 initiative by, among other things, decreasing energy burdens, increasing parity in clean energy technology access and adoption, and increasing energy resiliency. A strategy for reaching these goals is to evaluate and validate new energy efficiency technologies in commercial buildings in underserved communities, where buildings may be older, smaller, and have deferred maintenance due to historical underinvestment. This paper develops guidance for researchers pursuing field validations with underserved communities. Historical redlining and past negative experiences with government and large institutions may make residents wary of participating in these field validations. Researchers, therefore, may need to spend more time building relationships and matching technologies to buildings. In this paper, we analyzed technical reports to identify common field validation building characteristics and conducted semi-structured expert conversations to identify key stages and major themes of engaging underserved communities. Results indicate there may be flexibility in site selection and there are steps researchers can take to support collaboration with communities. Results also suggest benefits to both the community and energy efficiency research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dara: Automated Multiple-Hypothesis Phase Identification and Refinement from Powder X-ray Diffraction

Powder X-ray diffraction (XRD) is a foundational technique for characterizing crystalline materials. However, the reliable interpretation of XRD patterns, particularly in multiphase systems, remains a manual and expertise-demanding task. As a characterization method that only provides structural information, multiple reference phases can often be fit to a single pattern, leading to potential misinterpretation when alternative solutions are overlooked. To ease humans’ efforts and address the challenge, we introduce Dara (data-driven automated Rietveld analysis), a framework designed to automate the robust identification and refinement of multiple phases from powder XRD data. Dara performs an exhaustive tree search over all plausible phase combinations within a given chemical space and validates each hypothesis using the BGMN Rietveld refinement routine. Key features include structural database filtering, automatic clustering of isostructural phases during tree expansion, and peak-matching-based scoring to identify promising phases for refinement. When ambiguity exists, Dara generates multiple hypothesis which can then be decided between by human experts or with further characterization tools. By enhancing the reliability and accuracy of phase identification, Dara enables scalable analysis of realistic complex XRD patterns and provides a foundation for integration into multimodal characterization workflows, moving toward fully self-driving materials discovery.

Biological databases↗

Conducting Field Validations of Commercial Energy Efficiency Technologies with Underserved Communities: Preprint

Underserved communities in the United States often experience the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation but enjoy few of the benefits of technological and environmental advances. The White House has addressed this inequity through the Justice40 initiative, which requires 40% of the benefits of select federal investments to be directed to underserved communities (The White House, 2022). Clean energy and energy efficiency are two highlighted investment categories, so the U.S. Department of Energy will guide implementation of the Justice40 initiative by, among other things, decreasing energy burdens, increasing parity in clean energy technology access and adoption, and increasing energy resiliency. A strategy for reaching these goals is to evaluate and validate new energy efficiency technologies in commercial buildings in underserved communities, where buildings may be older, smaller, and have deferred maintenance due to historical underinvestment. This paper assesses the proficiency of the technologies under these conditions and increases awareness of the benefits to the communities. In addition, historical redlining and past negative experiences with government and large institutions may make residents wary of participating in these field validations. Researchers, therefore, may need to spend more time building relationships and matching technologies to buildings. In this paper, we analyzed technical reports to identify common required and desired field validation building characteristics, and conducted semi-structured expert conversations to identify key stages and major themes of engaging underserved communities. Our results indicate that the benefits to both the community and energy efficiency research justify the effort. The White House. (2022). Justice40. https://www.whitehouse.gov/environmentaljustice/justice40/

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

The Archaeal Proteome Project advances knowledge about archaeal cell biology through comprehensive proteomics

Abstract While many aspects of archaeal cell biology remain relatively unexplored, systems biology approaches like mass spectrometry (MS) based proteomics offer an opportunity for rapid advances. Unfortunately, the enormous amount of MS data generated often remains incompletely analyzed due to a lack of sophisticated bioinformatic tools and field-specific biological expertise for data interpretation. Here we present the initiation of the Archaeal Proteome Project (ArcPP), a community-based effort to comprehensively analyze archaeal proteomes. Starting with the model archaeon Haloferax volcanii , we reanalyze MS datasets from various strains and culture conditions. Optimized peptide spectrum matching, with strict control of false discovery rates, facilitates identifying > 72% of the reference proteome, with a median protein sequence coverage of 51%. These analyses, together with expert knowledge in diverse aspects of cell biology, provide meaningful insights into processes such as N-terminal protein maturation, N -glycosylation, and metabolism. Altogether, ArcPP serves as an invaluable blueprint for comprehensive prokaryotic proteomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

End-to-end deep learning pipeline for real-time Bragg peak segmentation: from training to large-scale deployment

X-ray crystallography reconstruction, which transforms discrete X-ray diffraction patterns into three-dimensional molecular structures, relies critically on accurate Bragg peak finding for structure determination. As X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) facilities advance toward MHz data rates (1 million images per second), traditional peak finding algorithms that require manual parameter tuning or exhaustive grid searches across multiple experiments become increasingly impractical. While deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, their deployment in high-throughput environments presents significant challenges in automated dataset labeling, model scalability, edge deployment efficiency, and distributed inference capabilities. We present an end-to-end deep learning pipeline with three key components: (1) a data engine that combines traditional algorithms with our peak matching algorithm to generate high-quality training data at scale, (2) a modular architecture that scales from a few million to hundreds of million parameters, enabling us to train large expert-level models offline while deploying smaller, distilled models at the edge, and (3) a decoupled producer-consumer architecture that separates specialized data source layer from model inference, enabling flexible deployment across diverse computing environments. Using this integrated approach, our pipeline achieves accuracy comparable to traditional methods tuned by human experts while eliminating the need for experiment-specific parameter tuning. Although current throughput requires optimization for MHz facilities, our system's scalable architecture and demonstrated model compression capabilities provide a foundation for future high-throughput XFEL deployments.

Wang, Cong↗

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions

Simulated historical precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The model indices are evaluated against corresponding indices from the CPC unified gauge-based analyses of precipitation over seven geographical regions across the contiguous US (CONUS). The regions assessed match those in recent US National Climate Assessment Reports. To estimate observational uncertainty, precipitation indices for three other observational datasets (HadEx2, Livneh and PRISM) are evaluated against the CPC analyses. Both the moderate and extreme mean precipitation intensities are overestimated over the western CONUS and underestimated in the areas of the Central Great Plains (CGP) in most CMIP6 models tested. Most CMIP6 models overestimate the mean and variability of wet spell durations and underestimate the mean and variability of dry spell durations across the CONUS. Biases in interannual variability of most of the indices have similar patterns to those in corresponding mean biases. The median and interquartile model spreads in CMIP6 model biases are clearly smaller than those in CMIP5 model biases for wet spell durations. Multimodel medians of CMIP6 (CMIP6-MMM) and CMIP5 (CMIP5-MMM) have similar biases in climatology and variability but biases tend to be smaller in CMIP6-MMM. Depending on the index, extreme precipitation is slightly better in parts of the eastern half of the CONUS in CMIP6-MMM, otherwise, the biases in climatology and variability are similar to CMIP5-MMM. CMIP6-MMM performs better than individual models and even observational datasets in some cases. Differences between observational datasets for most indices are comparable to the CMIP6 interquartile model spread. The better-performing observational and model datasets are different in different parts of the CONUS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity-based Similarity Metrics for New Experiment Design Optimization

The nuclear data used in advanced reactor simulations requires validation. Data from nuclear criticality experiments can provide this validation. New nuclear criticality experiment design requires extensive knowledge and expert judgement such that the experimental design parameters are selected in such a way to keep the experiment subcritical. To aide in this experimental design process, professionals can utilize sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis relies on matching new application experiments with currently existing benchmark experiments. Currently, there is functionality in the Whisper 1.1 software package to calculate a similarity metric based on neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients between a new application designed by the user and existing International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. The Whisper 1.1 software package is included in Monte Carlo N-Particle ® Code Version 6.21 (MCNP ® 6.2). This work is geared toward expanding this capability to new similarity metrics based on beta-effective sensitivity coefficients and reactivity coefficient sensitivity coefficients. While the investigation of these sensitivity coefficients is presented in detail in separate works at this same conference, this work will be primarily focused on studying the similarity metrics in more detail. These similarity metrics will then be incorporated into the optimization algorithms used for experiment design in EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data), which is a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) project designed to constrain nuclear data of interest, such that adjustments can be made to possible inaccuracies. A more detailed optimization can be subsequently performed by breaking down these similarity metrics by isotope, reaction, and energy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gnu-RL: A Precocial Reinforcement Learning Solution for Building HVAC Control Using a Differentiable MPC Policy

Reinforcement learning (RL) was first demonstrated to be a feasible approach to controlling heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems more than a decade ago. However, there has been limited progress towards a practical and scalable RL solution for HVAC control. While one can train an RL agent in simulation, it is not cost-effective to create a model for each thermal zone or building. Likewise, existing RL agents generally take a long time to learn and are opaque to expert interrogation, making them unattractive for real-world deployment. To tackle these challenges, we propose Gnu-RL: a novel approach that enables practical deployment of RL for HVAC control and re- quires no prior information other than historical data from exist- ing HVAC controllers. To achieve this, Gnu-RL adopts a recently- developed Differentiable Model Predictive Control (MPC) policy, which encodes domain knowledge on planning and system dynam- ics, making it both sample-efficient and interpretable. Prior to any interaction with the environment, a Gnu-RL agent is pre-trained on historical data using imitation learning, which enables it to match the behavior of the existing controller. Once it is put in charge of controlling the environment, the agent continues to improve its policy end-to-end, using a policy gradient algorithm. We evaluate Gnu-RL on both an EnergyPlus model and a real- world testbed. In both experiments, our agents were directly de- ployed in the environment after offline pre-training on expert demonstration. In the simulation experiment, our approach saved 6.6% energy compared to the best published RL result for the same environment, while maintaining a higher level of occupant comfort. Next, Gnu-RL was deployed to control the HVAC of a real-world conference room for a three-week period. Our results show that Gnu-RL saved 16.7% of cooling demand compared to the existing controller and tracked temperature set-point better.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

Spontaneous emergence of straintronics effects and striped stacking domains in untwisted three-layer epitaxial graphene

Emergent electronic phenomena, from superconductivity to ferroelectricity, magnetism, and correlated many-body band gaps, have been observed in domains created by stacking and twisting atomic layers of Van der Waals materials. In graphene, emergent properties have been observed in ABC stacking domains obtained by exfoliation followed by expert mechanical twisting and alignment with the desired orientation, a process very challenging and nonscalable. Here, conductive atomic force microscopy shows in untwisted epitaxial graphene grown on SiC the surprising presence of striped domains with dissimilar conductance, a contrast that demonstrates the presence of ABA and ABC domains since it matches exactly the conductivity difference observed in ABA/ABC domains in twisted exfoliated graphene and calculated by density functional theory. The size and geometry of the stacking domains depend on the interplay between strain, solitons crossing, and shape of the three-layer regions. Interestingly, we demonstrate the growth of three-layer regions in which the ABA/ABC stacking domains self-organize in stable stripes of a few tens of nanometers. The growth-controlled production of isolated and stripe-shaped ABA/ABC domains open the path to fabricate quantum devices on these domains. These findings on self-assembly formation of ABA/ABC epitaxial graphene stripes on SiC without the need of time-consuming and nonscalable graphene exfoliation, alignment, and twisting provide different potential applications of graphene in electronic devices.

Rejhon, Martin (ORCID:000000017775487X)↗

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗