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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion.

The problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls is solved using the Monte Carlo method. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of the two parallel walls and diffuse through another molecular species. The Monte Carlo analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk, and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs, the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the Monte Carlo result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Observation Impacts in Two Forecast Systems using Adjoint Methods

An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS1993

Developing interpretable models with optimized set reduction for identifying high risk software components

Applying equal testing and verification effort to all parts of a software system is not very efficient, especially when resources are limited and scheduling is tight. Therefore, one needs to be able to differentiate low/high fault frequency components so that testing/verification effort can be concentrated where needed. Such a strategy is expected to detect more faults and thus improve the resulting reliability of the overall system. This paper presents the Optimized Set Reduction approach for constructing such models, intended to fulfill specific software engineering needs. Our approach to classification is to measure the software system and build multivariate stochastic models for predicting high risk system components. We present experimental results obtained by classifying Ada components into two classes: is or is not likely to generate faults during system and acceptance test. Also, we evaluate the accuracy of the model and the insights it provides into the error making process.

Briand, Lionel C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Report on holographic tests at S-band and K-band on the DSS-63 64 metre antenna

High resolution holographic tests were carried out on DSS-63 at S-band and K-band during May l985. These tests followed a mechanical retrofit which involved the addition of structural bracing to the backing structure. Geosynchronous satellite beacons were used as sources for the tests. At a resolution of 0.4m the S-band and K-band tests revealed rms deviations of the surface to be 2.73mm and 1.53mm, respectively. The difference between these two results is thought to be due mainly to contamination of the S-band surface error map by expected and generally predictable subreflector diffraction effects. The S-band map is also known to be contaminated by diffraction from the subreflector support struts and has a higher noise level than the K-band map. A list of corrections to be applied to the reflector panels is derived from the K-band map. These corrections are predicted to reduce the rms deviation from 1.53mm to 0.86mm at 0.4m resolution. Comparison with results obtained before the mechanical retrofit suggests the major effect of the added structural bracing to be reduction of a third order deformation of the reflector about its axis.

Godwin, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Scout fourth stage attitude and velocity control (AVC) system feasibility study

The feasibility of incorporating a guidance system in the Scout fourth stage to achieve a significant improvement in expected payload delivery accuracy is studied. The technical investigations included the determination of the AVC equipment performance requirements, establishment of qualification and acceptance test levels, generation of layouts illustrating design approaches for the upper D and payload transition sections to incorporate the hardware, and the preparation of a vendor bid package. Correction concepts, utilizing inertial velocity and attitude, were identified and evaluated. Fourth stage attitude adjustments as determined from inertial velocity variation through the first three stages and a final velocity correction based upon the measured in-plane component errors at injection were employed. Results show radical reductions in apogee-perigee deviations.

Byars, L. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced Dimensionality Analysis of TEMPO Ozone Profile Retrievals Using the Compact Phase Space (CPSR) Algorithm

TEMPO ozone (O 3 ) profile retrievals are expected to have fidelity in the troposphere due the sensitivities of the associated averaging kernels. However, those averaging kernels are severely rank deficiency meaning that a visual inspection of the vertical structure of the averaging kernel profile sensitivities is misleading due linear dependencies in the profile. The Compact Phase Space Retrieval (CPSR) algorithm use singular value decompositions of the averaging kernels and the ‘compressed’ retrieval solution error covariance to project the transformed averaging kernels into a space that removes the linear dependencies and accounts for the solution error uncertainties. In this oral presentation and poster, we apply the CPSR dimensional reduction analysis to TEMPO and TROPOMI O 3 profile retrievals for 13:45 UTC March 29, 2024 to study the phase space characteristics of the transformed averaging kernels as a function of latitude for North America. Our results show that TEMPO generally has more phase space vertical structure in the troposphere than TROPOMI. TEMPO has four to five dominant modes, and TROPOMI has five to six dominant modes. That means that dimensional reduction can reduce the TEMPO resource requirements by ~77% and the TROPOMI requirements by ~81%. Finally, we found that after removing linear dependences and after accounting for solution uncertainties TEMPO still has sensitivities throughout the troposphere.

TEMPO↗
NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Tolerance and Clearance Analysis for Assembly

Tolerance is inevitable because manufacturing exactly equal parts is known to be impossible. Furthermore, the specification of tolerances is an integral part of product design since tolerances directly affect the assemblability, functionality, manufacturability, and cost effectiveness of a product. In this paper, we present statistical tolerance and clearance analysis for the assembly. Our proposed work is expected to make the following contributions: (i) to help the designers to evaluate products for assemblability, (ii) to provide a new perspective to tolerance problems, and (iii) to provide a tolerance analysis tool which can be incorporated into a CAD or solid modeling system.

statistical tolerance clearance analysis Monte-Car↗
NASA NTRS1993

Space Station flexible dynamics under plume impingement

Assembly of the Space Station requires numerous construction flights by the Space Shuttle. A particularly challenging problem is that of control of each intermediate station configuration when the shuttle orbiter is approaching it to deliver the next component. The necessary braking maneuvers cause orbiter thruster plumes to impinge on the station, especially its solar arrays. This in turn causes both overall attitude errors and excitation of flexible-body vibration modes. These plume loads are predicted to lead to CMG saturation during the approach of the orbiter to the SC-5 station configuration, necessitating the use of the station RCS jets for desaturation. They are also expected to lead to significant excitation of solar array vibrations. It is therefore of great practical importance to investigate the effects of plume loads on the flexible dynamics of station configuration SC-5 as accurately as possible. However, this system possesses a great many flexible modes (89 below 5 rad/s), making analysis time-consuming and complicated. Model reduction techniques can be used to overcome this problem, reducing the system model to one which retains only the significant dynamics, i.e. those which are strongly excited by the control inputs or plume disturbance forces and which strongly couple with the measured outputs. The particular technique to be used in this study is the subsystem balancing approach which was previously developed by the present investigator. This method is very efficient computationally. Furthermore, it gives accurate results even for the difficult case where the structure has many closed-spaced natural frequencies, when standard modal truncation can give misleading results. Station configuration SC-5 is a good example of such a structure.

Williams, Trevor↗
NASA NTRS2017

Heroic Reliability Improvement in Manned Space Systems

System reliability can be significantly improved by a strong continued effort to identify and remove all the causes of actual failures. Newly designed systems often have unexpected high failure rates which can be reduced by successive design improvements until the final operational system has an acceptable failure rate. There are many causes of failures and many ways to remove them. New systems may have poor specifications, design errors, or mistaken operations concepts. Correcting unexpected problems as they occur can produce large early gains in reliability. Improved technology in materials, components, and design approaches can increase reliability. The reliability growth is achieved by repeatedly operating the system until it fails, identifying the failure cause, and fixing the problem. The failure rate reduction that can be obtained depends on the number and the failure rates of the correctable failures. Under the strong assumption that the failure causes can be removed, the decline in overall failure rate can be predicted. If a failure occurs at the rate of lambda per unit time, the expected time before the failure occurs and can be corrected is 1/lambda, the Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF). Finding and fixing a less frequent failure with the rate of lambda/2 per unit time requires twice as long, time of 1/(2 lambda). Cutting the failure rate in half requires doubling the test and redesign time and finding and eliminating the failure causes.Reducing the failure rate significantly requires a heroic reliability improvement effort.

life support↗
NASA NTRS1991

Limits on static shape control for space structures

This paper deals with correction of shape distortion due to zero-mean normally distributed errors in structural sizes. The concept of ideal actuators - actuators that can produce any desired displacement field - is introduced. Using this concept, a bound on the possible improvement in the expected value of the root-mean-square shape error is obtained. The shape correction associated with the ideal actuators is also characterized. An actuator effectiveness index is developed by comparing the displacement field generated by the actuator to the ideal. The results are specialized to a simple form for truss structures composed of nominally identical members. The bound and effectiveness index are tested on a 55-m radiometer antenna truss structure. It is found that previously obtained results for optimum actuators had a performance close to the bound obtained here. Also, it is found that large numbers of actuators are needed for large reductions in shape errors. Furthermore, the actuators associated with the optimum design are shown to have high effectiveness indices. Since only a small fraction of truss elements tend to have high effectiveness indices, the use of the effectiveness index can greatly reduce the number of truss members that need to be considered actuator sites.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Evaluation and analysis of the orbital maneuvering vehicle video system

The work accomplished in the summer of 1989 in association with the NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Research Fellowship Program at Marshall Space Flight Center is summarized. The task involved study of the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) Video Compression Scheme. This included such activities as reviewing the expected scenes to be compressed by the flight vehicle, learning the error characteristics of the communication channel, monitoring the CLASS tests, and assisting in development of test procedures and interface hardware for the bit error rate lab being developed at MSFC to test the VCU/VRU. Numerous comments and suggestions were made during the course of the fellowship period regarding the design and testing of the OMV Video System. Unfortunately from a technical point of view, the program appears at this point in time to be trouble from an expense prospective and is in fact in danger of being scaled back, if not cancelled altogether. This makes technical improvements prohibitive and cost-reduction measures necessary. Fortunately some cost-reduction possibilities and some significant technical improvements that should cost very little were identified.

Moorhead, Robert J., II↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS1990

Early results from the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)

The Cosmic Background Explorer, launched 18 Nov. 1989, has nearly completed its first full mapping of the sky with all three of its instruments: A Far Infrared Absolute Spectrometer (FIRAS) covering 0.1 to 10 mm, a set of Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) operating at 3.3, 5.7, and 9.6 mm, and a diffuse Infrared Background Experiment (DIRBE) spanning 1 to 300 microns in ten bands. A preliminary map of the sky derived from DIRBE data is presented. Initial cosmological implications include: a limit on the comptonization parameter of 0.001, on the chemical potential parameter of 0.01, a strong limit on the existence of a hot smooth intergalactic medium, and a confirmation that the dipole anisotropy has the spectrum expected from a Doppler shift of a blackbody. There are no significant anisotropies in the microwave sky detected, other than from our own galaxy and a cos theta dipole anisotropy whose amplitude and direction agree with previous data. At shorter wavelengths, the sky spectrum and anisotropies are dominated by emission from local sources of emission within our Galaxy and Solar System. Preliminary comparison of IRAS (Infrared Astronomical Satellite) and DRIBE sky brightnesses toward the ecliptic poles shows the IRAS values to be significantly higher than found by DRIBE at 100 microns. The presence of gain and zero point errors in the IRAS total brightness data is suggested. The spacecraft, instrument designs, and data reduction methods are described.

Mather, J. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Complementarities of GEO and LEO IR Sounders for Numerical Weather Prediction in an OSSE Framework

Preparations are underway for the United States’ weather satellite program and the expected advancements in the coming decade. Among these changes is the launch of the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), coordinated with international counterparts, to form a global ring of hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders. Coincident with the progress of IR sounders from GEO platforms, the future of low Earth orbit (LEO) sounders is being re-envisioned after decades of beneficial impact in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. To address questions about the utility of the two platform types in concert, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was used to examine the roles of GEO and LEO sounders and their impact on forecast error reduction. Overall, inclusion of both types of platforms in the satellite program produces the largest forecast error reduction with LEO sounders having a strong impact on global skill and GEO sounders providing the most benefit on the scale of targeted regions.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗
NASA NTRS2000

45 Km Horizontal Path Optical Link Experiment

Mountain-top to mountain-top optical link experiments have been initiated at JPL, in order to perform a systems level evaluation of optical communications. Progress made so far is reported. ne NASA, JPL developed optical communications demonstrator (OCD) is used to transmit a laser signal from Strawberry Peak (SP), located in the San Bernadino mountains of California. This laser beam is received by a 0.6 m aperture telescope at JPL's Table Mountain Facility (TMF), located in Wrightwood, California. The optical link is bi-directional with the TMF telescope transmitting a continuous 4-wave (cw) 780 run beacon and the OCD sending back a 840 nm, 100 - 500 Mbps pseudo noise (PN) modulated, laser beam. The optical link path is at an average altitude of 2 km above sea level, covers a range of 46.8 km and provides an atmospheric channel equivalent to approx. 4 air masses. Average received power measured at either end fall well within the uncertainties predicted by link analysis. The reduction in normalized intensity variance (sigma(sup 2, sub I)) for the 4-beam beacon, compared to each individual beam, at SP, was from approx. 0.68 to 0.22. With some allowance for intra-beam mis-alignment, this is consistent with incoherent averaging. The sigma(sup2, sub I) measured at TMF approx. 0.43 +/- 0.22 exceeded the expected aperture averaged value of less than 0.1, probably because of beam wander. The focused spot sizes of approx. 162 +/- 6 microns at the TMF Coude and approx. 64 +/- 3 microns on the OCD compare to the predicted size range of 52 - 172 microns and 57 - 93 microns, respectively. This is consistent with 4 - 5 arcsec of atmospheric "seeing". The preliminary evaluation of OCD's fine tracking indicates that the uncompensated tracking error is approx. 3.3 micro rad compared to approx. 1.7 micro rad observed in the laboratory. Fine tracking performance was intermittent, primarily due to beacon fades on the OCD tracking sensor. The best bit error rates observed while tracking worked were 1E-5 to 1E-6.

Biswas, A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Causes of Model Biases in Simulating Inorganic Aerosol Composition During KORUS-AQ and Implications for the Estimate of Transboundary Pollution

East Asia is a region of increasing economic growth which has led to severe PM2.5 pollution in urban areas. The joint NASA-NIER Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May-June 2016 provided an extensive dataset of ground, airborne, and remote sensing observations to test model simulations of PM2.5 pollution transport and potential control measures. During KORUS-AQ, a period of haze was observed in which PM2.5 rapidly increased to the highest levels observed during the campaign. This increase is associated with increasing inorganic aerosol. While a portion of this increase is due to long-range transport, there is observational evidence that aerosol formation from local precursors was also enhanced. This suggests that domestic policy measures could have a greater than expected influence on controlling PM2.5. However, models have difficulty reproducing PM2.5 levels, particularly the composition of secondary inorganic aerosol. Models generally underestimate sulfate and overestimate nitrate and fail to represent the peak levels of PM2.5 during haze events. These biases have been chiefly attributed to errors in chemical mechanisms and model meteorology, not issues with underlying emissions inventories. Here, we use observations from KORUS-AQ interpreted by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve the model’s ability to reproduce secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations during the campaign and explore mechanisms to improve model biases during the haze event. We assess the fraction of inorganic aerosol from the improved model simulation that results from transboundary transport during KORUS-AQ and test the model sensitivity to potential emission reduction measures that could improve air quality in Seoul during different meteorological periods including haze episodes.

Katie Travis↗
NASA NTRS1989

A statistical study of radio-source structure effects on astrometric very long baseline interferometry observations

Errors from a number of sources in astrometric very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have been reduced in recent years through a variety of methods of calibration and modeling. Such reductions have led to a situation in which the extended structure of the natural radio sources used in VLBI is a significant error source in the effort to improve the accuracy of the radio reference frame. In the past, work has been done on individual radio sources to establish the magnitude of the errors caused by their particular structures. The results of calculations on 26 radio sources are reported in which an effort is made to determine the typical delay and delay-rate errors for a number of sources having different types of structure. It is found that for single observations of the types of radio sources present in astrometric catalogs, group-delay and phase-delay scatter in the 50 to 100 psec range due to source structure can be expected at 8.4 GHz on the intercontinental baselines available in the Deep Space Network (DSN). Delay-rate scatter of approx. 5 x 10(exp -15) sec sec(exp -1) (or approx. 0.002 mm sec (exp -1) is also expected. If such errors mapped directly into source position errors, they would correspond to position uncertainties of approx. 2 to 5 nrad, similar to the best position determinations in the current JPL VLBI catalog. With the advent of wider bandwidth VLBI systems on the large DSN antennas, the system noise will be low enough so that the structure-induced errors will be a significant part of the error budget. Several possibilities for reducing the structure errors are discussed briefly, although it is likely that considerable effort will have to be devoted to the structure problem in order to reduce the typical error by a factor of two or more.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Analysis of Darwin Rainfall Data: Implications on Sampling Strategy

Rainfall data collected by radar in the vicinity of Darwin, Australia, have been analyzed in terms of their mean, variance, autocorrelation of area-averaged rain rate, and diurnal variation. It is found that, when compared with the well-studied GATE (Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment) data, Darwin rainfall has larger coefficient of variation (CV), faster reduction of CV with increasing area size, weaker temporal correlation, and a strong diurnal cycle and intermittence. The coefficient of variation for Darwin rainfall has larger magnitude and exhibits larger spatial variability over the sea portion than over the land portion within the area of radar coverage. Stationary, and nonstationary models have been used to study the sampling errors associated with space-based rainfall measurement. The nonstationary model shows that the sampling error is sensitive to the starting sampling time for some sampling frequencies, due to the diurnal cycle of rain, but not for others. Sampling experiments using data also show such sensitivity. When the errors are averaged over starting time, the results of the experiments and the stationary and nonstationary models match each other very closely. In the small areas for which data are available for I>oth Darwin and GATE, the sampling error is expected to be larger for Darwin due to its larger CV.

Rafael, Qihang Li↗