Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Expectation Maximization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

Maximum-Likelihood Parameter Estimation for High-Contrast Wavefront Sensing & Control

Stellar coronagraphs use closed-loop focal-plane wavefront sensing and control algorithms to create high-contrast dark zones suitable for imaging exoplanets and exozodiacal dust clouds around nearby stars. At present, the deepest contrast has been achieved using model-based algorithms, which use the predicted focal-plane influence of the coronagraph's deformable mirrors to drive diffracted starlight toward zero over time in an optimal control framework. However, model-based algorithms are susceptible to model mismatch, wherein a departure of the coronagraph's true optical characteristics from the model predictions causes reduced control loop performance. Here, we report on a technique for maximum-likelihood estimation of the wavefront control Jacobian matrix and noise statistics of the coronagraph focal-plane electric field from data acquired in situ during closed-loop wavefront control operations. By empirically tuning the Jacobian and noise properties in a statistically rigorous fashion, the maximum-likelihood approach mitigates model mismatch and recovers near-optimal control loop performance.

coronagraphy↗

Dynamical response of the dayside ionosphere of Venus to the solar wind

Dayside ion composition measurements made by the orbiter ion mass spectrometer and the orbiter electron temperature probe on the Pioneer Venus orbiter are used to infer the dominant processes involved in the dynamic response of the Venus ionosphere to the solar wind. The analysis is confined to the topside ionosphere in the vicinity of the subsolar point, where the ionosphere-solar wind interaction is expected to be maximized. Height profiles of the ion composition and plasma temperatures in the main body of the topside ionosphere, lying between the ionopause and chemical equilibrium regions, reveal that the ionosphere is in a compressed state. This region of the ionosphere is interpreted in terms of a stationary equilibrium where the compression is derived from the ponderomotive force j x B. The estimated magnitude of this force is confirmed by the magnetic field measurements made by the orbiter magnetometer.

Hartle, R. E.↗

Mission Scenario Development Workbench

The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

Kordon, Mark↗

A Robust Design Methodology for Optimal Microscale Secondary Flow Control in Compact Inlet Diffusers

It is the purpose of this study to develop an economical Robust design methodology for microscale secondary flow control in compact inlet diffusers. To illustrate the potential of economical Robust Design methodology, two different mission strategies were considered for the subject inlet, namely Maximum Performance and Maximum HCF Life Expectancy. The Maximum Performance mission maximized total pressure recovery while the Maximum HCF Life Expectancy mission minimized the mean of the first five Fourier harmonic amplitudes, i.e., 'collectively' reduced all the harmonic 1/2 amplitudes of engine face distortion. Each of the mission strategies was subject to a low engine face distortion constraint, i.e., DC60<0.10, which is a level acceptable for commercial engines. For each of these missions strategies, an 'Optimal Robust' (open loop control) and an 'Optimal Adaptive' (closed loop control) installation was designed over a twenty degree angle-of-incidence range. The Optimal Robust installation used economical Robust Design methodology to arrive at a single design which operated over the entire angle-of-incident range (open loop control). The Optimal Adaptive installation optimized all the design parameters at each angle-of-incidence. Thus, the Optimal Adaptive installation would require a closed loop control system to sense a proper signal for each effector and modify that effector device, whether mechanical or fluidic, for optimal inlet performance. In general, the performance differences between the Optimal Adaptive and Optimal Robust installation designs were found to be marginal. This suggests, however, that Optimal Robust open loop installation designs can be very competitive with Optimal Adaptive close loop designs. Secondary flow control in inlets is inherently robust, provided it is optimally designed. Therefore, the new methodology presented in this paper, combined array 'Lower Order' approach to Robust DOE, offers the aerodynamicist a very viable and economical way of exploring the concept of Robust inlet design, where the mission variables are brought directly into the inlet design process and insensitivity or robustness to the mission variables becomes a design objective.

Anderson, Bernhard H.↗

Particle chaos and pitch angle scattering

Pitch angle scattering is a factor that helps determine the dawn-to-dusk current, controls particle energization, and it has also been used as a remote probe of the current sheet structure. Previous studies have interpreted their results under the exception that randomization will be greatest when the ratio of the two timescales of motion (gyration parallel to and perpendicular to the current sheet) is closet to one. Recently, the average expotential divergence rate (AEDR) has been calculated for particle motion in a hyperbolic current sheet (Chen, 1992). It is claimed that this AEDR measures the degree of chaos and therefore may be thought to measure the randomization. In contrast to previous expectations, the AEDR is not maximized when Kappa is approximately equal to 1 but instead increases with decreasing Kappa. Also contrary to previous expectations, the AEDR is dependent upon the parameter b(sub z). In response to the challenge to previous expectations that has been raised by this calculation of the AEDR, we have investigated the dependence of a measure of particle pitch angle scattering on both the parameters Kappa and b(sub z). We find that, as was previously expected, particle pitch angle scattering is maximized near Kappa = 1 provided that Kappa/b(sub z) greater than 1. In the opposite regime, Kappa/b(sub z) less than 1, we find that particle pitch angle scattering is still largest when the two timescales are equal, but the ratio of the timescales is proportional to b(sub z). In this second regime, particle pitch angle scattering is not due to randomization, but is instead due to a systematic pitch angle change. This result shows that particle pitch angle scattering need not be due to randomization and indicates how a measure of pitch angle scattering can exhibit a different behavior than a measure of chaos.

Burkhart, G. R.↗

A new measurement of the Hercules X-1 X-ray pulse profile

Report on measurements of a triple-peaked 1.24-sec pulse profile in a 1-minute rocket-borne exposure to Her X-1, in contrast to the double-peaked profiles expected from models which maximize the X-ray emission at the magnetic equator of an accreting neutron star. The profile exhibits statistically significant energy dependence, with the emission greater than about 12 keV having narrower peaks which appear to lag (by approximately 5% of the pulse period) the corresponding peaks at lower energies. Approximately one-third of the total emission from the source is nonpulsed.

Holt, S. S.↗

A new measurement of the Her X-1 X-ray pulse profile

A triple peaked 1.24 sec. pulse profile in a 1-minute rocket borne exposure to Her X-1 was measured, in contrast to the doublepeaked profiles expected from models which maximize the X ray emission at the magnetic equator of an accreting neutron star. The profile exhibits statistically significant energy dependence, with the emission approximately greater than 12 keV having narrower peaks which lag (by approximately 5% of the pulse period) the corresponding peaks at lower energies. Approximately one third of the total emission from the source is nonpulsed.

Holt, S. S.↗

Effect of external viscous load on head movement

Quantitative measurements of horizontal head rotation were obtained from normal human subjects intending to make 'time optimal' trajectories between targets. By mounting large, lightweight vanes on the head, viscous damping B, up to 15 times normal could be added to the usual mechanical load of the head. With the added viscosity, the head trajectory was slowed and of larger duration (as expected) since fixed and maximal (for that amplitude) muscle forces had to accelerate the added viscous load. This decreased acceleration and velocity and longer duration movement still ensued in spite of adaptive compensation; this provided evidence that quasi-'time optimal' movements do indeed employ maximal muscle forces. The adaptation to this added load was rapid. Then the 'adapted state' subjects produced changed trajectories. The adaptation depended in part on the differing detailed instructions given to the subjects. This differential adaptation provided evidence for the existence of preprogrammed controller signals, sensitive to intended criterion, and neurologically ballistic or open loop rather than modified by feedback from proprioceptors or vision.

Nam, M.-H.↗

Delay-Throughput Performance of the Deep-Space Ka-band Link

In this paper, performance of a first-in, first-out (FIFO), selective retransmission scheme for the deep-space Ka-band link is presented and compared to the performance of a comparable X-band link. In this analysis, 16 months of water vapor radiometer (WVR) and advanced water vapor radiometer (AWVR) data from the three Deep Space Network (DSN) Communication Complexes (DSCC) were used to emulate weather effects on X-band and Ka-band links from Mars. Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) X-band and Ka-band telecommunications parameters were used for spacecraft telecommunications capabilities. One pass per week per complex was selected from MRO's Deep Space Network (DSN) schedule from April 1, 2006 to August 31, 2007 for a total of 207 passes (69 passes per complex) for this analysis. For each pass both X-band and Ka-band links were designed using at most two data rates so that the expected pass capacity would be maximized subject to a minimum availability requirement (MAR). In conjunction with the WVR/AWVR data, elevation profiles of the selected passes and models for the performance of the antennas in the DSN were used to emulate the performance of both links. It was assumed that the retransmission of the data takes place not on the same pass as the original transmission but during subsequent passes. The data collected before a pass was assumed to be a fraction of the expected capacity of the pass as calculated through the link design process. Infinite spacecraft storage was assumed to obtain an upper bound on the spacecraft storage requirement. The independent parameters of this analysis were MAR and the ratio of data collected before a pass to the expected pass capacity. Since the selected passes did not occur at regular intervals, the delay in this analysis was measured in terms of number of passes. The throughput was measured in terms of number of bits received successfully on the ground. The results indicate that reasonable delay performance could be achieved with very high throughput for relatively low MAR values for data collection to expected pass capacity ratio of around 97% for Ka-band. The results indicate that, except for very low average delay requirements, the Ka-band link provides more than twice the throughput of the X-band link for the same amount of power consumed by the spacecraft. In addition, the results indicate that the required storage onboard the spacecraft is not prohibitive and good performance could be achieved by using a buffer size less than three times the maximum amount of data collected before a pass.

Shambayati, Shervin↗

Delay-Throughput Performance the Deep-Space Ka-Band Link

In this paper, performance of a first-in, first-out (FIFO), selective retransmission scheme for the deep-space Ka-band link is presented and compared to the performance of a comparable X-band link. In this analysis, 16 months of water vapor radiometer (WVR) and advanced water vapor radiometer (AWVR) data from the three Deep Space Network (DSN) Communication Complexes (DSCC) were used to emulate weather effects on X-band and Ka-band links from Mars. Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) X-band and Ka-band telecommunications parameters were used for spacecraft telecommunications capabilities. One pass per week per complex was selected from MRO's Deep Space Network (DSN) schedule from April 1, 2006 to August 31, 2007 for a total of 207 passes (69 passes per complex) for this analysis. For each pass both X-band and Ka-band links were designed using at most two data rates so that the expected pass capacity would be maximized subject to a minimum availability requirement (MAR). In conjunction with the WVR/AWVR data, elevation profiles of the selected passes and models for the performance of the antennas in the DSN were used to emulate the performance of both links. It was assumed that the retransmission of the data takes place not on the same pass as the original transmission but during subsequent passes. The data collected before a pass was assumed to be a fraction of the expected capacity of the pass as calculated through the link design process. Infinite spacecraft storage was assumed to obtain an upper bound on the spacecraft storage requirement. The independent parameters of this analysis were MAR and the ratio of data collected before a pass to the expected pass capacity. Since the selected passes did not occur at regular intervals, the delay in this analysis was measured in terms of number of passes. The throughput was measured in terms of number of bits received successfully on the ground. The results indicate that reasonable delay performance could be achieved with very high throughput for relatively low MAR values for data collection to expected pass capacity ratio of around 97% for Ka-band. The results indicate that, except for very low average delay requirements, the Ka-band link provides more than twice the throughput of the X-band link for the same amount of power consumed by the spacecraft. In addition, the results indicate that the required storage onboard the spacecraft is not prohibitive and good performance could be achieved by using a buffer size less than three times the maximum amount of data collected before a pass.

Shambayati, Shervin↗

Planning with Continuous Resources in Stochastic Domains

We consider the problem of optimal planning in stochastic domains with metric resource constraints. Our goal is to generate a policy whose expected sum of rewards is maximized for a given initial state. We consider a general formulation motivated by our application domain--planetary exploration--in which the choice of an action at each step may depend on the current resource levels. We adapt the forward search algorithm AO* to handle our continuous state space efficiently.

Mausam, Mausau↗

Random Test Run Length and Effectiveness

A poorly understood but important factor in many applications of random testing is the selection of a maximum length for test runs. Given a limited time for testing, it is seldom clear whether executing a small number of long runs or a large number of short runs maximizes utility. It is generally expected that longer runs are more likely to expose failures -- which is certainly true with respect to runs shorter than the shortest failing trace. However, longer runs produce longer failing traces, requiring more effort from humans in debugging or more resources for automated minimization. In testing with feedback, increasing ranges for parameters may also cause the probability of failure to decrease in longer runs. We show that the choice of test length dramatically impacts the effectiveness of random testing, and that the patterns observed in simple models and predicted by analysis are useful in understanding effects observed.

software testing↗

Operation of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE): Maximizing Science Participation

Science return from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) will be optimized by maximizing science participation in the experiment. MRO is expected to arrive at Mars in March 2006, and the primary science phase begins near the end of 2006 after aerobraking (6 months) and a transition phase. The primary science phase lasts for almost 2 Earth years, followed by a 2-year relay phase in which science observations by MRO are expected to continue. We expect to acquire approx. 10,000 images with HiRISE over the course of MRO's two earth-year mission. HiRISE can acquire images with a ground sampling dimension of as little as 30 cm (from a typical altitude of 300 km), in up to 3 colors, and many targets will be re-imaged for stereo. With such high spatial resolution, the percent coverage of Mars will be very limited in spite of the relatively high data rate of MRO (approx. 10x greater than MGS or Odyssey). We expect to cover approx. 1% of Mars at approx. 1m/pixel or better, approx. 0.1% at full resolution, and approx. 0.05% in color or in stereo. Therefore, the placement of each HiRISE image must be carefully considered in order to maximize the scientific return from MRO. We believe that every observation should be the result of a mini research project based on pre-existing datasets. During operations, we will need a large database of carefully researched 'suggested' observations to select from. The HiRISE team is dedicated to involving the broad Mars community in creating this database, to the fullest degree that is both practical and legal. The philosophy of the team and the design of the ground data system are geared to enabling community involvement. A key aspect of this is that image data will be made available to the planetary community for science analysis as quickly as possible to encourage feedback and new ideas for targets.

E Eliason↗

Predicted satellite plasma tori in the magnetosphere of Uranus

The paper formulates the rate equations for twelve species: water, hydroxyl, molecular and atomic oxygen, molecular and atomic hydrogen, and their respective first ions for conditions expected to hold in the magnetosphere of Uranus. These equations have been solved numerically for maximal and minimal source strengths of the five known satellites, and the expected neutral and plasma number densities in the tori predicted to be associated with them have been calculated. It is found that under most conditions, there should be a sensible plasma torus associated with each satellite whose orbit is enclosed within the assumed magnetosphere.

Eviatar, A.↗

Analysis of Modified SMI Method for Adaptive Array Weight Control

An adaptive array is used to receive a desired signal in the presence of weak interference signals which need to be suppressed. A modified sample matrix inversion (SMI) algorithm controls the array weights. The modification leads to increased interference suppression by subtracting a fraction of the noise power from the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix. The modified algorithm maximizes an intuitive power ratio criterion. The expected values and variances of the array weights, output powers, and power ratios as functions of the fraction and the number of snapshots are found and compared to computer simulation and real experimental array performance. Reduced-rank covariance approximations and errors in the estimated covariance are also described.

Dilsavor, Ronald Louis↗

Sensitivity of the human circadian pacemaker to nocturnal light: melatonin phase resetting and suppression

Ocular exposure to early morning room light can significantly advance the timing of the human circadian pacemaker. The resetting response to such light has a non-linear relationship to illuminance. The dose-response relationship of the human circadian pacemaker to late evening light of dim to moderate intensity has not been well established. Twenty-three healthy young male and female volunteers took part in a 9 day protocol in which a single experimental light exposure6.5 h in duration was given in the early biological night. The effects of the light exposure on the endogenous circadian phase of the melatonin rhythm and the acute effects of the light exposure on plasma melatonin concentration were calculated. We demonstrate that humans are highly responsive to the phase-delaying effects of light during the early biological night and that both the phase resetting response to light and the acute suppressive effects of light on plasma melatonin follow a logistic dose-response curve, as do many circadian responses to light in mammals. Contrary to expectations, we found that half of the maximal phase-delaying response achieved in response to a single episode of evening bright light ( approximately 9000 lux (lx)) can be obtained with just over 1 % of this light (dim room light of approximately 100 lx). The same held true for the acute suppressive effects of light on plasma melatonin concentrations. This indicates that even small changes in ordinary light exposure during the late evening hours can significantly affect both plasma melatonin concentrations and the entrained phase of the human circadian pacemaker.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗