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NASA NTRS2003

Crystal Size Distributions from Porphyritic Olivine Chondrules: Insights into Formation Conditions

Most chondrules preserve, in their texture, a record of their precursor material and the nature and intensity of the nebular events in which they were formed. We have used crystal size distributions (CSDs) together with crystallization experiments to explore the textures of natural chondrules and their relationships to natural formation conditions. Many careful experimental studies have demonstrated fundamental relationships between the texture of a chondrule and its precursor material, melting intensity, and cooling rate. However, until recently most studies have focused on distinctions between textural types (e.g., barred, radial, porphyritic). Previous work has shown that CSDs provide precise, reproducible characterizations of chondrule-scale textures, and can be used together with crystallization experiments to estimate chondrule formation conditions. Here, we expand this study to investigate the link between texture and formation conditions for a range of natural porphyritic olivine (PO) chondrules.

Zieg, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2008

Oxygen Isotope Systematics of Chondrules from the Least Equilibrated H Chondrite

Oxygen isotope compositions of bulk chondrules and their mineral separates in type 3 ordinary chondrites (UOC) show several % variability in the oxygen three isotope diagram with slope of approx.0.7 [1]. In contrast, ion microprobe analyses of olivine and pyroxene phenocrysts in ferromagnesian chondrules from LL 3.0-3.1 chondrites show mass dependent isotopic fractionation as large as 5% among type I (FeO-poor) chondrules, while type II (FeO-rich) chondrules show a narrow range (less than or equal to 1%) of compositions [2]. The .Delta(exp 17)O (=delta(exp 17)O-0.52xdelta(exp 18)O) values of olivine and pyroxene in these chondrules show a peak at approx.0.7% that are systematically lower than those of bulk chondrule analyses as well as the bulk LL chondrites [2]. Further analyses of glass in Semarkona chondrules show .17O values as high as +5% with highly fractionated d18O (max +18%), implying O-16-poor glass in chondrules were altered as a result of hydration in the parent body at low temperature [3]. Thus, chondrules in LL3.0-3.1 chondrites do not provide any direct evidence of oxygen isotope exchange between solid precursor and O-16-depleted gas during chondrule melting events. To compare the difference and/or similarity between chondrules from LL and H chondrites, we initiated systematic investigations of oxygen isotopes in chondrules from Yamato 793408 (H3.2), one of the least equilibrated H chondrite [4]. In our preliminary study of 4 chondrules, we reported distinct oxygen isotope ratios from dusty olivine and refractory forsterite (RF) grains compared to their host chondrules and confirmed their relict origins [5].

Kita, N. T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

CME-Producing Precursors to the 2006 December 13 X-Flare

We revisit one of the largest explosions observed during the Hinode era, the X4.3 class event of 2006 Dec 13. We gain insight into the main eruption through study of two sub-C-class precursor eruptions, occurring within 12 hours of and originating from the same (or nearby) neutral line as the X-flare. The precursors share some features in common with the main eruption, and their lower energy and consequent slower development renders interpretation of these features easier to decipher than in the rapidly explosive main eruption. In addition, because the weak precursors occurred in a magnetically strong region, magnetic connections indicated by soft X-ray loops are readily visible in these cases, while such connections can be much less apparent in weaker-region eruptions. Hinode/SOT magnetograms indicate that photospheric magnetic dynamic activity in the "magnetic core" is the likely ultimate source of the eruptions. All the eruptions, however, produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that have wider spatial extent than the localized source region; this is a long-observed but puzzling phenomena, which can address directly here using the high-quality Hinode data. For the precursor eruptions, Hinode/XRT images show that the initial eruptions occur inside larger-scale magnetic structures that encompass the core. The exploding core field blows out this larger-scale structure, resulting in the CME having angular extent far exceeding that of the source-region core alone; this is the arch-arch-blowout scenario for CMEs of Moore & Sterling (2007). Similar processes occur in the main eruption, except that the much larger energy release in that eruption compared to the precursors results in much faster and larger-scale phenomena.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Chondrule formation in the radiative accretional shock

The physical, mineralogical, and isotopic properties of chondrules strongly indicate that they were formed by the rapid melting and resolidification of preexisting solids composed of primitive material. The chondrule precursors were heated to temperatures of about 1800 K in short high-temperature events, followed by cooling with a rate of 10(exp 2)-10(exp 3) K/hr. A heat input of about 1500 J/g is required to heat chondrule precursors to such a temperature and melt them. Lightning discharges and flares in the solar nebula, and heating of the chondrule precursors by friction with gas decelerated in the accretional shock or in a shock (of unspecified origin) within the solar nebula, have been discussed as possible mechanisms for chondrule formation. One advantage of chondrule formation in large-scale shocks is that a lot of dust material can be processed. An accretional shock, which is produced by infalling gas of the presolar cloud when it collides with the solar nebula, belongs to this type of shock. In 1984 Wood considered the possibility of chondrule formation in the accretional shock by heating of chondrule precursors by gas drag. He concluded that the density in the accreting material is much lower than needed to melt silicates at the distance of the asteroid belt if the accreting matter had the cosmic ratio of dust to gas, and the mass of the solar nebula did not exceed 2 solar mass units. Melting of chondrule precursors is difficult because of their effective cooling by thermal radiation. Suppression of the radiative cooling of individual grains in dust swarms, which are opaque to thermal emission, was considered to be the only possible means of chondrule formation in solar nebula shocks. Previous models of solid grain melting in solar nebula shocks have neglected gas cooling behind the shock front, i.e., they considered adiabatic shocks. In this paper we show that large dust grains could be heated much stronger than was supposed by these authors, because of effects associated with the gas cooling.

Ruzmaikina, T. V.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Simultaneous radio and white light observations of the 1984 June 27 coronal mass ejection event

Two-dimensional images of radio bursts in the 25-50-MHz frequency range obtained with the SMM Coronagraph/Polarimeter and Mauna Loa K-coronameter during a coronal mass ejection event on June 27, 1984 are discussed. The present event is shown to be spatially and temporally associated with precursors in the form of meter-decameter type III bursts, soft X-ray emission, and a H-alpha flare spray. The results suggest gyrosychrotron emission from a plasmoid containing a magnetic field of about 2.5 G and nonthermal electrons with a number density of about 100,000/cu cm and energy of greater than about 350 keV.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Hematite Spherules in Basaltic Tephra Altered Under Aqueous, Acid-Sulfate Conditions on Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawaii: Possible Clues for the Occurrence of Hematite-Rich Spherules in the Burns Formation at Meridiani Planum, Mars

Iron-rich spherules (>90% Fe2O3 from electron microprobe analyses) approx.10-100 microns in diameter are found within sulfate-rich rocks formed by aqueous, acid-sulfate alteration of basaltic tephra on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii. Although some spherules are nearly pure Fe, most have two concentric compositional zones, with the core having a higher Fe/Al ratio than the rim. Oxide totals less than 100% (93-99%) suggest structural H2O and/or /OH. The transmission Moessbauer spectrum of a spherule-rich separate is dominated by a hematite (alpha-Fe2O3) sextet whose peaks are skewed toward zero velocity. Skewing is consistent with Al(3+) for Fe(3+) substitution and structural H2O and/or /OH. The grey color of the spherules implies specular hematite. Whole-rock powder X-ray diffraction spectra are dominated by peaks from smectite and the hydroxy sulfate mineral natroalunite as alteration products and plagioclase feldspar that was present in the precursor basaltic tephra. Whether spherule formation proceeded directly from basaltic material in one event (dissolution of basaltic material and precipitation of hematite spherules) or whether spherule formation required more than one event (formation of Fe-bearing sulfate rock and subsequent hydrolysis to hematite) is not currently constrained. By analogy, a formation pathway for the hematite spherules in sulfate-rich outcrops at Meridiani Planum on Mars (the Burns formation) is aqueous alteration of basaltic precursor material under acid-sulfate conditions. Although hydrothermal conditions are present on Mauna Kea, such conditions may not be required for spherule formation on Mars if the time interval for hydrolysis at lower temperatures is sufficiently long.

Morris, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Saharan Air and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Suppression From a Global Modeling Perspective

During summer 2006, the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) organized a field campaign in Africa called Special Observation Period (SOP-3), in which scientists in the field were involved in a number of surface network and aircraft measurements. One of the scientific goals of the campaign was to understand the nature and causes for tropical cyclogenesis originating out of African Easterly Waves (AEWs, westward propagating atmospheric disturbances sometimes associated with precursors of hurricanes), and the role that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL, a hot and dry air layer advecting large amounts of dust) can play in the formation or suppression of tropical cyclones. During the NAMMA campaign a high-resolution global model, the NASA GEOS-5, was operationally run by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) in support to the mission. The daily GEOS-5 forecasts were found to be very useful by decision-making scientists in the field as an aid to discriminate between developing and non-developing AEWs and plan the flight tracks. In the post-event analyses which were performed mostly by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, two events were highlighted: a non-developing AEW which appeared to have been suppressed by Saharan air, compared to a developing AEW which was the precursor of hurricane Helene. Both events were successfully predicted by the GEOS-5 during the real-time forecasts provided in support to the mission. In this work it is found that very steep moisture gradients and a strong thermal dipole, with relatively warm air in the mid-troposphere and cool air below, are associated with SAL in both the GEOS-5 forecasts and the NCEP analyses, even at -great distance- from the Sahara. The presence of these unusual thermodynamic features over the Atlantic Ocean, at several thousands of kilometers from the African coastline, is suggestive that SAL mixing is very minimal and that the model's capability of retaining the different properties of air masses during transport are important to represent effectively the role of dry air intrusions in the tropical circulation.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1994

The analysis of rapidly developing fog at the Kennedy Space Center

This report documents fog precursors and fog climatology at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida from 1986 to 1990. The major emphasis of this report focuses on rapidly developing fog events that would affect the less than 7-statute mile visibility rule for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landing at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). The Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU's) work is to: develop a data base for study of fog associated weather conditions relating to violations of this landing constraint; develop forecast techniques or rules-of-thumb to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to result in an acceptable condition at landing; validate the forecast techniques; and transition techniques to operational use. As part of the analysis the fog events were categorized as either advection, pre-frontal or radiation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed a fog climatological data base, identified fog precursors and developed forecaster tools and decision trees. The fog climatological analysis indicates that during the fog season (October to April) there is a higher risk for a visibility violation at KSC during the early morning hours (0700 to 1200 UTC), while 95 percent of all fog events have dissipated by 1600 UTC. A high number of fog events are characterized by a westerly component to the surface wind at KSC (92 percent) and 83 percent of the fog events had fog develop west of KSC first (up to 2 hours). The AMU developed fog decision trees and forecaster tools that would help the forecaster identify fog precursors up to 12 hours in advance. Using the decision trees as process tools ensures the important meteorological data are not overlooked in the forecast process. With these tools and a better understanding of fog formation in the local KSC area, the Shuttle weather support forecaster should be able to give the Launch and Flight Directors a better KSC fog forecast with more confidence.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Genetic control of Drosophila nerve cord development

The Drosophila ventral nerve cord has been a central model system for studying the molecular genetic mechanisms that control CNS development. Studies show that the generation of neural diversity is a multistep process initiated by the patterning and segmentation of the neuroectoderm. These events act together with the process of lateral inhibition to generate precursor cells (neuroblasts) with specific identities, distinguished by the expression of unique combinations of regulatory genes. The expression of these genes in a given neuroblast restricts the fate of its progeny, by activating specific combinations of downstream genes. These genes in turn specify the identity of any given postmitotic cell, which is evident by its cellular morphology and choice of neurotransmitter.

Review↗

NASA NTRS1984

Precipitation and kinematic structure of microburst producing storms

Single Doppler radar techniques are used to study the precipitation and kinematic structure of microburst-producing storms. Radar data collected by NCAR radars during the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) experiment are presented along with rawinsonde data taken at Denver, Colorado near the times of microburst occurrence. The radar reflectivity and velocity structure of the storms exhibited great variability, with no unique signature indicating a microburst was imminent. Detection of descending divergent flow is probably not a microburst forecasting tool, nor can the presence of rotation be used as a precursor at present. Convergent flow aloft was a prominent feature in all events. Its occurrence with a descending precipitation shaft and/or at high altitudes is a good indicator of a downdraft. It is concluded that convergent flow is a very important microburst forecasting clue, particularly when coupled with the entrainment of Theta(e) air and a dry-adiabatic lapse rate below cloud base.

Roberts, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Great magnetic storms

The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 to 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that: (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Particle and field signatures during pseudobreakup and major expansion onset

The temporal and spatial scales of the onset of two types of substorm events are investigated. These substorms were cases where the expansion onset had precursor localized auroral activation without significant negative bay enhancement, that is, 'pseudobreakup'. High-resolution energetic particle and magnetic field data at synchronous orbit are used for the analysis together with auroral and magnetic field data simultaneously taken from ground-based instrumentation. The auroral structure following the pseudobreakup significantly resembled the major expansion aurora, except in its spatial scale. Typical magnetospheric onset signatures such as tail current diversion, dipolarization, and injection were observed associated with some of the pseudobreakups. The major expansion, on the other hand, consisted of a number of rather localized injections and expansions, each of which had timescales of 2-8 min, a comparable timescale to that of pseudobreakups. This study shows that there does not appear to be any phenomenological differences between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets. The major difference between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets would be the number of occurrences, as well as the intensity and the scale size of the magnetospheric source.

Nakamura, Rumi↗

NASA NTRS2006

Non-nebular Origin of Dark Mantles Around Chondrules and Inclusions in CM Chondrites

Our examination of nine CM chondrites that span the aqueous alteration sequence leads us to conclude that compact dark fine mantles surrounding chondrules and inclusions in CM chondrites are not discrete fine-grained rims acquired in the solar nebula as modeled by Metzler et al. [Accretionary dust mantles in CM chondrites: evidence for solar nebula processes. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 56, 1992, 2873-28971. Nebular processes that lead to agglomeration produce materials with porosities far higher than those in the dark mantles. We infer that the mantles were produced from porous nebular materials on the CM parent asteroid by impact-compaction (a process that produces the lowest porosity adjacent to chondrules and inclusions). Compaction was followed by aqueous alteration that formed tochilinite, serpentine, Ni-bearing sulfide, and other secondary products in voids in the interchondrule regions. Metzler et al. reported a correlation between mantle thickness and the radius of the enclosed object. In Yamato 791 198 we find no correlation when all sizes of central objects and dark lumps are included but a significant correlation (r(sup 2) = 0.44) if we limit consideration to central objects with radii >35 microns; a moderate correlation is also found in QUE 97990. We suggest that impact-induced shear of a plum-pudding-like precursor produced the observed "mantles"; these were shielded from comminution during impact events by the adjacent stronger chondrules and inclusions. Some mantles in CM chondrites with low degrees of alteration show distinct layers that may largely reflect differences in porosity. Typically, a gray, uniform inner layer is surrounded by an outer layer consisting of darker silicates with BSE-bright speckles. The CM-chondrite objects characterized as "primary accretionary rocks" by Metzler et al. did not form in the nebula, but rather on the parent body. The absence of solar-flare particle tracks and solar-wind-implanted rare gases in these clasts reflect their lithified nature and low surface/volume ratios during the period when they resided in the regolith and were subject to irradiation by solar particles. The clasts are analogous to the light-colored metamorphosed clasts in ordinary-chondrite regolith breccias (which also lack solar-flare particle tracks and solar-wind gas).

Trigo-Rodriquez, Josep M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

Risk detection↗