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DOE OSTI2022

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solution Irregularity Remediation for Spatial Discretization Error Estimation for S N Transport Solutions

The discrete ordinates linear Boltzmann transport equation is typically solved in its spatially discretized form, incurring spatial discretization error. Quantification of this error for purposes such as adaptive mesh refinement or error analysis requires an a posteriori estimator, which utilizes the numerical solution to the spatially discretized equation to compute an estimate. Because the quality of the numerical solution informs the error estimate, irregularities, present in the true solution for any realistic problem configuration, tend to cause the largest deviation in the error estimate vis-a-vis the true error. In this paper, an analytical partial singular characteristic tracking (pSCT) procedure for reducing the estimator’s error is implemented within our novel residual source estimator for a zeroth-order discontinuous Galerkin scheme, at the additional cost of a single inner iteration. Here, a metric-based evaluation of the pSCT scheme versus the standard residual source estimator is performed over the parameter range of a Method of Manufactured Solutions test suite. The pSCT scheme generates near-ideal accuracy in the estimate in problems where the dominant source of the estimator’s error is the solution irregularity, namely, problems where the true solution is discontinuous and problems where the true solution’s first derivative is discontinuous and the scattering ratio is low. In problems where the scattering ratio is high and the true solution is discontinuous in the first derivative, the error in the scattering source, which is not converged by the pSCT scheme, is greater than the error incurred due to the irregularity. Ultimately, a pSCT scheme is judged to be useful for error estimation in problems where the computational cost of the scheme is justified. In the presence of many irregularities, such a scheme may be intractable for general use, but in benchmarks, as an analytical tool, or in problems that have nondissipative discontinuities, the scheme may prove invaluable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Perturbative readout-error mitigation for near-term quantum computers

Readout errors on near-term quantum computers can introduce significant error to the empirical probability distribution sampled from the output of a quantum circuit. These errors can be mitigated by classical postprocessing given the access of an experimental response matrix that describes the error associated with the measurement of each computational basis state. However, the resources required to characterize a complete response matrix and to compute the corrected probability distribution scale exponentially with the number of qubits, n . In this work, we modify standard matrix inversion techniques using perturbative approximations with significantly reduced complexity and bounded error when the likelihood of high-order bit-flip events is strongly suppressed. Given a characteristic error rate q , we discuss a method to recover the probability of the all-zeros bit string p 0 by sampling only a small subspace of the response matrix before inverting readout error, resulting in a relative speedup of poly [ 2 n / ( n w ) ] , which we motivate using a simplified error model for which the approximation incurs only O ( q w ) error for some integer w . We then provide a generalized technique to efficiently recover full output distributions with O ( q w ) error in the perturbative limit. These approximate techniques for readout-error correction may greatly accelerate near-term quantum computing applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience of the surface code to error bursts

Quantum error correction works effectively only if the error rate of gate operations is sufficiently low. However, some rare physical mechanisms can cause a temporary increase in the error rate that affects many qubits; examples include ionizing radiation in superconducting hardware and large deviations in the global control of atomic systems. We refer to such rare transient spikes in the gate error rate as error bursts. In this work, we investigate the resilience of the rotated surface code to generic error bursts. We assume that, after appropriate mitigation strategies, the spike in the error rate lasts for only a single syndrome-extraction cycle; we also assume that the enhanced error rate is uniform across the code block. Under these assumptions, and for a circuit-level depolarizing noise model, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine the regime in burst error rate and background error rate for which the memory time becomes arbitrarily long as the code block size grows. Our results indicate that suitable hardware mitigation methods combined with standard decoding methods may suffice to protect against transient error bursts in the rotated surface code.

Quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2023

Q-BEEP: Quantum Bayesian Error Mitigation Employing Poisson Modeling over the Hamming Spectrum

Quantum computing technology has grown rapidly in recent years, with new technologies being explored, error rates being reduced, and quantum processor’s qubit capacity growing. However, near-term quantum algorithms are still unable to be induced without compounding consequential levels of noise, leading to non-trivial erroneous results. Quantum Error Correction (in-situ error mitigation) and Quantum Error Mitigation (post-induction error mitigation) are promising fields of research within the quantum algorithm scene, aiming to alleviate quantum errors, increasing the overall fidelity and hence the overall quality of circuit induction. Earlier this year, a pioneering work, namely HAMMER, published in ASPLOS-22 demonstrated the existence of a latent structure regarding post-circuit induction errors when mapping to the Hamming spectrum. However, they intuitively assumed that errors occur in local clusters, and that at higher average Hamming distances this structure falls away. In this work, we show that such a correlation structure is not only local but extends certain non-local clustering patterns which can be precisely described by a Poisson distribution model taking the input circuit, the device run time status (i.e., calibration statistics) and qubit topology into consideration. Using this quantum error characterizing model, we developed an iterative algorithm over the generated Bayesian network state-graph for post-induction error mitigation. Thanks to more precise modeling of the error distribution latent structure and the new iterative method, our Q-Beep approach provides state of the art performance and can boost circuit execution fidelity by up to 234.6% on Bernstein-Vazirani circuits and on average 71.0% on QAOA solution quality, using 16 practical IBMQ quantum processors. For other benchmarks such as those in QASMBench, the fidelity improvement is up to 17.8%. Q-Beep is a light-weight post-processing technique that can be performed offline and remotely, making it a useful tool for quantum vendors to integrate and provide more reliable circuit induction results.

Stein, Samuel A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techniques for storing data to enhance recovery and detection of data corruption errors

Often there are errors when reading data from computer memory. To detect and correct these errors, there are multiple types of error correction codes. Disclosed is an error correction architecture that creates a codeword having a data portion and an error correction code portion. Swizzling rearranges the order of bits and distributes the bits among different codewords. Because the data is redistributed, a potential memory error of up to N contiguous bits, where N for example equals 2 times the number of codewords swizzled together, only affects up to, at most, two bits per swizzled codeword. This keeps the error within the error detecting capabilities of the error correction architecture. Furthermore, this can allow improved error correction and detection without requiring a change to error correcting code generators and checkers.

Mills, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techniques for storing data to enhance recovery and detection of data corruption errors

Mills, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Errors introduced in fission neutron spectrum measurements using a single reference

Measurements of physical quantities are often made relative to a reference quantity, simplifying the interpretation of the measurement and its uncertainties. However, if applied without careful considerations, this technique can carry with it a significant and complex systematic error that is usually ignored. For example, measurements of continuous neutron spectra relative to a reference spectrum yield a result that does not properly include the important effects of neutron scattering in the experimental environment. These effects act to distort the measured spectrum shape and create notable errors in spectrum-integrated quantities. While this effect is one of a series of known potential sources of systematic error including, but not limited to target impurities, angular distributions, incident beam flux, and others, the error introduced from differences in environmental scattering effects between the reference and desired spectra are frequently overlooked. In this work, we demonstrate the origin of this error using simulated data corresponding to measurements of the neutron-induced prompt fission neutron spectra of 233 U, 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu as well as the spontaneous fission neutron spectrum of 252 Cf. Errors in the spectrum shape can be as high as 10%–15% depending on the combination of incident and outgoing neutron energy. The spectrum integral and average spectrum energy also contain errors that change with incident neutron energy and can be as high as ~2%. Although this study is based on simulated data, we also show a method for proving that this error exists in an experimental data set and we show a correction that can be applied to results of this type to obtain a more accurate result, thereby largely removing systematic errors from environmental scattering effects. The potential for these kinds of errors should be considered in measurements producing continuous neutron spectra.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning quantum computers' errors using interpretable neural networks

Learning and reducing the errors and noise in quantum computing systems is necessary for achieving quantum computation’s promise. However, rapid advances in experimental quantum computing are making this task increasingly difficult, because state-of-the-art systems now contain hundreds of qubits and many characterization techniques are hard to apply at this scale. Furthermore, complex kinds of errors in these systems, such as crosstalk and non-Markovian effects, must be understood and decreased, but these errors are challenging to study with most existing methods. In this project, we explored using neural networks for scalable characterization of complex errors in quantum computers. We proposed and demonstrated characterizing a quantum computer’s errors with neural networks that have interpretable parameters corresponding to the rates of different kinds of errors, within a sparse Lindbladian parameterization for errors. To enable scaling to many qubit systems, these networks then predict how these errors combine within quantum circuits and impact their outcomes using an efficient approximations. We demonstrated these networks ability to learn coherent crosstalk errors and context-dependent errors in a simulated 4-qubit system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Assessment of the Error Due to Computing Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Porosity Using the Porosity Response Surface Approach

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment (WIPP PA) must predict the likelihood that radionuclides will escape into the biosphere via mechanisms that depend on geohydraulic flow. Ideally, one would predict the geohydraulic flow using coupled geohydraulic and geomechanical simulations, but such coupled simulations are not computationally tractable. Instead, Sandia has historically used a look-up table of porosities for a given fluid pressure and time, called the porosity response surface, but this approach can introduce porosity errors because it largely ignores the porosity’s dependence on the past fluid pressure history. This report discusses efforts to quantify these porosity errors for both the legacy and new porosity response surfaces. Six hundred different fluid pressure histories were fed through the legacy/new geomechanical model and the legacy/new porosity response surface to generate six hundred porosity error histories. The error associated with the legacy porosity surface was substantial, while the error associated with the new porosity surface was typically small, except when fluid pressures exceeded the lithostatic pressure at the repository. In response to the errors at high pressures, a preliminary study of the WIPP PA’s sensitivity to these porosity errors was conducted. The study found that reducing the porosity errors at high pressures negligibly affected predictions of radionuclide releases. Finally, an initial machine-learned model for porosity was developed. This ML model significantly reduced the porosity error at high pressures, but sizable errors remained, so more development is necessary before coupling an ML model to the geohydraulic model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Universally high transcript error rates in bacteria

Errors can occur at any level during the replication and transcription of genetic information. Genetic mutations derived mainly from replication errors have been extensively studied. However, fundamental details of transcript errors, such as their rate, molecular spectrum, and functional effects, remain largely unknown. To globally identify transcript errors, we applied an adapted rolling-circle sequencing approach to Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, Agrobacterium tumefaciens, and Mesoplasma florum, revealing transcript-error rates 3 to 4 orders of magnitude higher than the corresponding genetic mutation rates. The majority of detected errors would result in amino-acid changes, if translated. With errors identified from 9929 loci, the molecular spectrum and distribution of errors were uncovered in great detail. A G→A substitution bias was observed in M. florum, which apparently has an error-prone RNA polymerase. Surprisingly, an increased frequency of nonsense errors towards the 3' end of mRNAs was observed, suggesting a Nonsense-Mediated Decay-like quality-control mechanism in prokaryotes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Simulation-Based Framework for Sensor Error Impact Analysis in Smart Building Systems: A Case Study for a Demand-Controlled Ventilation System

Sensors are one of the fundamental components for sensor-rich controls in buildings but are prone to different errors. Existing studies show that sensor errors hold a place among top-priority faults in building systems. Before we take countermeasures to mitigate the sensor errors, it is vital to prioritize key sensors and quantify the collective impacts of concurrent sensor errors. In response to this, a simulation-based methodology is introduced to conduct a comprehensive sensor error impact analysis in building systems, which adds a stochastic sensor prioritization through a sensitivity analysis on top of a commonly used deterministic sensor error quantification. The synergies of these two parts help better interpret the sensor error impacts on building energy consumption, ventilation performance, thermal comfort, etc. A sensor-rich CO2-based Demand-Controlled Ventilation system is used as a case study to demonstrate the viability of the methodology as a proof-of-the-concept. The results show that the energy savings potential and ventilation performance are mostly influenced by the accuracy of the AHU outdoor airflow sensors. The accuracy of zone level airflow sensors has a negligible impact on both energy savings and ventilation performance. The accuracy of zone CO2 sensors has more influence on the ventilation performance compared with the accuracy of zone airflow sensors. Compared with the baseline case with zero errors, the largest deviation percentages could reach 16.90% and 94.32%, respectively, in terms of the Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) annual energy consumption and the Outdoor Air Ratio (OAR) when multiple key sensors suffer from normal error intensities simultaneously.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Logical error rates for the surface code under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions

With fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) on the horizon, it is critical to understand sources of logical errors in plausible hardware implementations of quantum error-correcting codes. Detailed error modeling of computational instructions on particular FTQC architectures will enable the better prediction of error propagation in FT-encoded quantum circuits while revealing where greater attention is needed in hardware design. In this work, we consider logical error rates for the surface code implemented on a hypothetical grid-based trapped-ion quantum charge-coupled device architecture. Specifically, we construct logical channels for the idling surface code and examine its diamond error under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions. We include the coherent dephasing noise that is known to accumulate during physical qubit idling and transport in these systems, determining idling and transport durations using the time-resolved output of an open-source trapped-ion surface code compiler. To estimate expectation values of logical Pauli observables following hardware circuits containing non-Clifford sources of noise, we utilize a Monte Carlo technique to sample from an underlying quasiprobability distribution of Clifford circuits that we independently simulate in a phase-sensitive fashion. We verify error suppression up to code distance 𝑑 = 11 at coherent dephasing rates near and below those of current-generation trapped-ion quantum computers and find that logical error rates align with those of analogous fully stochastic simulations in this regime. Exploring higher dephasing rates at 𝑑 = 3−5, we find evidence for growing coherent rotations about all three logical Pauli axes, increased diagonal logical error process matrix elements relative to those of stochastic simulations, and a reduced dephasing rate threshold. Overall, our work paves a way toward realistic hardware emulation of small fault-tolerant quantum processes, e.g., members of an FTQC instruction set.

Quantum benchmarking↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing quantum memory lifetime with measurement-free local error correction and reinforcement learning

Reliable quantum computation requires systematic identification and correction of errors that occur and accumulate in quantum hardware. To diagnose and correct such errors, standard quantum error-correcting protocols utilize global error information across the system obtained by mid-circuit readout of ancillary qubits. We investigate circuit-level error-correcting protocols that are measurement-free and based on local error information. Such a local error correction (LEC) circuit consists of faulty multi-qubit gates to perform both syndrome extraction and ancilla-controlled error removal. We develop and implement a reinforcement learning framework that takes a fixed set of faulty gates as inputs and outputs an optimized LEC circuit. To evaluate this approach, we quantitatively characterize an extension of logical qubit lifetime by a noisy LEC circuit. For the two-dimensional (2D) classical Ising model and four-dimensional toric code, our optimized LEC circuit performs better at extending a memory lifetime compared with a conventional LEC circuit based on Toom's rule in a subthreshold gate error regime. We further show that such circuits can be used to reduce the rate of mid-circuit readouts to preserve a 2D toric code memory. Lastly, we discuss the application of the LEC protocol on dissipative preparation of quantum states with topological phases.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Visual Comparison of Silent Error Propagation

High-performance computing (HPC) systems play a critical role in facilitating scientific discoveries. Their scale and complexity (e.g., the number of computational units and software stack) continue to grow as new systems are expected to process increasingly more data and reduce computing time. However, with more processing elements, the probability that these systems will experience a random bit-flip error that corrupts a program's output also increases, which is often recognized as silent data corruption. Analyzing the resiliency of HPC applications in extreme-scale computing to silent data corruption is crucial but difficult. An HPC application often contains a large number of computation units that need to be tested, and error propagation caused by error corruption is complex and difficult to interpret. Here, to accommodate this challenge, we propose an interactive visualization system that helps HPC researchers understand the resiliency of HPC applications and compare their error propagation. Our system models an application's error propagation to study a program's resiliency by constructing and visualizing its fault tolerance boundary. Coordinating with multiple interactive designs, our system enables domain experts to efficiently explore the complicated spatial and temporal correlation between error propagations. At the end, the system integrated a nonmonotonic error propagation analysis with an adjustable graph propagation visualization to help domain experts examine the details of error propagation and answer such questions as why an error is mitigated or amplified by program execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗