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Human Space Exploration: The Moon, Mars, and Beyond

America is returning to the Moon in preparation for the first human footprint on Mars, guided by the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration. This presentation will discuss NASA's mission, the reasons for returning to the Moon and going to Mars, and how NASA will accomplish that mission in ways that promote leadership in space and economic expansion on the new frontier. The primary goals of the Vision for Space Exploration are to finish the International Space Station, retire the Space Shuttle, and build the new spacecraft needed, to return people to the Moon and go to Mars. The Vision commits NASA and the nation to an agenda of exploration that also includes robotic exploration and technology development, while building on lessons learned over 50 years of hard-won experience. Why the Moon? Many questions about the Moon's potential resources and how its history is linked to that of Earth were spurred by the brief Apollo explorations of the 1960s and 1970s. This new venture will carry more explorers to more diverse landing sites with more capable tools and equipment for extended expeditions. The Moon also will serve as a training ground before embarking on the longer, more difficult trip to Mars. NASA plans to build a lunar outpost at one of the lunar poles, learn to live off the land, and reduce dePendence on Earth for longer missions. America needs to extend its ability to survive in hostile environments close to our home planet before astronauts will reach Mars, a planet very much like Earth. NASA has worked with scientists to define lunar exploration goals and is addressing the opportunities for a range of scientific study on Mars. In order to reach the Moon and Mars within a lifetime and within budget, NASA is building on common hardware, shared knowledge, and unique experience derived from the Apollo Saturn, Space Shuttle and contemporary commercial launch vehicle programs. The journeys to the Moon and Mars will require a variety of vehicles, including the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, which transports the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle, which transports the Lunar Surface Access Module. The architecture for the lunar missions will use one launch to ferry the crew into orbit, where it will rendezvous with the Lunar Module in the Earth Departure Stage, which will then propel the combination into lunar orbit. The imperative to explore space with the combination of astronauts and robots will be the impetus for inventions such as solar power and water and waste recycling. This next chapter in NASA's history promises to write the next chapter in American history, as well. It will require this nation to provide the talent to develop tools, machines, materials, processes, technologies, and capabilities that can benefit nearly all aspects of life on Earth. Roles and responsibilities are shared between a nationwide Government and industry team. The Exploration Launch Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center manages the design, development, testing, and evaluation of both vehicles and serves as lead systems integrator. A little over a year after it was chartered, the Exploration Launch Projects team is testing engine components, refining vehicle designs, performing wind tunnel tests, and building hardware for the first flight test of Ares I-l, scheduled for spring 2009. The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration lays out a roadmap for a long-term venture of discovery. This endeavor will inspire and attract the best and brightest students to power this nation successfully to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. If one equates the value proposition for space with simple dollars and cents, the potential of the new space economy is tremendous, from orbital space delivery services for the International Space Station to mining and solar energy collection on the Moon and asteroids. The Vision for Space Exploration is fundamentally about bringing the resources of the solar system within the economic sphere of humaind. Given the immense size of our solar system, the amount of available material and energy within it present an enormous economic opportunity.

Sexton, Jeffrey D.↗

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The chaotic obliquity of Mars

The discovery (by Laskar, 1989, 1990) that the evolution of the solar system is chaotic, made in a numerical integration of the averaged secular approximation of the equations of motions for the planets, was confirmed by Sussman and Wisdom (1992) by direct numerical integration of the whole solar system. This paper presents results of direct integrations of the rotation of Mars in the chaotically evolved planetary system, made using the same model as that used by Sussman and Wisdom. The numerical integration shows that the obliquity of Mars undergoes large chaotic variations, which occur as the system evolves in the chaotic zone associated with a secular spin-orbit resonance.

Touma, Jihad↗

Differential equations for cosmological correlators

Cosmological fluctuations retain a memory of the physics that generated them in their spatial correlations. The strength of correlations varies smoothly as a function of external kinematics, which is encoded in differential equations satisfied by cosmological correlation functions. In this work, we provide a broader perspective on the origin and structure of these differential equations. As a concrete example, we study conformally coupled scalar fields in a power-law cosmology. The wavefunction coefficients in this model have integral representations, with the integrands being the product of the corresponding flat-space results and “twist factors” that depend on the cosmological evolution. Similar twisted integrals arise for loop amplitudes in dimensional regularization, and their recent study has led to the discovery of rich mathematical structures and powerful new tools for computing multi-loop Feynman integrals in quantum field theory. The integrals of interest in cosmology are also part of a finite-dimensional basis of master integrals, which satisfy a system of first-order differential equations. We develop a formalism to derive these differential equations for arbitrary tree graphs. The results can be represented in graphical form by associating the singularities of the differential equations with a set of graph tubings. Upon differentiation, these tubings grow in a local and predictive fashion. In fact, a few remarkably simple rules allow us to predict — by hand — the equations for all tree graphs. While the rules of this “kinematic flow” are defined purely in terms of data on the boundary of the spacetime, they reflect the physics of bulk time evolution. We also study the analogous structures in tr ϕ 3 theory, and see some glimpses of hidden structure in the sum over planar graphs. This suggests that there is an autonomous combinatorial or geometric construction from which cosmological correlations, and the associated spacetime, emerge.

Cosmological models↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Short-Wave Infrared Upconverting Nanoparticles

Optical technologies enable real-time, noninvasive analysis of complex systems but are limited to discrete regions of the optical spectrum. While wavelengths in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) window (typically, 1700-3000 nm) should enable deep subsurface penetration and reduced photodamage, there are few luminescent probes that can be excited in this region. Here, we report the discovery of lanthanide-based upconverting nanoparticles (UCNPs) that efficiently convert 1740 or 1950 nm excitation to wavelengths compatible with conventional silicon detectors. Screening of Ln3+ ion combinations by differential rate equation modeling identifies Ho3+/Tm3+ or Tm3+ dopants with strong visible or NIR-I emission following SWIR excitation. Experimental upconverted photoluminescence excitation (U-PLE) spectra find that 10% Tm3+-doped NaYF4 core/shell UCNPs have the strongest 800 nm emission from SWIR wavelengths, while UCNPs with an added 2% or 10% Ho3+ show the strongest red emission when excited at 1740 or 1950 nm. Mechanistic modeling shows that addition of a low percentage of Ho3+ to Tm3+-doped UCNPs shifts their emission from 800 to 652 nm by acting as a hub of efficient SWIR energy acceptance and redistribution up to visible emission manifolds. Parallel experimental and computational analysis shows rate equation models are able to predict compositions for specific wavelengths of both excitation and emission. These SWIR-responsive probes open a new IR bioimaging window, and are responsive at wavelengths important for vision technologies.

Qi, Xiao↗

Accreting Millisecond Pulsars: Neutron Star Masses and Radii

High amplitude X-ray brightness oscillations during thermonuclear X-ray bursts were discovered with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) in early 1996. Spectral and timing evidence strongly supports the conclusion that these oscillations are caused by rotational modulation of the burst emission and that they reveal the spin frequency of neutron stars in low mass X-ray binaries. The recent discovery of X-ray burst oscillations from two accreting millisecond pulsars has confirmed this basic picture and provided a new route to measuring neutron star properties and constraining the dense matter equation of state. I will briefly summarize the current observational understanding of accreting millisecond pulsars, and describe recent attempts to determine the mass and radius of the neutron star in XTE J1814-338.

Strohmayer, Tod↗

Simulation-Based Analysis and Prediction of Thrust Vector Servoelastic Coupling

A method of analysis and prediction of servoelastic coupling in launch vehicles is presented, surveying the discovery and subsequent resolution of a predicted servoelastic resonance phenomenon affecting the NASA Space Launch System launch vehicle at specific flight conditions. A physics-based linearized multibody mechanization of the governing equations is combined with first principles analysis to demonstrate that antisymmetric bending of the solid rocket motors leads to a reduction of equivalent viscous modal damping through coupling with the thrust vector control actuators. The sensitivity to parameters and the effects of the resonance phenomenon on flight control performance and stability are confirmed through extensive simulation verification in the time and frequency domain. A novel enhancement in model fidelity that accounts for Coriolis effects of fluid flow on bending within the solid rocket motor case and nozzle is shown to add sufficient damping to reduce the risk of adverse control-structure interaction.

Jeb S Orr↗

A Proposal for an Integrated Geophysical Strategy to "Follow the Water" on Mars

The search for subsurface water has become a primary focus of Mars exploration. Its abundance and distribution (both as ground ice and groundwater) have important implications for understanding the geologic, hydrologic, and climatic evolution of the planet; the potential origin and continued survival of life; and the accessibility of a critical in situ resource for sustaining future human explorers. For these reasons, a principal goal of the Mars science, astrobiology, and the HEDS programs is to determine the 3-D distribution and state of subsurface H2O, at a resolution sufficient to permit reaching any desired volatile target by drilling. The three targets most often discussed are: groundwater, massive deposits of near-surface ground ice (associated with the ponded discharge of the outflow channels or the relic of a former ocean), and ice-saturated frozen ground. Based on the present best estimates of mean annual surface temperature, crustal thermal conductivity, geothermal heat flow, and groundwater freezing temperature, the mean thickness of frozen ground on Mars is expected to vary from approx. = 2.5 - 5 km at the equator to approx. = 6.5 - 13 km at the poles. However, natural variations in both crustal heat flow and thermal conductivity are likely to result in significant local departures from these predicted values. The recent discovery of "young" fluvial-like features, emanating from the slopes of local scarps, raises the possibility that liquid water may also exist episodically at shallow (approx. = 100 - 500 m) depth; however, the true nature and absolute age of these features remains highly uncertain. Although the belief that Mars is water-rich is supported by a wide variety geologic evidence, our ignorance about the heterogeneous nature and thermal evolution of the planet's crust effectively precludes geomorphic or theoretical attempts to quantitatively assess the current geographic and subsurface vertical distribution of ground ice and groundwater . For this reason, any exploration activity (such as drilling) whose success is contingent on the presence of subsurface water, must be preceded by a comprehensive high-resolution geophysical survey capable of assessing whether local reservoirs of water and ice actually exist. Terrestrial experience has demonstrated that the accurate identification of such targets is likely to require the application of multiple geophysical techniques. In this abstract we propose an integrated strategy for the geophysical exploration of Mars that we believe represents the fastest, most cost-effect, and technically capable approach to identifying the state and distribution of subsurface water. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Automated Knowledge Discovery From Simulators

A computational method, SimLearn, has been devised to facilitate efficient knowledge discovery from simulators. Simulators are complex computer programs used in science and engineering to model diverse phenomena such as fluid flow, gravitational interactions, coupled mechanical systems, and nuclear, chemical, and biological processes. SimLearn uses active-learning techniques to efficiently address the "landscape characterization problem." In particular, SimLearn tries to determine which regions in "input space" lead to a given output from the simulator, where "input space" refers to an abstraction of all the variables going into the simulator, e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and interaction equations. Landscape characterization can be viewed as an attempt to invert the forward mapping of the simulator and recover the inputs that produce a particular output. Given that a single simulation run can take days or weeks to complete even on a large computing cluster, SimLearn attempts to reduce costs by reducing the number of simulations needed to effect discoveries. Unlike conventional data-mining methods that are applied to static predefined datasets, SimLearn involves an iterative process in which a most informative dataset is constructed dynamically by using the simulator as an oracle. On each iteration, the algorithm models the knowledge it has gained through previous simulation trials and then chooses which simulation trials to run next. Running these trials through the simulator produces new data in the form of input-output pairs. The overall process is embodied in an algorithm that combines support vector machines (SVMs) with active learning. SVMs use learning from examples (the examples are the input-output pairs generated by running the simulator) and a principle called maximum margin to derive predictors that generalize well to new inputs. In SimLearn, the SVM plays the role of modeling the knowledge that has been gained through previous simulation trials. Active learning is used to determine which new input points would be most informative if their output were known. The selected input points are run through the simulator to generate new information that can be used to refine the SVM. The process is then repeated. SimLearn carefully balances exploration (semi-randomly searching around the input space) versus exploitation (using the current state of knowledge to conduct a tightly focused search). During each iteration, SimLearn uses not one, but an ensemble of SVMs. Each SVM in the ensemble is characterized by different hyper-parameters that control various aspects of the learned predictor - for example, whether the predictor is constrained to be very smooth (nearby points in input space lead to similar output predictions) or whether the predictor is allowed to be "bumpy." The various SVMs will have different preferences about which input points they would like to run through the simulator next. SimLearn includes a formal mechanism for balancing the ensemble SVM preferences so that a single choice can be made for the next set of trials.

Burl, Michael↗

The First Six Months of Iapetus Observations by the Cassini ISS Camera

Since Saturn arrival in June 2004, Iapetus has been studied intensively by the Cassini ISS camera [1] at various ranges. The first of two relatively close flybys in the primary mission occurred on Dec 31, 2004 at an altitude of approx.123,400 km over the northern leading hemisphere, resulting in images with a minimum pixel scale of 740 m. Detailed results of this flyby are given in [2], while this abstract covers the observations obtained earlier. Among the most important discoveries are: (a) Four giant impact basins with diameters between 390 and 550 km were detected, three of them are located in the dark terrain [3]. (b) Data revealed a >1300 km long ridge that marks exactly Iapetus' equator within the dark terrain. Individual mountains within the western part of the ridge reach heights of approx.20 km over surrounding terrain [3]. (c) Impact craters were confirmed to be the main geological feature within the dark terrain and at high southern latitudes. (d) There are numerous craters with dark walls roughly facing towards the central parts of the dark hemisphere [3]. (e) Almost all parts of Iapetus have been imaged at least at low resolution (< 60 km/pxl).

Denk, T.↗

Scaling relations in the equation of state, thermal expansion, and melting of metals

A simple and yet quite accurate prediction of volume as a function of pressure for metals and alloys is presented. Thermal expansion coefficients and melting temperatures are predicted by simple, analytic expressions and results compare favorably with experiment for a broad range of metals. All of these predictions are made possible by the discovery of universality in binding energy relations for metals.

Guinea, F.↗

Detection With Rhessi of High Frequency X-ray Oscillations in the Tail of the 2004 Hyperflare From SGR 1806-20

The recent discovery of high frequency oscillations in giant flares from SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 may be the first direct detection of vibrations in a neutron star crust. If this interpretation is correct it offers a novel means of testing the neutron star equation of state, crustal breaking strain, and magnetic field configuration. Using timing data from RHESSI, we have confirmed the detection of a 92.5 Hz Quasi-Periodic Oscillation (QPO) in the tail of the SGR 1806-20 giant flare. We also find another, stronger, QPO at higher energies, at 626.5 Hz. Both QPOs are visible only at particular (but different) rotational phases, implying an association with a specific area of the neutron star surface or magnetosphere. At lower frequencies we confirm the detection of an 18 Hz QPO, at the same rotational phase as the 92.5 Hz QPO, and report the additional presence of a broad 26 Hz QPO. We are however unable to make a robust confirmation of the presence of a 30 Hz QPO, despite higher count rates. We discuss our results in the light of neutron star vibration models.

Watts, Anna L.↗

Accuracy, transferability, and computational efficiency of interatomic potentials for simulations of carbon under extreme conditions

Large-scale atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide an exceptional opportunity to advance the fundamental understanding of carbon under extreme conditions of high pressures and temperatures. However, the fidelity of these simulations depends heavily on the accuracy of classical interatomic potentials governing the dynamics of many-atom systems. Here, this study critically assesses several popular empirical potentials for carbon, as well as machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), in their ability to simulate a range of physical properties at high pressures and temperatures, including the diamond equation of state, its melting line, shock Hugoniot, uniaxial compressions, and the structure of liquid carbon. Empirical potentials fail to accurately predict the behavior of carbon under high pressure–temperature conditions. In contrast, MLIPs demonstrate quantum accuracy, with Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potential (SNAP) and atomic cluster expansion (ACE) being the most accurate in reproducing the density functional theory results. ACE displays remarkable transferability despite not being specifically trained for extreme conditions. Furthermore, ACE and SNAP exhibit superior computational performance on graphics processing unit-based systems in billion atom MD simulations, with SNAP emerging as the fastest. In addition to offering practical guidance in selecting an interatomic potential with a fine balance of accuracy, transferability, and computational efficiency, this work also highlights transformative opportunities for groundbreaking scientific discoveries facilitated by quantum-accurate MD simulations with MLIPs on emerging exascale supercomputers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discovery of Probabilistic Dirichlet-to-Neumann Maps on Graphs

Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps enable the coupling of multiphysics simulations across computational subdomains by ensuring continuity of state variables and fluxes at artificial interfaces. We present a novel method for learning Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes, specifically for problems where the data obey a conservation law arising from an underlying partial differential equation. Our approach combines discrete exterior calculus and nonlinear optimal recovery to infer relationships between vertex and edge values. This framework yields data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification across the entire graph, even when observations are limited to a subset of vertices and edges. By minimizing the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm while penalizing kernel complexity through maximum likelihood estimation, our method ensures that the resulting surrogate strictly enforces conservation laws without overfitting. We demonstrate our method on two representative applications: subsurface flow in fracture networks and arterial blood flow. Finally, the results demonstrate that the method maintains high accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates even under severe data scarcity, highlighting its potential for scientific applications where limited data and reliable uncertainty quantification are critical.

Dirichlet-to-Neumann map↗

Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity Computer Program: Theory, Software Description and Example

The access of charged particles to the earth from space through the geomagnetic field has been of interest since the discovery of the cosmic radiation. The early cosmic ray measurements found that cosmic ray intensity was ordered by the magnetic latitude and the concept of cutoff rigidity was developed. The pioneering work of Stoermer resulted in the theory of particle motion in the geomagnetic field, but the fundamental mathematical equations developed have 'no solution in closed form'. This difficulty has forced researchers to use the 'brute force' technique of numerical integration of individual trajectories to ascertain the behavior of trajectory families or groups. This requires that many of the trajectories must be traced in order to determine what energy (or rigidity) a charged particle must have to penetrate the magnetic field and arrive at a specified position. It turned out the cutoff rigidity was not a simple quantity but had many unanticipated complexities that required many hundreds if not thousands of individual trajectory calculations to solve. The accurate calculation of particle trajectories in the earth's magnetic field is a fundamental problem that limited the efficient utilization of cosmic ray measurements during the early years of cosmic ray research. As the power of computers has improved over the decades, the numerical integration procedure has grown more tractable, and magnetic field models of increasing accuracy and complexity have been utilized. This report is documentation of a general FORTRAN computer program to trace the trajectory of a charged particle of a specified rigidity from a specified position and direction through a model of the geomagnetic field.

Smart, D. F.↗

The Event Horizon General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Code Comparison Project

Recent developments in compact object astrophysics, especially the discovery of merging neutron stars by LIGO, the imaging of the black hole in M87 by the Event Horizon Telescope, and high- precision astrometry of the Galactic Center at close to the event horizon scale by the GRAVITY experiment motivate the development of numerical source models that solve the equations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD). Here we compare GRMHD solutions for the evolution of a magnetized accretion flow where turbulence is promoted by the magnetorotational instability from a set of nine GRMHD codes: Athena++, BHAC, Cosmos++, ECHO, H-AMR, iharm3D, HARM-Noble, IllinoisGRMHD, and KORAL. Agreement among the codes improves as resolution increases, as measured by a consistently applied, specially developed set of code performance metrics. We conclude that the community of GRMHD codes is mature, capable, and consistent on these test problems.

relativistic processes↗

Derivation of physical equations for high-speed laser welding using large language models

It is challenging to formulate complex physical phenomena that occur in a manufacturing process, particularly when the available data are limited, rendering conventional data-driven approaches ineffective. This study aims to predict humping onset in high-speed laser welding by introducing a novel framework, namely text-to-equations generative pre-trained transformer (T2EGPT). This method leverages the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), in combination with sparse experimental data and enriched literature data, to derive an interpretable and generalizable equation for predicting humping initiation. By capturing key correlations among physical parameters, T2EGPT generates a compact and dimensionless expression that accurately predicts hump formation. The equation reveals that humping arises from the interplay between inertia-driven backward melt flow and capillary-driven surface stabilization, where inertial forces drive molten metal backward and capillary forces resist surface deformation. Furthermore, compared to traditional data-driven models, T2EGPT demonstrates enhanced predictive accuracy and cross-material transferability. More broadly, this study highlights the potential of LLMs to integrate textual information with data-driven discovery, enabling the extraction of physical laws in data-scarce scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗