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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

The macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles simulated by a cumulus ensemble model

A number of simulation experiments are performed with the 2D UCLA cumulus ensemble model to study the macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of different large-scale and underlying surface conditions. Specifically, the modulation of cumulus activity by the imposed large-scale processes and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget are investigated in detail. In all simulations, cumulus convection is rather strongly modulated by large-scale advective processes in spite of the existence of some nonmodulated high-frequency fluctuations. The modulation exhibits some phase delays, however, when the basic wind shear is strong. This is presumably associated with the existence of mesoscale convective organization. The EKE budget analysis shows that the net eddy buoyancy generation rate is nearly zero for a wind range of cumulus ensembles.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2014

Propellant Handler's Ensemble (PHE) Aka Self-Contained Atmospheric Protective Ensemble (SCAPE), Ventilator Improvement Study Project

The overall objective for this project is to evaluate two candidate alternatives for the existing Propellant Handler's Ensemble (PHE) escape ventilator. The new candidate ventilators use newer technology with similar quantities of air at approximately half the weight of the current ventilator. Ventilators are typically used to ingress/egress a hazardous work area when hard line air is provided at the work area but the hose is not long enough to get the operator to and from the staging area to the work area. The intent of this test is to verify that the new ventilators perform as well as or better than the current ventilators in maintaining proper oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the PHE during a typical use for the rated time period (~10 minutes). We will evaluate two new units comparing them to the existing unit. Subjects will wear the Category I version of the Propellant Handler's Ensemble with the rear suit pouch snapped.

PHE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Component Particle Structure in Heterogeneous Disordered Ensembles Extracted from High-Throughput Fluctuation X-Ray Scattering

The ring angular correlation function is a characteristic feature determined by the particle structure. Averaging over a large number of ring angular correlation functions calculated from x-ray diffraction patterns will cancel out the cross correlations between different particles and converge to the autocorrelation functions of single particles. Applied on heterogeneous disordered ensembles, the retrieved function is a linear combination of a single-particle autocorrelation function multiplied by the molar ratios in a heterogeneous system. Using this relation, the ring angular correlation functions of the individual component particles in the heterogeneous system can be retrieved through the high throughput fluctuation x-ray scattering technique. This method is demonstrated with a simulated heterogeneous system composed of nanorods, nanoprism, and nanorice.

Fluctuation X-ray Scattering, high throughput, Het↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of a Computational Framework for Bayesian Inverse Problems: Ensemble Kalman Updates and MAP Estimators under Mesh Refinement

This paper analyzes a popular computational framework to solve infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, discretizing the prior and the forward model in a finite-dimensional weighted inner product space. We demonstrate the benefit of working on a weighted space by establishing operator-norm bounds for finite element and graph-based discretizations of Matérn-type priors and deconvolution forward models. For linear-Gaussian inverse problems, we develop a general theory to characterize the error in the approximation to the posterior. We also embed the computational framework into ensemble Kalman methods and MAP estimators for nonlinear inverse problems. Furthermore, our operator-norm bounds for prior discretizations guarantee the scalability and accuracy of these algorithms under mesh refinement.

Bayesian inverse problem↗
DOE OSTI2018

An efficient, partitioned ensemble algorithm for simulating ensembles of evolutionary MHD flows at low magnetic Reynolds number

Studying the propagation of uncertainties in a nonlinear dynamical system usually involves generating a set of samples in the stochastic parameter space and then repeated simulations with different sampled parameters. The main difficulty faced in the process is the excessive computational cost. In this paper, we present an efficient, partitioned ensemble algorithm to determine multiple realizations of a reduced Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) system, which models MHD flows at low magnetic Reynolds number. The algorithm decouples the fully coupled problem into two smaller subphysics problems, which reduces the size of the linear systems that to be solved and allows the use of optimized codes for each subphysics problem. Moreover, the resulting coefficient matrices are the same for all realizations at each time step, which allows faster computation of all realizations and significant savings in computational cost. We prove this algorithm is first order accurate and long time stable under a time step condition. Numerical examples are provided to verify the theoretical results and demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm.

Jiang, Nan↗
DOE OSTI2016

Pushing the size limit of de novo structure ensemble prediction guided by sparse SDSL-EPR restraints to 200 residues: The monomeric and homodimeric forms of BAX

Structure determination remains a challenge for many biologically important proteins. In particular, proteins that adopt multiple conformations often evade crystallization in all biologically relevant states. Although computational de novo protein folding approaches often sample biologically relevant conformations, the selection of the most accurate model for different functional states remains a formidable challenge, in particular, for proteins with more than about 150 residues. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy can obtain limited structural information for proteins in well-defined biological states and thereby assist in selecting biologically relevant conformations. The present study demonstrates that de novo folding methods are able to accurately sample the folds of 192-residue long soluble monomeric Bcl-2-associated X protein (BAX). The tertiary structures of the monomeric and homodimeric forms of BAX were predicted using the primary structure as well as 25 and 11 EPR distance restraints, respectively. The predicted models were subsequently compared to respective NMR/X-ray structures of BAX. EPR restraints improve the protein-size normalized root-mean-square-deviation (RMSD100) of the most accurate models with respect to the NMR/crystal structure from 5.9 Å to 3.9 Å and from 5.7 Å to 3.3 Å, respectively. Additionally, the model discrimination is improved, which is demonstrated by an improvement of the enrichment from 5% to 15% and from 13% to 21%, respectively.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electrolyte pore/solution partitioning by expanded grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo simulation

Using a newly developed grand canonical Monte Carlo approach based on fractional exchanges of dissolved ions and water molecules, we studied equilibrium partitioning of both components between laterally extended apolar confinements and surrounding electrolyte solution. Accurate calculations of the Hamiltonian and tensorial pressure components at anisotropic conditions in the pore required the development of a novel algorithm for a self-consistent correction of nonelectrostatic cut-off effects. At pore widths above the kinetic threshold to capillary evaporation, the molality of the salt inside the confinement grows in parallel with that of the bulk phase, but presents a nonuniform width-dependence, being depleted at some and elevated at other separations. The presence of the salt enhances the layered structure in the slit and lengthens the range of inter-wall pressure exerted by the metastable liquid. Solvation pressure becomes increasingly repulsive with growing salt molality in the surrounding bath. Depending on the sign of the excess molality in the pore, the wetting free energy of pore walls is either increased or decreased by the presence of the salt. Because of simultaneous rise in the solution surface tension, which increases the free-energy cost of vapor nucleation, the rise in the apparent hydrophobicity of the walls has not been shown to enhance the volatility of the metastable liquid in the pores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of a New Ensemble Conserving Quantum Dynamics Simulation Algorithm to Liquid para-Hydrogen and ortho-Deuterium

Here, we apply the Feynman-Kleinert Quasi-Classical Wigner (FK-QCW) method developed in our previous work [Smith et al., J. Chem. Phys. 142, 244112 (2015)] for the determination of the dynamic structure factor of liquid para-hydrogen and ortho-deuterium at state points of (T = 20.0 K, n = 21.24 nm -3 ) and (T = 23.0 K, n = 24.61 nm -3 ), respectively. When applied to this challenging system, it is shown that this new FK-QCW method consistently reproduces the experimental dynamic structure factor reported by Smith et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 140, 034501 (2014)] for all momentum transfers considered. Moreover, this shows that FK-QCW provides a substantial improvement over the Feynman-Kleinert linearized path-integral method, in which purely classical dynamics are used. Furthermore, for small momentum transfers, it is shown that FK-QCW provides nearly the same results as ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD), thus suggesting that FK-QCW provides a potentially more appealing algorithm than RPMD since it is not formally limited to correlation functions involving linear operators.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗