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NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known Gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions (e.g., Miller 1994). Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz (1963) model as well as more realistic models of the oceans (Evensen and van Leeuwen 1996) and atmosphere (Houtekamer and Mitchell 1998). A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter equations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members (Burgers 1998). The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to quite puzzling in that results of state estimate are worse than for their filter analogue (Evensen 1997). In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use Lorenz (1963) model to test and compare the behavior of a variety implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of an Inertial Sensor-based Methodology for Spacesuited Geology Task Assessments during Simulated Lunar Extravehicular Activities

Lunar surface exploration during Artemis missions will require the specific skill set of geology sampling. Apollo astronauts had extensive training and used specialized tools to collect lunar rocks, core samples, pebbles, sand, and dust. The inflexibility of the pressurized Apollo spacesuits forced sampling to be taken at a standstill posture. However, new exploration spacesuits are expected to incorporate advanced materials and joint bearings, allowing for greater mobility and a wider range of functional postures. Thus, science and exploration during Artemis missions will likely involve a variety of standing, squatting, and kneeling postures. In preparation for future lunar exploration missions, NASA provides geologic training to astronauts and other mission personnel. This professional training with a spacesuit in simulated lunar environments will enhance performance and reduce risk of injury to astronauts on the lunar surface. However, anecdotally, untrained or newly trained people wearing prototype planetary spacesuits have been observed to performing motions differently than a trained geologist would when conducting the same geology sampling tasks. Therefore, a tool for evaluating geology postures at extravehicular activity (EVA) training facilities becomes required. In this paper, we introduce a novel inertial measurement unit (IMU)-based method of geology task assessments in spacesuited conditions during simulated lunar EVAs. As a case study, two subjects (one geologist and one non-geologist) participated and donned the Mark III prototype planetary spacesuit during offloading with the spreader bar gimbal in NASA’s Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS). For automated geology task assessments, the spacesuit was instrumented with three wireless IMUs (APDM Opal, OR, USA): one on the chest and one each on the left and right ankle bearings. Then subjects performed geology tasks using various tools (rake, trench, hammer chisel, scoop, and drive tube) for 45 minutes each. The chest IMU measured the torso tilt angle in the sagittal plane. We used an ensemble learning method with the ankle IMUs to discriminate between standing and kneeling activities. IMU data were processed using custom MATLAB (Mathworks, MA, USA) software. In our case study, the developed method was able to discriminate differences in standing and kneeling activity levels between subjects who were all highly experienced with spacesuited testing. Our preliminary data showed one subject maintained the constant and lower range of the upper body tilt angle while both standing and kneeling, while the other subject showed more variation of the upper body tilt angle and preferred bending the upper body rather than changing from standing to kneeling posture and vice versa. While geology experience may be a factor, these results need further investigation as suit sizing and ARGOS offloading configurations have been proven to have a significant influence on suited ARGOS tasks. Also, more subjects will be needed to complete these tasks for validation. IMU-based geology task assessments can provide useful information for geology training programs. Additionally, our IMU-based posture analysis can provide new insights into how to evaluate spacesuited geology task characteristics of astronauts during simulated lunar EVAs.

Kyoung Jae Kim↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), has typically limited machine learning (ML) in space studies and further study of radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNAseq) data from 6 mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) with a total of 113 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. Data was normalized within each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. The top MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using a Random Forest (RF) classifier with 5-fold cross validation (CV). The ML-based gene sets were further compared against differential gene expression results from individual GLDS. CV training using the top 100 MRMR genes show averages of 86% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the validation set over 5 folds (Figure 1A). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 811 or 68 DEGs overlapping between at least 2 or 3 studies, respectively (Figure 1B). Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism. Set analysis between the MRMR features and the DEGs showed 60 or 8 genes overlapping with at least 1 or 2 studies, respectively. MRMR feature selection and ensemble ML methods (e.g. RF) improve performance relative to a Naïve Bayes classifier when NGS data sets are analyzed. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise ratio. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from RNASeq analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore spaceflight relevant genes and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations. ML coupled with existing analytical methods enhances understanding of disease by revealing common underlying pathways across datasets.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS1978

Modeling the effects of high-G stress on pilots in a tracking task

Air-to-air tracking experiments were conducted at the Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories using both fixed and moving base dynamic environment simulators. The obtained data, which includes longitudinal error of a simulated air-to-air tracking task as well as other auxiliary variables, was analyzed using an ensemble averaging method. In conjunction with these experiments, the optimal control model is applied to model a human operator under high-G stress.

Korn, J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Online Bagging and Boosting

Bagging and boosting are two of the most well-known ensemble learning methods due to their theoretical performance guarantees and strong experimental results. However, these algorithms have been used mainly in batch mode, i.e., they require the entire training set to be available at once and, in some cases, require random access to the data. In this paper, we present online versions of bagging and boosting that require only one pass through the training data. We build on previously presented work by presenting some theoretical results. We also compare the online and batch algorithms experimentally in terms of accuracy and running time.

Oza, Nikunji C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Tracking Energy Flow Using a Volumetric Acoustic Intensity Imager (VAIM)

A new measurement device has been invented at the Naval Research Laboratory which images instantaneously the intensity vector throughout a three-dimensional volume nearly a meter on a side. The measurement device consists of a nearly transparent spherical array of 50 inexpensive microphones optimally positioned on an imaginary spherical surface of radius 0.2m. Front-end signal processing uses coherence analysis to produce multiple, phase-coherent holograms in the frequency domain each related to references located on suspect sound sources in an aircraft cabin. The analysis uses either SVD or Cholesky decomposition methods using ensemble averages of the cross-spectral density with the fixed references. The holograms are mathematically processed using spherical NAH (nearfield acoustical holography) to convert the measured pressure field into a vector intensity field in the volume of maximum radius 0.4 m centered on the sphere origin. The utility of this probe is evaluated in a detailed analysis of a recent in-flight experiment in cooperation with Boeing and NASA on NASA s Aries 757 aircraft. In this experiment the trim panels and insulation were removed over a section of the aircraft and the bare panels and windows were instrumented with accelerometers to use as references for the VAIM. Results show excellent success at locating and identifying the sources of interior noise in-flight in the frequency range of 0 to 1400 Hz. This work was supported by NASA and the Office of Naval Research.

Klos, Jacob↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable Tree-Based and Graph Neural Network Approaches for Novel Solid State Electrolyte Design

All-solid-state batteries with Li metal anode can address the safety issues surrounding traditional Li-ion batteries as well as the demand for higher energy densities. However, the development of solid electrolytes simultaneously possessing high ionic conductivity and good chemical and electrochemical stabilities has proven to be a challenge. I will present our informatics approach to explore the Li compound space for promising solid electrolytes using high-throughput multi-property screening and interpretable machine learning. This is accomplished through the generation of a large database of battery-related materials properties of Li compounds. We use tree-based ensemble learning methods and graph neural network approaches to accurately learn relationships between crystal structures and corresponding thermodynamic and kinetic properties, with interpretability being a major focus. Our models give us the ability to enable rapid discovery and design of novel solid-state battery chemistries.

Materials discovery↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable ML Approaches for Novel Solid State Electrolyte Design

Shreyas J Honrao↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development of Super Ensemble-Based Aviation Turbulence Guidance (SEATG) for Air Traffic Management

A new method for forecasting turbulence is developed and evaluated using the high resolution weather model and in situ turbulence observations from commercial aircraft. The new method is an ensemble of various turbulence metrics from multiple time-lagged ensemble forecasts created using a sequence of four procedures. These include weather modeling, calculation of turbulence metrics, mapping the metrics into a common turbulence-scale, and production of final forecast. The new method uses similar methodology as current operational turbulence forecast with three improvements. First, it uses a higher resolution ((delta)x = 3 km) weather model to capture cloud resolving scale phenomena. Second, it computes the metrics for multiple forecasts that are combined at the same valid time resulting in a time-lagged ensemble of multiple turbulence metrics. Finally, it provides both deterministic and probabilistic turbulence forecasts. Results show the new forecasts match well with observed radar reflectivity along a surface front as well as convectively induced turbulence outside the clouds on research period. Overall performance skill of the new turbulence forecast compared with the observed EDR data during the research period is superior to any single turbulence metric. The probabilistic turbulence forecast is used in an example air traffic management application for creating a wind-optimal route considering turbulence information. The wind-optimal route passing through areas of 50% potential for moderate-or-greater turbulence and the lateral turbulence avoidance routes starting from three different waypoints along the wind-optimal route from Los Angeles international airport to John F. Kennedy international airport are calculated using different turbulence forecasts. This example shows additional flight time is required to avoid potential turbulence encounters.

modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Representation of Land Surface Processes Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART)

The land surface is a critical part of the earth system as processes related to water, carbon, energy and nitrogen cycling have important implications for climate forcing, air quality, water availability and seasonal atmospheric forecasting. Despite advances in land surface modeling, land surface model performance is often limited because of errors related to initial and boundary conditions, model structure, and parameters. Data assimilation (DA) techniques combined with an expanding network of earth system observations present an opportunity to reduce these errors and improve simulations. Here, we emphasize the implementation of tools and approaches to overcome challenges related to land DA to constrain carbon and water cycling. In particular, we discuss the implementation of adaptive inflation to modify ensemble spread in response to time-varying networks of gridded observations. We also discuss methods to generate ensemble spread through boundary condition (meteorology) forcing that can be applied to site-level applications. Next, we describe the application of vertical localization upon surface soil moisture observations, and forward operators specifically designed for the assimilation of snow and solar-induced fluorescence observations. Finally, we discuss the potential benefit of a quantile conserving filter used to update bounded quantities (state or parameter values).

Brett Raczka↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Laser transit anemometer software development program

Algorithms were developed for the extraction of two components of mean velocity, standard deviation, and the associated correlation coefficient from laser transit anemometry (LTA) data ensembles. The solution method is based on an assumed two-dimensional Gaussian probability density function (PDF) model of the flow field under investigation. The procedure consists of transforming the data ensembles from the data acquisition domain (consisting of time and angle information) to the velocity space domain (consisting of velocity component information). The mean velocity results are obtained from the data ensemble centroid. Through a least squares fitting of the transformed data to an ellipse representing the intersection of a plane with the PDF, the standard deviations and correlation coefficient are obtained. A data set simulation method is presented to test the data reduction process. Results of using the simulation system with a limited test matrix of input values is also given.

Abbiss, John B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Experimental studies of the properties of 'simulated' upstream turbulence using a statistical multipoint method

In this report we present a different approach to the multipoint measurement of magnetic fields and plasma. This is called the multi-spacecraft ensemble technique (MET), essentially free of process restrictions, such as linearity and stationarity. We comprehensively discuss the other conditions and limitations intrinsic to this statistical method. We also show the results of the application of the ensemble method to the synthetic data obtained from a hybrid simulation in the region upstream of a quasi-parallel shock. The important implications of the above approach for the CLUSTER mission are discussed.

Orlowski, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗

NASA NTRS2006

Efficient Agent-Based Cluster Ensembles

Numerous domains ranging from distributed data acquisition to knowledge reuse need to solve the cluster ensemble problem of combining multiple clusterings into a single unified clustering. Unfortunately current non-agent-based cluster combining methods do not work in a distributed environment, are not robust to corrupted clusterings and require centralized access to all original clusterings. Overcoming these issues will allow cluster ensembles to be used in fundamentally distributed and failure-prone domains such as data acquisition from satellite constellations, in addition to domains demanding confidentiality such as combining clusterings of user profiles. This paper proposes an efficient, distributed, agent-based clustering ensemble method that addresses these issues. In this approach each agent is assigned a small subset of the data and votes on which final cluster its data points should belong to. The final clustering is then evaluated by a global utility, computed in a distributed way. This clustering is also evaluated using an agent-specific utility that is shown to be easier for the agents to maximize. Results show that agents using the agent-specific utility can achieve better performance than traditional non-agent based methods and are effective even when up to 50% of the agents fail.

Agogino, Adrian↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ensemble Monte Carlo characterization of graded Al(x)Ga(1-x)As heterojunction barriers

The current-voltage characteristics of graded Al(x)Ga(1-x)As heterojunction barriers were investigated using a self-consistent ensemble Monte Carlo method. Results are presented for barriers with two doping levels (10 to the 15th/cu cm and 10 to the 17th/cu cm) and two barrier heights (100 and 265 meV). It was found that the lower barrier structure exhibited little rectification at room temperature at both doping levels, while the higher barrier exhibited considerable rectification. The structures with the lower doping value exhibited a smaller current in both forward and reverse regions, due to space-charge effect. The results of studies of the energy and momentum distribution functions along the barrier indicate that the assumption of drifted Maxwellian distribution used in energy-momentum models is not justified for Gamma valley electrons.

Kamoua, R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Aerosol Measurements of the Fine and Ultrafine Particle Content of Lunar Regolith

We report the first quantitative measurements of the ultrafine (20 to 100 nm) and fine (100 nm to 20 m) particulate components of Lunar surface regolith. The measurements were performed by gas-phase dispersal of the samples, and analysis using aerosol diagnostic techniques. This approach makes no a priori assumptions about the particle size distribution function as required by ensemble optical scattering methods, and is independent of refractive index and density. The method provides direct evaluation of effective transport diameters, in contrast to indirect scattering techniques or size information derived from two-dimensional projections of high magnification-images. The results demonstrate considerable populations in these size regimes. In light of the numerous difficulties attributed to dust exposure during the Apollo program, this outcome is of significant importance to the design of mitigation technologies for future Lunar exploration.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗