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Distributed Wind and Impacts of FERC Order No. 2222 Implementation

In September of 2020, FERC issued Order No. 2222, directing ISOs to adjust their long-standing tariffs and participation models to enable the operation of distributed energy resource (DER) aggregators in wholesale energy markets. The rule sought to bring wholesale markets under its jurisdiction up to speed with existing expansion of DERs across the United States and to capture the potential benefits that these technologies can provide. This report describes the implementation of FERC Order No. 2222 and the compliance plans that have been submitted so far, attempt to understand the potential impact the rule may have on distributed wind, and provide opportunities for future work to analyze and encourage deployment under these policy conditions. There is an information gap for the type of market interactions distributed wind may have or how it could be best deployed in DER aggregations under future market conditions. There is significant potential for profitable deployment of distributed wind in states that are served by ISOs and covered under Order No. 2222. Distributed wind and other DERs provide local energy that does not need to travel those distances and avoids the losses typically associated with long-distance energy transmission. Deployment of distributed wind can benefit communities that exist away from large load centers by providing local, clean, and affordable energy. Aggregating DERs that include distributed wind could provide these benefits across multiple far-ranging communities if they have access to participate in wholesale markets. A new baseline valuation of distributed wind in areas covered by Order No. 2222 is required to accurately gauge where it is profitable and how it can compete or complement existing or future DER deployment, including as part of an aggregate.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market

In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.

Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗

FORCE Regression Testing

Via programs including the Light Water Reactor Sustainability and Integrated Energy Systems, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) software framework (Idaho National Laboratory 2024a) for the technical and economic analysis of nuclear-integrated energy systems (IES). Nuclear IES expand the use of nuclear from traditional baseload electricity generation to a flexible and adaptive source of combined heat and power. Nuclear heat can be used in the production of a variety of energy currencies such as hydrogen and ammonia as well as other heat applications including water desalination and district heating. FORCE is designed with the intent to provide interconnected analysis tools that enable the accurate technical and economic assessment of specific nuclear IES configurations for individual energy markets. FORCE consists of three main analysis pathways: HYBRID (Idaho National Laboratory 2024b), which contains high-resolution physical models for IES; Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024c), which analyzes IES long-term economic viability; and Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) (Idaho National Laboratory 2024d), designed for real-time control of IES via digital twins and optimal decision making, including autonomous and remote operation research. Development of the FORCE ecosystem is guided by three pillars: capability, which assures that the computational requirements of IES analysis are met by the software tools; reliability, which provides for consistent code performance and expected behaviors; and accessibility, which lowers the barrier to entry for using the software and accelerates analysis by users beyond the FORCE primary developers. Reliability of the FORCE ecosystem is established according to the American Nuclear Society?s Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) program [American Society of Mechanical Engineers 1982], with specific levels of software quality assurance (SQA) within NQA-1 applied to each software tool in FORCE. As the tools within FORCE have matured, some integration algorithms to accurately connect the software tools for holistic analysis have been developed and deployed within the FORCE software repository. In accordance with NQA-1 standards, regression tests are required to guarantee the software performs consistently even when new capabilities are added to the software. In this report, we document the deployment of both unit tests, which test the consistent behavior of small pieces of the FORCE code base, as well as integration tests, which test the consistent performance of full use cases for the FORCE integration algorithms. We further document the encapsulation of these tests within a test harness, which collectively checks for each successful test completion on demand. Finally, we document the automation of the test harness using GitHub Actions [GitHub 2024], which require all tests succeed before any new capability or other changes can be added to the FORCE integration software

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solar energy research and utilization

The role is described that solar energy will play in the heating and cooling of buildings, the production of renewable gaseous, liquid and solid fuels, and the production of electric power over the next 45 years. Potential impacts on the various energy markets and estimated costs of such systems are discussed along with illustrations of some of the processes to accomplish the goals. The conclusions of the NSF/NASA Solar Energy Panel (1972) are given along with the estimated costs to accomplish the 15 year recommended program and also the recent and near future budget appropriations and recommendations are included.

Cherry, W. R.↗

A deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool for hybridizing generation plants

Hybrid generation and energy storage systems offer the ability to increase flexibility of the combined asset. This flexibility can be used to increase provision of services already provided by the generation asset, such as timing sale of electricity to the energy market during high price periods, and also enable provision of additional services, such as ancillary services or contribute to resource adequacy. From a generation asset owner perspective, the decision to hybridize includes selecting an energy storage system that, among other factors, maximizes financial performance of the energy storage investment. Yet, existing tools to optimize energy storage sizing are either too rudimentary (i.e., based on “rules of thumb”) or too complex to implement (i.e., require specialized engineering and software knowledge and a high-performance computer to run). This work presents a novel deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool that is designed to help generation asset owners easily assess preliminary sizing considerations for potential battery investments to hybridize their generation facility. The tool uses deep learning to predict revenue over a broad search space of potential battery sizes, estimates capital and operating costs (including accounting for battery degradation), and computes financial performance of each potential battery system investment, recommending a system with maximum financial performance. The tool is tested and validated for hydropower assets. Finally, this tool will help a greater cross-section of industry consider investments in battery systems, increasing their revenue and helping them compete in rapidly evolving electrify markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Electric transmission value and its drivers in United States power markets

Electric transmission infrastructure plays a vital role during extreme weather and supply disruptions and can enable low-cost electricity systems. This paper contributes to a more complete understanding of the value and cost-effectiveness of transmission, as well as barriers to its development. By studying wholesale energy market prices in the United States between 2012 and 2022, we find that additional transfer capacity between regions would have been especially valuable, with a median value of $116 million per GW per year. This capacity would often have provided balanced benefits to each region. The market value of transmission was highly influenced by a small fraction of time: 5% of hours typically captured at least 45% of the total value. These peak periods were primarily driven by unforeseen changes in conditions within one day of operations. Annualized transmission infrastructure cost estimates were lower than the average market value for most locations, including all links crossing regional seams, where the value-to-cost ratio was often greater than 4. This suggests that there are barriers to developing valuable grid infrastructure. These results complement forward-looking modeling studies and support efforts to improve modeling practices.

Energy economics↗

Driving Economics and Reducing Risks: The Business Case for Security-by-Design in Nuclear Power

This report provides an analysis of the financial, operational, and strategic advantages of incorporating Security-by-Design (SeBD) early in the lifecycle of nuclear power plant projects. By framing security as a foundational design element rather than a late-stage add-on, owners, vendors, and operators can reduce budget overruns, strengthen regulatory compliance, and increase revenue opportunities. The report details key lifecycle phases, highlighting the strategic imperative for organizations (including project developers, investors, vendors, and regulators) to adopt SeBD. Drawing on industry estimates, real-world case studies, and comparative cost analyses, the findings underscore that even a modest upfront investment in SeBD can yield substantial long-term returns by preventing costly retrofit activities, minimizing regulatory delays, and positioning nuclear vendors for the ability to adapt in the evolving security market. By avoiding excessive retrofit expenses and positioning security as a built-in feature rather than an afterthought, nuclear projects can protect their financial performance, enhance public trust, and secure a competitive edge in an increasingly complex global energy market. The authors advocate for SeBD’s strategic implementation, supported by established quality management methodologies, thereby promoting continuous improvement and defect avoidance. Ultimately, early SeBD integration represents a strategic investment, yielding significant returns by preventing costly retrofits and positioning nuclear projects for enhanced competitiveness and public trust.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A critical review and meta-analysis of energy demand, carbon footprint, and other environmental impacts from carbon fiber manufacturing

The demand for carbon fibers and carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) is rapidly growing due to their outstanding mechanical properties and potential to enhance sustainability, particularly for lightweighting applications. However, carbon fibers are typically produced from fossil-based feedstocks, involve energy-intensive processes, and have limited options for sustainable end-of-life management or circularity. Despite these challenges, the energy demand and lifecycle environmental implications of their production remain poorly understood. Here, we conduct a critical literature review and meta-analysis of carbon fiber manufacturing, revealing significant variations in reported energy demand, carbon footprint, and lifecycle inventory data. Our analysis makes two novel contributions. First, we identify key underlying factors driving these variations. Second, we highlight that carbon fiber, far from being a homogeneous product, has grades varying substantially in mechanical properties, end-use markets, energy intensity of manufacturing processes, and therefore environmental impacts—an aspect often underrepresented in life cycle assessments. We assert that current data are insufficient for reliably evaluating environmental impacts, posing a risk of misleading decision-making. Addressing this gap requires new lifecycle inventory datasets clearly incorporating carbon fiber heterogeneity and key influencing factors identified in this study. Additionally, we propose actionable recommendations, including a checklist, to advance sustainability in the carbon fiber sector.

CED↗

Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged with Solar Thermal Technology Using Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs and Carnot-Battery Technique Using Shallow Reservoirs: Preprint

Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) utilizes the underground reservoirs to storage and dispatch energy per given demand schedule over a time scale up to seasons of a year. The energy input can be of various sources/forms; in this paper, we investigate 1) the GeoTES technology with solar thermal hybridization and using depleted oil/gas reservoirs; 2) the GeoTES technology with heat pumps charged by excess renewable electricity and using low-temperature shallow reservoirs. For each GeoTES technology, we carry out the suitability analysis of candidate reservoirs, develop initial techno-economic models, and validate the model with selected case study. The paper provides an overview of our technical progress on the topics of concern and aims to promote a wider acceptance of the GeoTES technologies in the future energy market.

Carnot battery↗

Computational Algorithms for Unit Commitment with AC Power Flows (Final Report)

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a key component in power system operations. When AC power flow constraints are considered in the SCUC model (AC-SCUC), the problem becomes extremely difficult due to its discrete and non-convex nature, as described in “Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem Formulation (GOCC)”. There are four main challenges: (i) Discrete decisions regarding unit online/offline status and start-up/shut-down procedures for every single unit. The number of discrete decision variables increases considerably when a system integrates multiple generators; (ii) Configuration-based combined-cycle formulations, and multi-commodity models that include ramping products, spin/non-spin products, and regulation up/down products. The combined-cycle units introduce additional discrete decision variables and auxiliary service products further complicate the model by connecting multi-commodity products’ continuous and discrete variables; (iii) SCUC models with AC power flow constraints are far more complex due to massive bilinear terms in the large-scale nonlinear power balance equations. The nonlinear power balance equations are further complicated by the discrete step control variables of shunts; (iv) N − 1 contingency analysis. The size of the model increases linearly with the number of contingencies considered, greatly increasing the size of the optimization model. Accordingly, there is an emergent need to develop a robust algorithm capable of deriving a high-quality solution in a short time and passing through contingency tests simultaneously. In this project, we explore innovative techniques to address this challenging problem by integrating advanced polyhedral theory, approximation methods, relaxation strategies, decomposition techniques, and parallel computing. Each technique approaches the problem from a different perspective, leveraging its specific strengths to tackle distinct challenges. Each individual method has demonstrated its effectiveness in the PI’s previous research. Their integration is expected to significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the proposed complex problem. Successful completion of this project has the potential to transform the industry by enhancing optimization solvers capable of handling large-scale day-ahead energy market clearing models within strict time constraints, while incorporating AC power flow constraints. This advancement will lead to reduced overall generation costs and, consequently, increased social welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

Using Co-Simulation to Model Interconnect-Scale Power Systems from Loads to Generators

Co-simulation is a modeling technique that allows analysts to combine simulation tools and their corresponding models to exchange data during run-time, allowing the creation of larger and more complex models across heterogeneous domains. HELICS is a co-simulation platform developed over the past six years that has been shown to be effective for these multi-domain analysis. Recently, a HELICS-based analysis was completed where the ERCOT electrical interconnect in the United States was modeled in high detail from bulk power system generation to individual customer loads. This model was used to evaluate a flat-rate and transactive energy tariff with integrated wholesale and retail real-time and day-ahead energy markets. This modeling allows detailed analysis showing how the operations of the power system under these tariffs impact all actors in the power system, from individual customers to bulk power system operators.

co-simulation, HELICS, transactive energy system, ↗

Fossil Energy in the Hydrogen Economy – A Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus Adaptive Evaluation Platform

This project develops tools to evaluate fossil energy within the hydrogen economy. In particular, the project seeks to explore the Carbon-Water-Energy Nexus and develop adaptive evaluation tools. The primary goal of this project was to evaluate fossil-based hydrogen production methods with an emphasis on their sustainability, particularly with respect to carbon emissions and water use. The overall technical objectives that guided this evaluation consisted of 1) technology assessment, which sought to establish a comprehensive baseline of existing and emerging technologies for the generation, transportation, storage, and end use of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, 2) carbon footprint analysis through quantification and analysis of carbon emissions associated with these hydrogen technologies, and identification of novel strategies and technologies that can effectively mitigate the carbon footprint, 3) water intensity assessment by evaluating the water needs (water-energy nexus) associated with different fossil fuel-based hydrogen technologies and proposing strategies to reduce water use, thus ensuring sustainable resource management, and 4) review of regulatory, policy and economic trends were examined to provide an overview of the factors influencing the adoption and integration of fossil fuel-derived hydrogen technologies into current energy markets. Beyond the technical outcomes, this project contributed to 5) education and workforce development through targeted training and educational opportunities for engineering students, preparing the next generation of professionals with technical, economic, and regulatory expertise in the hydrogen economy. Ultimately, this effort was intended to train the future workforce to provide useful insights to policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the broader energy community to facilitate informed decisions and responsible development within the hydrogen economy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Case Study in NREL DERMS Asset Management Implementation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Smarter Grid Solutions (SGS) plan to present a case study on their implementation of SGS' Strata Grid Distributed Energy Resource Management System at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). The ESIF is one of the nation's premier energy systems integration laboratory facilities focused on development and deployment of clean energy technologies and resilient delivery systems. NREL looked for a DERMS to install at the ESIF that is capable of replicating real world scenarios to control and monitor distributed devices from small residential scale to the grid substation level. The DERMS system demonstrates the use cases of beneficial operation and coordination of modern grid devices, leverage DERs for improved grid planning and operation, demand-side management and customer engagement through bidirectional communication with utilities and energy market operations. The presentation will cover the delivery strategy of NREL and SGS, how the use cases help NREL's research, and NREL and SGS plan to expand the system and use cases.

ARIES↗

Digital Real-Time Simulation and Power Quality Analysis of a Hydrogen-Generating Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy System

This paper investigates the challenges and solutions associated with integrating a hydrogen-generating nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) under a transactive energy framework. The proposed system directs excess nuclear power to hydrogen production during periods of low grid demand while utilizing renewables to maintain grid stability. Using digital real-time simulation (DRTS) in the Typhoon HIL 404 model, the dynamic interactions between nuclear power plants, electrolyzers, and power grids are analyzed to mitigate issues such as harmonic distortion, power quality degradation, and low power factor caused by large non-linear loads. A three-phase power conversion system is modeled using the Typhoon HIL 404 model and includes a generator, a variable load, an electrolyzer, and power filters. Active harmonic filters (AHFs) and hybrid active power filters (HAPFs) are implemented to address harmonic mitigation and reactive power compensation. The results reveal that the HAPF topology effectively balances cost efficiency and performance and significantly reduces active filter current requirements compared to AHF-only systems. During maximum electrolyzer operation at 4 MW, the grid frequency dropped below 59.3 Hz without filtering; however, the implementation of power filters successfully restored the frequency to 59.9 Hz, demonstrating its effectiveness in maintaining grid stability. Future work will focus on integrating a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework with real-time simulation and optimizing real-time power dispatch, thus enabling a scalable, efficient NR-IES for sustainable energy markets.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

River systems under peaked stress

The change in the global energy production mix towards variable renewable energy sources requires efficient utilization of regulated rivers to optimise hydropower operations meet the needs of a changing energy market. However, the flexible operation of hydropower plants causes non-natural, sub-daily fluctuating flows in the receiving water bodies, often referred to as ‘hydropeaking’. Drastic changes in sub-daily flow regimes undermine attempts to improve river system health. Environmental decision makers, including permitting authorities and river basin managers facing the intense and increasing pressure on river environments, should consider ecosystem services and biodiversity issues more thoroughly. The need for research innovations in hydropeaking operation design to fulfil both the water and energy security responsibilities of hydropower is highlighted. Our paper outlines optimized hydropeaking design as a future research direction to help researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize actions that could enable better integration of river science and energy system planning. The goal of this is to find a balanced hydropower operation strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗