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Comparing Ecological Risk between D and D Facilities and Operating Facilities at the Hanford Site - 19531

Many countries are faced with a large remediation task resulting from World War II, the Cold War, and subsequent industrial development. In the U.S. the Department of Energy (DOE) faces the largest hazardous waste remediation tasks, with a commitment to protect human health and the environment during and following remediation. DoE's biggest challenge is remediation of the many remaining cleanup areas at the Hanford Site, Washington. Some Hanford sites have extensive ecological resources and ecosystems that require protection or restoration. We briefly 1) describe a rapid evaluation method for ecological resources on units slated for cleanup that allows comparison among the different areas at the Hanford Site, 2) examine some D4 (deactivation, decommissioning, decontamination and demolition) facilities and Operating facilities that require remediation, 3) describe potential ecological harm to resources on these sites, and 4) compare how risks from potential harm vary at the Hanford Site. The ecological evaluation includes three phases: 1) general steps (identify resource categories, identify cleanup areas), 2) ecological descriptions (describe resources on the site to be cleaned up), and 3) ecological ratings (rate the value of the resources on a scale that can be applied across remediation sites). After completion of these steps for the sites requiring cleanup, a comparison of potential risks can be made among types of facilities (e.g. D4 facilities, legacy waste sites, operating facilities). D4 facilities are those slated for deactivation, decommissioning, decontamination and demolition, while operating facilities at Hanford include waste treatment plants, sludge basins, waste trenches, Central Waste Complex, storage facilities, and disposal facilities, among others required to support the D4 and other remediation activities, before they too are remediated. Currently the potential harm to ecological (and eco-cultural) resources on the Hanford Site for remediation at D4 facilities is very low, but increases to very high (for reactors) during remediation when there is physical disruption, increased traffic and personnel, and possible increased contamination. Following remediation, the potential harm to ecological resources is low, and the value may increase due to restoration of native vegetation on sites that were largely industrial prior to remediation. In contrast, the potential harm to ecological resources at Operating Facilities was higher currently than for D4 facilities, but was low to medium following cleanup. The higher harm (risk) at D4 facilities partly derives from the location of the reactors near the Columbia River, a resource extremely important to Tribal Nations and to other peoples in the Northwestern United States, as well as for the iconic and threatened salmon populations. Methods described in this paper provide Congress, DOE managers, regulators, Tribes, and the general public with assurance that ecological and eco-cultural resources and the environment are being protected during and following remediation. The analysis of specific sites provides managers, regulators and the public with information to make cost-effective decisions about remediation that continues to enhance ecological value while protecting human health. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An approach to evaluating and monitoring ecological resources for sustainability on DOE remediation sites: Hanford as a case study - 15524

Protecting ecological and environmental resources is a worthy aspect of the Department of Energy's site missions, for each of its sites, during and after remediation. Ecological resources are important to a range of stakeholders, including regulatory agencies, resource agencies, natural resource trustees, Tribal governments, and the public, and may be an essential component of Native American cultural resources. Because the nature and value of ecological resources can change over time as a result of remediation, succession, and global climate change, it is imperative for DOE to have instituted an acceptable method of evaluating resources before initiation of active remediation, over the ensuing century when institutional and engineering controls are considered to be in effect. Having such a methodology in place also would be key to resource sustainability. Department of Energy sites generally have environmental programs, so instituting specific unified practices for evaluating resources should not be difficult to implement. Instituting these practices would assure the public that ecological resources, as well as human and cultural resources, are being protected now, and can be protected into the future. Key ecological species and/or unique habitats have been preserved at Department of Energy sites since the mid-20. century because of federal government stewardship. Such preservation is particularly true for the sites with larger land areas, including the Hanford Reservation, the Idaho National Laboratory and the Savannah River Site. Individual sites typically have extensive studies of site biodiversity, but site resources are not routinely examined within a regional or national context (Eco-region). The evaluation of the on-site resources with those resources in the appropriate Eco-region provides a context for 'valuing' on- site resources. On-site resources should also be evaluated in terms of federal and state legislation where species may have legal protection and require legal consideration during remediation if present or adjacent to the remediation site. A method is needed in this study for evaluating ecological resources prior to remediation and during remediation, and a paradigm is proposed that will ensure sustainability. Finally, in a period of climate change and instability, developing methods of evaluating ecological resources is essential to successful protection, enhancement, and sustainability. The ecological methodology is part of a Hanford site-wide Risk Review Project, conducted by the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP). Our method adapts an existing methodology that includes using established levels for evaluating ecological resources by expanding the existing methodology to include field work for validating previous resource level designations, to assess the occurrence of invasive/exotic species, and to identify landscape scale features (patch size, connectivity). Evaluations should be conducted in the remediation unit itself, and in a buffer zone surrounding the remediation site. The methodology described has been applied to several remediation areas at Hanford, and issues that emerged during its application are discussed. The methodology can be applied at the major sites. Application of the Eco-region analysis will provide regulators and the public with an understanding of the value of the ecological resources in relation to the region, as well as an appreciation for the stewardship role the Department of Energy has played in protecting these resources since the beginning of the Cold War Era and can continue to do so sustainably. (authors)

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Challenges to Evaluating Ecological Risks in Performance Assessments - 18424

Performance assessments (PAs), whether probabilistic or deterministic, have largely focused on evaluating human health effects of radionuclides. In the past, it was asserted that protecting human health would automatically protect the environment. This blanket assertion has been questioned, so tools and methodologies to directly estimate non-human biota dose have been developed and made available since the early 2000's. For example, the Biota Dose Assessment Committee (BDAC) guidance led to the development of the RESRAD-BIOTA (RESRAD stands for Residual Radioactive materials) software to implement this guidance. The BDAC was a US Department of Energy (DOE) led working group with members from academia and consultancies in addition to DOE technical staff. Parallel efforts have been in place in Europe with the development of the ERICA tool (Environmental Risk from Ionising Contaminants: Assessment and Management). More recently, interpretation of the requirements of US Department of Energy (DOE) Order O458.1 have led some waste management facilities to include ecological risks in addition to human health effects in their PAs. We have recently developed methodologies to assess ecological risks within probabilistic PAs (PPAs) for two Federal facilities. One of the challenges in applying the non-human biota assessment models to PPAs is that ecological risk assessments following US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or DOE guidance start with protective screening assessments before moving into more site-specific ecological risk assessments. Conservative assumptions bias the screening assessments and greatly overestimate the risks posed by contaminants. However, although the screens are biased they can be useful in ruling out model spatial domain areas or types of biota from requiring further assessment. In some cases, the results of the screen could entirely rule out ecological risks from further assessment. For a more refined and unbiased estimate of dose to non-human biota, one would typically conduct site-specific studies to better define exposure through the food web or adverse effects based on eco-toxicity studies of environmental, and generally weathered, contaminant mixtures. However, for PPAs that consider future site conditions after the loss of institutional control, such site-specific studies are not possible. Rather, site-specific future ecological risk models use probabilistic inputs that result in a distribution of population doses or exposures and calculate the distribution of possible adverse effects to ecological populations. This approach considers both radionuclide and chemical inventory. For both Federal facilities, the model spatial domains include riparian and aquatic environments located downstream of the waste management site. These riparian and aquatic environments represent linear exposure elements for some wildlife populations and require special consideration of exposures to individuals and to populations along such spatial domains. At a minimum, wildlife foraging should be focused along the axis of such water bodies. Another challenge is how to incorporate ecologically relevant spatial scales into models that have contaminant transport as the primary focus. Riparian and aquatic environments also have threatened and endangered (T and E) species, which necessitate greater levels of protection given their rarity. A final challenge for conducting ecological risk assessments is how to evaluate T and E species in the future. This might be addressed by evaluating potential for impacts on individuals of feeding guilds with species that are currently threatened or endangered. We also have to consider how ecological populations might change as a result of climate change. It is a more difficult problem to predict what species might become rare in the future, and how to best assess future populations of threatened or endangered species. (authors)

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Inferring the Contribution of Microbial Taxa and Organic Matter Molecular Formulas to Ecological Assembly

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the assembly of communities has long been the goal of many ecological studies. While several studies have evaluated community wide ecological assembly, fewer have focused on investigating the impacts of individual members within a community or assemblage on ecological assembly. Here, we adapted a previous null model β-nearest taxon index (βNTI) to measure the contribution of individual features within an ecological community to overall assembly. This new metric, called feature-level βNTI (βNTI feat ), enables researchers to determine whether ecological features (e.g., individual microbial taxa) contribute to divergence, convergence, or have insignificant impacts across spatiotemporally resolved metacommunities or meta-assemblages. Using βNTI feat , we revealed that unclassified microbial lineages often contributed to community divergence while diverse groups (e.g., Crenarchaeota, Alphaproteobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria) contributed to convergence. We also demonstrate that βNTI feat can be extended to other ecological assemblages such as organic molecules comprising organic matter (OM) pools. OM had more inconsistent trends compared to the microbial community though CHO-containing molecular formulas often contributed to convergence, while nitrogen and phosphorus-containing formulas contributed to both convergence and divergence. A network analysis was used to relate βNTI feat values from the putatively active microbial community and the OM assemblage and examine potentially common contributions to ecological assembly across different communities/assemblages. This analysis revealed that P-containing formulas often contributed to convergence/divergence separately from other ecological features and N-containing formulas often contributed to assembly in coordination with microorganisms. Additionally, members of Family Geobacteraceae were often observed to contribute to convergence/divergence in conjunction with both N- and P-containing formulas, suggesting a coordinated ecological role for family members and the nitrogen/phosphorus cycle. Overall, we show that βNTI feat offers opportunities to investigate the community or assemblage members, which shape the phylogenetic or functional landscape, and demonstrate the potential to evaluate potential points of coordination across various community types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of optimal codon usage in metabolic genes inform budding yeast ecology

Reverse ecology is the inference of ecological information from patterns of genomic variation. One rich, heretofore underutilized, source of ecologically relevant genomic information is codon optimality or adaptation. Bias toward codons that match the tRNA pool is robustly associated with high gene expression in diverse organisms, suggesting that codon optimization could be used in a reverse ecology framework to identify highly expressed, ecologically relevant genes. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between optimal codon usage in the classic galactose metabolism ( GAL ) pathway and known ecological niches for 329 species of budding yeasts, a diverse subphylum of fungi. We find that optimal codon usage in the GAL pathway is positively correlated with quantitative growth on galactose, suggesting that GAL codon optimization reflects increased capacity to grow on galactose. Optimal codon usage in the GAL pathway is also positively correlated with human-associated ecological niches in yeasts of the CUG-Ser1 clade and with dairy-associated ecological niches in the family Saccharomycetaceae. For example, optimal codon usage of GAL genes is greater than 85% of all genes in the genome of the major human pathogen Candida albicans (CUG-Ser1 clade) and greater than 75% of genes in the genome of the dairy yeast Kluyveromyces lactis (family Saccharomycetaceae). We further find a correlation between optimization in the GAL actose pathway genes and several genes associated with nutrient sensing and metabolism. This work suggests that codon optimization harbors information about the metabolic ecology of microbial eukaryotes. This information may be particularly useful for studying fungal dark matter—species that have yet to be cultured in the lab or have only been identified by genomic material.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire–dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above–ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below–ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological strategies of microbes: Thinking outside the triangle

Abstract I asked whether Grime's triangle of competitive, stress tolerance and ruderal ecological strategies—which was originally developed for plants—applies to microbes. I conducted a synthesis of empirical studies that tested relationships among microbial traits presumed to define the competitive, stress tolerance and ruderal, and other ecological strategies. There was broad support for Grime's triangle. However, the ecological strategies were inconsistently linked to shifts in microbial communities under environmental changes like nitrogen and phosphorus addition, warming, drought, etc. We may be missing important ecological strategies that more closely influence microbial community composition under shifting environmental conditions. We may need to start by documenting changes in microbial communities in response to environmental conditions at fine spatiotemporal scales relevant for microbes. We can then develop empirically based ecological strategies, rather than modifying those based on plant ecology. Synthesis . Microbes appear to sort into similar ecological strategies as plants. However, these microbial ecological strategies do not consistently predict how community composition will shift under environmental change. By starting ‘from the ground up’, we may be able to delineate ecological strategies more relevant for microbes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An ecology-oriented exploitation mode of groundwater resources in the northern foot of Tianshan Mountain, China

In recent years, ecological degradation caused by irrational groundwater exploitation has been of growing concern in arid and semiarid regions. To address the groundwater-ecological issues, this paper proposes a groundwater-resource exploitation mode to evaluate the tradeoff between groundwater development and ecological environment in the northern Tianshan Mountains, northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Field surveys and remote sensing studies were conducted to analyze the relation between the distribution of hydrological conditions and the occurrence of ecological types. The results show that there is a good correlation between groundwater depth and the supergene ecological type. Numerical simulations and ecological assessment models were applied to develop an ecology-oriented exploitation mode of groundwater resources. The mode allows the groundwater levels in different zones to be regulated by optimizing groundwater exploitation modes. The prediction results show that the supergene ecological quality will be better in 2020 and even more groundwater can be exploited in this mode. This study provides guidance for regional groundwater management, especially in regions with an obvious water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon acquisition ecological strategies to connect soil microbial biodiversity and carbon cycling

Soil carbon feedbacks to global change are uncertain, and the biological processes that govern soil organic matter decomposition are not resolved in current ecosystem models. Though it is recognized that microbial biodiversity influences decomposition rates, incorporating this relationship into ecosystem models is challenging because microbial communities are prohibitively diverse. It is likely necessary to distill microbial biodiversity by focusing on functional groups or ecological strategies. The ecological strategies that currently dominate the microbial ecology literature derive from macroecological theory, have clear weaknesses, and have had limited success when applied to predict soil carbon dynamics. Here, we present a new framework for soil microorganisms: Carbon Acquisition Ecological Strategies (CAES), and we outline a path toward incorporating microbial biodiversity into ecosystem models using this framework to enhance predictions of soil carbon feedbacks to global change. Because a microorganism's diet is central to its ecological niche and likely to covary with other ecologically significant traits, we posit that carbon acquisition may serve as a tractable foundation for developing ecological strategies. Further, we describe four candidate ecological strategies for soil microorganisms: 1° decomposers that assimilate complex plant polymers, 2° decomposers that assimilate microbial necromass, passive consumers that assimilate dissolved organic carbon, and predatory microbes that assimilate live microbial biomass. These strategies are directly linked to soil carbon pools currently represented in ecosystem models and may provide a foundation for greater integration of microbial community dynamics into ecosystem models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological Quality Evolution and Its Driving Factors in Yunnan Karst Rocky Desertification Areas

Rocky desertification is a key element affecting regional ecological quality. Rocky desertification in Southwest China directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins and also restricts regional economic and social development. In order to clarify the evolution laws and key influencing factors of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas, a quantitative analysis based on the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) model was conducted to explore the overall evolution characteristics and change laws of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas in the past 30 years. The correlation between RSEI, rock outcrop rate (Fr), and driving factors was determined by redundancy analysis. The results showed the following: (1) RSEI in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas generally showed a decreasing trend, with a fluctuation in the mid-term, followed by a tendency to recover. It fell into three stages: decline, trough, and recovery, with fitting coefficients of -0.121, -0.057, and 0.157, respectively. In contrast, Fr showed an opposite tendency, illustrating the inverse relationship between RSEI and Fr, and the rate of sequential succession was much faster than that of the reverse succession under human measures of intervention. (2) The mean value of RSEI of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas was generally lower than that of the total Yunnan Province land areas and Yunnan non-karst rocky desertification areas, but the mean value of Fr was generally more than that of both the above-mentioned areas. In addition, the RSEI and Fr of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas both showed lower stability values than those of both the above-mentioned areas. This generally suggested a low ecological quality and a high degree of desertification under a low stability in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas. (3) The correlation of RSEI and Fr with driving factors followed the order of topographic factors, soil factors > water factors > anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic factors were the driving force changing the state of rocky desertification, geological factors such as topography and soil to a larger extent determined the original macroscopic ecological relationship of rocky desertification, and water factors lay between the above two. The findings of this research will provide theoretical support and a basis for the improvement of ecological quality and comprehensive control of karst rocky desertification in Yunnan Province.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recombination Does Not Hinder Formation or Detection of Ecological Species of Synechococcus Inhabiting a Hot Spring Cyanobacterial Mat

Recent studies of bacterial speciation have claimed to support the biological species concept—that reduced recombination is required for bacterial populations to diverge into species. This conclusion has been reached from the discovery that ecologically distinct clades show lower rates of recombination than that which occurs among closest relatives. However, these previous studies did not attempt to determine whether the more-rapidly recombining close relatives within the clades studied may also have diversified ecologically, without benefit of sexual isolation. Here we have measured the impact of recombination on ecological diversification within and between two ecologically distinct clades (A and B’) of Synechococcus in a hot spring microbial mat in Yellowstone National Park, using a cultivation-free, multi-locus approach. Bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) libraries were constructed from mat samples collected at 60°C and 65°C. Analysis of multiple linked loci near Synechococcus 16S rRNA genes showed little evidence of recombination between the A and B’ lineages, but a record of recombination was apparent within each lineage. Recombination and mutation rates within each lineage were of similar magnitude, but recombination had a somewhat greater impact on sequence diversity than mutation, as also seen in many other bacteria and archaea. Despite recombination within the A and B’ lineages, there was evidence of ecological diversification within each lineage. The algorithm Ecotype Simulation identified sequence clusters consistent with ecologically distinct populations (ecotypes), and several hypothesized ecotypes were distinct in their habitat associations and in their adaptations to different microenvironments. We conclude that sexual isolation is more likely to follow ecological divergence than to precede it. Thus, an ecology-based model of speciation appears more appropriate than the biological species concept for bacterial and archaeal diversification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Say where you sample: Increasing site selection transparency in urban ecology

Urban ecological studies have the potential to extend our understanding of socio-ecological systems beyond that of an individual city or region. Cross-comparative empirical work and synthesis are imperative to develop a general urban ecological theory. This can be achieved only if studies are replicable and generalizable. Transparency in methods reporting facilitates generalizability and replicability by documenting the decisions scientists make during the various steps of research design; this is particularly true for sampling design and selection because of their impact on both internal and external validity and the potential to unintentionally introduce bias. Three interdependent aspects of sample design are study sample selection (e.g., specific organisms, soils, or water), sample specification (measurement of specific variable of interest), and site selection (locations sampled). Of these, documentation of site selection—the where component of sample design—is underrepresented in the urban ecology literature. Using a stratified random sample of 158 papers from 12 major urban ecology journals, we investigated how researchers selected study sites in urban ecosystems and evaluated whether their site selection methods were transparent. We extracted data from these papers using a 50-question, theory-based questionnaire and a multiple-reviewer approach. Our sample represented almost 45 years of urban ecology research across 40 different countries. We found that more than 80% of the papers read were not transparent in their site selection methodology. We do not believe site selection methods are replicable for 70% of the papers read. Key weaknesses include incomplete descriptions of populations and sampling frames, urban gradients, sample selection methods, and property access. Low transparency in reporting the where methodology limits urban ecologists’ ability to assess the internal and external validity of studies’ findings and to replicate published studies; it also limits the generalizability of existing studies. The challenges of low transparency are particularly relevant in urban ecology, a field where standard protocols for site selection and delineation are still being developed. These limitations interfere with the fields’ ability to build theory and inform policy. We conclude by offering a set of recommendations to increase transparency, replicability, and generalizability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized but not analysed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating and mapping ecological processes influencing microbial community assembly

Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i) selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii) dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii) ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Index system of urban resource and environment carrying capacity based on ecological civilization

Highlights: • Ecological civilization is an important pathway to sustainable development. • An index system established based on the concept of ecological civilization. • The index system focus on the environmental quality and resource use efficiency. • The index system dynamically reflects the key issues of ecological civilization. • The evaluation results provide guidance for ecological civilization of a city. - Abstract: ‘Ecological Civilization’ is a Chinese characteristic concept. It is an important pathway for China to achieve sustainable development and has become a key strategy to address China's serious resource and environmental issues. To solve the disparity between resources and the environment, an index system of urban resource and environment carrying capacity (URECC) based on ecological civilization should be established. This study explored the new connotations of URECC, and constructed an evaluation index system that contains 18 indicators selected from water carrying capacity, land carrying capacity, atmospheric environmental carrying capacity, energy carrying capacity, and environmental carrying capacity of solid waste. The index system fully embodies the supporting and restraining function to resources and environment for human development and reflects the dynamic change of URECC. We used URECC of Tianjin from 2007 to 2015 as a case study. The results reveal that the index system is not only able to reflect the current status of URECC, but also reflects the changes of increment to the original carrying capacity, so that economic and social development can be constrained within URECC. It provides a reference for future research on the carrying capacity index system of the city, and also has important practical significance to guide the sustainable development of the city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗