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NASA NTRS2015

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model predicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Multiline Transfer and the Dynamics of Stellar Winds

A Monte Carlo technique for treating multiline transfer in stellar winds is described. With a line list containing many thousands of transitions and with fairly realistic treatments of ionization, excitation and line formation, the resulting code allows the dynamic effects of overlapping lines the investigation of and provides the means to directly synthesize the complete spectrum of a star and its wind. It is found that the computed mass loss rate for data Puppis agrees with the observed rate. The synthesized spectrum of zeta Puppis also agrees with observational data. This confirms that line driving is the dominant acceleration mechanism in this star's wind.

Abbott, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Numerical Simulations of High Enthalpy Pulse Facilities

Axisymmetric flows within shock tubes and expansion tubes are simulated including the effects of finite rate chemistry and both laminar and turbulent boundary layers. The simulations demonstrate the usefulness of computational fluid dynamics for characterizing the flows in high enthalpy pulse facilities. The modeling and numerical requirements necessary to simulate these flows accurately are also discussed. Although there is a large body of analysis which explains and quantifies the boundary layer growth between the shock and the interface in a shock tube, there is a need for more detailed solutions. Phenomena such as thermochemical nonequilibrium. or turbulent transition behind the shock are excluded in the assumptions of Mirels' analysis. Additionally there is inadequate capability to predict the influence of the boundary layer on the expanded gas behind the interface. Quantifying the gas in this region is particularly important in expansion tubes because it is the location of the test gas. Unsteady simulations of the viscous flow in shock tubes are computationally expensive because they must follow features such as a shock wave over the length of the facility and simultaneously resolve the small length scales within the boundary layer. As a result, efficient numerical algorithms are required. The numerical approach of the present work is to solve the axisymmetric gas dynamic equations using an finite-volume formulation where the inviscid fluxes are computed with a upwind TVD scheme. Multiple species equations are included in the formulation so that finite-rate chemistry can be modeled. The simulations cluster grid points at the shock and interface and translate this clustered grid with these features to minimize numerical errors. The solutions are advanced at a CFL number of less than one based on the inviscid gas dynamics. To avoid limitations on the time step due to the viscous terms, these terms are treated implicitly. This requires a block tri-diagonal matrix inversion along each line of cells normal to the wall. The cost of this inversion is more than offset by the larger allowable time step. The source terms representing the finite-rate chemical kinetics are also treated implicitly. An algebraic turbulence model for compressible flow is used. The flow in a low pressure shock tube is computed and the results are compared with Mirels'analysis. The driven gas is nitrogen at 70 Pa, and the incident shock speed is approximately 2.9 km/sec so that there is little dissociation. The simulations include a laminar boundary layer and are run until the limiting flow regime is achieved. At this limit, the shock and interface travel at the same velocity because the amount of driven gas between these two features remains the same: the mass flow across the shock is equal to the mass of gas being entrained at the interface by the boundary layer. Simulations with several grids are presented to establish the grid independence of the solution, Good agreement is achieved between Mirels' correlations and the computations. This is expected since the flow conditions are chosen to be consistent with the assumptions used in Mirels' analysis. This comparison adds credibility to the numerical approach and highlights some of the differences between the theory and the detailed simulations. In addition, simulations of the HYPULSE expansion tube are presented for two operating conditions and the computations are compared to experimental data. The operating gas for both cases is nitrogen. One test condition is at a total enthalpy of 15.2 MJ/Kg and a relatively low pressure of 2 kPa. This case is characterized by a laminar boundary layer and significant chemical nonequilibrium. in the acceleration gas. The second test condition is at a total enthalpy of 10.2 MJ/Kg and a pressure of 38 kPa and is characterized by a turbulent boundary layer. The simulations compare well with experiment and reveal that the nonuniformity in pressure observed during the test time is related to variations in the boundary layer displacement thickness.

Wilson, Gregory J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Experimental study on two-dimensional free-flying robot satellite model

The experimental study on a control method for a free flying space robotic arm was treated by means of a two-dimensional laboratory model. The main target is to develop a new control method for trajectory tracking or target capturing, considering dynamical interaction between the manipulator arm and the base vehicle in space micro-gravity environment. In order to simulate the micro-gravity environment mechanically, a laboratory model of a robot satellite supported on air bearings was developed. The model comprises a base equipped with power and air supplies and a two-link manipulator arm. This model has relatively low gravitational and frictional disturbance in planar motion. An on-line resolved motion rate control scheme with vision feedback is developed for experimenting capture operations. The scheme utilizes the Generalized Jacobian Matrix. In experiment, the acceleration environment of the model is evaluated firstly, then target capture operations are examined. The manipulator can properly chase and capture both a standing target and a moving target in spite of complex satellite/manipulator dynamical interactions. The experimental results confirm the validity of the Generalized Jacobian Matrix concept and the proposed control method.

Umetani, Yoji↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cardiac interbeat interval dynamics from childhood to senescence : comparison of conventional and new measures based on fractals and chaos theory

BACKGROUND: New methods of R-R interval variability based on fractal scaling and nonlinear dynamics ("chaos theory") may give new insights into heart rate dynamics. The aims of this study were to (1) systematically characterize and quantify the effects of aging from early childhood to advanced age on 24-hour heart rate dynamics in healthy subjects; (2) compare age-related changes in conventional time- and frequency-domain measures with changes in newly derived measures based on fractal scaling and complexity (chaos) theory; and (3) further test the hypothesis that there is loss of complexity and altered fractal scaling of heart rate dynamics with advanced age. METHODS AND RESULTS: The relationship between age and cardiac interbeat (R-R) interval dynamics from childhood to senescence was studied in 114 healthy subjects (age range, 1 to 82 years) by measurement of the slope, beta, of the power-law regression line (log power-log frequency) of R-R interval variability (10(-4) to 10(-2) Hz), approximate entropy (ApEn), short-term (alpha(1)) and intermediate-term (alpha(2)) fractal scaling exponents obtained by detrended fluctuation analysis, and traditional time- and frequency-domain measures from 24-hour ECG recordings. Compared with young adults (<40 years old, n=29), children (<15 years old, n=27) showed similar complexity (ApEn) and fractal correlation properties (alpha(1), alpha(2), beta) of R-R interval dynamics despite lower spectral and time-domain measures. Progressive loss of complexity (decreased ApEn, r=-0.69, P<0.001) and alterations of long-term fractal-like heart rate behavior (increased alpha(2), r=0.63, decreased beta, r=-0.60, P<0.001 for both) were observed thereafter from middle age (40 to 60 years, n=29) to old age (>60 years, n=29). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac interbeat interval dynamics change markedly from childhood to old age in healthy subjects. Children show complexity and fractal correlation properties of R-R interval time series comparable to those of young adults, despite lower overall heart rate variability. Healthy aging is associated with R-R interval dynamics showing higher regularity and altered fractal scaling consistent with a loss of complex variability.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1985

Pitch change thresholds as influenced by angular rate and duration of the apparent horizon's displacement

The displacement threshold (DT) during voluntary visual tracking of a line and during fixation of a stable spot located at the initial stimulus position was determined to help in the modeling pilot manual dynamics during the nose-up 'flare' maneuver. Forty-six observers made paired comparison, forced choice judgments of the maximal downward displacements of a horizontal line moving at various speeds for the durations of 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 sec. The results indicated that the DT is significantly lower, the confidence is higher, and the number of errors and guesses is smaller when a fixation dot is present; moreover, increasing both the stimulus velocity and duration significantly improves the accuracy of displacement discrimination and increases mean confidence.

Haines, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Assessment of Helium Evolution from Helium-Saturated Propellant Depressurization in Space

Helium evolution from the transfer of helium-saturated propellant in space is quantified to assess its impacts from creating two-phase gas/liquid flow from the supply tank, gas injection into the receiving tank, and liquid discharge from the receiving tank. Propellant transfer takes place between two similar tanks whose maximum storage capacity is approximately 2.55 cubic meters each. The maximum on-orbit propellants transfer capability is 9000 lbm (fuel and oxidizer). The transfer line is approximately 1.27 cm in diameter and 6096 cm in length and comprised of the fluid interconnect system (FICS), the orbiter propellant transfer system (OPTS), and the International Space Station (ISS) propulsion module (ISSPM). The propellant transfer rate begins at approximately 11 liter per minute (lpm) and subsequently drops to approximately 0.5 lpm. The tank nominal operating pressure is approximately 1827 kPa (absolute). The line pressure drops for Monomethy1hydrazine (MMH) and Nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) at 11.3 lpm are approximately 202 kPa and 302 kPa, respectively. The pressure-drop results are based on a single-phase flow. The receiving tank is required to vent from approximately 1827 kPa to a lower pressure to affect propellant transfer. These pressure-drop scenarios cause the helium-saturated propellants to release excess helium. For tank ullage venting, the maximum volumes of helium evolved at tank pressure are approximately 0.5 ft3 for MMH and 2 ft3 for NTO. In microgravity environment, due to lack of body force, the helium evolution from a liquid body acts to propel it, which influences its fluid dynamics. For propellant transfer, the volume fractions of helium evolved at line pressure are 0.1% by volume for MMH and 0.6 % by volume for NTO at 11.3 lpm. The void fraction of helium evolved varies as an approximate second order power function of flow rate.

Nguyen, Bich N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the use of the cross section concept as applied to pulsed CO2 laser dynamics

The 'cross sections' which are commonly used in combination with the molecular vibrational level densities to describe induced transition rates are time dependent in a pulsed discharge. This greatly affects the relative rates of buildup of radiation at the various lines of a molecular gain medium in a nondispersive cavity, and the consequences for line selection by injection in a TEA-CO2 laser are discussed.

Flamant, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Magnetocentrifugally driven flows from young stars and disks. 1: A generalized model

We propose a generalized model for stellar spin-down, disk accretion, and truncation, and the origin of winds, jets, and bipolar outflows from young stellar objects. We consider the steady state dynamics of accretion of matter from a viscous and imperfectly conducting disk onto a young star with a strong magnetic field. For an aligned stellar magnetosphere, shielding currents in the surface layers of the disk prevent stellar field lines from penetrating the disk everywhere except for a range of radii about pi = R(sub x), where the Keplerian angular speed of rotation Omega(sub x) equals the angular speed of the star Omega(sub *). For the low disk accretion rates and high magnetic fields associated with typical T Tauri stars, R(sub x) exceeds the radius of the star R(sub *) by a factor of a few, and the inner disk is effectively truncated at a radius R(sub t) somewhat smaller than R(sub x). Where the closed field lines between R(sub t) and R(sub x) bow sufficiently inward, the accreting gas attaches itself to the field and is funneled dynamically down the effective potential (gravitational plus centrifugal) onto the star. Contrary to common belief, the accompanying magnetic torques associated with this accreting gas may transfer angular momentum mostly to the disk rather than to the star. Thus, the star can spin slowly as long as R(sub x) remains significantly greater than R(sub *). Exterior to R(sub x) field lines threading the disk bow outward, which makes the gas off the mid-plane rotate at super-Keplerian velocities. This combination drives a magnetocentrifugal wind with a mass-loss rate M(sub w) equal to a definite fraction f of the disk accretion rate M(sub D). For high disk accretion rates, R(sub x) is forced down to the stellar surface, the star is spun to breakup, and the wind is generated in a manner identical to that proposed by Shu, Lizano, Ruden, & Najita in a previous communication to this journal. In two companion papers (II and III), we develop a detailed but idealized theory of the magnetocentrifugal acceleration process.

Shu, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling of Inner Magnetosphere Coupling Processes

The Ring Current (RC) is the biggest energy player in the inner magnetosphere. It is the source of free energy for Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave excitation provided by a temperature anisotropy of RC ions, which develops naturally during inward E B convection from the plasmasheet. The cold plasmasphere, which is under the strong influence of the magnetospheric electric field, strongly mediates the RC-EMIC wave-particle-coupling process and ultimately becomes part of the particle and energy interplay. On the other hand, there is a strong influence of the RC on the inner magnetospheric electric and magnetic field configurations and these configurations, in turn, are important to RC dynamics. Therefore, one of the biggest needs for inner magnetospheric research is the continued progression toward a coupled, interconnected system with the inclusion of nonlinear feedback mechanisms between the plasma populations, the electric and magnetic fields, and plasma waves. As we clearly demonstrated in our studies, EMIC waves strongly interact with electrons and ions of energies ranging from approx.1 eV to approx.10 MeV, and that these waves strongly affect the dynamics of resonant RC ions, thermal electrons and ions, and the outer RB relativistic electrons. As we found, the rate of ion and electron scattering/heating in the Earth's magnetosphere is not only controlled by the wave intensity-spatial-temporal distribution but also strongly depends on the spectral distribution of the wave power. The latter is also a function of the plasmaspheric heavy ion content, and the plasma density and temperature distributions along the magnetic field lines. The above discussion places RC-EMIC wave coupling dynamics in context with inner magnetospheric coupling processes and, ultimately, relates RC studies with plasmaspheric and Superthermal Electrons formation processes as well as with outer RB physics.

Khazanov, George V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

There are many flare forecasting models. For an excellent review and comparison of some of them see Barnes et al. (2016). All these models are successful to some degree, but there is a need for better models. We claim the most successful models explicitly or implicitly base their forecasts on various estimates of components of the photospheric current density J, based on observations of the photospheric magnetic field B. However, none of the models we are aware of compute the complete J. We seek to develop a better model based on computing the complete photospheric J. Initial results from this model are presented in this talk. We present a data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that computes time series of the total J, and associated resistive heating rate in each pixel at the photosphere in the neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of B measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant.

Goodman, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Design and test of porous-tungsten mercury vaporizers

New design requirements for porous plug-type vaporizers used with Kaufman thrusters and thruster arrays are discussed. The results of testing samples of porous tungsten for mercury flow rate, liquid intrusion pressure level, and mechanical strength are presented. Nitrogen gas was used instead of mercury vapor for approximate calibration. Liquid intrusion pressure levels will require that flight thruster systems with long feedlines have restrictions in the dynamic line during launch.

Kerslake, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection↗
NASA NTRS1996

Interferometric Radar Observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile

Interferometric radar observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile, were collected in October 1994 by NASA's Spaceborne Imaging Radar C (SIR-C) at both L- (24cm) and C-band frequency (5.6cm), with vertical transmit and receive polarization. The C-band data did not yield good geophysical products, because the temporal coherence of the signal was significantly reduced after 24h. The L-band data were, however, successfully employed to map the surface topography of the icefield with a 10m uncertainty in height, and measure ice velocity with a precision of 4 mm/d or 1.4 m/a. The corresponding error in strain rates is 0.05/a at a 30 m horizontal spacing. The one-dimensional interferometric velocities were subsequently converted to horizontal displacements by assuming a flow direction and complemented by feature-tracking results near the calving front. The results provide a comprehensive view of the ice-flow dynamics of Glaciar San Rafael. The glacier has a core of rapid flow, 4.5 km in width and 3.5 degrees in average slope,surrounded by slower moving ice, not by rock. Ice velocity is 2.6 m/d or 0.95 km/a near the equilibrium line altitude (1200m), increasing rapidly before the glacier enters the narrower terminal valley, to reach 17.5 m/d or 6.4 km/a at the calving front. Strain rates are dominated by lateral shearing at the glacier margins (0.4-0.7/a), except for the terminal-valley section, where longitudinal strain rates average close to 1/a. This spectacular longitudinal increase in ice velocity in the last few kilometers may be a fundamental feature of tidewater glaciers.

Rignot, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1986

Viscoelastic deformation near active plate boundaries

Model deformations near the active plate boundaries of Western North America using space-based geodetic measurements as constraints are discussed. The first six months of this project were spent gaining familarity with space-based measurements, accessing the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Computer, and building time independent deformation models. The initial goal was to see how well the simplest elastic models can reproduce very long base interferometry (VLBI) baseline data. From the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Service, a total of 18 VLBI baselines are available which have been surveyed on four or more occasions. These data were fed into weighted and unweighted inversions to obtain baseline closure rates. Four of the better quality lines are illustrated. The deformation model assumes that the observed baseline rates result from a combination of rigid plate tectonic motions plus a component resulting from elastic strain build up due to a failure of the plate boundary to slip at the full plate tectonic rate. The elastic deformation resulting from the locked plate boundary is meant to portray interseismic strain accumulation. During and shortly after a large interplate earthquake, these strains are largely released, and points near the fault which were previously retarded suddenly catch up to the positions predicted by rigid plate models. Researchers judge the quality of fit by the sum squares of weighted residuals, termed total variance. The observed baseline closures have a total variance of 99 (cm/y)squared. When the RM2 velocities are assumed to model the data, the total variance increases to 154 (cm/y)squared.

Ward, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the role of the lower hybrid drift instability in substorm dynamics

Recent studies of the lower hybrid drift instability have shed new light on the role of this mode in field-reversed plasmas. For substorm magnetotail conditions it is found that the lower hybrid drift instability can penetrate to the neutral line and can dissipate magnetic energy at a rate of approximately 4 x 10 to the 17th erg/s. Thus this instability is capable of playing a major role in the onset of substorms and providing resistivity for reconnection processes in the context of the neutral line substorm model.

Huba, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Enhanced Elliptic Grid Generation

An enhanced method of elliptic grid generation has been invented. Whereas prior methods require user input of certain grid parameters, this method provides for these parameters to be determined automatically. "Elliptic grid generation" signifies generation of generalized curvilinear coordinate grids through solution of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs). Usually, such grids are fitted to bounding bodies and used in numerical solution of other PDEs like those of fluid flow, heat flow, and electromagnetics. Such a grid is smooth and has continuous first and second derivatives (and possibly also continuous higher-order derivatives), grid lines are appropriately stretched or clustered, and grid lines are orthogonal or nearly so over most of the grid domain. The source terms in the grid-generating PDEs (hereafter called "defining" PDEs) make it possible for the grid to satisfy requirements for clustering and orthogonality properties in the vicinity of specific surfaces in three dimensions or in the vicinity of specific lines in two dimensions. The grid parameters in question are decay parameters that appear in the source terms of the inhomogeneous defining PDEs. The decay parameters are characteristic lengths in exponential- decay factors that express how the influences of the boundaries decrease with distance from the boundaries. These terms govern the rates at which distance between adjacent grid lines change with distance from nearby boundaries. Heretofore, users have arbitrarily specified decay parameters. However, the characteristic lengths are coupled with the strengths of the source terms, such that arbitrary specification could lead to conflicts among parameter values. Moreover, the manual insertion of decay parameters is cumbersome for static grids and infeasible for dynamically changing grids. In the present method, manual insertion and user specification of decay parameters are neither required nor allowed. Instead, the decay parameters are determined automatically as part of the solution of the defining PDEs. Depending on the shape of the boundary segments and the physical nature of the problem to be solved on the grid, the solution of the defining PDEs may provide for rates of decay to vary along and among the boundary segments and may lend itself to interpretation in terms of one or more physical quantities associated with the problem.

Kaul, Upender K.↗