Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Double Heterogeneity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming

Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic behavior of molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers in heterogeneous vinyl acetate synthesis

Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is a crucial intermediate in the production of various polymers. While molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers, such as Pd 3 (OAc) 6 and K 2 Pd 2 (OAc) 6 , are known to form on potassium acetate (KOAc)-promoted PdAu catalysts during heterogeneous VAM synthesis, their mechanistic role remains unclear. Here, we study the dynamics of different Pd-acetate species by utilizing in situ and operando crystallographic and spectroscopic characterizations combined with computational modeling on monometallic Pd model catalysts. The promoter-free catalyst expectedly shows low catalytic activity and VAM selectivity, corresponding to the complete reduction of Pdn(OAc) 2n species to form Pd 0 and PdC x nanoparticles. Conversely, noticeable quantities of K n Pd 2 (OAc) n+4 species remain on the KOAc-promoted catalyst, leading to smaller nanoparticle formation with 10 times the activity and double the selectivity for VAM. This study reveals that molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers are significant indicators of catalytic performance and highlights their structurally dynamic nature in heterogeneous vinyl acetate chemistry.

Jacobs, Hunter P. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United↗
NASA NTRS2012

High Precision, Absolute Total Column Ozone Measurements from the Pandora Spectrometer System: Comparisons with Data from a Brewer Double Monochromator and Aura OMI

We present new, high precision, high temporal resolution measurements of total column ozone (TCO) amounts derived from ground-based direct-sun irradiance measurements using our recently deployed Pandora single-grating spectrometers. Pandora's small size and portability allow deployment at multiple sites within an urban air-shed and development of a ground-based monitoring network for studying small-scale atmospheric dynamics, spatial heterogeneities in trace gas distribution, local pollution conditions, photochemical processes and interdependencies of ozone and its major precursors. Results are shown for four mid- to high-latitude sites where different Pandora instruments were used. Comparisons with a well calibrated double-grating Brewer spectrometer over a period of more than a year in Greenbelt MD showed excellent agreement and a small bias of approximately 2 DU (or, 0.6%). This was constant with slant column ozone amount over the full range of observed solar zenith angles (15-80), indicating adequate Pandora stray light correction. A small (1-2%) seasonal difference was found, consistent with sensitivity studies showing that the Pandora spectral fitting TCO retrieval has a temperature dependence of 1% per 3K, with an underestimation in temperature (e.g., during summer) resulting in an underestimation of TCO. Pandora agreed well with Aura-OMI (Ozone Measuring Instrument) satellite data, with average residuals of <1% at the different sites when the OMI view was within 50 km from the Pandora location and OMI-measured cloud fraction was <0.2. The frequent and continuous measurements by Pandora revealed significant short-term (hourly) temporal changes in TCO, not possible to capture by sun-synchronous satellites, such as OMI, alone.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2022

Media for culturing epithelial cells

A method of growing primary human epithelial cells, in particular human epithelial cells using a basal formula containing individual (a) amino acids, (b) vitamins, (c) trace elements, and (d) other organics such as linoleic acid. The basal medium may be a mixture of amino acids, vitamins, and salts that constitute the basic media that is used to culture epithelial cells over a number of population doublings, e.g., over at least one week, while maintaining a normal phenotype and exerting low stress on the cultured cells, and maintaining lineage heterogeneity.

LaBarge, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solving complex nanostructures with ptychographic atomic electron tomography

Abstract Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is essential for determining atomic scale structures in structural biology and materials science. In structural biology, three-dimensional structures of proteins are routinely determined from thousands of identical particles using phase-contrast TEM. In materials science, three-dimensional atomic structures of complex nanomaterials have been determined using atomic electron tomography (AET). However, neither of these methods can determine the three-dimensional atomic structure of heterogeneous nanomaterials containing light elements. Here, we perform ptychographic electron tomography from 34.5 million diffraction patterns to reconstruct an atomic resolution tilt series of a double wall-carbon nanotube (DW-CNT) encapsulating a complex ZrTe sandwich structure. Class averaging the resulting tilt series images and subpixel localization of the atomic peaks reveals a Zr 11 Te 50 structure containing a previously unobserved ZrTe 2 phase in the core. The experimental realization of atomic resolution ptychographic electron tomography will allow for the structural determination of a wide range of beam-sensitive nanomaterials containing light elements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Electrodynamics Coupled-Cluster at Scale: High-Performance Implementation for Complex Systems

Coupled-cluster theory (CC) is a highly accurate and versatile method for simulating complex interactions within quantum systems. The extension of CC theory to model mixed electron-photon processes with quantum electrodynamics (QED) has improved our capability to predict cavity-modified chemistry, a field where photons are used as cost-effective and eco-friendly alternatives to catalyze/inhibit chemical reactions. However, calculations with CC methods, even without incorporating QED effects, are often prohibitively expensive. Simulations of larger systems require scalable infrastructures that exist for traditional CC methods but not for QED-CC methods. As such, we present a GPU-enabled, high-performance, open-source implementation of the quantum electrodynamics coupled-cluster method with single and double excitations (QED-CCSD) within the ExaChem quantum chemistry software package. ExaChem relies on the Tensor Algebra for Many-body Methods (TAMM) infrastructure: a parallel heterogeneous tensor library designed to achieve scalable performance on modern heterogeneous supercomputing platforms. Furthermore, we discuss theoretical foundations, algorithmic details, and numerical benchmarks to showcase the larger systems that ExaChem can simulate and how the integration of photonic degrees-of-freedom alters their ground-state properties.

Basis sets↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ramsey envelope modulation in NV diamond magnetometry

Nitrogen-vacancy (NV) spin ensembles in diamond provide an advanced magnetic sensing platform, with applications in both the physical and life sciences. The development of isotopically engineered 15 NV diamond offers advantages over naturally occurring 14 NV for magnetometry, due to its simpler hyperfine structure. However, for sensing modalities requiring a bias magnetic field not aligned with the sensing NV axis, the absence of a quadrupole moment in the 15 N nuclear spin leads to pronounced envelope modulation effects in time-dependent measurements of 15 NV spin evolution. While such behavior in spin echo experiments are well studied, analogous effects in Ramsey measurements and the implications for magnetometry remain underexplored. Here, we derive the modulated 15 NV Ramsey response to a misaligned bias field, using a simple vector description of the effective magnetic field on the nuclear spin. The predicted modulation properties are then compared to experimental results, revealing significant magnetic sensitivity loss if unaddressed. We demonstrate that double-quantum coherences of the NV S=1 electronic spin states dramatically suppress these envelope modulations, while additionally proving resilient to other parasitic effects such as strain heterogeneity and temperature shifts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ionic liquids for carbon capture

This article covers cutting-edge research in ionic liquid-based materials and their impact on carbon capture. Ionic liquids boast high thermal stability, low vapor pressure, and great tunability. They can be deployed as either sorbents or supported liquid membranes for carbon capture and other gas separations. Absorption of CO 2 in ionic liquids can be achieved via physisorption or chemisorption, depending on the strength of the interaction. For physisorption, both CO 2 -anion and cation–anion interactions are important factors in dictating CO 2 solubility. For chemisorption, the reactivity with CO 2 can be tuned by the basicity of the anion while the stability of the ionic liquid can be enhanced by controlling the cation. Marrying ionicity of ionic liquids with porosity leads to novel porous ionic liquids that feature unique properties for facilitating gas transport, while interfacing ionic liquids with microporous membranes allow the ions to gate the pores for selective gas transport. Further, composite materials of ionic liquids with crystalline materials such as metal–organic frameworks offer scalable heterogeneous interfaces to promote selectivity. Future opportunities include controlling the interaction with CO 2 and its transport at the charged or electrified interface with the ionic-liquid electric double layer, as well as combining CO 2 capture and conversion with ionic liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analysis of the solidified structure of rheocast and VADER processed nickel-base superalloy

Conventional 'ingot' processing of highly alloyed compositions results in a cast product which suffers from extensive macrosegregation, hot tears, and heterogeneities. By controlling the solidification journey, one can produce a fine grained cast product. This is achieved by manipulating the melt in the mushy zone. Rheocasting and vacuum arc double electrode remelting (VADER) are two such technologies where the melt is processed in the mushy zone. IN-100, a nickel based superalloy, was rheocast as well as VADER processed. The resultant cast structures are analyzed, compared and discussed both onmicro- and macrostructural levels. The effect of the rheocast processing variables (stirring seed, time and temperature) on the cast microstructure are also discussed.

Apelian, D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Quantum Many-Body GW Calculations on Exascale Supercomputing Platforms

Advanced ab initio materials simulations face growing challenges as increasing systems and phenomena complexity requires higher accuracy, driving up computational demands. Quantum many-body GW methods are state-of-the-art for treating electronic excited states and couplings but often hindered due to the costly numerical complexity. Here, we present innovative implementations of advanced GW methods within the BerkeleyGW package, enabling large-scale simulations on Frontier and Aurora exascale platforms. Our approach demonstrates exceptional versatility for complex heterogeneous systems with up to 17,574 atoms, along with achieving true performance portability across GPU architectures. We demonstrate excellent strong and weak scaling to thousands of nodes, reaching double-precision core-kernel performance of 1.069 ExaFLOP/s on Frontier (9,408 nodes) and 707.52 PetaFLOP/s on Aurora (9,600 nodes), corresponding to 59.45% and 48.79% of peak, respectively. Our work demonstrates a breakthrough in utilizing exascale computing for quantum materials simulations, delivering unprecedented predictive capabilities for rational designs of future quantum technologies.

Zhang, Benran [University of Southern California, ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic and single cell characterization of a CRISPR-interference toolset in Pseudomonas putida KT2440 for β-ketoadipate production from p -coumarate

We report Pseudomonas putida KT2440 is a well-studied bacterium for the conversion of lignin-derived aromatic compounds to bioproducts. The development of advanced genetic tools in P. putida has reduced the turnaround time for hypothesis testing and enabled the construction of strains capable of producing various products of interest. Here, we evaluate an inducible CRISPR-interference (CRISPRi) toolset on fluorescent, essential, and metabolic targets. Nuclease-deficient Cas9 (dCas9) expressed with the arabinose (8K)-inducible promoter was shown to be tightly regulated across various media conditions and when targeting essential genes. In addition to bulk growth data, single cell time lapse microscopy was conducted, which revealed intrinsic heterogeneity in knockdown rate within an isoclonal population. The dynamics of knockdown were studied across genomic targets in exponentially-growing cells, revealing a universal 1.75 ± 0.38 hour quiescent phase after induction where 1.5 ± 0.35 doublings occur before a phenotypic response is observed. To demonstrate application of this CRISPRi toolset, β-ketoadipate, a monomer for performance-advantaged nylon, was produced at a 4.39 ± 0.5 g/L and yield of 0.76 ± 0.10 mol/mol from p-coumarate, a hydroxycinnamic acid that can be derived from grasses. These cultivation metrics were achieved by using the higher strength IPTG (1K)-inducible promoter to knockdown the pcaIJ operon in the βKA pathway during early exponential phase. This allowed the majority of the carbon to be shunted into the desired product while eliminating the need for a supplemental carbon and energy source to support growth and maintenance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Erosive burning of solid propellants

Presented here is a review of the experimental and modeling work concerning erosive burning of solid propellants (augmentation of burning rate by flow of product gases across a burning surface). A brief introduction describes the motor design problems caused by this phenomenon, particularly for low port/throat area ratio motors and nozzleless motors. Various experimental techniques for measuring crossflow sensitivity of solid propellant burning rates are described, with the conclusion that accurate simulation of the flow, including upstream flow development, in actual motors is important since the degree of erosive burning depends not only on local mean crossflow velocity and propellant nature, but also upon this upstream development. In the modeling area, a brief review of simplified models and correlating equations is presented, followed by a description of more complex numerical analysis models. Both composite and double-base propellant models are reviewed. A second generation composite model is shown to give good agreement with data obtained in a series of tests in which composite propellant composition and heterogeneity (particle size distribution) were systematically varied. Finally, the use of numerical models for the development of erosive burning correlations is described, and a brief discussion of scaling is presented.

King, Merrill K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Organic Matrix Derived from Host–Microbe Interplay Contributes to Pathological Renal Biomineralization

Matrix stones are a rare form of kidney stones. They feature a high percentage of hydrogel-like organic matter, and their formation is closely associated with urinary tract infections. Herein, comprehensive materials and biochemical approaches were taken to map the organic-inorganic interface and gather insights into the host-microbe interplay in pathological renal biomineralization. Surgically extracted soft and slimy matrix stones were examined using micro-X-ray computed tomography and various microspectroscopy techniques. Higher-mineral-density laminae were positive for calcium-bound Alizarin red. Lower-mineral-density laminae revealed periodic acid-Schiff-positive organic filamentous networks of varied thickness. These organic filamentous networks, which featured a high polysaccharide content, were enriched with zinc, carbon, and sulfur elements. Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) along with immune response-related proteins, including calprotectin, myeloperoxidase, CD63, and CD86, also were identified in the filamentous networks. Expressions of NETs and upregulation of polysaccharide-rich mucin secretion are proposed as a part of the host immune defense to "trap" pathogens. These host-microbe derived organic matrices can facilitate heterogeneous nucleation and precipitation of inorganic particulates, resulting in macroscale aggregates known as "matrix stones". These insights into the plausible aggregation of constituents through host-microbe interplay underscore the unique "double-edged sword" effect of the host immune response to pathogens and the resulting renal biominerals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing DNA structural heterogeneity by identifying conformational subensembles of a bicovalently bound cyanine dye

DNA is a re-configurable, biological information-storage unit, and much remains to be learned about its heterogeneous structural dynamics. For example, while it is known that molecular dyes templated onto DNA exhibit increased photostability, the mechanism by which the structural dynamics of DNA affect the dye photophysics remains unknown. Here, we use femtosecond, two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy measurements of a cyanine dye, Cy5, to probe local conformations in samples of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA–Cy5), double-stranded DNA (dsDNA–Cy5), and Holliday junction DNA (HJ–DNA–Cy5). A line shape analysis of the 2D spectra reveals a strong excitation–emission correlation present in only the dsDNA–Cy5 complex, which is a signature of inhomogeneous broadening. Molecular dynamics simulations support the conclusion that this inhomogeneous broadening arises from a nearly degenerate conformer found only in the dsDNA–Cy5 complex. These insights will support future studies on DNA’s structural heterogeneity.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Homotypic aggregates contribute to heterogeneity in B cell fates due to an intrinsic gradient of stimulant exposure

Highlights: • CD40-signaled B cells in cultures form three-dimensional homotypic aggregates. • These tight aggregates hinder the free diffusion of large molecule stimulants. • The resulting concentration gradient of stimulants leads to heterogeneous cell fates. • We describe a flow cytometric approach to quantify this positional information. Monocultures of several cell types result in the formation of robust clusters called homotypic aggregates (HAs). How this physical aggregation affects cell fates in immune cell cultures, is poorly understood. We studied anti-CD40-stimulated primary B cell cultures, where cells assembled into large three-dimensional LFA1-driven HAs by 72 h. The dense packing in these aggregates restricts the infiltration of stimulants, such as antibodies, to cells inside the clusters. This creates a concentration gradient of stimulant availability across the cross-section of HAs. We describe a method to retain this positional information even after the disruption of HAs, for analysis by flow cytometry. Comparison of stage-specific cell-surface markers showed that the extent of stimulant-binding affected multiple fates non-uniformly. While germinal center and lineage markers were moderately upregulated, immunoglobulins and markers associated with memory were more than doubled in the peripheral cells binding more anti-CD40. These cells also experienced a strong repression of the plasma cell regulator Prdm1 and an upregulation of the oncogene Myc. Thus, cells at different locations in HAs are subjected to unequal doses of stimulants, leading to a hitherto unreported source of heterogeneity in cell fates. These findings can be extrapolated to understand the dose-dependent effects of stimulants in other three-dimensional cell clusters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach to Fundamental Mechanism Discovery in Polymer Upcycling

We present a new experimental methodology for detailed experimental investigations of depolymerization reactions over solid catalysts. This project aims to address a critical need in fundamental research on chemical upcycling of polymers – the lack of rapid, sensitive, isomerselective probing techniques for the detection of reaction intermediates and products. Our method combines a heterogeneous catalysis reactor for the study of multiphase (gas/polymer melt/solid) systems, coupled to a vacuum UV photoionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer. This apparatus draws on our expertise in probing complex gas-phase chemistry and enables highthroughput, detailed chemical speciation measurements of the gas phase above the catalyst, providing valuable information on the heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Using this approach, we investigated the depolymerization of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) over Ir-doped zeolite catalysts. We showed that the product distribution was dominated by low-molecular weight alkenes with terminal C=C double bonds and revealed the presence of many methyl-substituted alkenes and alkanes, suggesting extensive methyl radical chemistry. In addition, we investigated the fundamental reactivity of model oligomer molecules n-butane and isobutane over ZSM-5 zeolites. We demonstrated the first direct detection of methyl radical intermediates, confirming the key role of methyl in zeolite-catalyzed activation of alkanes. Our results show the potential of this experimental method to achieve deep insight into the complex depolymerization reactions and pave the way for detailed mechanistic studies, leading to increased fundamental understanding of key processes in chemical upcycling of polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2008

What Would Have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?

Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the sci entific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depl eting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory m easurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements t hat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fu lly-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an ann ual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation 1.7 % of the globa lly-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed b y 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observ ed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower strat osphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near ze ro by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as curren tly observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increa ses, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.

Newman, Paul A.↗