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Results for “Distributionally robust optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Parameter Selection for Distributed Optimal Power Flow

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvatureinformed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.

alternating current optimal power flow↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant: Preprint

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructural Engineering of Cu-Rich Nanoprecipitate formation in NiCoFeCrCu0.12 High-Entropy Alloy via Severe Plastic Deformation for Enhanced Irradiation Tolerance

This study demonstrates a defect-engineering approach for controlling Cu-rich precipitates in FeNiCrCoCu0.2 high-entropy alloys (Cu-HEAs), delivering a novel pathway for next-generation nuclear reactor materials with superior irradiation resistance. This work establishes that severe plastic deformation (SPD) processing via Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) and Friction Stir Layer Deposition (FSLD) creates dense dislocation networks and subgrain boundaries that fundamentally alter precipitation behavior under identical thermal treatments. Atom probe tomography (APT) indicates that SPD produces a metastable, atomically homogeneous solid solution that, upon moderate heat treatment (500°C/10 hour), develops remarkedly stronger Cu clustering than the as-cast counterpart. High-temperature exposure (800°C/100 h) produces near-pure Cu precipitates (~90 at% Cu) with significantly enhanced defect-sink efficacy in SPD-processed alloys: precipitate sizes of 50-60 nm and number densities of 2.7-3.8 × 10¹7 m?³, compared to 89 nm and 0.44 × 10¹7 m?³ in as-cast materials. Collectively, the findings establish defect-mediated precipitation control as a scalable, high-impact route to tailor sink density and distribution in HEAs, enabling microstructures optimized for irradiation tolerance and mechanical robustness in nuclear reactor environments.

Meher, Subhashish↗
DOE OSTI2026

There and Back Again: Reimagining Cryogenic Cooling for Scalable Arrays of Dilution Refrigerators for future Quantum Datacenters

While pulse tube cryocoolers enabled the rapid expansion of dilution refrigerator technology over the past two decades, the transition to large-scale quantum systems is now driving a reassessment of the DR’s higher-temperature-stage cooling strategies and how these systems can be effectively scaled in a modular way. Quasi-wet architectures based on centralized cryoplants and forced-flow helium distribution offer compelling advantages in energy efficiency, operational cost, and scalability. With appropriate redundancy, standardized interfaces, and optimized distribution system designs, these architectures will provide a practical and robust path forward for the next generation of quantum computing infrastructure.

Hansen, B. [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

OptiBench: An Optimization Benchmark Tool for Renewable Energy Problems

We propose a benchmark framework and visualization tool, OptiBench, for analyzing the performance of state-of-the-art optimization solvers across a variety of optimization problems in renewable energy research. Our framework is designed from the ground up in the Julia programming language and enables analysis at scale on high performance computing (HPC) systems. Our visualization tool allows effortless evaluation of optimization solver performance, robustness, and accuracy through intuitive plots, e.g., performance profiles, heat maps, and distribution plots. We have tested three benchmark suites relevant to the modeling of renewable energy systems, viz., CUTEst, PGLib-OPF, and WaterTAP water treatment optimization problems. We illustrate benchmarking of CUTEst using OptiBench on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) HPC Kestrel. Our findings indicate that MA57 HSL linear solver demonstrated the best overall performance for an experimental IPOPT implementation. Our work is ongoing and we intend to add support for more optimization solvers and benchmark test suites in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

OptiBench: An Optimization Benchmark Tool for Renewable Energy Problems

We propose a benchmark framework and visualization tool, OptiBench, for analyzing the performance of state-of-the-art optimization solvers across a variety of optimization problems in renewable energy research. Our framework is designed from the ground up in the Julia programming language and enables analysis at scale on high performance computing (HPC) systems. Our visualization tool allows effortless evaluation of optimization solver performance, robustness, and accuracy through intuitive plots, e.g., performance profiles, heat maps, and distribution plots. We have tested three benchmark suites relevant to the modeling of renewable energy systems, viz., CUTEst, PGLib-OPF, and WaterTAP water treatment optimization problems. We illustrate benchmarking of CUTEst using OptiBench on the National Laboratory of the Rockies's (NLR) HPC Kestrel. Our findings indicate that MA57 HSL linear solver demonstrated the best overall performance for an experimental IPOPT implementation. Our work is ongoing and we intend to add support for more optimization solvers and benchmark test suites in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A survey of nonlinear robust optimization

Robust optimization (RO) has attracted great attention from the optimization community over the past decade. RO is dedicated to solving optimization problems subject to uncertainty: design constraints must be satisfied for all the values of the uncertain parameters within a given uncertainty set. Uncertainty sets may be modeled as deterministic sets (boxes, polyhedra, ellipsoids), in which case the RO problem may be reformulated via worst-case analysis, or as families of distributions. The challenge of RO is to reformulate or approximate robust constraints so that the uncertain optimization problem is transformed into a tractable deterministic optimization problem. Most reformulation methods assume linearity of the robust constraints or uncertainty sets of favorable shape, which represents only a fraction of real-world applications. This survey addresses nonlinear RO and includes problem formulations and applications, solution approaches, and available software with code samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large Scale Bilevel Optimization for N-K SCOPF Using Adversarial Robustness

Ensuring a secure dispatch against multiple simultaneous outages has long been desired to maintain grid security in the presence of severe events, such as extreme weather phenomena. Traditionally denoted as N-k security constrained optimal power flow (N-k SCOPF), this problem is intractable to solve due to its size being combinatorial in the number of simultaneous outages and due to the non-convex nature of the AC network constraints. This hinders the use of N-k SCOPF for operating realistic-scale systems. In this paper, we introduce a methodology to scalably solve an AC-feasible dispatch that improves security over k simultaneous outages. Our methodology poses N-k SCOPF as a bilevel optimization problem and solves it using an adversarial robustness approach. We develop new efficient methods to solve each level of the bilevel optimization by employing knowledge of the physics of the underlying system. This yields significant improvements in speed and convergence that enable us to address the N-k SCOPF problem at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by conducting a comprehensive analysis of an N-3 SCOPF for a 500-bus network. Furthermore, we emphasize the ability of our physics-driven techniques to handle larger systems by successfully scaling up to 12,000 buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Grid-Aware Market Participation of Aggregate Flexible Resources

Increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) within distribution feeders provides unprecedented flexibility at the distribution-transmission interconnection. With the new FERC 2222 order, DER aggregations are allowed to participate in energy market. To enable market participation, these virtual power plants need to provide their generation cost curves. This paper proposes efficient optimization formulations and solution approaches for the characterization of hourly as well as multi-time-step generation cost curves for a distribution system with high penetration of DERs. Network and DER constraints are taken into account when deriving these cost curves, and they enable active distribution systems to bid into the electricity market. The problems of deriving linear and quadratic cost curves are formulated as robust optimization problems and tractable reformulation/solution algorithm are developed to facilitate efficient calculations. The proposed formulations and solution algorithm are validated on a realistic test feeder with high penetration of flexible resources.

aggregated distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Robustness Guarantees for Feedback-Based Optimization

Feedback-based online optimization algorithms have gained traction in recent years because of their simple implementation, their ability to reject disturbances in real time, and their increased robustness to model mismatch. While the robustness properties have been observed both in simulation and experimental results, the theoretical analysis in the literature is mostly limited to nominal conditions. In this work, we propose a framework to systematically assess the robust stability of feedback-based online optimization algorithms. We leverage tools from monotone operator theory, variational inequalities and classical robust control to obtain tractable numerical tests that guarantee robust convergence properties of online algorithms in feedback with a physical system, even in the presence of disturbances and model uncertainty. The results are illustrated via an academic example and a case study of a power distribution system.

approximation algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two-Stage Distributionally Robust Conic Linear Programming over 1-Wasserstein Balls

Here, this paper studies two-stage distributionally robust conic linear programming under constraint uncertainty over type-1 Wasserstein balls. We present optimality conditions for the dual of the worst-case expectation problem, which characterizes worst-case uncertain parameters for its inner maximization problem. This condition offers an alternative proof, a counterexample, and an extension to previous works. Additionally, the condition highlights the potential advantage of a specific distance metric for out-of-sample performance, as exemplified in a numerical study on a facility location problem with demand uncertainty. Furthermore, cutting-plane-based algorithms, equipped with a unified scenario generation framework, are proposed for addressing both unbounded support and second-stage dual feasible regions, with a finite convergence proof under less stringent assumptions.

Wasserstein↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Online Joint Optimization–Estimation Architecture for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose an optimal joint optimization-estimation architecture for distribution networks, which jointly solves the optimal power flow (OPF) problem and static state estimation (SE) problem through an online gradient-based feedback algorithm. The main objective is to enable a fast and timely interaction between the OPF decisions and state estimators with limited sensor measurements. First, convergence and optimality of the proposed algorithm are analytically established. Then, the proposed gradient-based algorithm is modified by introducing statistical information of the inherent estimation and linearization errors for an improved and robust performance of the online OPF decisions. Overall, the proposed method eliminates the traditional separation of operation and monitoring, where optimization and estimation usually operate at distinct layers and different time scales. Hence, it enables a computationally affordable, efficient, and robust online operational framework for distribution networks under time-varying settings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗