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DOE OSTI2023

Disruption halo current rotation scaling on Alcator C-Mod and HBT-EP

Asymmetric halo currents (HCs) can exert large net forces on the vacuum vessel and other components during disruptions on tokamaks. The displacements caused by these forces can then be amplified if these asymmetric forces rotate at frequencies resonant with the vessel. This paper reports on the investigation of a recently proposed scaling law for the disruption HC rotation frequency [Saperstein et al., “Halo current rotation scaling in post-disruption plasmas,” Nucl. Fusion 62, 026044 (2022)] that combines measurements on Alcator C-Mod with those on HBT-EP. We find that a new non-circular version of the scaling law [ ⟨ f rot ⟩ m / ⟨ m ⟩ ∝ 1 B T ( S / π )] takes into consideration the dependence of frot on the poloidal structure of the MHD instability (m) driving the asymmetry and describes the disruption-averaged rotation frequency on C-Mod. Disruption rotation is also found to be insensitive to the vertical position and impurity content of the plasma at the onset of the disruption. However, a stagnation in the time evolution of frot is occasionally observed. In conclusion, observations are consistent with the dominance of poloidal rotation during the disruption, which is motivated by the poloidal drift nature of the scaling law.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interaction of SPI pellets with plasma on JET and associated disruptions

Abstract The presented data refer to the Shattered Pellet Injector (SPI) experiments carried out at JET in 2019–2020. This paper is a full journal version of the data originally presented as posters at TMPDM_2020 and EPS_2021. This paper presents various aspects of the interaction of pellets with plasma and associated disruptions. The experiment was performed with I p = (1.1–3.1) MA plasmas and mainly with Ne + D 2 pellet composition, but also with Ar pellets. The Current Quench (CQ) time, τ 80−20 , is the key characteristic of mitigation effectiveness. A pellet with a high content of Ne or Ar can reduce the CQ duration below the upper required JET threshold. Plasmas with high (thermal + internal poloidal magnetic) pre-disruptive plasma energy require a high content of Ne pellets to obtain a short CQ duration. Pellets with a small amount of Ne (and accordingly large amount of D), instead of causing a mitigated CQ, create the conditions for a ‘cold’ Vertical Displacement Events (VDE). The SPI was applied to plasma with different status: mainly to normal (‘healthy’) plasma, i.e. not prone to disruption, post-disruptive and VDE plasma. This study shows that SPI effectiveness in terms of CQ duration and, accordingly, EM loads does not depend on the state of the plasma, whether it is ‘healthy’ or post-disruptive plasma. SPI has been shown to reduce the axisymmetric vertical vessel reaction forces by about (30–40) % compared to unmitigated disruptions. On JET, the VDE, whether ‘hot’ or ‘cold’, always creates the conditions for a toroidal asymmetry in the plasma, so the VDE on the JET is referred to as Asymmetric VDE (AVDE). The interrupting of VDE and prevention of AVDE with SPI has been demonstrated. Thus, the effectiveness of disruption mitigation using SPI has been confirmed.

Gerasimov, S. N. (ORCID:0009000237937211)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and experimental qualification of novel disruption prevention techniques on DIII-D

Novel disruption prevention solutions spanning a range of control regimes are being developed and tested on DIII-D to enable ITER success. First, a new real-time control algorithm has been developed and tested for regulating nearness to stability limits and maintaining safety-margins. Its first application has been for reliable prevention of vertical displacement events (VDEs) by adjusting plasma elongation (κ) and the inner-gap between the plasma and inner-wall in response to real- time open-loop VDE growth rate (γ) estimators. VDEs were robustly prevented up to average open-loop growth rates of 800 rad/s with initial tunings, with only applying shape modification when near safety limits. Second, the disruption risk during fast, emergency shutdown after large tearing and locked modes can be significantly improved by transitioning to a limited topology during shutdown. More than 50% of emergency limited shutdowns after locked modes reach a final normalized current I N < 0.3 before terminating, scaling to the 3 MA ITER requirement. This is in contrast to diverted shutdowns, the majority of which disrupt at I N > 0.8. Despite improvements, these results highlight the critical importance of early prevention. Third, a novel emergency shut down method has been developed which excites instabilities to form a warm, helical core post-thermal quench. The current quench extends to ~100ms and avoids VDEs and runaway electron generation. Novel real-time machine learning disruption prediction has been integrated with the DIII-D proximity controller, and a real- time compatible multi-mode MHD spectroscopy technique has been developed. Results presented here were enabled by a focused effort, the Disruption Free Protocol, in DIII-D’s 2019-20 campaign to complement disruption prevention experiments with a large piggy-back program. In addition to testing novel techniques, it is estimated to have helped avoid 32 potential disruptions in piggyback operations with rapid, early shutdowns after large rotating n=1 or locked modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1996

Cometary Nuclei and Tidal Disruption: The Geologic Record of Crater Chains on Callisto and Ganymede

Prominent crater chains on Ganymede and Callisto are most likely the impact scars of comets tidally disrupted by Jupiter and are not secondary crater chains. We have examined the morphology of these chains in detail in order to place constraints on the properties of the comets that formed them and the disruption process. In these chains, intercrater spacing varies by no more than a factor of 2 and the craters within a given chain show almost no deviation from linearity (although the chains themselves are on gently curved small circles). All of these crater chains occur on or very near the Jupiter-facing hemisphere. For a given chain, the estimated masses of the fragments that formed each crater vary by no more than an order of magnitude. The mean fragment masses for all the chains vary by over four orders of magnitude (W. B. McKinnon and P. M. Schenk 1995, Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1829-1832), however. The mass of the parent comet for each crater chain is not correlated with the number of fragments produced during disruption but is correlated with the mean mass of the fragments produced in a given disruption event. Also, the larger fragments are located near the center of each chain. All of these characteristics are consistent with those predicted by disruption simulations based on the rubble pile cometary nucleus model (in which nuclei are composed on numerous small fragments weakly bound by self-gravity), and with those observed in Comet D/Shoemaker-Levy 9. Similar crater chains have not been found on the other icy satellites, but the impact record of disrupted comets on Callisto and Ganymede indicates that disruption events occur within the Jupiter system roughly once every 200 to 400 years.

Schenk, Paul M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Tidal Disruptions of Main-sequence Stars. IV. Relativistic Effects and Dependence on Black Hole Mass

Using a suite of fully relativistic hydrodynamic simulations applied to main-sequence stars with realistic internal density profiles, we examine full and partial tidal disruptions across a wide range of black hole mass (10(exp 5)≤M(BH)/M(ʘ)≤5 x 10(exp 7) and stellar mass (0.3≤M(*)/M(ʘ)≤3) as larger M(BH) leads to stronger relativistic effects. For fixed M( ), as M(BH) increases, the ratio of the maximum pericenter distance yielding full disruptions ( ) to its Newtonian prediction rises rapidly, becoming triple the Newtonian value for M(BH)=5 x 10(exp 7)M(ʘ), while the ratio of the energy width of the stellar debris for full disruptions to the Newtonian prediction decreases steeply, resulting in a factor of 2 correction at M(BH)=5 x 10(exp 7)M(ʘ). We provide approximate formulae that express the relativistic corrections of both R(t) and the energy width relative to their Newtonian approximate estimates. For partial disruptions, we find that the fractional remnant mass for a given ratio of the pericenter to R(t) is higher for larger M(BH). These results have several implications. As M(BH) increases above ~10(exp 7)M(ʘ), the cross section for complete disruptions is suppressed by competition with direct capture. However, the cross-section ratio for partial to complete disruptions depends only weakly on M(BH). The relativistic correction to the debris energy width delays the time of peak mass-return rate and diminishes the magnitude of the peak return rate. For M(BH)≳10(exp 7)M(ʘ), the M(BH)-dependence of the full disruption cross section and the peak mass-return rate and time is influenced more by relativistic effects than by Newtonian dynamics.

Taeho Ryu↗

NASA NTRS2020

Tidal Disruptions of Main-sequence Stars. IV. Relativistic Effects and Dependence on Black Hole Mass

Using a suite of fully relativistic hydrodynamic simulations applied to main-sequence stars with realistic internal density profiles, we examine full and partial tidal disruptions across a wide range of black hole mass( MM105 105BH7)and stellar mass (MM0.33) as larger MBH leads to stronger relativistic effects. For fixed Må, as MBH increases, the ratio of the maximum pericenter distance yielding full disruptions (t) to its Newtonian prediction rises rapidly, becoming triple the Newtonian value for= ́MM510BH7, while the ratio of the energy width of the stellar debris for full disruptions to the Newtonian prediction decreases steeply, resulting in a factor of 2 correction at= ́MM510BH7. We provide approximate formulae that express the relativistic corrections of both t and the energy width relative to their Newtonian approximate estimates. For partial disruptions, we find that the fractional remnant mass for a given ratio of the pericenter to t is higher for larger MBH. These results have several implications. As MBH increases above~M107, the cross section for complete disruptions is suppressed by competition with direct capture. However, the cross-section ratio for partial to complete disruptions depends only weakly on MBH. The relativistic correction to the debris energy width delays the time of peak mass-return rate and diminishes the magnitude of the peak return rate. ForMM10BH7, the MBH-dependence of the full disruption cross section and the peak mass-return rate and time is influenced more by relativistic effects than by Newtonian dynamics.

Taeho Ryu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Capture, disruption, and extraction apparatus and method

A cell capture, disruption, and extraction method includes a introducing a plurality of abrasives in a disruption chamber, which can include diamond powder, variably and multi dimensionally disbursed therein, and a pestle positioned in the disruption chamber. The method includes agitating the abrasives by moving the disruption chamber and/or pestle, agitation of the abrasives tearing cell structure in the solution to access its contents. A binding column or size exclusion column can be positioned downstream of the disruption chamber. Cell solution can first be introduced in the disruption chamber, the abrasives capturing the cells and allowing therethrough and purging the waste content, then breaking the cell content. The lysate can then bind to an extraction matrix downstream of the disruption chamber or it can be mixed in with the abrasives.

Peyvan, Kianoosh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prevention of resistive wall tearing mode major disruptions with feedback

Resistive wall tearing modes (RWTMs) can cause major disruptions. A signature of RWTMs is that the rational surface is sufficiently close to the wall to interact with it. For (m,n) = (2,1) modes, a RWTM requires normalized minor radius of the rational surface ρ q2 ≥ 0.75, which can also be expressed as q 75 ≤ 2. Major disruptions can occur when the criterion is satisfied. This is confirmed in simulations and theory and in a DIII-D locked mode disruption database. The q 75 < 2 criterion is valid at high β as well as at low β. A very important feature of RWTMs is that they can be feedback stabilized. If the ρ q2 criterion is not satisfied, or if the wall is ideally conducting, then the mode does not produce a major disruption, although it can produce a minor disruption. Feedback, or rotation of the mode at the wall by complex feedback, can emulate an ideal wall, preventing major disruptions. The ρ q2 criterion depends weakly on the wall radius. A simple geometric model of its dependence on wall radius is given.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Auriga Streams – I: disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass haloes at multiple resolutions

In a hierarchically formed Universe, galaxies accrete smaller systems that tidally disrupt as they evolve in the host’s potential. We present a complete catalogue of disrupting galaxies accreted onto Milky Way-mass haloes from the Auriga suite of cosmological magnetohydrodynamic zoom-in simulations. We classify accretion events as intact satellites, stellar streams, or phase-mixed systems based on automated criteria calibrated to a visually classified sample, and match accretions to their counterparts in haloes re-simulated at higher resolution. Most satellites at the present day have lost substantial amounts of stellar mass – 67 per cent have $f_\text{bound} < 0.97$ (our threshold of lost stellar mass to no longer be considered intact), while 53 per cent satisfy a more stringent $f_\text{bound} < 0.8$. Streams typically outnumber intact systems, contribute a smaller fraction of overall accreted stars, and are substantial contributors at intermediate distances from the host centre ($\sim$0.1 to $\sim 0.7R_\text{200m}$, or $\sim$35 to $\sim$250 kpc for the Milky Way). We also identify accretion events that disrupt to form streams around massive intact satellites instead of the main host. Streams are more likely than intact or phase-mixed systems to have experienced pre-processing, suggesting this mechanism is important for setting disruption rates around Milky Way-mass haloes. All of these results are preserved across different simulation resolutions, though we do find some hints that satellites disrupt more readily at lower resolution. The Auriga haloes suggest that disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass galaxies are the norm and that a wealth of tidal features waits to be uncovered in upcoming surveys.

galaxies: haloes↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected long-term effects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic

The aftermath of the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the widening of disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes due to differential disruptions to CRC screening. This comparative microsimulation analysis uses two CISNET CRC models to simulate the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes. We evaluate three channels through which screening was disrupted: delays in screening, regimen switching, and screening discontinuation. The impact of these disruptions on long-term CRC outcomes was measured by the number of life-years lost due to CRC screening disruptions compared to a scenario without any disruptions. While short-term delays in screening of 3–18 months are predicted to result in minor life-years loss, discontinuing screening could result in much more significant reductions in the expected benefits of screening. These results demonstrate that unequal recovery of screening following the pandemic can widen disparities in CRC outcomes and emphasize the importance of ensuring equitable recovery to screening following the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards Interpretable Machine Learning-based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

In this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently missing for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. Thanks to the univariate analysis on the features used in such data-driven applications on both tokamaks, we are able to statistically highlight differences in the dominant disruption precursors: JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous MHD modes. Even though the analyzed datasets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show how data-driven algorithms trained on one device can be used to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios on the other. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Tidal disruption and the origin of the Moon

The dynamic problem of the tidal disruption of a rocky planetismal was solved by a direct integration of the fully three-dimensional, nonlinear equations of motion. The hypothesis that any object that passes within the Roche limit is disrupted was disproven. A time dependent solution was performed numerically, treating the planetismal as a fluid with a Murnaghan equation of state in the solid regions and zero pressure otherwise. Calculations show that a rocky body which passes by the Earth on a parabolic orbit with a perigee within the Roche limit is not tidally disrupted. Objects on hyperbolic orbits would experience even less tidal disruption. The results herein do not apply to bodies with very low viscosity. It is shown, however, that tidal disruption can be ruled out as a mechanism for reducing planetismal masses. Mechanisms for forming the Moon which rely upon tidal disruption are unlikely to be correct.

Mizuno, H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Current disruptions in the near-earth neutral sheet region

Current disruption events observed by the Charge Composition Explorer during 1985 and 1986 are examined. Occurrence of current disruption was accompanied by large magnetic field turbulence and frequently with reversal in the sign of the field component normal to the neutral sheet. Current disruptions in the near-earth region are found to be typically shortlived (about 1-5 min), and their onsets coincide well with the ground onsets of substorm expansion or intensification in the local time sector of the footpoint of the spacecraft. These events are found almost exclusively close to the field reversal plane of the neutral sheet (within about 0.5 RE). Prior to current disruption the field strength can be reduced to as low as one seventh of the dipole field value and can recover to nearly the dipole value after disruption. The temporal evolution of particle pressure in the near-earth neutral sheet during the onset of current disruption indicates that the current buildup during the substorm growth phase is associated with enhancement in the particle pressure at the neutral sheet.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Recovery of the Disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

There occurred a unique and significant disruption of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16. Here we document the return of the QBO to its normal downward phase speed and period based on Singapore soundings, MERRA-2 re-analysis (Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications), and a simple QBO model. Daily averaged zonal winds from 100-10 hPa are used to characterized the behavior of the QBO's amplitude and phase as seen in the first two EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). These EOFs capture the QBO structure and evolution during the pre-disruption, disruption, and post-disruption times. Results show that the amplitude and phase returned to normal by June 2016, however the post-disruption QBO phase was delayed relative to the pre-disruption phase by four tenths of a QBO cycle (~11 months). A rapid, seasonal, phase shift of this magnitude is shown to be unique in the QBO observational record.

Coy, Lawrence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗