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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Strengthening Deterrence for 21st Century Strategic Conflicts and Competition: Accelerating Adaptation and Integration - Annotated Bibliography

This was the fourth in a series of annual events convened at Livermore to exploring the emerging place of the “new domains” in U.S. deterrence strategies. The purposes of the series are to facilitate the emergence of a community of interest that cuts across the policy, military, and technical communities and to inform laboratory strategic planning. U.S. allies have also been drawn into the conversation, as U.S. deterrence strategies are in part about their protection. Discussion in these workshops is on a not-for-attribution basis. It is also makes no use of classified information. On this occasion, there were nearly 100 participants from a dozen countries.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2018

Annotated Bibliography for Workshop: "Adapting Deterrence Strategies to a Changing Security Environment"

The list of readings below provides some overview and background for the topics covered in the workshop. While some references are to book or materials not available online, where possible references include links to accessible versions of articles. Key questions posed for the workshop: 1. How are the U.S. and its allies adapting their deterrence strategies to the evolving security environment? Are they converging or diverging? 2. Is the balance of strategic influence shifting favourably or unfavourably in Europe and Asia? 3. What can be done to accelerate deterrence transformation and improved strategic competitiveness

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2018

U.S. Extended Deterrence in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific: Similarities, Differences, and Interdependencies - A Workshop Summary

The purpose of the workshop was to compare how U.S. extended deterrence in Europe and the Asia-Pacific has been adapting to growing security challenges, explore what U.S. allies from both regions can learn from each other, and examine how U.S. security guarantees in both regions are interrelated. The event brought together almost 60 government and nongovernmental experts from the United States, NATO member states, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. This was the second workshop on cross-regional perspectives on U.S. extended deterrence sponsored by CGSR. The first event, co-organized by the CGSR, took place in October 2015.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nonproliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament and Extended Deterrence in the New Security Environment

To address the challenges of the emerging security environment and its impact on extended deterrence and assurance, there has been an effort in the United States to ensure it maintains capabilities for extended deterrence, to enhance assurances and to continue to pursue with allies non- and counter-proliferation and counterterrorism - including defenses and consequence management-as priorities. These and other activities are important to the US and its allies, and are essential to maintaining and strengthening the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) bargain. As the developments leading to the ban treaty suggest, the political requirement for dealing with calls for disarmament in the NPT context is indisputable. This may not have been the understanding of the negotiators of the treaty, but it is today's reality.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

"Compete, Deter, and Win" in a Trans-Regional Perspective: On Meeting the New Challenges of Extended Deterrence

On February 26-27, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop to examine extended deterrence in a transregional perspective the challenges of the “compete, deter, and win” strategy set out in the U.S. National Defense Strategy. This was the Center’s third annual workshop on extended deterrence. This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities. Among the 65 participants, 10 were from allied countries in Europe and 12 from allied countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century The U.S. Nuclear Deterrent in 2030 and Beyond: Fit for Purpose?

The 13th annual Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century (SW21) workshop brought together a mixture of senior officials from the laboratory, policy, military, and expert communities to promote a high-level focus and well-informed discussion on key deterrence challenges for the U.S. nuclear deterrent over the coming decade and beyond. It brought together interested stakeholders from the national security laboratories, federal government, military, think tank, and academic communities, as well as allied counterparts, to share perspectives in an unclassified setting.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1976

Flight test of a stall sensor and evaluation of its application to an aircraft stall deterrent system using the NASA LRC general aviation simulator

A series of flight maneuvers were developed to cover the range of flight conditions and to define the repeatability and hysteresis of the sensors. Initial flights were made with two sensors at the + or - 68 percent span and 60 percent and 70 percent chord stations. The primary effort in simulation program development was to modify the LRC General Aviation Simulator (GAS) Fortran programs to allow execution on the MSU UNIVAC 1106. A simple model of the sensor-servo stall deterrent system was developed. A one degree of freedom model of pitch dynamics of the airplane and stall deterrent system was developed to make initial estimates of the control system gains. A position error plus rate damping control algorithm was found to have acceptable characteristics.

Bennett, G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Investigation of a stall deterrent system utilizing an acoustic stall sensor

A simple rugged acoustic stall sensor which has an output proportional to angle of attack near wing stall has been evaluated on a Cessna 319 aircraft. A sensor position has been found on the wing where the sensor output is only slightly affected by engine power level, yaw angle, flap position and wing roughness. The NASA LRC General Aviation Simulator has been used to evaluate the acoustic sensor output as a control signal for active stall deterrent systems. It has been found that a simple control algorithm is sufficient for stall deterrence.

Bennett, A. G.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling Economic Interdependence in Deterrence Using a Serious Game

In order to understand the effect of economic interdependence on conflict and on deterrents to conflict, and to assess the viability of online games as experiments to perform research, an online serious game was used to gather data on economic, political, and military factors in the game setting. These data were operationalized in forms analogous to variables from the real-world Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) dataset. A set of economic predictor variables was analyzed using linear mixed effects regression models in an attempt to discover relationships between the predictor variables and conflict outcomes. Differences between the online game results and results from the real world are discussed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Los Alamos National Laboratory Human and Intellectual Capital for Sustaining Nuclear Deterrence

This paper provides an overview of the current human and intellectual capital at Los Alamos National Laboratory, through specific research into the statistics and demographics as well as numerous personal interviews at all levels of personnel. Based on this information, a series of recommendations are provided to assist Los Alamos National Laboratory in ensuring the future of the human and intellectual capital for the nuclear deterrence mission. While the current human and intellectual capital is strong it stands on the precipice and action must be taken to ensure Los Alamos National Laboratory maintains leadership in developing and sustaining national nuclear capabilities. These recommendations may be applicable to other areas of the nuclear enterprise, including the Air Force, after further research and study.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bat Impact Minimization Technology: An Improved Bat Deterrent for the Full Swept Rotor Area of Any Wind Turbine

The growth in the number of wind turbine generators has led to a significant number of fatal interactions with bat species. The need to reduce the number of bat fatalities while minimizing power losses is the greatest conservation challenge for wind energy development in parts of the country, according to the American Wind Wildlife Institute. Technological solutions that can also allow turbines to operate normally would generate the maximum electricity and avoid financial losses. Bats use echolocation to perceive their surroundings by listening to features of echoes from their high frequency vocal signals reflecting from targets. In this project, Frontier Wind built on previous research demonstrating that ultrasonic noise can mask echolocation and act as a repellent or deterrent to bat flight activity. Whereas the initial study only broadcast ultrasonic transmissions from the center of the turbine, the Strike Free™ system developed for this project extended the ultrasonic coverage to the entire area swept by the turbine blades. Frontier Wind designed the system components and their integration and then tested them in the lab and in the field at Pattern Energy’s Hatchet Ridge Wind Facility near Redding, California. The researchers used an acoustic model to determine the optimal configuration of transmitters along the blades to provide sound transmission coverage across the turbine rotor swept area volume. The custom ultrasonic transmitters were designed specifically for the echolocation frequencies of the four main bat species that have been shown to have died at Hatchet Ridge, although the transmitters can be customized for different frequencies as needed in other geographic locations. The Strike Free™ system shows promise for reducing bat fatalities, and the path to commercialization requires further testing to validate and optimize performance in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental trials of species-specific bat flight responses to an ultrasonic deterrent

Unintended consequences of increasing wind energy production include bat mortalities from wind turbine blade strikes. Ultrasonic deterrents (UDs) have been developed to reduce bat mortalities at wind turbines. Our goal was to experimentally assess the species-specific effectiveness of three emission treatments from the UD developed by NRG Systems. We conducted trials in a flight cage measuring approximately 60 m × 10 m × 4.4 m (length × width × height) from July 2020 to May 2021 in San Marcos, Texas, USA. A single UD was placed at either end of the flight cage, and we randomly selected one for each night of field trials. Trials focused on a red bat species group (Lasiurus borealis and Lasiurus blossevillii; n = 46) and four species: cave myotis (Myotis velifer; n = 57), Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis; n = 73), evening bats (Nycteceius humeralis; n = 53), and tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus; n = 17). The trials occurred during three treatment emissions: low (emissions from subarrays at 20, 26, and 32 kHz), high (emissions from subarrays at 38, 44, and 50 kHz), and combined (all six emission frequencies). We placed one wild-captured bat into the flight cage for each trial, which consisted of an acclimation period, a control period with the UD powered off, and the three emission treatments (order randomly selected), each interspersed with a control period. We tracked bat flight using four thermal cameras placed outside the flight cage. We quantified the effectiveness of each treatment by comparing the distances each bat flew from the UD during each treatment vs. the control period using quantile regression. Additionally, we conducted an exploratory analysis of differences between sex and season and sex within season using analysis of variance. Broadly, UDs were effective at altering the bats’ flight paths as they flew farther from the UD during treatments than during controls; however, results varied by species, sex, season, and sex within season. For the red bat group, bats flew farther from the UD during all treatments than during the control period at all percentiles (p < 0.001), and treatments were comparable in effectiveness. For cave myotis, all percentile distances were farther from the UD during each of the treatments than during the control, except the 90th percentile distance during high, and low was most effective. For evening bats and Brazilian free-tailed bats, results were inconsistent, but high and low were most effective, respectively. For tricolored bats, combined and low were significant at the 10th–75th percentiles, high was significant at all percentiles, and combined was most effective. Results suggest UDs may be an effective means of reducing bat mortalities due to wind turbine blade strikes. We recommend that continued research on UDs focus on low emission treatments, which have decreased sound attenuation and demonstrated effectiveness across the bat species evaluated in this study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar Summary Report

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted the 2nd Annual Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar on November 17th, 2015 in Livermore, CA. The seminar was sponsored by LLNL’s Center for Global Security Research (CGSR), National Security Office (NSO), and Global Security program. This summary covers the seminar’s panels and subsequent discussions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar Bibliography

In November 2015, the Center for Global Security Research, NSO, and Global Security program jointly sponsored a seminar investigating questions related to cross-domain deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. At the seminar, experts were asked to moderate discussion based on the four topics below. For each of these topics, we have compiled a short list of literature that will help analysts develop a baseline understanding of the issue.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence FY 2016 Data Analysis Annual Report

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) has facilitated the installation of more than 3,500 radiation portal monitors (RPMs) at 606 sites in 56 countries worldwide. This collection of RPMs represents the world’s largest network of radiation detectors and provides one element in the defense-in-depth approach that supports the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture. These systems support NSDD’s mission to build partner country capability to deter, detect, and interdict the illicit transport of radiological and fissile material through strategic points of entry and exit at seaports, airports, and border crossings. NSDD works collaboratively with partner countries and international organizations to optimize the operation of these RPMs. The large amount of data provided by NSDD partner countries highlights the close cooperation and partnerships NSDD has built with 56 countries around the world. Thirty-seven of these countries shared at least some RPM-related data with NSDD in fiscal year 2016. This significant level of data sharing is a key element that distinguishes the NSDD office as unique among nuclear nonproliferation programs and initiatives: NSDD can provide specific, objective, data-driven decisions and support for sustaining the radiation detection systems it helped deploy. This data analysis report summarizes and aggregates the RPM data provided to the NSDD office for analysis and review in fiscal year 2016. The data can be used to describe RPM performance and characterize the wide diversity of NSDD deployment sites. For example, NSDD deploys detector systems across sites with natural background radiation levels that can vary by a factor of approximately six from site to site. Some lanes have few occupancies, whereas others have approximately 8,000 occupancies per day and the different types of cargo that travel through a site can result in site-wide alarm rates that range from near 0% at some sites to above 3% at others. Based on the data received, the global average uptime for NSDD RPMs was above 96% for fiscal year 2016. NSDD takes all of these factors into account in making recommendations to partner countries on how to most effectively manage and maintain site operations. NSDD utilizes reports and other information products created by data analysts to efficiently allocate the resources needed to detect and ultimately interdict illicit nuclear and radiological material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2018

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence: May 2-3, 2018 Workshop Summary

In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗