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DOE OSTI2026

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic and genetic consequences of a steelhead supplementation program

Abstract Objective Supplementation of naturally spawning populations by the addition of hatchery-spawned individuals is commonly conducted for recovery of threatened and endangered populations and to support harvest opportunities. Our objective was to evaluate whether the use of a juvenile captive broodstock and an integrated paradigm could increase returns of steelhead, the anadromous form of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, while avoiding negative genetic impacts commonly associated with hatchery propagation. Methods We analyzed 291 genetic markers in adult steelhead returning to an integrated population in southwest Washington over the course of 15 years. Reproductive success (RS) of fish spawning in the natural environment was evaluated by origin (hatchery versus natural) and return year. Data were then pooled over years to maximize sample sizes for comparing RS estimates among groups (i.e., estimation of relative reproductive success [RRS]). Result We observed a weak relationship between RS and origin (male p = 0.347; female p = 0.066), but a significant relationship between RS and return year (male p < 0.001, η2 = 0.896; female p ⟨ 0.001, η2 = 0.867) (i.e., hatchery- and natural-origin fish did well or poorly together each year). Estimates of RRS for fish spawned in the hatchery ranged from 2.4 to 6.4, indicating that fish spawned in the hatchery produced more returning adult progeny than did fish allowed to spawn in the natural environment. Estimates of RRS were ⟨1.0 for hatchery-origin fish spawning in the natural environment, but the difference was nonsignificant for males and marginally significant for females. Hatchery-origin fish exhibited reduced genetic diversity as well as evidence of increased temporal population structure. Conclusion We conclude that the program was successful in achieving an increase in adult returns but not in avoiding negative genetic effects on the population and that any lasting impacts of supplementation remain to be determined.

Smith, Christian T. (ORCID:0000000240522669)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Core-collapse supernovae in the Dark Energy Survey: luminosity functions and host galaxy demographics

ABSTRACT We present the luminosity functions and host galaxy properties of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) core-collapse supernova (CCSN) sample, consisting of 69 Type II and 50 Type Ibc spectroscopically and photometrically confirmed supernovae over a redshift range 0.045 < z < 0.25. We fit the observed DES griz CCSN light curves and K-correct to produce rest-frame R-band light curves. We compare the sample with lower redshift CCSN samples from Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Lick Observatory Supernova Search (LOSS). Comparing luminosity functions, the DES and ZTF samples of SNe II are brighter than that of LOSS with significances of 3.0σ and 2.5σ, respectively. While this difference could be caused by redshift evolution in the luminosity function, simpler explanations such as differing levels of host extinction remain a possibility. We find that the host galaxies of SNe II in DES are on average bluer than in ZTF, despite having consistent stellar mass distributions. We consider a number of possibilities to explain this – including galaxy evolution with redshift, selection biases in either the DES or ZTF samples, and systematic differences due to the different photometric bands available – but find that none can easily reconcile the differences in host colour between the two samples and thus its cause remains uncertain.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Testing AGN outflow and accretion models with C IV and He II emission line demographics in z ≈ 2 quasars

Using ≈190 000 spectra from the 17th data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we investigate the ultraviolet emission line properties in z ≈ 2 quasars. Specifically, we quantify how the shape of C IV λ1549 and the equivalent width (EW) of He II λ1640 depend on the black hole mass and Eddington ratio inferred from Mg II λ2800. Above L/L Edd ≳ 0.2, there is a strong mass dependence in both C IV blueshift and He II EW. Large C IV blueshifts are observed only in regions with both high mass and high accretion rate. Including X-ray measurements for a subsample of 5000 objects, we interpret our observations in the context of AGN accretion and outflow mechanisms. The observed trends in He II and 2 keV strength are broadly consistent with theoretical qsosed models of AGN spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for low spin black holes, where the ionizing SED depends on the accretion disc temperature and the strength of the soft excess. High spin models are not consistent with observations, suggesting SDSS quasars at z ≈ 2 may in general have low spins. We find a dramatic switch in behaviour at L/L Edd ≲ 0.1: the ultraviolet emission properties show much weaker trends, and no longer agree with qsosed predictions, hinting at changes in the structure of the broad line region. Overall, the observed emission line trends are generally consistent with predictions for radiation line driving where quasar outflows are governed by the SED, which itself results from the accretion flow and hence depends on both the SMBH mass and accretion rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Impacts to COVID-19 Herd Immunity Thresholds Under Demographic Heterogeneity that Lowers Vaccine Effectiveness

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. Although highly efficacious vaccines were developed at an unprecedented rate, the heterogeneity in vaccinated populations has reduced the ability to achieve herd immunity. Specifically, as of Spring 2022, the 0–4 year-old population is still unable to be vaccinated and vaccination rates across 5-11 year olds are low. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy for older populations has further stalled efforts to reach herd immunity thresholds. This heterogeneous vaccine landscape increases the challenge of anticipating disease spread in a population. We developed an age-structured Susceptible-InfectiousRecovered-type mathematical model to investigate the impacts of unvaccinated subpopulations on herd immunity. The model considers two types of undervaccination - age-related and behaviorrelated - by incorporating four age groups based on available FDA-approved vaccines. The model accounts for two different types of vaccines, mRNA (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna) and vector (e.g., Johnson and Johnson), as well as their effectiveness. Our goal is to analyze different scenarios to quantify which subpopulations and vaccine characteristics (e.g., rate or efficacy) most impact infection levels in the United States, using the state of New Mexico as an example.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Demographics, Stellar Populations, and Star Formation Histories of Fast Radio Burst Host Galaxies: Implications for the Progenitors

We present a comprehensive catalog of observations and stellar population properties for 23 highly secure host galaxies of fast radio bursts (FRBs). Our sample comprises 6 repeating FRBs and 17 apparent nonrepeaters. We present 82 new photometric and 8 new spectroscopic observations of these hosts. Using stellar population synthesis modeling and employing nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs), we find that FRB hosts have a median stellar mass of ≈10 9.9 M ⊙ , mass-weighted age ≈5.1 Gyr, and ongoing star formation rate ≈1.3 M ⊙ yr -1 but span wide ranges in all properties. Classifying the hosts by degree of star formation, we find that 87% (20 of 23 hosts) are star-forming, two are transitioning, and one is quiescent. The majority trace the star-forming main sequence of galaxies, but at least three FRBs in our sample originate in less-active environments (two nonrepeaters and one repeater). Across all modeled properties, we find no statistically significant distinction between the hosts of repeaters and nonrepeaters. However, the hosts of repeating FRBs generally extend to lower stellar masses, and the hosts of nonrepeaters arise in more optically luminous galaxies. While four of the galaxies with the clearest and most prolonged rises in their SFHs all host repeating FRBs, demonstrating heightened star formation activity in the last ≲100 Myr, one nonrepeating host shows this SFH as well. Our results support progenitor models with short delay channels (i.e., magnetars formed via core-collapse supernova) for most FRBs, but the presence of some FRBs in less-active environments suggests a fraction form through more delayed channels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic alignment demographics for next-generation lensing: Revealing galaxy property trends with DESI Y1 direct measurements

We present direct measurements of the intrinsic alignments (IA) of over 2 million spectroscopic galaxies using DESI Data Release 1 and imaging from four lensing surveys: DES, HSC, KiDS, and SDSS. In this uniquely data-rich regime, we take initial steps towards a more tailored IA modelling approach by building a library of IA measurements across colour, luminosity, stellar mass, and redshift. We map the dependence between galaxy type -- in terms of rest-frame colour, strength of the 4000 Angstrom break, and specific star formation rate -- and IA amplitude; the bluest galaxies have an alignment consistent with zero, across low ($0.05

Siegel, J. [Princeton U.]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Abstract Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expanding Activity Allocation Models to Daily Activities: Tracking Simulated Agent Trips to Exercise Locations in Clarksville, TN

Exercise facilities have been proven to have numerous physical, mental, and psychological benefits, yet exercise facilities are still inaccessible to a large portion of the population. This study serves to explore the accessibility of fitness centres through geographical, demographic, and temporal lenses through an expansion of the UrbanPop framework that seeks to allocate simulated agents to fitness centres in the Clarksville metro to explore the effects of travel distances on different demographics throughout the week. Findings indicate that senior and retired demographics consistently travel longer distances to exercise in the larger Clarksville area, likely due to tendencies to live further from the center of the metropolitan area. Furthermore, all demographics tend to travel further distances to exercise on the weekends rather than the weekdays, indicating that travel distance can affect likelihood of agents to travel, especially on weekdays when many agents are in the workforce or participating in schooling.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Global Biogeophysical Impact of Area and Mass Based Wood Harvest in a Vegetation Demography Model

Wood harvesting alters land surface properties and energy redistribution, but there is a lack of studies estimating these changes on a global scale. We coupled a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, with the E3SM land model to perform offline model simulation to investigate the land biogeophysical responses, including canopy coverage, leaf area index, albedo, surface roughness length, and energy fluxes, to historical wood harvest on the global scale. In this study, we found 50% less harvested carbon (C) when choosing the area-based harvest rate as driving data that has not been spatially harmonized, compared to reharmonized mass-based harvesting. By considering the uncertainty from reconstruction of historical wood harvest time series and the choice of wood harvest approach in the model, continuous wood harvest (1850–2015) results in 5%–10% of canopy coverage loss, contributing 0.5%–1% increase of albedo over disturbed land, which is much stronger than a non-demographic land surface model. Changes in energy flux from the wood harvest are negligible (<1%), but the responses of land surface properties vary (up to 30%) due to differences in model structure between the single canopy, sun-shade leaf model and vegetation demographic model.

Shu, Shijie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗