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At least 55 records · Page 3

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovery of Signatures, Anomalies, and Precursors in Synchrophasor Data with Matrix Profile and Deep Recurrent Neural Networks (Final Project Report)

The widespread deployment of phasor measurement unit (PMU) across the U.S. together with the burgeoning machine learning technology made it possible to develop data-driven PMU data analytics to improve grid security and reliability in a more insightful and effective manner. Although PMU applications have been explored for over a decade, the representative PMU usage is limited to the bulk power system monitoring mainly due to the data integrity issues associated with PMUs (typically missing, fragmented, and wrongly amplified data). To forge a breakthrough on this stalemate and embrace PMUs for power system control and protection as well, we applied various advanced machine learning and big data analysis technology to the power system event detection and classification as the first step toward the power system control and protection pertaining to grid security enhancement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fully Convolutional Spatio-Temporal Models for Representation Learning in Plasma Science

We have trained a fully convolutional spatio-temporal model for fast and accurate representation learning in the challenging exemplar application area of fusion energy plasma science. The onset of major disruptions is a critically important fusion energy science issue that must be resolved for advanced tokamak plasmas such as the $25B burning plasma international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) experiment. While a variety of statistical methods have been used to address the problem of tokamak disruption prediction and control, recent approaches based on deep learning have proven particularly compelling. In the present paper, we introduce further improvements to the fusion recurrent neural network (FRNN) software suite, which delivered cross-machine disruption predictions with unprecedented accuracy using a large database of experimental signals from two major tokamaks. Up to now, FRNN was based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) variant of recurrent neural networks to leverage the temporal information in the data. Here, we implement and apply the "temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)" architecture to the time-dependent input signals. Furthermore, this allows highly optimized convolution operations to carry the majority of the computational load of training, thus enabling a reduction in training time, and the effective use of high-performance computing resources for hyperparameter tuning. At the same time, the TCN-based architecture achieves better predictive performance when compared with the LSTM architecture for various tasks for a representative fusion database.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Predicting Adverse Events and their Precursors in Aviation Using Multi-Class Multiple-Instance Learning

In recent years, there has been a rapid growth in the application of machine learning techniques that leverage aviation data collected from commercial airline operations to improve safety. Anomaly detection and predictive maintenance have been the main targets for machine learning applications. However, this paper focuses on the identification of precursors, which is a relatively newer application. Precursors are events correlated with adverse events that happen prior to the adverse event itself. Therefore, precursor mining provides many benefits including understanding the reasons behind a safety incident and the ability to identify signatures, which can be tracked throughout a flight to alert the operators of an potential upcoming adverse event. This work proposes using the multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework, a weakly supervised learning task, combined with a carefully designed Multi-Head Convolutional Neural Networks-Recurrent Neural Networks (MHCNN-RNN) architecture to predict different type of adverse events for any given flights and identify their precursors with little to no post-processing.Results obtained show that the MHCNN-RNN is able to accurately forecast high speed and high path angle events during the approach, and that it is also capable of determining the aircraft’s parameters that are correlated to these events. These parameters can be considered precursors to the events.

multiple instance learning↗

Revisiting the Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations Challenge: A Machine Learning Perspective

Forecasting ground magnetic field perturbations has been a long-standing goal of the space weather community. The availability of ground magnetic field data and its potential to be used in geomagnetically induced current studies, such as risk assessment, have resulted in several forecasting efforts over the past few decades. One particular community effort was the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) challenge of ground magnetic field perturbations that evaluated the predictive capacity of several empirical and first principles models at both mid- and high-latitudes in order to choose an operative model. In this work, we use three different deep learning models-a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent network and a convolutional neural network-to forecast the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field rate of change (dB H /dt) over 6 different ground magnetometer stations and to compare as directly as possible with the original GEM challenge. We find that, in general, the models are able to perform at similar levels to those obtained in the original challenge, although the performance depends heavily on the particular storm being evaluated. We then discuss the limitations of such a comparison on the basis that the original challenge was not designed with machine learning algorithms in mind.

Victor A. Pinto↗

Towards data-driven constitutive modelling for granular materials via micromechanics-informed deep learning

The analytical description of path-dependent elastic-plastic responses of a granular system is highly complicated because of continuously evolving microstructures and strain localisation within the system undergoing deformation. This study offers an alternative to the current analytical paradigm by developing micromechanics-informed machine-learning based constitutive modelling approaches for granular materials. A set of critical variables associated with the constitutive behaviour of granular materials are identified through an incremental stress-strain relationship analysis. Depending on the strategy to exploit the priori micromechanical knowledge, three different training strategies are explored. The first model uses only the measurable external variables to make stress predictions; the second model utilises a directed graph to link all the external strain sequences and internal microstructural evolution variables into a single prediction model comprised of a series of sub-mappings, and the third model explicitly integrates the physically important non-temporal properties with external strain paths into training through an enhanced Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). These three models show satisfactory agreement with unseen test specimens based on multi-directional loading cases. The basic features and potential applications of each model are explained. Lastly, the key factors for constitutive training and limitations of the current work are also discussed in detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗

Tracing and Forecasting Metabolic Indices of Cancer Patients Using Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

We develop a patient-specific dynamical system model from the time series data of the cancer patient’s metabolic panel taken during the period of cancer treatment and recovery. The model consists of a pair of stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks and a fully connected neural network in each unit. It is intended to be used by physicians to trace back and look forward at the patient’s metabolic indices, to identify potential adverse events, and to make short-term predictions. When the model is used in making short-term predictions, the relative error in every index is less than 10% in the L ∞ norm and less than 6.3% in the L 1 norm in the validation process. Once a master model is built, the patient-specific model can be calibrated through transfer learning. As an example, we obtain patient-specific models for four more cancer patients through transfer learning, which all exhibit reduced training time and a comparable level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that this modeling approach is reliable and can deliver clinically acceptable physiological models for tracking and forecasting patients’ metabolic indices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Predicts Stress–Strain Relations of Granular Materials Based on Triaxial Testing Data

This study presents an AI-based constitutive modelling framework wherein the prediction model directly learns from triaxial testing data by combining discrete element modelling (DEM) and deep learning. A constitutive learning strategy is proposed based on the generally accepted frame-indifference assumption in constructing material constitutive models. The low-dimensional principal stress-strain sequence pairs, measured from discrete element modelling of triaxial testing, are used to train recurrent neural networks, and then the predicted principal stress sequence is augmented to other high-dimensional or general stress tensor via coordinate transformation. Through detailed hyperparameter investigations, it is found that long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks have similar prediction performance in constitutive modelling problems, and both satisfactorily predict the stress responses of granular materials subjected to a given unseen strain path. Furthermore, the unique merits and ongoing challenges of data-driven constitutive models for granular materials are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Framework for the Analysis of Deep Neural Networks in Autonomous Aerospace Applications using Bayesian Statistics

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are considered to be key components in many autonomous systems. Applications range from vision-based obstacle avoidance to intelligent/learning control and planning. Safety-critical applications as found in the aerospace domain require that the behavior of the DNN is validated and tested rigorously for safety of the autonomous system (AUS). In this paper, we present a framework to support testing of DNNs and the analysis of the network structure. Our framework employs techniques from statistical modeling and active learning to effectively generate test cases for DNN safety testing and performance analysis. We will present results of a case study on a physics-based Deep recurrent residual neural network (DR-RNN), which has been trained to emulate the aerodynamics behavior of a fixed-wing aircraft.

Deep Neural networks↗

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dense Feature Tracking of Atmospheric Winds with Deep Optical Flow

Atmospheric winds are a key physical phenomenon impacting natural hazards, energy transport, ocean currents, large-scale circulation, and ecosystem fluxes. Observing winds is a complex process and presents a large gap in NASA’s Earth Observation System. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) aim to fill this gap by making numerical estimates of cloud movement between sequences of multi-spectral satellite images, tracking clouds and water vapor. Recent imaging hardware and software advancements have enabled the use of numerical optical flow techniques to produce accurate and dense vector fields outperforming traditional methods. This work presents WindFlow as the first machine learning based system for feature tracking atmospheric motion using optical flow. Due to the lack of large-scale satellite-based observations, we leverage high-resolution numerical simulations from NASA's GEOS-5 Nature Run to perform supervised learning and transfer to satellite images. We demonstrate that our approach using deep learning based optical flow scales to ultra-high-resolution images of size 2881x5760 with less than 1 m/s bias and 2.5 m/s average error. Four network and learning architectures are compared and it is found that recurrent all-pairs field transforms (RAFT) produces the lowest errors on all metrics for wind speed and direction. Results on held out numerical outputs shows RAFT's good performance in each of the spatial, temporal, and physical dimensions. A comparison between WindFlow and an operational AMV product against rawinsonde observations show that RAFT transfers across simulations and thermal infrared satellite observations. This work shows that machine learning based optical flow is an efficient approach to generating robust feature tracking for AMVs consistently over large regions.

Atmospheric winds↗

Spatio-Temporal Deep Graph Network for Event Detection, Localization, and Classification in Cyber-Physical Electric Distribution System

This work proposes a deep graph learning framework to identify, locate, and classify power, cyber, and cyber power events at the distribution system level. The proposed algorithm jointly exploits spatial, temporal, and node-level cyber and physical data features. The developed graph neural network, together with a deep autoencoder, utilizes physical measurements from distribution level phasor measurement units and cyber data from communication network logs. The spatial structure of the synchrophasor measurements and network is incorporated through a weighted adjacency matrix. The temporal structure is incorporated by defining a spatial operation in the gated recurrent unit. This spatio-temporal learning element resides inside a power event detection, localization, and classification module that provides the degree of confidence for an event label. To accurately pinpoint the location of an event to the nearest bus equipped with a measurement unit, a combination of squared error and proximity score is utilized. Also included is a cyber event detection module that employs heteroskedasticity to analyze the significance of various cyber features during different types of attacks. Finally, a dual-bit cyber-power decision table determines the nature of the event. The proposed method is validated on two distribution systems modeled in OPAL-RT/Hypersim with limited phasor measurement units for different possible physical and cyber events. Further analyses include comparison with other state-of-the-art methods and validation in the presence of measurement noise. As a result, our method outperforms existing approaches and achieves an average detection accuracy of 97.97%, F1-score of 96.88%, precision of 96.53%, and recall of 98.57%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A generative artificial intelligence framework for long-time plasma turbulence simulations

Generative deep learning techniques are employed in a novel framework for the construction of surrogate models capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of 2D plasma turbulence. The proposed Generative Artificial Intelligence Turbulence (GAIT) framework enables the acceleration of turbulence simulations for long-time transport studies. GAIT leverages a convolutional variational auto-encoder and a recurrent neural network to generate new turbulence data from existing simulations, extending the time horizon of transport studies with minimal computational cost. The application of the GAIT framework to plasma turbulence using the Hasegawa–Wakatani (HW) model is presented, evaluating its performance via various analyses. Very good agreement is found between the GAIT and the HW models in the spatiotemporal Fourier and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition spectra, the flow topology characterized by the Okubo–Weiss parameter, and the time autocorrelation function of turbulent fluctuations. Excellent agreement has also been obtained in the probability distribution function of particle displacements and the effective turbulent diffusivity. In-depth analyses of the latent space of turbulent states, choice of hyperparameters and alternative deep learning models for the time prediction are presented. Our results highlight the potential of Artificial Intelligence-based surrogate models to overcome the computational challenges in turbulence simulation, which can be extended to other situations such as geophysical fluid dynamics.

Artificial intelligence↗

Spatio–Temporal Machine Learning for Regional to Continental Scale Terrestrial Hydrology

Integrated hydrologic models can simulate coupled surface and subsurface processes but are computationally expensive to run at high resolutions over large domains. Here we develop a novel deep learning model to emulate subsurface flows simulated by the integrated ParFlow–CLM model across the contiguous US. We compare convolutional neural networks like ResNet and UNet run autoregressively against our novel architecture called the Forced SpatioTemporal RNN (FSTR). The FSTR model incorporates separate encoding of initial conditions, static parameters, and meteorological forcings, which are fused in a recurrent loop to produce spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater. We evaluate the model architectures on their ability to reproduce 4D pressure heads, water table depths, and surface soil moisture over the contiguous US at 1 km resolution and daily time steps over the course of a full water year. The FSTR model shows superior performance to the baseline models, producing stable simulations that capture both seasonal and event–scale dynamics across a wide array of hydroclimatic regimes. The emulators provide over 1,000× speedup compared to the original physical model, which will enable new capabilities like uncertainty quantification and data assimilation for integrated hydrologic modeling that were not previously possible. Our results demonstrate the promise of using specialized deep learning architectures like FSTR for emulating complex process–based models without sacrificing fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning and deep learning tools for the automated capture of cancer surveillance data

The National Cancer Institute and the Department of Energy strategic partnership applies advanced computing and predictive machine learning and deep learning models to automate the capture of information from unstructured clinical text for inclusion in cancer registries. Applications include extraction of key data elements from pathology reports, determination of whether a pathology or radiology report is related to cancer, extraction of relevant biomarker information, and identification of recurrence. With the growing complexity of cancer diagnosis and treatment, capturing essential information with purely manual methods is increasingly difficult. These new methods for applying advanced computational capabilities to automate data extraction represent an opportunity to close critical information gaps and create a nimble, flexible platform on which new information sources, such as genomics, can be added. This will ultimately provide a deeper understanding of the drivers of cancer and outcomes in the population and increase the timeliness of reporting. These advances will enable better understanding of how real-world patients are treated and the outcomes associated with those treatments in the context of our complex medical and social environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Learning macroscopic internal variables and history dependence from microscopic models

This paper concerns the study of history dependent phenomena in heterogeneous materials in a two-scale setting where the material is specified at a fine microscopic scale of heterogeneities that is much smaller than the coarse macroscopic scale of application. Here, we specifically study a polycrystalline medium where each grain is governed by crystal plasticity while the solid is subjected to macroscopic dynamic loads. The theory of homogenization allows us to solve the macroscale problem directly with a constitutive relation that is defined implicitly by the solution of the microscale problem. However, the homogenization leads to a highly complex history dependence at the macroscale, one that can be quite different from that at the microscale. In this paper, we examine the use of machine-learning, and especially deep neural networks, to harness data generated by repeatedly solving the finer scale model to: (i) gain insights into the history dependence and the macroscopic internal variables that govern the overall response; and (ii) to create a computationally efficient surrogate of its solution operator, that can directly be used at the coarser scale with no further modeling. We do so by introducing a recurrent neural operator (RNO), and show that: (i) the architecture and the learned internal variables can provide insight into the physics of the macroscopic problem; and (ii) that the RNO can provide multiscale, specifically FE 2 , accuracy at a cost comparable to a conventional empirical constitutive relation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗