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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Using Flory–Huggins-informed human-in-the-loop Bayesian optimization to map the phase diagram of polymer blends

Mapping the phase diagram of polymer blends is an essential step in controlling the structure–property relationship of polymer-based materials. However, traditional grid-based approaches are inefficient and rely on subjective judgements for terminating the experimental campaign. Artificial intelligence-guided experimentation offers a compelling alternative, especially when data-driven decision-making is interfaced with established polymer thermodynamics to improve efficiency and interpretability. Here, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian optimization approach to guide the mapping of the phase diagram of a model blend containing poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(styrene-ran-acrylonitrile). Physical information is derived from a Flory–Huggins representation of the spinodal curve, which is integrated into the Bayesian optimization process as a structured prior mean that acts as a soft constraint. Implemented as a human-in-the-loop workflow, the approach leverages optical imaging of film cloudiness with iterative Gaussian process surrogate modeling and a parameter selection decision policy to identify the composition-temperature conditions for sequential iterations. Convergence of kernel and Flory–Huggins-based hyperparameters provided a stopping criterion, ensuring an objective and interpretable termination of the experimental campaign. The framework recovered the known lower critical solution temperature (∼160 °C), while increasing material efficiency through targeted sampling. This work establishes a proof-of-concept for the application of Bayesian optimization workflows to study polymer blend miscibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput and data-driven search for stable optoelectronic AMSe 3 materials

The rapid advancement in emerging optoelectronic technologies demands highly efficient, affordable, and ecofriendly materials. In this context, ternary chalcogenides, especially ternary selenides, show early promise as a material class due to their stability and remarkable electronic, optical, and transport properties. In this work, we integrate first-principles-based high-throughput computations with machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the thermodynamic stability and optoelectronic properties of 920 valency-satisfied selenide compounds. Through investigating polymorphism, our study reveals the edge-sharing orthorhombic Pnma phase (NH 4 CdCl 3 -type) as the most stable structure for most ternary selenides. High-fidelity supervised ML models are trained and tested to accelerate stability and band gap predictions. These data-driven models pin down the most influential features that dominantly control key material characteristics. The multistep high-throughput computations identify the ternary selenides with optimal direct band gaps, light carrier masses, and strong optical absorption edges. The extensive materials screening considering phase stability, toxicity, and defect tolerance, finally identifies the seven most suitable candidates for photovoltaic applications. Two of these final compounds, SrZrSe 3 and SrHfSe 3 , have already been synthesized in a single-phase form, with the latter showing an optically suitable band gap, aligning well with our findings. The non-adiabatic molecular dynamics reveal sufficiently long photoexcited charge carrier lifetimes (on the order of nanoseconds) in some of these selected selenide materials, indicating their exciting characteristics. Overall, our study suggests a robust in silico framework that can be extended to screen large datasets of various material classes for identifying promising photoactive candidates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design Principles for the Synthesis of Self-Pillared ZSM-5 Zeolite Nanosheets

The design of next-generation materials for emerging energy and environmental applications heavily relies on empirical approaches to direct nonclassical nucleation and crystal growth pathways, polymorphism, intercrystalline transformations, and seed-assisted growth processes. A long-standing obstacle to nanoporous materials design is the complexity of their crystallization, which hinders the development of predictive models and/or physical descriptors that can guide their synthesis. In this study, we use a combination of state-of-the-art synthesis, characterization, and computational design to prepare hierarchical MFI-type zeolites, which we couple with benchmark catalytic testing to assess structure-property-performance relationships. These hierarchical materials are intergrowths of two commercially relevant zeolite frameworks, MFI and MEL, prepared as self-pillared pentasil (SPP) zeolites through seed-assisted, organic-free syntheses for which little theoretical guidance existed. Here, by comparing a large library of zeolite seeds with different pore sizes, dimensions, and structural composite building units, we determined the relative impact of seed and silica source selection, among other synthesis variables. Combined experimental and computational studies are used to test several hypotheses in literature to rationalize the choice of seed structure and establish a more robust selection criteria for seed-assisted synthesis of zeolites. Specifically, we show that a data-driven approach to develop structural descriptors correlates to new, facile routes to rationally design SPP zeolites, addressing knowledge gaps in the fundamental understanding of (non)classical crystal growth mechanisms that are characteristic of nanoporous aluminosilicates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided discovery of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation with genetic algorithm

Designing polymer membranes with high gas permeability and selectivity is a difficult multi-task constrained problem due to the trade-off between these two properties. In this work, we present a machine learning (ML) driven genetic algorithm to tackle the design problem of polymer membranes for CO 2 separation from N 2 and O 2 . Using literature data of permeability for three gases, we constructed multiple ML models with different fingerprinting featurization schemes to predict gas permeabilities. Then, we employed a genetic algorithm to design new polymers and evaluated their performance using our ML models. We were able to identify new polymer membranes that are promising for both CO 2 /N 2 and CO 2 /O 2 separations. Further, the top discovered polymers are predicted to have high glass transition temperatures. Similarly, the pyridine functionality was found in ≈20% of the predicted polymers. This framework can be used to design polymers for any application involving constrained optimization. Finally, we outlined the challenges and opportunities with using ML guided data-driven inverse design of polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of the metal–insulator transition temperature in alio-valently doped VO 2 through symbolic regression

The correlated semiconductor vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) exhibits an insulator–metal transition (IMT) near room temperature, which is of interest in various device applications. Precise IMT temperature control is crucial to determine the use cases across technologies such as thermochromic windows, actuators for robots or neuronal oscillators. Doping the cation or anion sites can modulate the IMT by several tens of degrees and control hysteresis. However, modeling the effects of control parameters (e.g., doping concentration, type of dopants) is challenging due to complex experimental procedures and limited data, hindering the use of traditional data-driven machine learning approaches. Symbolic regression (SR) can bridge this gap by identifying nonlinear expressions connecting key input parameters to target properties, even with small data sets. In this work, we develop SR models to capture the IMT trends in VO 2 influenced by different dopant parameters. Using experimental data from the literature, our study reveals a dual nature of the IMT temperature with varying tungsten (W) doping concentrations. The symbolic model captures data trends and accounts for experimental variability, providing a complementary approach to first-principles calculations. Our feature-driven analysis across a broader class of dopants informs selectivity and provides qualitative insights into tuning phase transition properties valuable for neuromorphic computing and thermochromic windows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Double-Differential Cross Section Measurement of Neutral-Current 𝜋 0 Production in Neutrino-Argon Scattering in the MicroBooNE Detector

We report the first double-differential cross section measurement of neutral-current neutral pion (NC⁢𝜋 0 ) production in neutrino-argon scattering, as well as single-differential measurements of the same channel in terms of final states with and without protons. The kinematic variables of interest for these measurements are the 𝜋 0 momentum and the 𝜋 0 scattering angle with respect to the neutrino beam. A total of 4971 candidate NC⁢𝜋 0 events fully contained within the MicroBooNE detector are selected using data collected at a mean neutrino energy of ∼0.8 GeV from 6.4 ×10 20 protons on target from the Booster Neutrino Beam at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. After extensive data-driven model validation to ensure unbiased unfolding, the Wiener-singular-value-decomposition method is used to extract nominal flux-averaged cross sections. The results are compared to predictions from commonly used neutrino event generators, which tend to overpredict the measured NC⁢𝜋 0 cross section, especially in the 0.2–0.5 GeV/c 𝜋 0 momentum range and at forward scattering angles. Events with at least one proton present in the final state are also underestimated. This data will help improve the modeling of NC⁢𝜋 0 production, which represents a major background in measurements of charge-parity violation in the neutrino sector and in searches for new physics beyond the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Weakly Supervised Machine Learning Procedure for Magnet Quench Diagnostics

Voltage taps remain the standard and reliable diagnostic tool for detecting quenches in superconducting magnets. However, they identify a quench only at the time of voltage rise and do not provide information on earlier physical precursors. In this work, we investigate whether acoustic emission data can reveal precursor activity that occurs before conventional voltage detection using machine learning techniques. We introduce an event selection method and a weakly supervised machine learning procedure to learn data-driven criteria for identifying potential acoustic precursors to quenches. Two Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures are trained: one on acoustic sensor events from our selection procedure and one on the Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) of these events. Both networks are trained iteratively using confidence-weighted loss functions to associate certain subsets of training data with a precursor label. We evaluate the performance of these models by examining the time distribution of events classified as potential precursors relative to the quench onset. Results indicate that the proposed approach can possibly distinguish acoustic emission events occurring closer to the quench from earlier acoustic activity during ramping, suggesting the potential for flagging quench precursors in acoustic data.

Khan, Maira [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000891602387)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spin-Controllable Dynamics in Defect-Engineered Carbon Nanotubes as Single Photon Emitters: Data-Driven Modeling and Computations

Quantum technologies, such as quantum computing and sensing, require efficient single-photon emission (SPE) sources that operate at room temperature in telecom wavelengths. While several materials can serve as SPE sources, no single platform meets all the criteria for efficiency, ambient operation, and scalability. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with covalently attached molecules offer a promising solution. Their SPE can be easily tuned via modifications of the SWCNT's diameter, chirality, and bonded molecules, enabling emission across near-IR to telecom wavelengths at ambient conditions. However, to fully realize the potential of SWCNTs and unlock their quantum capabilities, a deeper understanding of how structural defects from molecular adducts affect their emission and competing photoexcited processes is essential. To address this gap in our knowledge, this project combined quantum chemistry calculations with data-driven methods of cheminformatics (QSAR) and machine learning (ML). The developed computational approaches have provided several design strategies for covalent functionalization of SWCNTs to improve their optical response. The collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) enabled direct comparison of computational and experimental data, facilitating method validation. This partnership was enhanced through access to LANL's Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) utilizing User Facility Program and summer internships, which provided three NDSU graduate students with hands-on experience at LANL. The outcomes of this project included (1) Advancing the current stage of computational methods in accurate modeling of non-adiabatic spin-dependent photoexcited dynamics and its applicability to nanosystems consisting of thousands of atoms, realized as open-access codes linked to existing DFT-based software; (2) Establishing the relationship between the structure of adducts and SWCNTs and intrinsic excitonic and spin properties of defect states for guiding novel synthetic strategies and experimental probes of chemically functionalized SWCNTs as near-IR emitting materials; (3) Generating virtual libraries of hypothetical functionalized SWCNTs for virtual screening of their chemical structures and optical properties, leveraging new functionalities of SWCNTs; (4) Offering a unique experience for NDSU graduate students that prepared them for future scientific careers related to materials modeling and big data processing. These results were summarized in 12 published journal papers and 3 recently submitted papers. One of a key finding is that the position of defect sites on the SWCNT surface primarily drives the emission redshift (up to 100 meV), while the polarity of the defect-inducing molecules has a much smaller effect (~10 meV). However, the electron-donating or withdrawing properties of a molecule influence selecting reactivity of defect sites. These insights important for optimizing synthetic protocols for desired emissions in SWCNTs. We also revealed that the interaction between two defects at various positions on the SWCNT enhances the redshift and optical activity of states, favoring strong near-IR emission. This suggests that manipulations in defect concentrations is a promising strategy for controlling efficient emission. Mostly important, the defect position was found controllable by the spin states of photoexcited intermediates: Excited aromatic molecules form ortho defects with SWCNTs at their singlet states in the presence of oxygen, while oxygen-free conditions favor para defects via the triplet-state mechanism. Additionally, a heat-activated [2+2] cycloaddition reaction facilitates divalent defect formation with fewer bonding positions that narrows emission bands. These groundbreaking findings have been experimentally validated and significantly advance our understanding of defect chemistry in SWCNTs. Using a novel encoding technique and 3D-MoRSE descriptors, we developed highly accurate ML/QSAR models to predict both the 3D structure and optical properties of SWCNTs with chemical defects. This model enabled the creation of a virtual library of 125,556 structures, providing new insights into the relationship between SWCNT-defect structure and emission.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven State of Health Estimation for Second-Life Batteries Using Interpolated Synthetic Data and Feature Selection

Accurate estimation of the State of Health (SOH) for second-life batteries (SLBs) is crucial given their increasing use in energy storage applications. Precise SOH prediction is essential for safe operation and robust battery management systems. A major challenge is the limited availability of datasets for building reliable degradation models. To address this, synthetic data generation through linear interpolation is performed to extend the available data, making it more representative of real-world battery operating conditions. By analyzing feature correlation with SOH, the most relevant features are selected for the model. The proposed approach employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) model trained on this interpolated, feature-selected dataset, using time series data of voltage, temperature, and current over a cycle. By focusing on highly correlated features, the model achieves over 95% accuracy, with mean absolute error and root mean squared error up to 2.27% and 2.64%, respectively, in SOH estimation for two battery datasets tested. These results highlight the potential of combining synthetic data generation and feature selection to enhance SOH predictions, showcasing the superior performance of the proposed CNN model for both new batteries and SLBs.

feature selection↗