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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Science Shows that Entropy Correlates with Accelerated Zeolite Crystallization in Monte Carlo Simulations

We have performed a data science study of Monte Carlo simulation trajectories to understand factors that can accelerate formation of zeolite nanoporous crystals, a process that can take days or even weeks. In previous work, Monte Carlo simulations predicted and experiments confirmed that using a secondary organic structure-directing agent (OSDA) accelerates crystallization of all-silica LTA zeolite, with experiments finding a three-fold speedup [PCCP 24, 142-148 (2022)]. However, it remains unclear what physical factors cause the speed-up. Here, we apply data science to analyze the simulation trajectories to discover what drives accelerated zeolite crystallization in Monte Carlo going from a one-OSDA synthesis (1OSDA) to a two-OSDA version (2OSDA). We encoded simulation snapshots using the Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions approach, which represents all 2- and 3-body correlations within a given cutoff distance. Principal component analyses failed to discriminate datasets of structures from 1OSDA and 2OSDA simulations, while the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach succeeded at classifying such structures with an area-under-curve (AUC) score of 0.99 (where AUC = 1 is a perfect classification) with all 3-body correlations, and as high as 0.94 with only 2-body correlations. SVM decision functions reveal relatively broad / narrow histograms for 1OSDA / 2OSDA datasets, suggesting that the two simulations differ strongly in information heterogeneity. Informed by these results, we performed pair (2-body) entropy calculations during crystallization, resulting in entropy differences that semi-quantitatively account for the speedup observed in the previous Monte Carlo simulations. We conclude that altering synthesis conditions in ways that substantially changes the entropy of labile silica networks may accelerate zeolite crystallization, and we discuss possible approaches for achieving such acceleration.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ESnet Watershed Field Science Data Backhaul Campaign Report

ESnet’s Watershed Field Science Data Backhaul Campaign is intended to improve the ability to gather data from sensors deployed across the East River and Trail Creek watersheds, with a special focus on the Snodgrass distributed sensor area, the Pumphouse instruments with co-located U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) tethered balloon setup, and the former ARM SAIL campaign’s second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) site by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area (WFSFA) program. This program is not funded by ARM, but collaborates with ARM as part of the SAIL campaign, collocated with the WFSFA field sites in Colorado’s East River Watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

ParNCL and ParGAL: Data-parallel Tools for Postprocessing of Large-scale Earth Science Data

Earth science high-performance applications often require extensive analysis of their output in order to complete the scien- tific goals or produce a visual image or animation. Often this analysis cannot be done in situ because it requires calculating time-series statistics from state sampled over the entire length of the run or analyzing the relationship between similar time series from previous simulations or observations. Many of the tools used for this postprocessing are not themselves high- performance applications, but the new Parallel Gridded Analysis Library (ParGAL) provides high-performance data-parallel versions of several common analysis algorithms for data from a structured or unstructured grid simulation. The library builds on several scalable systems, including the Mesh Oriented DataBase (MOAB), a library for representing mesh data that sup- ports structured, unstructured finite element, and polyhedral grids; the Parallel-NetCDF (PNetCDF) library; and Intrepid, an extensible library for computing operators (such as gradient, curl, and divergence) acting on discretized fields. We have used ParGAL to implement a parallel version of the NCAR Command Language (NCL) a scripting language widely used in the climate community for analysis and visualization. The data-parallel algorithms in ParGAL/ParNCL are both higher performing and more flexible than their serial counterparts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

What can data science tell us about finding new superconductors?

Can data science guide researchers toward understanding superconductivity or discover new superconductors? We examine this question in light of a study in this issue of Patterns by Liu et al., who find that the superconducting transition temperature and certain computed energy intervals of the valence band are correlated.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data Science and Machine Learning in Education

The growing role of data science (DS) and machine learning (ML) in high-energy physics (HEP) is well established and pertinent given the complex detectors, large data, sets and sophisticated analyses at the heart of HEP research. Moreover, exploiting symmetries inherent in physics data have inspired physics-informed ML as a vibrant sub-field of computer science research. HEP researchers benefit greatly from materials widely available materials for use in education, training and workforce development. They are also contributing to these materials and providing software to DS/ML-related fields. Increasingly, physics departments are offering courses at the intersection of DS, ML and physics, often using curricula developed by HEP researchers and involving open software and data used in HEP. In this white paper, we explore synergies between HEP research and DS/ML education, discuss opportunities and challenges at this intersection, and propose community activities that will be mutually beneficial.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How data science methods can improve the quality and efficiency of ICF and HEDP research

Data Science methods (many that are Bayesian based) are widely used in the physical sciences to estimate model parameters from experimental data, synthesize heterogeneous data, calibrate models, design experiments, and determine statistical significance of data. These methods provide a wealth of advantages over traditional analysis techniques because: 1) uncertainties are rigorously defined and propagated naturally through complex systems including covariance, 2) prior information is captured within the analysis framework (including rad-MHD and rad-hydro simulations), 3) competing models can be selected and/or ruled out using quantitative criteria, and 4) complex, heterogeneous data can be incorporated simultaneously. While these methods have been widely adopted as the gold standard in fields such as particle physics, astronomy, and biology, they have been slow to catch on in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) research. Recently, several teams at LLNL, SNL, LANL, and the LLE have been exploring the use of these tools in their research and have found success. Here we propose that a concerted effort to consolidate these independent research efforts by developing and deploying common tools for use across the complex can revolutionize the way we approach data analysis, assimilation of theory and experiment, and decision making. The Bayesian formalism provides a means to accomplish this, but we are lacking certain infrastructure to make it happen on a large scale. Furthermore, once adopted, these techniques can be used to develop standards by which discoveries can be judged, similar to the so-called 5σ rule in high energy particle physics. Such standards may be used in the future to address the issue of unknown reproducibility in ICF and HED experiments caused by low shot rate and high cost per experiment. Our goals as a group are to advance the state of the art in HED measurement science by enabling: 1) better inferences from data with well-defined uncertainties, 2) better use of the data we have and continue to collect, 3) intelligent synthesis of data, 4) evaluation of the statistical significance of our data, and 5) informed decision making regarding the design of new experiments and instruments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Science and Computation for Rapid and Dynamic Compression Experiment Workflows at Experimental Facilities, September 8-11, 2020. Workshop Report

The application of high pressure to materials has enabled discoveries in scientific fields such as planetary science, materials science, and materials synthesis. Recent advances in X-ray user light sources and other facilities, co-location and integration of user facilities with high-pressure drivers, availability of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, and the development of new data science techniques have created opportunities for, and challenges in, advancing data analytics for rapid and dynamic compression experiments. To address these challenges, harness the emerging technology now available, and expedite scientific discovery, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosted a virtual workshop entitled “Data Science and Computation for Rapid and Dynamic Compression Workflows at Experimental Facilities” from September 8 to 11, 2020. The workshop included 95 registered scientists and analytics experts from 15 universities, 9 United States (US) national laboratories, 5 US and European X-ray light sources, neutron sources such as the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE), other big science facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), and an industry representative. The workshop included 31 invited talks and 4 lightning talks by students and postdocs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

2020 ETI Annual Summer School: Data Science and Engineering

The Consortium for Enabling Technologies & Innovation (ETI) was established in 2019 to address emerging technologies within the context of nuclear nonproliferation. ETI creates a research and education environment to support cross-cutting technologies across three core disciplines: 1) computer and engineering science research specifically in a form of machine learning and high performance computing (HPC), 2) advanced manufacturing, and 3) nuclear detection technologies. For outreach and development, ETI hosted the first of three summer schools from August 24-28, 2020 with the theme of “Data Science and Engineering”. The school was hosted in an on-line format and had over 200 participants. The recorded content is available on-line as a resource for students. The summer school had four modules: 1) Fundamentals of data Applications, 2) Computational Machine Learning, 3) Bayesian Modeling and Inference, and 4) Data Science for Safeguards. Modules contained both lectures as well as student exercises. Poll Everywhere was utilized in some modules as an on-line method to engage large groups of students. Upcoming ETI Summer Schools include Novel Instrumentation in 2021 and Advanced Manufacturing in 2022.

Biegalski, Steven R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-Situ Inference: Bringing Advanced Data Science Into Exascale Simulations

As simulations generate ever-increasing amounts of data, there are correspondingly richer opportunities for analysis and scientific discovery - discoveries that will be missed if most of the data must be discarded before it is analyzed. Because future exascale architectures will be increasingly storage-limited, it will not be possible to save the vast majority of simulation data for later analysis, requiring analysis to occur “in-situ” within the simulation. However, existing in-situ data analysis frameworks provide little or no support for one of the most sophisticated forms of data science: probabilistic statistical modeling or uncertainty quantification (UQ), and the accompanying challenge of inference - fitting those statistical models to massive simulation output. Our goal is to develop the fundamental statistical algorithms and computer science needed to perform statistical inference in-situ (in HPC simulations) to the full stream of data those simulations generate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Science Meets Physical Organic Chemistry

At the heart of synthetic chemistry is the holy grail of predictable catalyst design. In particular, researchers involved in reaction development in asymmetric catalysis have pursued a variety of strategies toward this goal. This is driven by both the pragmatic need to achieve high selectivities and the inability to readily identify why a certain catalyst is effective for a given reaction. While empiricism and intuition have dominated the field of asymmetric catalysis since its inception, enantioselectivity offers a mechanistically rich platform to interrogate catalyst-structure response patterns that explain the performance of a particular catalyst or substrate. In the early stages of an asymmetric reaction development campaign, the overarching mechanism of the reaction, catalyst speciation, the turnover limiting step, and many other details are unknown or posited based on related reactions. Considering the unclear details leading to a successful reaction, initial enantioselectivity data are often used to intuitively guide the ultimate direction of optimization. However, if the conditions of the Curtin-Hammett principle are satisfied, then measured enantioselectivity can be directly connected to the ensemble of diastereomeric transition states (TSs) that lead to the enantiomeric products, and the associated free energy difference between competing TSs (ΔΔ G ‡ = - RT ln[( S )/( R )], where ( S ) and ( R ) represent the concentrations of the enantiomeric products). We, and others, speculated that this important piece of information can be leveraged to guide reaction optimization in a quantitative way. Although traditional linear free energy relationships (LFERs), such as Hammett plots, have been used to illuminate important mechanistic features, we sought to develop data science derived tools to expand the power of LFERs in order to describe complex reactions frequently encountered in modern asymmetric catalysis. Specifically, we investigated whether enantioselectivity data from a reaction can be quantitatively connected to the attributes of reaction components, such as catalyst and substrate structural features, to harness data for asymmetric catalyst design. In this context, we developed a workflow to relate computationally derived features of reaction components to enantioselectivity using data science tools. The mathematical representation of molecules can incorporate many aspects of a transformation, such as molecular features from substrate, product, catalyst, and proposed transition states. Statistical models relating these features to reaction outputs can be used for various tasks, such as performance prediction of untested molecules. Perhaps most importantly, statistical models can guide the generation of mechanistic hypotheses that are embedded within complex patterns of reaction responses. Overall, merging traditional physical organic experiments with statistical modeling techniques creates a feedback loop that enables both evaluation of multiple mechanistic hypotheses and future catalyst design. In this Account, we highlight the evolution and application of this approach in the context of a collaborative program based on chiral phosphoric acid catalysts (CPAs) in asymmetric catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hacking Limnology Workshop and DSOS22: Creating a Community of Practice for the Nexus of Data Science, Open Science, and the Aquatic Sciences

The 2nd Aquatic Ecosystem Modeling-Junior (AEMON-J) Hacking Limnology Workshop and 3rd Virtual Summit: Incorporating Data Science and Open Science in the Aquatic Sciences (DSOS) took place on 25–29 July 2022. These virtual events were developed to bring together researchers from diverse backgrounds to share developments in data-intensive research in the aquatic sciences and train participants in cutting-edge data analysis methods related to remote sensing, data pipelines, and modeling of aquatic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Computing for Biomedical Computational and Data Sciences: A Joint DOE-NIH Roundtable

The overlap of quantum computing and biomedical research, while less explored, presents significant near-term opportunities. The Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) are interested in exploiting the DOE community’s capabilities and expertise in quantum computing to potentially advance biomedical research, targeting fundamental studies of biological and molecular structures, understanding of human health as well as mental and physical disorders and diseases, and deriving insights from clinical data. NIH’s approach to quantum computing is guided by its Strategic Plan for Data Science, emphasizing the importance of findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) data assets, security and privacy of data, and efficient computing and storage. DOE’s Office of Science (SC), and more specifically the Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program, supports quantum information science (QIS) research, contributing to a unique portfolio of quantum computing and communications expertise. This roundtable was assembled to consider the opportunities and challenges in the near-, medium-, and long-term at the intersection of quantum computing, data science, and biomedical research and how these could be addressed through inter-agency collaboration and multi-disciplinary partnerships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery of complex oxides via automated experiments and data science

Significance Automation is accelerating the discovery of useful materials, yet testing even a small fraction of the billions of possible materials for a desired property is beyond the reach of workflows involving resource-intensive property measurements. Due to relationships among composition, structure, and properties, identifying a complex material with one interesting property makes it the proverbial needle in a haystack that merits testing for additional properties. We accelerate materials synthesis and optical characterization by employing physics-aware data science to identify materials for further investigation. With this approach, one does not need high-throughput methods for measuring every material property of interest since a single ultra-high–throughput workflow can guide material selection for other properties, which is a new paradigm for accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Pulse response analysis using the Y-procedure: A data science approach

We report that pulse response experiments can provide a wealth of data for transient kinetic studies of gas phase heterogeneous reactions, with the ability to paint a detailed picture of intrinsic reaction kinetics pertaining to complex catalytic mechanisms. A novel framework called the Y-Procedure was developed by Yablonsky et al. to extract information from non-steady-state kinetic data (Yablonsky et al., 2007). The Y-Procedure reconstructs the chemical transformation rate and gas composition in the catalytic zone with no a priori assumptions on the kinetic model and is used to relate changes in catalytic reaction rates and kinetic parameters to changes in a catalyst’s surface composition. This paper provides a detailed description of the data science work flow implemented in the Y-procedure through an experimental example of oxygen adsorption on platinum. Lastly, this powerful method, along with a robust list of pre-processing methodology, will enable deeper understanding of kinetic processes and mechanism to be derived from the TAP pulse response technique.

03 NATURAL GAS↗