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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Information Theory Applied to Decision Making Structures

Decision making structures, such as control boards, process information on many topics as they select options for the system and project. The decisions are based on the information known to the board members and presenters (subject matter experts) and shared at the board during discussion. This information flow through this process can be modelled using information theory. Information theory provides a mathematical basis to understand the flow of information through the decision making process and the information needed for a particular decision. Information theory also provides the mathematical relationships on which to base the optimal decision making structure for a specific system development and organizational structure. Since decision making bodies provide control for the system or project, control theory can be used to construct a decision making model. This provides a starting point for adding cognitive science models. Information processing by each individual board participant can be represented through cognitive processes which are integrated across the board participants through information theory relationship. The set theory view of information theory provides a structure in which to look at the relationships between the participants in a decision making structure.

Watson, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Information Theory Applied to Decision Making Structures

Decision making structures, such as control boards, process information on many topics as they select options for the system and project. The decisions are based on the information known to the board members and presenters (subject matter experts) and shared at the board during discussion. This information flow through this process can be modelled using information theory. Information theory provides a mathematical basis to understand the flow of information through the decision making process and the information needed for a particular decision. Information theory also provides the mathematical relationships on which to base the optimal decision making structure for a specific system development and organizational structure. Since decision making bodies provide control for the system or project, control theory can be used to construct a decision making model. This provides a starting point for adding cognitive science models. Information processing by each individual board participant can be represented through cognitive processes which are integrated across the board participants through information theory relationship. The set theory view of information theory provides a structure in which to look at the relationships between the participants in a decision making structure.

Watson, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
NASA NTRS1981

A model of the human observer and decision maker

The decision process is described in terms of classical sequential decision theory by considering the hypothesis that an abnormal condition has occurred by means of a generalized likelihood ratio test. For this, a sufficient statistic is provided by the innovation sequence which is the result of the perception an information processing submodel of the human observer. On the basis of only two model parameters, the model predicts the decision speed/accuracy trade-off and various attentional characteristics. A preliminary test of the model for single variable failure detection tasks resulted in a very good fit of the experimental data. In a formal validation program, a variety of multivariable failure detection tasks was investigated and the predictive capability of the model was demonstrated.

Wewerinke, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

water↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Introduction to SIMRAND: Simulation of research and development project

SIMRAND: SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects is a methodology developed to aid the engineering and management decision process in the selection of the optimal set of systems or tasks to be funded on a research and development project. A project may have a set of systems or tasks under consideration for which the total cost exceeds the allocated budget. Other factors such as personnel and facilities may also enter as constraints. Thus the project's management must select, from among the complete set of systems or tasks under consideration, a partial set that satisfies all project constraints. The SIMRAND methodology uses analytical techniques and probability theory, decision analysis of management science, and computer simulation, in the selection of this optimal partial set. The SIMRAND methodology is truly a management tool. It initially specifies the information that must be generated by the engineers, thus providing information for the management direction of the engineers, and it ranks the alternatives according to the preferences of the decision makers.

Miles, R. F., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

LABQ3: Bayesian method for quantification of mineral compositions and nano-scale elemental mapping of 3D synchrotron XCT data

Quantitative analysis of mineral compositions is essential in understanding geochemical, mineralogical and environmental processes. Fine-resolution 3D imaging is widely done using synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT), but existing analyses are limited to visualization and segmentation. This paper presents a new method, Linear Attenuation Bayesian Quantitative 3D-mapper (LABQ3), based on the linearity of X-ray attenuation with respect to elemental concentrations. To address the random variability in attenuation measurements, LABQ3 employs Bayesian decision theory to minimize classification error, using reference attenuation distributions from scans of pure mineral standards. To demonstrate LABQ3 and test its performance, we studied precipitated carbonate samples. XCT scans were done at multiple energies using the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at beamline 32-ID-C of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The reconstructed 3D images have a voxel size of 20 nm. Analyses revealed rich nano-scale compositional heterogeneity within individual particles. A mixture of calcium and cadmium produced an overall stoichiometric composition of (Ca 0.78 ,Cd 0.22 )CO 3 , with some voxels containing nearly pure CdCO 3 . The addition of zinc led to an overall stoichiometric composition of 33% Ca, 28% Cd, 39% Zn, with a nearly pure CaCO 3 core and compositional zonation through the rim. These compositional gradients are related to temporal sequences of carbonate mineral formation where Cd precipitated at the beginning in (Ca,Cd)CO 3 , while Cd and Zn precipitated at the end in (Ca, Cd,Zn)CO 3 . Results differ from bulk analyses using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing that LABQ3 provides particle-specific insights. LABQ3 distinguishes itself by quantifying chemical compositions along a continuum, making it different from XCT analyses based on segmentation. LABQ3 allows simultaneous acquisition of morphology and chemical composition in 3D, facilitating the interpretation of chemical gradients of trace elements, quantification of solid solution compositions, inferences about temporal sequences of mineral precipitation, and addressing other concerns about solid-phase chemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options

The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

Thomas, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A state-of-the-art review of transportation systems evaluation techniques relevant to air transportation, volume 1

Mathematical and philosophical approaches are presented for evaluation and implementation of ground and air transportation systems. Basic decision processes are examined that are used for cost analyses and planning (i.e, statistical decision theory, linear and dynamic programming, optimization, game theory). The effects on the environment and the community that a transportation system may have are discussed and modelled. Algorithmic structures are examined and selected bibliographic annotations are included. Transportation dynamic models were developed. Citizen participation in transportation projects (i.e, in Maryland and Massachusetts) is discussed. The relevance of the modelling and evaluation approaches to air transportation (i.e, airport planning) is examined in a case study in St. Louis, Missouri.

Haefner, L. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Planetary quarantine

The overall objective is to identify those areas of future missions which will be impacted by planetary quarantine (PQ) constraints. The objective of the phase being described was to develop an approach for using decision theory in performing a PQ analysis for a Mariner Jupiter Uranus Mission and to compare it with the traditional approach used for other missions.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

EVAL system concept definition. Partial spacelab payload, appendices

Tables and charts are presented for experiment schematics, mission opportunities, mission timelines, crew time line and power profile. The methodology being developed to evaluate cost effective vibroacoustic test plans for a representative EVAL shuttle spacelab payload is analyzed. Statistical decision theory is used to quantitatively evaluate seven alternate test plans which include component, subassembly, or payload testing and combinations of component assembly testing.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1977

Methods for the evaluation of alternative disaster warning systems

For each of the methods identified, a theoretical basis is provided and an illustrative example is described. The example includes sufficient realism and detail to enable an analyst to conduct an evaluation of other systems. The methods discussed in the study include equal capability cost analysis, consumers' surplus, and statistical decision theory.

Agnew, C. E.↗