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At least 55 records · Page 3

Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

Small-scale cyclones on the periphery of a Gulf Stream warm-core ring

Small-scale cyclones found around Gulf Stream warm-core ring 82B are investigated by using infrared satellite images and current information obtained with an acoustic-Doppler velocimeter. Currents in these cyclones reveal speeds ranging from 20 to 80 cm/s. One small cyclone or 'ringlet' found in June 1982 was studied extensively by removing the basic rotational velocities of 82B. The azimuthal velocity field for this ringlet was used with the gradient current equation to calculate the absolute dynamic topography at 100 dbar. It was found that the ringlet was 13 dyn-cm lower than its surroundings. In addition, neglect of the centrifugal term would have changed the dynamic topography of the ringlet by 30 percent. From a comparison with CTD data the absolute reference level was determined, and a vertical profile of horizontal currents was calculated for the ringlet. Other cyclones were found throughout the slope water region around warm-core ring 82B with observable lifetimes of 1 to 2 weeks. The northeast quadrant of 82B was a favored generation site for ringlets. Two cyclones were observed to form in this region and were advected anticyclonically around 82B. Typically, at any one time, six cyclones with diameters of approximately 40 to 50 km can be detected north of the Gulf Stream by using satellite images.

Kennelly, M. A.↗

Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

Chen, L.↗

The kinetic and available potential energy budget of a winter extratropical cyclone system

The energy budget of an extratropical cyclone system which traversed North America and intensified through the period January 9-11, 1975 is presented. The objectives of the study are: (1) to document the complete energy budget of a significant winter cyclone event, and (2) to comment on the significance of latent heat release (LHR) in the cyclone's evolution. Results reveal an overall increase in both kinetic (K) and available potential energy (A). K increases are accounted for by boundary flux convergence of K, while A increases are due to generation by LHR and K to A conversion. In addition, the general A increase is accompanied by a 24 h oscillation that is explained largely by the flux quantity in the A budget equation and is correlated with a similar fluctuation in the K to A conversion. LHR does not appear to be critical in the development of this cyclone system. Rather, LHR acts to increase the intensity of the event. It is hypothesized that the direct influence that LHR had on the deepening cyclone's reduced mass was augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic heating, thus leading to accelerated cyclone development at a later time.

Smith, P. J.↗

The role of latent heat in kinetic energy conversions of South Pacific cyclones

The four-dimensional behavior of cyclone systems in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is analyzed. Three cyclone systems, which occurred during the period from January 10-16, 1979, are examined using the data collected during the first special observing period of the FGGE. The effects of latent heating on the life cycles of the cyclones are investigated. Particular attention is given to the conversions of eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy and of mean kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy. The net radiation profile, sensible heat flux, total field of vertical motion, and latent heat component were computed. The life cycles of the cyclones are described. It is observed that the latent heating component accounts for nearly all the conversion in the three cyclones, and latent heating within the SPCZ is the major source of eddy kinetic energy for the cyclones.

Kann, Deirdre M.↗

Tropical cyclone-upper atmospheric interaction as inferred from satellite total ozone observations

The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone in and around western Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. It was found that the TOMS-observed total ozone distribution within the subtropics during the tropical cyclone season correlated well with the tropopause topography, similar to earlier middle-latitudinal observations. This relationship made it possible to use TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric subtropical transient waves and the mutual adjustment between the tropical cyclone and the upper-tropospheric waves during their interaction. These total ozone patterns reflected the three-dimensional upper-tropospheric transport processes that were conducive for storm intensification and weakening. It was also found from satellite observations and numerical model simulations that modification of the environmental distribution of total ozone by the tropical cyclones was primarily caused by the secondary circulation associated with the tropical cyclone's outflow jet and the intrusion of stratospheric air in the eyes of tropical cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

A diagnosis of vorticity fields associated with an explosively-developing winter cyclone over the southeastern United States

A diagnosis of absolute (ABS) and potential (POV) vorticity is studied, both calculated in isobaric coordinates, associated with a cyclone that developed explosively over the southeastern United States from January 20-21, 1979. Comparison of isobaric representations of ABS and POV fields relative to an explosively developing cyclone shows that in a number of ways the two vorticity fields exhibited similar relationships to the cyclone. As the cyclone developed, it propagated cyclonically around middle and upper tropospheric ABS and POV maxima, with each being located upstream from the cyclone.

Smith, Phillip J.↗

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Kumar, Anil↗

Dust Episodes in Hong Kong (South China) and their Relationship with the Sharav and Mongolian Cyclones and Jet Streams

The study presented in this paper analyses two dust episodes in Hong Kong, one occurring in March 2006 and the other on 22 March 2010. The latter is the worst dust episode on Hong Kong record. The focus is on the relationship between the dust episodes and the Sharav/Mongolian cyclones and jet streams. The 16 March 2006 episode is traceable to a continental-scale Saharan dust outbreak of 5-9 March 2006 caused by the cold front of an East Mediterranean Sharav cyclone arriving at north-west Africa on 5 March 2006. The eastward movement of the cyclone along the North African coast is clearly illustrated in the geopotential height contours. Simulations by the chemistry transport model GOCART provide a visible evidence of the transport as well as an estimate of contributions from the Sahara to the aerosol concentration levels in Hong Kong. The transport simulations suggest that the dust is injected to the polar jet north of the Caspian Sea, while it is transported eastward simultaneously by the more southerly subtropical jet. The major source of dust for Hong Kong is usually the Gobi desert. Despite the effect of remote sources, the 16 March 2006 dust episode was still mainly under the influence of the Mongolian cyclone cold fronts. In the recent episode of 22 March 2010, the influence of the Mongolian cyclone predominated as well. It appears that the concurrent influence of the Sharav and Mongolian cyclones on Hong Kong and East Asia is not a common occurrence. Besides transporting dusts from non-East Asian sources to Hong Kong and East Asia, the strong subtropical jet on 21 March 2010 (i.e. 1 day prior to the major dust episode) is believed to have strengthened an easterly monsoon surge to South China causing the transport of voluminous dusts to Taiwan and Hong Kong the following day.

Lee, Y. C.↗

The Role of Cyclone Activity in Snow Accumulation on Arctic Sea Ice

Identifying the mechanisms controlling the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation on sea ice is crucial for understanding snow’s net effect on the surface energy budget and sea-ice mass balance. Here, we analyze the role of cyclone activity on the seasonal buildup of snow on Arctic sea ice using model, satellite, and in situ data over 1979–2016. On average, 44% of the variability in monthly snow accumulation was controlled by cyclone snowfall and 29% by sea-ice freeze-up. However, there were strong spatio-temporal differences. Cyclone snowfall comprised ~50% of total snowfall in the Pacific compared to 83% in the Atlantic. While cyclones are stronger in the Atlantic, Pacific snow accumulation is more sensitive to cyclone strength. These findings highlight the heterogeneity in atmosphere-snow-ice interactions across the Arctic, and emphasize the need to scrutinize mechanisms governing cyclone activity to better understand their effects on the Arctic snow-ice system with anthropogenic warming.

Webster, M. A.↗

APR-2 Tropical Cyclone Observations

The Second Generation Airborne Precipitation Radar (APR-2) participated in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in August and September of 2010, collecting a large volume of data in several tropical systems, including Hurricanes Earl and Karl. Additional measurements of tropical cyclone have been made by APR-2 in experiments prior to GRIP (namely, CAMEX-4, NAMMA, TC4); Table 1 lists all the APR-2 tropical cyclone observations. The APR-2 observations consist of the vertical structure of rain reflectivity at 13.4 and 35.6 GHz, and at both co-polarization and crosspolarization, as well as vertical Doppler measurements and crosswind measurements. APR-2 normally flies on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, as in GRIP, collecting data with a downward looking, cross-track scanning geometry. The scan limits are 25 degrees on either side of the aircraft, resulting in a roughly 10-km swath, depending on the aircraft altitude. Details of the APR-2 observation geometry and performance can be found in Sadowy et al. (2003).The multiparameter nature of the APR-2 measurements makes the collection of tropical cyclone measurements valuable for detailed studies of the processes, microphysics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, as well as weaker systems that are associated with tropical cyclone formation. In this paper, we give a brief overview of how the APR-2 data are processed. We also discuss use of the APR-2 cross-track winds to estimate various quantities of interest in in studies of storm intensification. Finally, we show examples of the standard products and derived information.

radar↗

Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on the Analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-Like Cyclone in a Global Modeling and Data Assimilation Framework

Polar lows, and mesoscale convective cyclones bearing resemblance to tropical cyclones but originating outside of the tropics, are storms that are challenging to represent accurately in global analyses and models because of their small size, rapid growth at subsynoptic scales, occurrence in data poor oceanic regions, and difficulties in objectively validating them in analysis. Building on previous positive results obtained with respect to the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a global model, a set of observing system experiments (OSEs) performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) are investigated, focusing on three case studies—a polar low in the Sea of Okhotsk, a polar low in the Southern Ocean, and a Mediterranean Sea tropical-like cyclone that occurred during the boreal fall season of 2014. Experiments assimilating adaptively thinned cloud-cleared hyperspectral infrared radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, with higher density in the vicinity of each storm and its pre-cyclogenesis environment, and lower density elsewhere, demonstrate a positive impact on the analyzed representation of each storm. The adaptive thinning experiments improve the storm intensity and structure, including vertical alignment, depth, symmetry, strength, and compactness of warm core compared to the reference experiments. The results suggest that jet-level processes associated with extremely strong horizontal velocity gradients as represented in the model analysis can be useful to locate dynamically active regions of the extratropical atmosphere where denser data coverage is likely to improve the analyzed representation of polar lows and other similar marine mesoscale convective cyclones.

global modeling↗

Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

Dropco, K. M.↗

Cyclone development in the South Pacific convergence zone during FGGE, 10-17 January 1979

An analysis is presented of the life cycles of three different South Pacific cyclones. Emphasis is given to two of the cyclones which propagate south-eastward along the western edge of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and reach middle latitudes before decaying. The analysis is based on imagery from the GOES-West Satellite and on data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (EMWF). A comparison between estimates of the mean sea level pressure in the vicinity of the cyclones taken at observation stations and from ECMWF predictions shows good agreement when the cyclone disturbances are above grid-scale. The propagation characteristics of the cyclones are discussed in detail.

Vincent, D. G.↗

Tropopause adjustment to tropical cyclones as inferred from satellite ozone observations

Data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer on the Nimbus-7 are used to map the climatological total ozone within and around tropical cyclones. A tropical cyclone numerical model is used to interpret total ozone patterns. The total ozone maps are used to diagnose storm intensity and to differentiate between intesifying and weakening tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone intensity versus total ozone anomaly distribution is examined and examples of mapping the total ozone of tropical cyclones in the period 1979-1982 are presented.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

The utilization of satellite observed total ozone to predict tropical cyclone recurvature

The feasibility of using satellite measurements of total ozone to delineate the characteristic upper-tropospheric wave patterns conductive for tropical cyclone recurvature was investigated using measurements by the Nimbus-7 TOMS instrument measurements of total ozone fields were used to delineate the total ozone distribution for the straight-moving, left-curving, and right-curving tropical cyclones. Using these data for 12-h and 24-h forecasts, it is shown that the composite total ozone maps could be used to differentiate the recurving tropical cyclones from nonrecurving systems, suggesting that the majority of the upper-tropospheric waves delineated by total ozone distribution were deep enough to influence the motion of the storms. The left- and the right-recurving tropical cyclones observed during the 12-hr and 24-hr periods had, respectively, higher and lower upper-tropospheric heights downstream than the nonrecurving cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗