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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Eddy Covariance Flux / Standardized Data
This dataset contains standardized Eddy Covariance Flux data.
Local and General Patterns of Terrestrial Water‐Carbon Coupling
Abstract Terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability have coupled feedbacks; specifically water uptake for plant growth and soil drying via transpiration. While we might expect this coupling over time at arid sites, climatic water availability also widely covaries geographically with biomass variables that control photosynthetic rates. Using eddy covariance data globally, we find convex, positively‐covarying relations between carbon uptake and a turbulent flux metric controlled by land surface moisture (r = 0.73 monthly across sites) at the site level. We estimate a general, empirical relationship based on site‐wise water‐carbon dynamics. Most sites, and the general relationship, show strong power‐law dependence, implicating the role of sub‐seasonal land‐cover dynamics. We also find that long‐term mean carbon/water states follow a similar convex relationship to the site‐specific temporal dynamics. We discuss opportunities and caveats for space‐for‐time frameworks of carbon/water feedback processes globally.
Data and Code for: Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits
This repository contains the simulation outputs and processing scripts associated with the study of winter wheat traits across the United States, utilizing the Ecosys agroecosystem model. The dataset includes model results for both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat systems, supporting the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits." Data includes the original Ecosys simulation outputs (archived in .db format within the compressed .zip files) and extracted analysis data (stored in .pkl files for efficient processing). Python code for data processing and figure generation is provided in a Jupyter notebook. External Observational Datasets should refer to the following official repositories for the input and validation data used in this study. The eddy covariance data from the AmeriFlux network (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/). Climate-forcing data of NLDAS-2 from NASA LDAS (https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/nldas-2-forcing-data). Soil data from the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO), available at (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/gridded-soil-survey-geographic-gssurgo-database). Crop yields, planting and harvest dates from the USDA public databases (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/; https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/actuarialinformationbrowser/CropCriteria.aspx). Satellite-derived SLOPE GPP data from ORNL DAAC (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1786). Land use and crop progress information from the USDA Crop Data Layer and Crop Progress and Condition Gridded Layers (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/). The Ecosys model code is available online at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS.
Contributions for ENDF/B-VIII.1 Paper
This paper is on contributions for ENDF/B-VIII.1. The paper covers neutron reaction covariances and touches on improved testing of nuclear data covariances. Additionally, fission is discussed along with the prompt fission neutron spectrum. Finally, it ends with a look into validation with LLNL pulsed spheres.
Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances
The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.
A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data
The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.
Performing k eff Validation of As-Loaded Criticality Safety Calculations Using UNF-ST&DARDS: Applicable Experiment Selection
The general method for performing validation of as loaded criticality safety calculations using UNF ST&DARDS is presented in a paper by Clarity, which includes a description of the UNF-ST&DARDS system. Proof-of-principle analyses were performed in the summer of 2019 for MPC-32 dual purpose canisters (DPCs) containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assemblies. Summaries of these results are presented in this and a companion paper for this conference. The current paper describes the TSUNAMI-IP calculations performed to select applicable experiments for validation of 11 MPC-32 DPCs. The companion paper discusses the TSUNAMI-3D calculations used to generate sensitivity data to support the experiment selections discussed here. Experiment selection is based on the sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods used to validate criticality safety calculations of as-loaded DPCs containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This process has been demonstrated and is summarized in this paper. The approach is similar to that used in NUREG/CR-7109, which provides an approach for validation of PWR burnup credit (BUC), including major and minor actinides and major fission products. The premise of S/U-based validation is that applicable experiments—those having a similar bias to a given application system—will have similar sensitivities for each isotope and reaction in the two systems. It is assumed that cross sections with larger uncertainties are more likely to contain data errors which contribute to the bias. The integral index c k thus propagates the system sensitivities with the nuclear covariance data to calculate a correlation coefficient representing the similarity of the two systems. In this work, a c k value of 0.8 or higher is interpreted as identifying an experiment with sufficient similarity for use in validation. This paper presents a brief summary of the characteristics of the 11 MPC-32 DPCs used in the proof of-principle analysis for as-loaded criticality safety calculation validation and an overview of the critical experiment suite with which each of these DPC models was compared. A summary and discussion of c k results is also presented, followed by conclusions and a discussion of future work to be performed for validation of UNF ST&DARDS as-loaded criticality safety calculations.
AMPX and SCALE Nuclear Data Libraries for Depletion [Slides]
This presentation touches on AMPX and SCALE nuclear data libraries for depletion. AMPX is a nuclear data processing code suite that generates continuous-energy and multigroup neutron and gamma libraries used in SCALE and VERA, covariance data used in S/U calculations, and depletion, activation and decay origin data for Oak Ridge Isotope Generation code (ORIGEN).
Improvements of Nuclear Data Evaluations for Lead Isotopes in Support of Next Generation Lead-Cooled Fast Systems
The neutron evaluation of the isotopes that comprise natural lead were undertaken as a part of DOE-NEUP Project #19-16739. The goal of the project was to update the neutron cross sections to account for new differential measurements and incorporate the most up-to-date physics. Shortcomings in the lead cross sections was made known by several independent reports. The work performed here repeated the simulation of all the “benchmark” validation systems and concluded that the major issue is the scattering cross sections in the major lead isotopes above 100 keV. Re-evaluation of 206,207,208 Pb included both the resolved resonance region and fast region evaluations of the cross sections. Combined these regions cover energies from thermal to 20 MeV. The most drastic improvement is the resolved resonance region evaluation of 208 Pb which is now extended from 1.0 to 1.5 MeV. Parameterization of these resonances in the R-matrix provides a superior reconstruction of not only the experimental cross section but also the scattering distributions via the Blatt-Biedenharn formalism. Fast region evaluations of the three major isotopes were done to include new inelastic experimental data from the neutron Time-of-Flight facility at CERN. The culmination of all the changes to the cross section is a drastic improvement in the scattering kernel as shown in Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Quasi-Differential scattering measurements and improved prediction of keff for fast integral experiments. Alongside the new cross sections, new nuclear data covariance (uncertainties) have been computed and are included in the evaluation. Little is changed in the magnitude of the uncertainties but the correlations within the covariance display non-trivial changes. The new evaluations of 206,207,208 Pb have been submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center to be included in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library. While the cross sections have been updated extensively, knowledge and modeling of the cross sections between 1.0 and 3.0 MeV for the isotopes remain a challenge. Most notably is the double differential elastic cross section for 208 Pb and 206 Pb. New quasi-differential measurements for pure samples of these two nuclei would go a long way in reducing compensating errors in the evaluations. Qualitatively, the project has produced a prosperous collaboration between the nuclear data group at RPI with staff scientists at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Naval Nuclear Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Quantitatively this is reflected in seven conference presentations, at least one journal submission, and one doctoral thesis.
Contributions for ENDF/B-VIII.1 Paper
It was discussed at WANDA2020 that some issues were found by the community and users in ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariances after their release. It was mentioned that one issue in testing ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariances was that they were provided by evaluators too late in the β-release phases that insufficient time for thorough testing was available. Therefore, the executive committee requested that first nuclear data covariances should already be delivered for ENDF/B-VIII.1β 1 in February 2023—about half a year earlier than was the case for ENDF/B-VIII.0. This additional time allowed for more stringent testing with LANL’s ENDFtk and CovVal codes, and ORNL’s AMPX code during the release phases. The LLNL covariance testing employed a combination of NJOY, empy tools from EMPIRE, and x4i.
Analytic marginalization of N(z) uncertainties in tomographic galaxy surveys
In this paper, we present a new method to marginalize over uncertainties in redshift distributions, N(z), within tomographic cosmological analyses applicable to current and upcoming photometric galaxy surveys. We allow for arbitrary deviations from the best-guess N(z) governed by a general covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in our knowledge of redshift distributions. In principle, this is marginalization over hundreds or thousands of new parameters describing potential deviations as a function of redshift and tomographic bin. However, by linearly expanding the theory predictions around a fiducial model, this marginalization can be performed analytically, resulting in a modified data covariance matrix that effectively downweights the modes of the data vector that are more sensitive to redshift distribution variations. We showcase this method by applying it to the galaxy clustering measurements from the Hyper Suprime-Cam first data release. We illustrate how to marginalize over sample variance of the calibration sample and a large general systematic uncertainty in photometric estimation methods, and explore the impact of priors imposing smoothness in the redshift distributions.
Understanding Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle bias in generalized least squares regression through eigenspectrum analysis
Certain correlation structures in the data covariance matrix (DCM) used for generalized least squares (GLS) regression can result in biased estimates, commonly known in the field of nuclear data evaluation as Peele’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). This article introduces a generative, forward modeling framework within which the PPP bias is characterized through an eigenspectrum analysis of the DCM. This analysis highlights the root cause of the bias, generalizes the problem beyond the nuclear data field, and provides insight to the problem regimes where it can occur. What follows is an understanding that the bias can show up for any experimental neutron time-of-flight data for which systematic uncertainties have been quantified. Lastly, a discussion of the adaptation of cross validation approaches that require pre-whitening to incorporate the known ‘fix’ to the PPP bias in the GLS estimator.
AmeriFlux CA-GL3 Long Point
This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL3 Long Point. Site Description - Long Point Lighthouse is located at the end of Long Point on Lake Erie. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, completed in 1916, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2012 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.
AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse
This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.
Criticality Experiments to Reduce Compensating Errors in Plutonium Nuclear Data
Compensating errors between nuclear data observables in a library can adversely impact application simulations. The primary goal of the EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) is to reduce compensating errors in nuclear data. A new criticality experiment, described in this work, was designed with the specific target nuclear data of 239 Pu fission, inelastic scattering, elastic scattering, capture, nu-bar, and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS). This work will focus on the design and execution of the EUCLID experiment, performed on the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The criticality experiment includes two different configurations with very different geometries: one is cube-like to minimize neutron leakage while the other is slab-like to maximize leakage. Having these two widely varying configurations allows the scattering sensitivities of 239 Pu to the neutron multiplication factor to be greatly changed while minimally impacting the other cross section sensitivities. Both configurations utilize the Pu ZPPR (Zero Power Physics Reactor) plates as fuel. The experiments were designed using a D-Optimality criteria, which is an optimization method minimizing the log-determinant of the adjusted nuclear data covariance for the target reactions. These experiments include not only inference of k eff , as done in all critical benchmark experiments, but several other responses as well, such as neutron multiplication measurements and reaction rate ratios. After analysis of the measured data is complete, adjustment of nuclear data will be performed to assess whether the new experimental data successfully reduced compensating errors.
Demonstration of TOFFEE: A Response Uncertainty Quantification Tool
A key characteristic in neutron transport is nuclear data. Cross-section uncertainty is not used in MCNP6.3 to propagate response uncertainty without external analysis. Here, the TOol For Fast Error Estimation (TOFFEE) is a Python-based code developed to automate the propagation of cross-section uncertainty for MCNP evaluations. TOFFEE implements the sandwich rule to calculate the uncertainty from cross sections with sensitivity coefficients from MCNP6.3 and ENDF/B covariance data. In this paper, TOFFEE has been tested with benchmark experiments, and it has been compared to the uncertainty quantification capabilities of Sampler and TSUNAMI, within SCALE, to verify the application’s capabilities.
Regional-scale soil carbon predictions can be enhanced by transferring global-scale soil–environment relationships
Accurate modelling and mapping soil organic carbon are crucial for supporting soil health restoration and climate change mitigation at both regional and global scales. However, regional soil predictions often suffer from data scarcity and high prediction uncertainty. Utilizing a pre-trained global-to-regional soil carbon predictive model can be a potential solution to address this challenge. Despite its promise, how to construct and apply the global-scale model to enhance regional-scale soil carbon mapping remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose the Global Soil Carbon Pre-trained Model (GSoilCPM), a deep-learning-based domain adaptative model, to enhance regional-scale soil carbon predictions. Based on large amount of environmental covariate data and 106,167 soil samples across the globe, we verify our hypothesis of the effectiveness of this 'global-to-regional' modelling strategy. The pre-trained model can be then transferred and fine-tuned to bridge the regional- and global-scale soil–environment relationships. We applied and validated this modelling strategy in four regional-scale study areas, three in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere, each with distinct environmental background. Compared to traditional modelling approaches as a baseline, four case studies all demonstrated significant improvement in prediction accuracy across diverse environments and varying data availabilities. The average percentage improvement across all regions is 10.93% (absolute values decreased by 1.20 g kg−1 averagely) in MAE and 29.04% (absolute values increased by 0.10 averagely) in CCC. The applicability and future horizons of using GSoilCPM were further discussed. We further reveal that regions with fewer soil samples or lower baseline accuracy benefit more from the pre-trained global model. Our findings highlight the advantages of leveraging the generalized knowledge from global models to enhance specifically localized soil modelling, positioning a potential paradigm shift in digital soil mapping, and far-reaching implications for soil monitoring and land management.