Statistical Tests for Diagnosing Fission Source Convergence and Undersampling in Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations [Slides]
There is a very strong need for statistical testing to determine fission source convergence in Monte Carlo criticality calculations. Automation of such tests will greatly streamline and support the work carried out by NCS practitioners. Recent R&D work has shown that no single statistical test for convergence is sufficiently reliable, robust, and “guaranteed.” However, a combination of several standard statistical tests for the similarity of distributions, coupled with a high-fidelity estimate of the fission-matrix source is sufficiently robust, reliable, and repeatable that convergence can be “guaranteed.” During the course of the EG-AMCT studies, a number of statistical metrics and tests were proposed for diagnosing clustering and undersampling. None of these was robust and reliable enough for practical use in production codes. However, the expert group efforts came close. Some recent R&D work stemming from those past efforts has been very successful and promising. This Sub-Group will provide international input and collaboration on the development and implementation of statistical tests for convergence, with the primary goal of having the MC codes automatically detect convergence (or lack thereof). Newly proposed statistical tests to detect undersampling (after convergence) will also be reviewed.