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Penetrative motion of individual elements in earth atmosphere and prediction of velocity field from convective overshoot
This paper introduces an Earth system modeling testbed for predicting aerosols and aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACIs) at convection‐permitting scales. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 with a four‐mode Modal Aerosol Module, we conduct simulations at 3.25 km resolution on a regionally refined mesh (RRM) across four regions with distinct aerosol and cloud regimes. Results are compared with the standard 100 km E3SM configuration and evaluated against satellite, aircraft, and ground‐based observations. We find that increasing model resolution improves heavy precipitation simulation but amplifies positive bias in light drizzle at coarse resolution. These resolution‐induced changes affect cloud and aerosol properties to varying degrees across regions. Generally, cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP) show better agreement with satellite retrievals at 3.25 km, though surface‐based comparisons suggest otherwise. Aerosol composition remains poorly represented at both resolutions. The RRM increases Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations via enhanced new particle formation. However, accumulation mode aerosols are decreased at higher resolution as aerosol removals become more efficient. This partially contributes to fewer cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and lower cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ), which produces larger model biases in some scenarios. These findings suggest that solely increasing horizontal resolution to kilometer scales is insufficient to broadly improve aerosol and cloud predictions without concurrent advancements in physical and chemical process representations. Nonetheless, the RRM moderately improves key ACI relationships such as CCN‐N d correlation, reflecting enhanced aerosol activation representation. The LWP‐N d relationship is also better captured by RRM, suggesting a better characterization of LWP adjustment.
This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.
A three dimensional study of convection in a self gravitating sphere of Boussinesq fluid with a Rayleigh number of 10 to the 10th power and a Prandtl of 1 is presented. The velocity and temperature of the fluid are computed at the largest wavelengths using spectral methods. A confirmation that the fluid is anisotropic and that the energy spectra are not smooth functions of wavelength but have a large amount of fine structure is discussed. The parameterization of the transport properties of the unresolvable inertial subrange with eddy viscosities and diffusivities is described. The time dependent fluctuations in the energy spectra and how they cascade from large to small wavelengths is examined.
The results of a numerical, three-dimensional study of convection in a self-gravitating sphere of Boussinesq fluid with a Rayleigh number of 10-billion and a Prandtl number of 1 are presented. The velocity and temperature are computed by using spectral methods in the horizontal and finite-differencing in the radial directions. An eddy viscosity and diffusivity are needed to model the subresolution flow. For Rayleigh numbers much less than 10-billion the flows do not have well-defined inertial ranges, and an eddy viscosity and diffusivity cannot be assigned in this self-consistent manner. By computing the energy spectra as well as the detailed energy budgets as a function of wavenumber, it is shown that for Rs = 10-billion there is an inertial range for the modes corresponding to spherical harmonics with l greater than 6.
A case study was made of the mesoscale convective complex (MCC) which occurred over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on 27 May 1981. This storm moved in an eastsoutheasterly direction and during much of its lifetime was observable by radars at Oklahoma City, Ok. and Stephenville, Tx. It was found that the direction of cell (VIP level 3 or more reflectivity) propagation was somewhat erratic but approximately the same as the system (VIP level 1 reflectivity) movement and the ambient wind. New cells developed along and behind the gust front make it appear that once the MCC is initiated, a synergistic relationship exists between the gust front and the MCC. The relationship between rainfall patterns and amounts and the infrared (IR) temperature field in the satellite imagery were examined. The 210 K isotherm of GOES IR imagery was found to encompass the rain area of the storm. The heaviest rainfall was in the vicinity of the VIP level 3 cells and mostly contained within the 205 K isotherm of GOES IR imagery.
A bulk planetary boundary layer (PBL) model was developed with a simple internal vertical structure and a simple second-order closure, designed for use as a PBL parameterization in a large-scale model. The model allows the mean fields to vary with height within the PBL, and so must address the vertical profiles of the turbulent fluxes, going beyond the usual mixed-layer assumption that the fluxes of conservative variables are linear with height. This is accomplished using the same convective mass flux approach that has also been used in cumulus parameterizations. The purpose is to show that such a mass flux model can include, in a single framework, the compensating subsidence concept, downgradient mixing, and well-mixed layers.
The problem of natural convection in a square cavity of a Boussinesq incompressible fluid is computed using a consistent central-difference approximation, a consistent second-order upwind scheme, and the hybrid scheme for the energy equation. It was found that, for this problem, the second-order upwind scheme yields satisfactory solutions and that an apparently low-order combination of schemes, with the second-order upwind scheme for the momentum equations and the hybrid scheme for the energy equation, can produce satisfactory predictions for this problem.
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Convective updrafts are one of the main characteristics of convective clouds, responsible for the convective mass flux and the redistribution of energy and condensate in the atmosphere. During the early stages of their lifecycle, convective clouds experience rapid cloud-top ascent manifested by a decrease in the geostationary IR brightness temperature (𝑇𝐵 𝐼𝑅 ). Under the assumption that the convective cloud top behaves like a black body, the ascent rate of the convective cloud top can be estimated as ($\frac{∂𝑇𝐵_{𝐼𝑅}}{∂𝑡}$), and it can be used to infer the near cloud-top convective updraft. The temporal resolution of the geostationary IR measurements and non-uniform beam-filling effects can influence the convective updraft estimation. However, the main shortcoming until today was the lack of independent verification of the strength of the convective updraft. Here, Doppler radar observations from the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments provide independent estimates of the convective updraft velocity at higher spatiotemporal resolution throughout the convective core column and can be used to evaluate the updraft velocity estimates from the IR cooling rate for limited samples. Isolated convective cells were tracked with dedicated radar (RHIs and PPIs) scans throughout their lifecycle. Radial Doppler velocity measurements near the convective cloud top are used to provide estimates of convective updrafts. These data are compared with the geostationary IR and VIS channels (from the GOES satellite) to characterize the convection evolution and lifecycle based on cloud-top cooling rates.
Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.
The authors analyze the influence of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and surface wind divergence on atmospheric thermodynamic structure and the resulting effects on the occurrence of deep convection using National Meteorological Center radiosonde data and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program data for July 1983-July 1985. The onset of deep convection requires not only the existence of positive convective available potential energy (CAPE), but also an unstable planetary boundary layer (PBL). A stable PBL is observed to suppress deep convection even when CAPE is positive. Variations of SST have a major effect on CAPE, but surface wind divergence can also affect deep convection by changing the lapse rate in the lower troposphere and humidity in the PBL. Specifically, when SST is greater than or equal to 28 C, CAPE is always positive, and surface wind divergence does not qualitatively change the buoyancy profile above the PBL. Strong surface wind divergence, however, stabilizes the PBL so as to suppress the initiation of deep convection. In warm SST regions, CAPE is greater than 0 regardless of assumptions about condensate loading, although the pseudoadiabatic limit is more consistent with the observed deep convection than the reversible moist-adiabatic limit under these circumstances. When SST is less than 27 C, CAPE is usually negative and inhibits convection, but strong surface wind convergence can destabilize the inversion layer and moisten the PBL enough to make the atmosphere neutrally stable in the mean. As a result, deep convection is generally enhanced either when SST is greater than or equal to 28 C in the absence of strong surface wind divergence or when strong surface wind convergence occurs even if SST is less than 27 C. The anomalous suppression of deep convection in the warm area of the equatorial west Pacific lying between the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and south Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is probably caused by dryness in the PBL and an inversion in that area. The seasonal cycles of deep convection and surface wind divergence are in phase with the maximum solar radiation and lead SST for one to three months in the central Pacific. The change of PBL relative humidity plays a critical role in the changeover to convective instability in this case. The seasonal change of deep convection and associated clouds seems not to have important effects on the seasonal change of local SST in the central Pacific.
Context. Theoretical descriptions of convective overshooting in stellar interiors often rely on a basic one-dimensional parameterization of the flow called the filling factor for convection. Several different definitions of the filling factor have been developed for this purpose, based on: (1) the percentage of the volume, (2) the mass flux, and (3) the convective flux that moves through the boundary. Aims. We examine these definitions of the filling factor with the goal of establishing their ability to explain differences between 2D and 3D global simulations of stellar interiors that include fully compressible hydrodynamics and realistic microphysics for stars. Methods. We study convection and overshooting in pairs of identical two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) global simulations of stars produced with MUSIC , a fully compressible, time-implicit hydrodynamics code. We examine pairs of simulations for (1) a 3 M ⊙ red giant star near the first dredge-up point, (2) a 1 M ⊙ pre-main-sequence star with a large convection zone, (3) the current sun, and (4) a 20 M ⊙ main-sequence star with a large convective core. Results. Our calculations of the filling factor based on the volume percentage and the mass flux indicate asymmetrical convection near the surface for each star with an outer convection zone. However, near the convective boundary, convective flows achieve inward-outward symmetry for each star that we study; for 2D and 3D simulations, these filling factors are indistinguishable. A filling factor based on the convective flux is contaminated by boundary-layer-like flows, making a theoretical interpretation difficult. We present two possible new alternatives to these frequently used definitions of a filling factor, which instead compare flows at two different radial points. The first alternative is the penetration parameter of Anders et al. (2022, ApJ, 926, 169). The second alternative is a new statistic that we call the plume interaction parameter. We demonstrate that both of these parameters captures systematic differences between 2D and 3D simulations around the convective boundary.
Abstract This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg −1 ) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg −1 ) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.
Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.