Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Contingency planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Database Management Module Framework for Dynamic Contingency Analysis and Visualization

The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) is being developed to mimic the response of generation dynamics, protection, and load components to extreme contingencies in power systems. Currently, DCAT generates a huge data set, with the analysis results stored in multiple subfolders using a great many files in different formats (power flow cases, time series, figures, spreadsheets). To help power system engineers thoroughly understand and analyze system behavior under many scenarios and contingencies, we developed a database management module (DBM) that enables future integration of DCAT with industry-grade Big Data analytical and interactive visualization platforms. In this paper, we demonstrate the DBM framework with interactive analytics and visualization for DCAT on the synthetic South Carolina 500-bus power system model using hurricane contingencies that capture possibilities for an extreme contingency. DCAT’s advanced data management and interactive visualization can help planning engineers to visually explore and analyze system behavior, all in one view.

Cascading, dynamic simulations, database managemen↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Methodology for Evaluating Operator Usage of Machine Learning Recommendations for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

This work presents the application of a methodology to measure domain expert trust and workload, elicit feedback, and understand the technological usability and impact when a machine learning assistant is introduced into contingency analysis for real-time power grid simulation. The goal of this framework is to rapidly collect and analyze a broad variety of human factors data in order to accelerate the development and evaluation loop for deploying machine learning applications. We describe our methodology and analysis, and we discuss insights gained from a pilot participant about the current usability state of an early technology readiness level (TRL) artificial neural network (ANN) recommender.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Generic Advanced Computing Framework for Executing Windows-based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool in Parallel on Cluster Machines

Dynamic contingency analysis tool (DCAT) has been developed to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. By including more customized protection models and corrective actions into the Windows-based commercial tools, DCAT can help operators understand the cascading behavior and find mitigation approaches to reduce the risk of cascading outages in a more realistic manner. In order to further enhance the capability of DCAT, this paper presents a design of an advanced computing framework that enables DCAT to run on a cluster machine to improve its computational performance. This framework is generic and can be applied to other Windows-based simulation tools to fill the technical gap of applying advanced computing technology to vendors' Windows-based tools. The preliminary tests using medium to large power systems have shown the effectiveness of this framework and its potential for accelerating the adoption of advanced computing in utilities.

Advanced computing, dynamic contingency analysis, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effect of Power Electronic Loads on Western Interconnection Stability

The prevalence of power electronics in the bulk power system is increasing rapidly in both the generation and consumption of electricity. This work focuses on the effect of changing load composition - specifically the transition from single phase air conditioner motors to power electronics backed air conditioners - on power system stability. Various transmission and generation contingency events for the Western Interconnection were simulated using Positive Sequence Load Flow software and planning models from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. In general, an increased proportion of power electronic load leads to more instability. For some specific faults resulting in fault-induced delayed voltage recovery, transitioning to higher proportions of power electronic loads helps expedite system recovery. These results demonstrate that load composition should be examined in conjunction with generation composition when evaluating system stability.

FIDVR↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Iterative Approach for Solving the SCOPF Problem Applying LP, SOCP, and NLP Subproblems

We propose to develop efficient algorithms and software for the SCOPF problem. We will employ an iterative approach that will: a) use linear subproblems and other active set filtering techniques to identify the most important contingencies and drastically reduce the SCOPF model size; b) solve SOCP relaxations of the reduced SCOPF to converge to the neighborhood of the global optimal solution and establish a lower bound on the solution, and; c) use a non-convex, nonlinear interior-point solver, Artelys Knitro, to converge quickly to the optimal solution. To identify the most effective approach, we will experiment with several techniques to identify the tradeoffs between contingency subproblem complexity and fast solvability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Privacy for the Grid: Toward a Data Privacy Standard for Inverter-Based and Distributed Energy Resources

The traditional approach to planning the distribution grid has focused on reliability in the context of gradual and reasonably predictable load growth. Forecasts of load growth, combined with asset management practices, were used by system planners to identify upgrades to the system to maintain or improve reliability. The decisions, typically based within load flow analysis tools, included considerations about contingency scenarios and corporate forecasts (i.e., top-down predictions at a summary level of what would happen in a particular area that could impact load growth and behavior). As a result, today, this traditional approach no longer fits all purposes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

NTESS Retirement Income Plan Summary Plan Description

National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC (NTESS) is pleased to sponsor for your benefit the NTESS Retirement Income Plan (RIP or Pension Plan), formerly known as the Sandia Corporation Retirement Income Plan, which is designed to provide a source of continuing income during retirement for covered employees. This Summary Plan Description (SPD) explains how to determine if you will be eligible for a benefit from the Pension Plan when you retire or terminate your employment. Under certain circumstances, reduced pension benefits can be continued to your Spouse or a contingent annuitant, following your death. This SPD includes the provisions of the RIP as of January 1, 2020. The pension benefits described in this SPD apply to Eligible Employees (as defined in Questions 1 and 2) who experience a Termination of Employment (as defined in Appendix A) with NTESS or another Affiliated Company (as defined in Appendix A) on or after this date. More detailed information is contained in the NTESS Retirement Income Plan document, which governs the operation of this Pension Plan. In the event there is or appears to be any discrepancy between the terms of the RIP document and this SPD, the terms of the RIP document control.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Challenge of Achieving Site Closure of a Complex Groundwater Plume - 20531

Over the last three decades, DOE has made substantial progress in nearly every area of nuclear waste cleanup and has closed and transitioned 91 of the 107 sites in the EM complex. Several of the remaining groundwater plumes at Hanford, Los Alamos, Paducah, Oak Ridge, and Savannah River are complex and tend to have unique site or contaminant characteristics which provide an almost impossible challenge to remediate to regulatory levels. As a result, these complex sites will require a large investment to remediate. In order for DOE to achieve regulatory closure, a technically sound case must be developed and presented to regulators and stakeholders that clearly demonstrates that remedial goals have been or will be irreversibly achieved or that there is an alternate acceptable end-state. Five lines of evidence are required: - A conceptual site model that is as complete as possible, with the knowledge that it may continue to evolve with time; - Demonstration that trends in contaminant concentrations, or flux, versus time indicate that remedial goals will be achieved on schedule or within a reasonable time thereafter and that trends that deviate from this path are explainable by the conceptual model; - Demonstration that remobilization of attenuated contaminants is unlikely to occur in the future; - Explicit consideration of remedial contingencies, should deviations in the path toward remedial goals occur; - Development of an effective long-term monitoring plan to detect any conditions that might alter the path toward remedial goals. SRS has made significant progress in the remediation of contamination associated with the F-area and H-Area Seepage Basins, and it is currently developing a strategic closure path that addresses each of these lines of evidence and identifies both basic and applied scientific issues that will need to be addressed in order to obtain regulatory closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Energy Storage System and Smart Switch Placement in Dynamic Microgrids With Applications to Marine Energy Integration

Here this paper studies a dynamic microgrid (DMG) planning problem that places energy storage systems (ESSs) and smart switches (SSWs) optimally in the system. We apply the proposed methodology to applications concerning marine renewable energy (MRE). MRE is an emerging clean energy resource with enormous capacity but volatile and intermittent energy output profiles. Innovative grid-integration technologies designed to enhance the reliability of an MRE-integrated system are needed. However, there are still limited studies in this regard. Existing works have shown the promising prospect of using a dynamic microgrid (DMG) operational concept to accommodate renewable resources in distribution systems, but they usually assume fixed ESS and SSW installations. To further improve the operational flexibility of DMGs, we propose a DMG planning methodology that optimally places ESSs and SSWs so that a DMG with MRE is warranted with proper resource adequacy and topological flexibility in both the contingency and normal operations. We use realistic case studies based on a real-world distribution network and the U.S. Department of Energy's MRE dataset to verify the value and validity of the proposed work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Steady-State Stability Analysis for Transmission System Planning for Offshore Wind Power Plant Integration

This paper presents a statistical steady-state stability analysis for transmission system planning studies in order to identify operational issues inherent in the integration of offshore wind power plants. It includes normal and contingency operation. This study considers the integration of a 1000-MW offshore wind power plant into the FirstEnergy/PJM service territory in the U.S. Great Lakes region as a case study and uses a realistic computer model of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, a 63,000-bus test system. The results show the utility of this statistical analysis tool and its effectiveness in identification of the operational impacts as a result of the integration of offshore wind power plant.

Sajadi, Amirhossein↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bi-Level Adaptive Storage Expansion Strategy for Microgrids Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Battery energy storage (BES) is a versatile resource for the secure and economic operation of microgrids (MGs). Prevailing stochastic optimization-based approaches for BES expansion planning for MGs are computationally complicated. This work proposes a data-driven bi-level multi-period BES expansion planning framework to determine the siting, sizing, and timing of BES installations. The proposed planning framework unifies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) and linear programming, thereby decoupling the determinations for the integer and continuous decision variables in two time scales, respectively. In the upper level, a rainbow DRL agent with quantile regression is trained to provide dynamic planning policies to accommodate stochastic renewable energy resources (RESs), load, and battery price changes efficiently. Further, the lower level computes the optimal operation of MGs with frequency constraints to hedge the islanding contingency. The two levels communicate with one another by exchanging storage configuration and operating expenses in order to accomplish the shared goal of minimizing investment and operation costs. Comparative case studies on an MG are carried out to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed DRL-based solution to the mixed-integer linear programming counterpart on efficiency, scalability, and adaptability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Defense and Disaster Response Missions

Access to on-site electrical energy is critical to ensuring a successful military or humanitarian response to conflicts and disasters. These missions typically rely on access to liquid fuel that could be vulnerable to disruption or attack during transport. Generating power on location with wind technology—whether at a contingency base or disaster response coordination point—can reduce this risk and enhance mission reach by diversifying energy sources. Common characteristics of these missions are short planning and execution time horizons and a global scope of potential locations. Compared to conventional wind turbine applications, defense and disaster response applications place a premium on rapid shipping and installation, short-duration operation (days to months), and quick teardown upon mission completion. These design drivers depart from features found in conventional distributed wind turbines, thus necessitating unique design guidance. The supporting information for this guidance comes from available relevant references, technical analyses, and input from industry and military stakeholders. This paper serves as a summary of the full report, Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Military Operational Energy Applications (Sandia report SAND2021-14581 R [1]), which presents the best currently available design guidance for deployable wind turbines to facilitate the effective development and acquisition of technology solutions to support mission success.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗