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DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XV. Limits on large-scale polarized anomalous microwave emission from Planck LFI and WMAP

We constrained the level of polarized anomalous microwave emission (AME) on large angular scales using Planck Low-Frequency Instrument (LFI) and WMAP polarization data within a Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis framework. We modeled synchrotron emission with a power-law spectral energy distribution, as well as the sum of AME and thermal dust emission through linear regression with the Planck High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) 353 GHz data. This template-based dust emission model allowed us to constrain the level of polarized AME while making minimal assumptions on its frequency dependence. We neglected CMB fluctuations, but show through simulations that these fluctuations have a minor impact on the results. We find that the resulting AME polarization fraction confidence limit is sensitive to the polarized synchrotron spectral index prior. In addition, for prior means β s < -3.1 we find an upper limit of p AME max ≲ 0.6% (95% confidence). In contrast, for means β s = -3.0, we find a nominal detection of p AME = 2.5 ± 1.0% (95% confidence). These data are thus not strong enough to simultaneously and robustly constrain both polarized synchrotron emission and AME, and our main result is therefore a constraint on the AME polarization fraction explicitly as a function of β s . Combining the current Planck and WMAP observations with measurements from high-sensitivity low-frequency experiments such as C-BASS and QUIJOTE will be critical to improve these limits further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-14454-DND

FUN3D Core Capabilities - Established as a research code in late 1980’s; now supports numerous internal and external efforts across the speed range - Solves 2D/3D steady and unsteady Euler and RANS equations on node-based mixed element grids for compressible and incompressible flows - General dynamic mesh capability: any combination of rigid / overset / morphing grids, including 6-DOF effects - Aeroelastic modeling using mode shapes, full FEM, CC, etc. - Constrained / multipoint adjoint-based design and mesh adaptation - Distributed development team using agile/extreme software practices including 24/7 regression and performance testing - Capabilities fully integrated, online documentation, training videos, tutorials

Eric J Nielsen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA LaRC Contribution to the High Angle Working Group of the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop: BSCW Shock Buffet

FUN3D Core Capabilities - Established as a research code in late 1980s; now supports numerous internal and external efforts across the speed range - Solves 2D/3D steady and unsteady Euler and RANS equations on node-based mixed element grids for compressible and incompressible flows - General dynamic mesh capability: any combination of rigid / overset / morphing grids, including 6-DOF effects - Aeroelastic modeling using mode shapes, full FEM, etc. - Constrained / multipoint adjoint-based design and mesh adaptation - Distributed development team using agile/extreme software practices including 24/7 regression, performance testing - Capabilities fully integrated, online documentation, training videos, tutorials

Pawel Chwalowski↗

DOE OSTI2019

Allometric relationships for Quercus gambelii and Robinia neomexicana for biomass estimation following disturbance

Abstract In the southwestern USA, increases in size, frequency, and severity of wildfire are driving the conversion of forests to shrub‐dominated ecosystems. Increases in drought extent and severity, coupled with the way that shrub‐dominated systems are perpetuated by high‐severity fire, predisposes these post‐disturbance landscapes to remain in a non‐forest condition. Consequently, understanding the distribution of aboveground biomass in post‐disturbance, shrub‐dominated ecosystems is central to constraining the uncertainty surrounding how these ecosystems interact with light and water to sequester carbon. Here we present allometric regressions for Quercus gambelii (Gambel oak) and Robinia neomexicana (New Mexico locust), two species that dominate post‐fire landscapes in the southwestern USA. Our allometric regressions are designed to be driven by either field plot or high‐resolution remote sensing data, using either shrub area or shrub volume to estimate biomass.

Krofcheck, Dan J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Yang, Eun-Su↗

NASA NTRS2006

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-stratospheric Ozone

Yang, Eun-Su↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive spectra-to-exposure conversion using ridge regularized polynomial response models

Real-time gamma spectra-to-exposure conversion in aerial and ground monitoring commonly relies on calibration-derived, detector- or system-specific conversion coefficients that are assumed to generalize across operational environments. In practice, deployment specific differences in spectral composition and transport conditions can introduce systematic bias relative to reference instruments, motivating methods that adapt coefficients using minimal field supervision while explicitly limiting overfitting. In this work, we present a conservative coefficient adaptation framework that updates a baseline polynomial energy-weighting function using ridge-regularized regression, with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) used to select the regularization strength. The findings support ridge-constrained minimal-supervision adaptation as a practical mechanism to suppress site-specific bias without destabilizing a calibration-derived baseline.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for misspecified machine learned interatomic potentials

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of settings, which has brought renewed interest in robust means to quantify uncertainties. In many practical settings where model complexity is constrained (e.g., due to performance considerations), misspecification — the inability of any one choice of model parameters to exactly match all training data — is a key contributor to errors that is often disregarded. Here, we employ a recent misspecification-aware regression technique to quantify parameter uncertainties, which is then propagated to a broad range of phase and defect properties in tungsten. The propagation is performed through both brute-force resampling and implicit Taylor expansion. The propagated misspecification uncertainties robustly quantify and bound errors on a broad range of material properties. We demonstrate application to recent foundational machine learning interatomic potentials, accurately predicting and bounding errors in MACE-MPA-0 energy predictions across the diverse materials project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Gaussian process inference for neutron spin echo measurement

Neutron spin echo (NSE) spectroscopy provides unique access to microscopic dynamics, but its application is often constrained by low neutron flux, long acquisition times, and significant noise. Here, we present a Bayesian inference approach based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to reconstruct high-quality spin echo signals from sparse and noisy data by exploiting correlations in reciprocal space. Benchmarks on synthetic datasets and validation with experimental NSE measurements of dendrimers show that GPR suppresses noise, interpolates missing intensity values, and accommodates irregular observations. The method improves accuracy, shortens acquisition times, and enables high-throughput and real-time studies. Beyond NSE, the framework is broadly applicable to other low signal-to-noise ratio scattering techniques, thereby extending the scope of neutron spectroscopy.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

EXPRES. II. Searching for Planets around Active Stars: A Case Study of HD 101501

By controlling instrumental errors to below 10 cm s{sup −1}, the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) allows for a more insightful study of photospheric velocities that can mask weak Keplerian signals. Gaussian processes (GP) have become a standard tool for modeling correlated noise in radial velocity data sets. While GPs are constrained and motivated by physical properties of the star, in some cases they are still flexible enough to absorb unresolved Keplerian signals. We apply GP regression to EXPRES radial velocity measurements of the 3.5 Gyr old chromospherically active Sun-like star, HD 101501. We obtain tight constraints on the stellar rotation period and the evolution of spot distributions using 28 seasons of ground-based photometry, as well as recent Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data. Light-curve inversion was carried out on both photometry data sets to reveal the spot distribution and spot evolution timescales on the star. We find that the >5 m s{sup −1} rms radial velocity variations in HD 101501 are well modeled with a GP stellar activity model without planets, yielding a residual rms scatter of 45 cm s{sup −1}. We carry out simulations, injecting and recovering signals with the GP framework, to demonstrate that high-cadence observations are required to use GPs most efficiently to detect low-mass planets around active stars like HD 101501. Sparse sampling prevents GPs from learning the correlated noise structure and can allow it to absorb prospective Keplerian signals. We quantify the moderate to high-cadence monitoring that provides the necessary information to disentangle photospheric features using GPs and to detect planets around active stars.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2021

Global Intercomparison of hyper-resolution ECOSTRESS coastal sea surface temperature measurements from the Space Station with VIIRS-N20

The ECOSTRESS multi-channel thermal radiometer on the Space Station has an unprecedented spatial resolution of 70 m and a return time of hours to 5 days. It resolves details of oceanographic features not detectable in imagery from MODIS or VIIRS, and has open-ocean coverage, unlike Landsat. We calibrated two years of ECOSTRESS sea surface temperature observations with L2 data from VIIRS-N20 (2019–2020) worldwide but especially focused on important upwelling systems currently undergoing climate change forcing. Unlike operational SST products from VIIRS-N20, the ECOSTRESS surface temperature algorithm does not use a regression approach to determine temperature, but solves a set of simultaneous equations based on first principles for both surface temperature and emissivity. We compared ECOSTRESS ocean temperatures to well-calibrated clear sky satellite measurements from VIIRS-N20. Data comparisons were constrained to those within 90 min of one another using co-located clear sky VIIRS and ECOSTRESS pixels. ECOSTRESS ocean temperatures have a consistent 1.01 ◦C negative bias relative to VIIRS-N20, although deviation in brightness temperatures within the 10.49 and 12.01 µm bands were much smaller. As an alternative, we compared the performance of NOAA, NASA, and U.S. Navy operational split-window SST regression algorithms taking into consideration the statistical limitations imposed by intrinsic SST spatial autocorrelation and applying corrections on brightness temperatures. We conclude that standard bias-correction methods using already validated and well-known algorithms can be applied to ECOSTRESS SST data, yielding highly accurate products of ultra-high spatial resolution for studies of biological and physical oceanography in a time when these are needed to properly evaluate regional and even local impacts of climate change.

Nicolas Weidberg↗

DOE OSTI2025

SymbolNet: neural symbolic regression with adaptive dynamic pruning for compression

Abstract Compact symbolic expressions have been shown to be more efficient than neural network (NN) models in terms of resource consumption and inference speed when implemented on custom hardware such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), while maintaining comparable accuracy (Tsoi et al 2024 EPJ Web Conf. 295 09036). These capabilities are highly valuable in environments with stringent computational resource constraints, such as high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. However, finding compact expressions for high-dimensional datasets remains challenging due to the inherent limitations of genetic programming (GP), the search algorithm of most symbolic regression (SR) methods. Contrary to GP, the NN approach to SR offers scalability to high-dimensional inputs and leverages gradient methods for faster equation searching. Common ways of constraining expression complexity often involve multistage pruning with fine-tuning, which can result in significant performance loss. In this work, we propose S y m b o l N e t , a NN approach to SR specifically designed as a model compression technique, aimed at enabling low-latency inference for high-dimensional inputs on custom hardware such as FPGAs. This framework allows dynamic pruning of model weights, input features, and mathematical operators in a single training process, where both training loss and expression complexity are optimized simultaneously. We introduce a sparsity regularization term for each pruning type, which can adaptively adjust its strength, leading to convergence at a target sparsity ratio. Unlike most existing SR methods that struggle with datasets containing more than O ( 10 ) inputs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on the LHC jet tagging task (16 inputs), MNIST (784 inputs), and SVHN (3072 inputs).

Tsoi, Ho Fung (ORCID:0000000225502184)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing a robust strength model using physically-informed genetic programming

The strength of materials is influenced by a range of external conditions, such as temperature and deformation rate. Consequently, materials that demonstrate substantial variations in their mechanical behavior due to fluctuations in temperature and strain rate require complex strength models to accurately predict material performance in real-world applications. To predict such complex behavior, a robust and flexible strength model is necessary. In this work, we utilize genetic programming-based symbolic regression (GPSR) to develop data-driven strength models that accurately represent the measured stress–strain responses of tin across a wide range of strain, strain rate and temperature regimes. The GPSR models are constrained by physically-informed conditions, which leads to significant improvement in extrapolation. The best model is integrated into a multi-physics code to perform Taylor impact simulations, validating the model’s accuracy and robustness. In conclusion, the model predictions showed excellent agreement with experimental results, particularly when compared to predictions using traditional strength models.

Genetic programming↗

DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating mass-absorption cross-section of ambient black carbon aerosols: theoretical, empirical, and machine learning models

The mass-absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) is an essential parameter to link the atmospheric concentration of black carbon (BC) with its radiative forcing. When a direct calculation of MAC BC based on observations of aerosol light absorption and BC mass concentration is impossible, we rely on modeling and simulations to estimate MAC BC , but currently, there is no consensus model that can be relied on for accurate predictions across all atmospheric environments when BC particles have different coating thicknesses. Here, we applied five MAC BC prediction models (including three light scattering theories, an empirical model based on observations of particle mass concentrations, and a machine learning model developed in our previous work) to aerosols from three Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns. While many studies have found that increasing the complexity of the models helps to constrain biases of the estimated MAC BC , our effort is to evaluate the models based on the criteria of simplicity and accuracy. We find that our machine learning model (support vector machine for regression, SVM) generally performs well across all DOE ARM field campaign data, while the accuracy of core-shell Mie theory depends on the bias correction algorithm applied to filter-based light absorption data. Generally, the empirical model for internally-mixed particles that we considered tends to over-predict MAC BC , while Mie theory for externally-mixed particles tends to under-predict MAC BC . An examination of the influence of coating material on BC cores suggests that the performance of our current SVM model is degraded when the BC is thickly-coated (e.g., it has undergone aging and mixing with other materials in the atmosphere).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗