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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Polymers for Extreme Conditions Designed Using Syntax-Directed Variational Autoencoders

We report the design/discovery of new materials is highly nontrivial owing to the near-infinite possibilities of material candidates and multiple required property/performance objectives. Thus, machine learning tools are now commonly employed to virtually screen material candidates with desired properties by learning a theoretical mapping from material-to-property space, referred to as the forward problem. However, this approach is inefficient and severely constrained by the candidates that the human imagination can conceive. Thus, in this work on polymers, we tackle the materials discovery challenge by solving the inverse problem: directly generating candidates that satisfy desired property/performance objectives. We utilize syntax-directed variational autoencoders (VAE) in tandem with Gaussian process regression (GPR) models to discover polymers expected to be robust under three extreme conditions: (1) high temperatures, (2) high electric field, and (3) high temperature and high electric field, useful for critical structural, electrical, and energy storage applications. This approach to learn from and augment) human ingenuity is general and can be extended to discover polymers with other targeted properties and performance measures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learned adaptive properties for mitigation of weight perturbations in embedded spiking networks

Recent years have seen an increased importance of neural network inference in edge-based scenarios, which impose size and power constraints requiring novel computing devices. These same edge scenarios may require operating over long periods of time, or exposure to extreme environments, resulting in a drift of neural network weights that cause degraded performance. In searching for ways to develop neural network approaches that perform robustly under these conditions, we propose a biologically-inspired mechanism for the dynamic adaptation of within-neuron parameters that is guided by a global context signal carrying information about perturbations and variability in incoming stimuli. Specifically, we demonstrate that adaptive voltage thresholds or neuronal time constants, when informed by a global context signal, can enable network-level mechanisms to recover from perturbed synaptic weights. Consistent with prior literature, the context-modulated approach is effective for recurrent, but not feedforward networks, by modulating network level dynamics. We demonstrate this approach successfully recovers performance in image classification tasks and spatiotemporal tracking tasks under idealized and Gaussian noise as well as for realistic perturbations from a memristive device when exposed to ionizing radiation. Finally, we discuss how this approach enables the design of robust and energy-efficient neuromorphic systems that perform well, even in resource-constrained scenarios with extreme environments such as edge processing.

context modulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wavelength Dependence of Activity-induced Photometric Variations for Young Cool Stars in Hyades

We investigate photometric variations due to stellar activity that induce systematic radial-velocity errors (so-called “jitter”) for the four targets in the Hyades open cluster observed by the K2 mission (EPIC 210721261, EPIC 210923016, EPIC 247122957, and EPIC 247783757). Applying Gaussian process regressions to the K2 light curves and the near-infrared (NIR) light curves observed with the IRSF 1.4 m telescope, we derive the wavelength dependences of the photometric signals due to stellar activity. To estimate the temporal variations in the photometric variability amplitudes between the two observation periods of K2 and IRSF, separated by more than 2 yr, we analyze a number of K2 targets in Hyades that have also been observed in Campaigns 4 and 13 and find a representative variation rate over 2 yr of 38% ± 71%. Taking this temporal variation into account, we constrain projected sizes and temperature contrast properties of the starspots in the stellar photosphere to be approximately 10% and 0.95%, respectively. These starspot properties can induce relatively large differences in the variability amplitude over different observational passbands, and we find that radial-velocity jitter may be more suppressed in the NIR than previously expected. Our result supports profits of ongoing exoplanet search projects that are attempting to detect or confirm young planets in open clusters via radial-velocity measurements in the NIR.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

CAFE AU LAIT: Compute-Aware Federated Augmented Low-Rank AI Training

Federated finetuning is crucial for unlocking the knowledge embedded in pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) when data are geographically distributed across clients. Unlike finetuning with data from a single institution, federated finetuning allows collaboration across multiple institutions, enabling the utilization of diverse and decentralized datasets while preserving data privacy. Given the high computing costs of LLM training and the emphasis on energy efficiency in Federated Learning (FL), Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as a widely adopted algorithm due to its significantly reduced number of trainable parameters. However, this assumes that all data silos have the necessary computing resources to compute local updates of LLMs. Nevertheless, in practice, the computing resources across clients are highly heterogeneous: while some may have access to hundreds of GPUs, others might have limited or no GPU access. Recently, federated finetuning using synthetic data has been proposed, allowing clients to participate in a collaborative training run without training LLMs locally. However, our experimental results reveal a performance gap between models trained using synthetic data and those trained using local updates. Motivated by the observed heterogeneity in computing resources and the performance gap, we propose a novel two-stage algorithm that leverages the storage and computing capabilities of a strong server. In the first stage, under the coordination of the strong server, clients with limited computing resources collaborate to generate synthetic data, which is transferred to and stored on the strong server. In the second stage, the strong server uses this synthetic data on behalf of the resource-constrained clients to perform federated LoRA finetuning alongside clients with sufficient computing resources. This approach ensures that all clients can participate in the finetuning process. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating local updates from even a small fraction of clients improves performance compared to using synthetic data for all clients. Furthermore, we incorporate the Gaussian mechanism in both stages to guarantee client-level differential privacy.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical evolution of local post-starburst galaxies: implications for the mass–metallicity relation

ABSTRACT We use the stellar fossil record to constrain the stellar metallicity evolution and star-formation histories of the post-starburst (PSB) regions within 45 local PSB galaxies from the MaNGA survey. The direct measurement of the regions’ stellar metallicity evolution is achieved by a new two-step metallicity model that allows for stellar metallicity to change at the peak of the starburst. We also employ a Gaussian process noise model that accounts for correlated errors introduced by the observational data reduction or inaccuracies in the models. We find that a majority of PSB regions (69 per cent at >1σ significance) increased in stellar metallicity during the recent starburst, with an average increase of 0.8 dex and a standard deviation of 0.4 dex. A much smaller fraction of PSBs are found to have remained constant (22 per cent) or declined in metallicity (9 per cent, average decrease 0.4 dex, standard deviation 0.3 dex). The pre-burst metallicities of the PSB galaxies are in good agreement with the mass–metallicity (MZ) relation of local star-forming galaxies. These results are consistent with hydrodynamic simulations, which suggest that mergers between gas-rich galaxies are the primary formation mechanism of local PSBs, and rapid metal recycling during the starburst outweighs the impact of dilution by any gas inflows. The final mass-weighted metallicities of the PSB galaxies are consistent with the MZ relation of local passive galaxies. Our results suggest that rapid quenching following a merger-driven starburst is entirely consistent with the observed gap between the stellar mass–metallicity relations of local star-forming and passive galaxies.

Leung, Ho-Hin (ORCID:0000000304865178)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian-process generative model for the QCD equation of state

We develop a generative model for the nuclear matter equation of state at zero net baryon density using the Gaussian process regression method. We impose first-principles theoretical constraints from lattice quantum chromodynamics and hadron resonance gas at high- and low-temperature regions, respectively. By allowing the trained Gaussian process regression model to vary freely near the phase transition region, we generate random smooth crossover equations of state with different speeds of sound that do not rely on specific parametrizations. Here, we explore a collection of experimental observable dependencies on the generated equations of state, which paves the groundwork for future Bayesian inference studies to use experimental measurements from relativistic heavy-ion collisions to constrain the nuclear matter equation of state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sparse regression for plasma physics

Many scientific problems can be formulated as sparse regression, i.e., regression onto a set of parameters when there is a desire or expectation that some of the parameters are exactly zero or do not substantially contribute. This includes many problems in signal and image processing, system identification, optimization, and parameter estimation methods such as Gaussian process regression. Sparsity facilitates exploring high-dimensional spaces while finding parsimonious and interpretable solutions. In the present work, we illustrate some of the important ways in which sparse regression appears in plasma physics and point out recent contributions and remaining challenges to solving these problems in this field. Further, a brief review is provided for the optimization problem and the state-of-the-art solvers, especially for constrained and high-dimensional sparse regression.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of Compact Pulsed Thermal Imaging System for In-Service Applications. Pulsed thermal tomography nondestructive examination of additively manufactured reactor materials and components

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex topology nuclear reactor parts from high-strength corrosion resistance alloys, such as stainless steel and Inconel. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which has the capability of melting metallic powder and net shaping the structures with relatively high precision. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to creep in high temperature nuclear reactor environment. Currently, there exist limited capabilities to evaluate actual AM structures nondestructively. Pulsed Thermography (PT) imaging provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. The data cube of PT measurements consists of surface temperature taken at sequential time intervals T(x,y,t). Material defects can be detected either by analyzing the thermograms T(x,y,t) data cube, or by using thermal tomography (TT) algorithm to obtain 3D spatial reconstruction of thermal effusivity e(x,y,z). To reduce the cost and enable in-service NDE in spatially constrained environment, it is highly desirable to develop PT with compact and inexpensive IR camera. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a compact PT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. However, data cube obtained with PT based on compact IR camera suffers from strong thermal noises and loss of features due to relatively low sampling rate. In this report we describe two unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for enhancement of PT images obtained with compact IR camera. In one approach, we introduce Sparse Coding Discrete Cosine Transform (SC/DCT) algorithm to remove additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) from spatial thermal effusivity reconstructions. In another approach we introduce a Spatial Temporal Denoised Thermal Source Separation (STDTSS) ML algorithm to process thermograms. The STDTSS algorithm consists of spatial and temporal denoising using Gaussian and Savitzky–Golay filtering, followed by the matrix decomposition using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to automatically detect flaws. In the work described in this report, we constructed a compact PT system using a relatively small and low-cost FLIR A65 camera, consisting on uncooled microbolometer detector. Performance of SC/DCT algorithm was demonstrated on enhancing TT images of Inconel 718 AM plate. Performance of the STDTSS methods was investigated using thermography data obtained from imaging stainless steel 316L specimens produced with LPBF method with imprinted calibrated porosity defects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

srMO-BO-3GP: A sequential regularized multi-objective Bayesian optimization for constrained design applications using an uncertain Pareto classifier

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient and flexible global optimization framework that is applicable to a very wide range of engineering applications. To leverage the capability of the classical BO, many extensions, including multi-objective, multi-fidelity, parallelization, and latent-variable modeling, have been proposed to address the limitations of the classical BO framework. In this work, we propose a novel multi-objective BO formalism, called srMO-BO-3GP, to solve multi-objective optimization problems in a sequential setting. Three different Gaussian processes (GPs) are stacked together, where each of the GPs is assigned with a different task. The first GP is used to approximate a single-objective computed from the multi-objective definition, the second GP is used to learn the unknown constraints, and the third one is used to learn the uncertain Pareto frontier. At each iteration, a multi-objective augmented Tchebycheff function is adopted to convert multi-objective to single-objective, where the regularization with a regularized ridge term is also introduced to smooth the single-objective function. Finally, we couple the third GP along with the classical BO framework to explore the convergence and diversity of the Pareto frontier by the acquisition function for exploitation and exploration. The proposed framework is demonstrated using several numerical benchmark functions, as well as a thermomechanical finite element model for flip-chip package design optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiple emission components in the Cygnus cocoon detected from Fermi -LAT observations

Star-forming regions may play an important role in the life cycle of Galactic cosmic rays (CRs), notably as home to specific acceleration mechanisms and transport conditions. Gamma-ray observations of Cygnus X have revealed the presence of an excess of hard-spectrum gamma-ray emission, possibly related to a cocoon of freshly accelerated particles. We seek an improved description of the gamma-ray emission from the cocoon using ~13 yr of observations with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) and use it to further constrain the processes and objects responsible for the young CR population. We developed an emission model for a large region of interest, including a description of interstellar emission from the background population of CRs and recent models for other gamma-ray sources in the field. Thus, we performed an improved spectro-morphological characterisation of the residual emission including the cocoon. The best-fit model for the cocoon includes two main emission components: an extended component FCES G78.74+1.56, described by a 2D Gaussian of extension r 68 = 4.4° ± 0.1° -0.1° +0.1° and a smooth broken power law spectrum with spectral indices 1.67 ± 0.05 -0.01 +0.02 and 2.12 ± 0.02 -0.01 +0.00 below and above 3.0 ± 0.6 -0.2 +0.0 GeV, respectively; and a central component FCES G80.00+0.50, traced by the distribution of ionised gas within the borders of the photo-dissociation regions and with a power law spectrum of index 2.19 ± 0.03 -0.01 +0.00 that is significantly different from the spectrum of FCES G78.74+1.56. An additional extended emission component FCES G78.83+3.57, located on the edge of the central cavities in Cygnus X and with a spectrum compatible with that of FCES G80.00+0.50, is likely related to the cocoon. For the two brightest components FCES G80.00+0.50 and FCES G78.74+1.56, spectra and radial-azimuthal profiles of the emission can be accounted for in a diffusion-loss framework involving one single population of non-thermal particles with a flat injection spectrum. Particles span the full extent of FCES G78.74+1.56 as a result of diffusion from a central source, and give rise to source FCES G80.00+0.50 by interacting with ionised gas in the innermost region. For this simple diffusion-loss model, viable setups can be very different in terms of energetics, transport conditions, and timescales involved, and both hadronic and leptonic scenarios are possible. The solutions range from long-lasting particle acceleration, possibly in prominent star clusters such as Cyg OB2 and NGC 6910, to a more recent and short-lived release of particles within the last 10–100 kyr, likely from a supernova remnant. The observables extracted from our analysis can be used to perform detailed comparisons with advanced models of particle acceleration and transport in star-forming regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmology with peaks using an emulator approach

ABSTRACT We constrain the matter density Ωm and the amplitude of density fluctuations σ8 within the ΛCDM cosmological model with shear peak statistics and angular convergence power spectra using mass maps constructed from the first three years of data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We use tomographic shear peak statistics, including cross-peaks: peak counts calculated on maps created by taking a harmonic space product of the convergence of two tomographic redshift bins. Our analysis follows a forward-modelling scheme to create a likelihood of these statistics using N-body simulations, using a Gaussian process emulator. We take into account the uncertainty from the remaining, largely unconstrained ΛCDM parameters (Ωb, ns, and h). We include the following lensing systematics: multiplicative shear bias, photometric redshift uncertainty, and galaxy intrinsic alignment. Stringent scale cuts are applied to avoid biases from unmodelled baryonic physics. We find that the additional non-Gaussian information leads to a tightening of the constraints on the structure growth parameter yielding $S_8~\equiv ~\sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}~=~0.797_{-0.013}^{+0.015}$ (68 per cent confidence limits), with a precision of 1.8 per cent, an improvement of 38 per cent compared to the angular power spectra only case. The results obtained with the angular power spectra and peak counts are found to be in agreement with each other and no significant difference in S8 is recorded. We find a mild tension of $1.5 \, \sigma$ between our study and the results from Planck 2018, with our analysis yielding a lower S8. Furthermore, we observe that the combination of angular power spectra and tomographic peak counts breaks the degeneracy between galaxy intrinsic alignment AIA and S8, improving cosmological constraints. We run a suite of tests concluding that our results are robust and consistent with the results from other studies using DES Y3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning inversion from scattering for mechanically driven polymers

A machine learning inversion method is developed for analyzing scattering functions of mechanically driven polymers and extracting the corresponding feature parameters, which include energy parameters and conformation variables. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds constrained by bending energy, and it is subject to external forces such as stretching and shear. We generate a data set consisting of random combinations of energy parameters, including bending modulus, stretching and shear force, along with Monte Carlo-calculated scattering functions and conformation variables such as end-to-end distance, radius of gyration and off-diagonal component of the gyration tensor. The effects of the energy parameters on the polymer are captured by the scattering function, and principal component analysis ensures the feasibility of the machine learning inversion. Finally, we train a Gaussian process regressor using part of the data set as a training set and validate the trained regressor for inversion using the rest of the data. The regressor successfully extracts the feature parameters.

Gaussian process regressors↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Nonlocal-Gradient Descent Method for Inverse Design in Nanophotonics

Local-gradient-based optimization approaches lack nonlocal exploration abilityrequired for escaping from local minima when searching non-convex landscapes.A directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) approach was recently proposed in [29]and used to define a truly nonlocal gradient, referred to as the DGS gradient, inorder to enable nonlocal exploration in high-dimensional black-box optimization.Promising results show that replacing the traditional local gradient with the nonlocalDGS gradient can significantly improve the performance of gradient-based methodsin optimizing highly multi-modal loss functions. However, the current DGS methodis designed for unbounded and uncontrained optimization problems, making itinapplicable to real-world engineering optimization problems where the tuningparameters are often bounded and the loss function is usually constrained byphysical processes. In this work, we propose to extend to the DGS approachto the constrained inverse design framework in order to find better optima ofmulti-modal loss functions. A series of adaptive strategies for smoothing radiusand learning rate updating are developed to improve the computational efficiencyand robustness. Our methodology is demonstrated by an example of designing ananoscale wavelength demultiplexer, and shows superior performance compared tothe state-of-the-art approaches. By incorporating volume constraints, the optimizeddesign achieves an equivalently high performance but significantly reduces theamount of material usage.

Bi, Sirui↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗