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DOE OSTI2024

Primordial non-Gaussianities with weak lensing: information on non-linear scales in the Ulagam full-sky simulations

Abstract Primordial non-Gaussianities (PNGs) are signatures in the density field that encode particle physics processes from the inflationary epoch. Such signatures have been extensively studied using the Cosmic Microwave Background, through constraining their amplitudes,f X NL , with future improvements expected from large-scale structure surveys; specifically, the galaxy correlation functions. We show that weak lensing fields can be used to achieve competitive and complementary constraints. This is shown via theUlagamsuite of N-body simulations, a subset of which evolves primordial fields with four types of PNGs. We create full-sky lensing maps and estimate the Fisher information from three summary statistics measured on the maps: the moments, the cumulative distribution function, and the 3-point correlation function. We find that the year 10 sample from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) can constrain PNGs toσ(f NL eq ) ≈ 110,σ(f NL or, lss ) ≈ 120,σ(f NL loc ) ≈ 40. For the former two, this is better than or comparable to expected galaxy clustering-based constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The PNG information in lensing fields is on non-linear scales and at low redshifts (z≲ 1.25), with a clear origin in the evolution history of massive halos. The constraining power degrades by ∼60% under scale cuts of ≳ 20 Mpc, showing there is still significant information on scales mostly insensitive to small-scale systematic effects (e.g., baryons). We publicly release theUlagamsuite to enable more survey-focused analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applications of emulation and Bayesian methods in heavy-ion physics

Abstract Heavy-ion collisions provide a window into the properties of many-body systems of deconfined quarks and gluons. Understanding the collective properties of quarks and gluons is possible by comparing models of heavy-ion collisions to measurements of the distribution of particles produced at the end of the collisions. These model-to-data comparisons are extremely challenging, however, because of the complexity of the models, the large amount of experimental data, and their uncertainties. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous statistical framework to constrain the properties of nuclear matter by systematically comparing models and measurements. This review covers model emulation and Bayesian methods as applied to model-to-data comparisons in heavy-ion collisions. Replacing the model outputs (observables) with Gaussian process emulators is key to the Bayesian approach currently used in the field, and both current uses of emulators and related recent developments are reviewed. The general principles of Bayesian inference are then discussed along with other Bayesian methods, followed by a systematic comparison of seven recent Bayesian analyses that studied quark-gluon plasma properties, such as the shear and bulk viscosities. The latter comparison is used to illustrate sources of differences in analyses, and what it can teach us for future studies.

Paquet, Jean-François (ORCID:0000000187368171)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

The cool-star spectral catalog: A uniform collection of IUE SWP-LOs

Over the past decade and a half of its operations, the International Ultraviolet Explorer has recorded low-dispersion spectrograms in the 1150-2000 A interval of more than 800 stars of late spectral type (F-M). The sub-2000 A region contains a number of emission lines that are key diagnostics of physical conditions in the high-excitation chromospheres and subcoronal 'transition zones' of such stars. Many of the sources have been observed a number of times, and the available collection of SWP-LO exposures in the IUE Archives exceeds 4,000. With support from the Astrophysics Data Program, we have assembled the archival material into a catalog of IUE far-UV fluxes of late-type stars. In order to ensure uniform processing of the spectra, we: (1) photometrically corrected the raw vidicon images with a custom version of the 1985 SWP ITF; (2) identified and eliminated, sharp cosmic-ray 'hits' by means of a spatial filter; (3) extracted the spectral traces with the 'optimal' (weighted-slit) strategy; and (4) calibrated them against a well-characterized reference source, the DA white dwarf G191-B2B. Our approach is similar to that adopted by the IUE Project for its 'Final Archive', but our implementation is specialized to the case of chromospheric emission-line sources. We measured the resulting SWP-LO spectra using a semi-autonomous algorithm that establishes a smooth continuum by numerical filtering, and then fits the significant emissions (or absorptions) by means of a constrained Bevington-type multiple-Gaussian procedure. The algorithm assigns errors to the fitted fluxes - or upper limits in the absence of a significant detection - according to a model based on careful measurements of the noise properties of the IUE's intensified SEC cameras. Here, we describe the 'visualization' strategies we adopted to ensure human-review of the semi-autonomous processing and measuring algorithms; the derivation of the noise model and the assignment of errors; and the structure of the final catalog as delivered to the Astrophysics Data System.

Ayres, T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Mass Estimates of the β Pictoris Planetary System through Gaussian Process Stellar Activity Modeling

Nearly 15 yr of radial velocity (RV) monitoring and direct imaging enabled the detection of two giant planets orbiting the young, nearby star β Pictoris. The δ Scuti pulsations of the star, which overwhelm planetary signals, need to be carefully suppressed. In this work, we independently revisit the analysis of the RV data following a different approach than available in the literature to model the activity of the star. We show that a Gaussian process (GP) with a stochastically driven damped harmonic oscillator kernel can model the δ Scuti pulsations. It provides similar results to parametric models but with a simpler framework, using only three hyperparameters. It also enables us to model poorly sampled RV data that were excluded from previous analyses, hence extending the RV baseline by nearly five years. Altogether, the orbit and mass of both planets can be constrained from RV only, which was not possible with the parametric modeling. To characterize the system more accurately, we also perform a joint fit of all available relative astrometry and RV data. Our orbital solutions for β Pic b favor a low eccentricity of 0.029$_{−0.024}^{+0.061}$ and a relatively short period of 21.1$_{−0.8}^{+2.0}$ yr. The orbit of β Pic c is eccentric with 0.206$_{−0.063}^{+0.074}$ with a period of 3.36 ± 0.03 yr. We find model-independent masses of 11.7 ± 1.4 and 8.5 ± 0.5 M Jup for β Pic b and c, respectively, assuming coplanarity. The mass of β Pic b is consistent with the hottest start evolutionary models, at an age of 25 ± 3 Myr. A direct detection of β Pic c would provide a second calibration measurement in a coeval system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Polymers for Extreme Conditions Designed Using Syntax-Directed Variational Autoencoders

We report the design/discovery of new materials is highly nontrivial owing to the near-infinite possibilities of material candidates and multiple required property/performance objectives. Thus, machine learning tools are now commonly employed to virtually screen material candidates with desired properties by learning a theoretical mapping from material-to-property space, referred to as the forward problem. However, this approach is inefficient and severely constrained by the candidates that the human imagination can conceive. Thus, in this work on polymers, we tackle the materials discovery challenge by solving the inverse problem: directly generating candidates that satisfy desired property/performance objectives. We utilize syntax-directed variational autoencoders (VAE) in tandem with Gaussian process regression (GPR) models to discover polymers expected to be robust under three extreme conditions: (1) high temperatures, (2) high electric field, and (3) high temperature and high electric field, useful for critical structural, electrical, and energy storage applications. This approach to learn from and augment) human ingenuity is general and can be extended to discover polymers with other targeted properties and performance measures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learned adaptive properties for mitigation of weight perturbations in embedded spiking networks

Recent years have seen an increased importance of neural network inference in edge-based scenarios, which impose size and power constraints requiring novel computing devices. These same edge scenarios may require operating over long periods of time, or exposure to extreme environments, resulting in a drift of neural network weights that cause degraded performance. In searching for ways to develop neural network approaches that perform robustly under these conditions, we propose a biologically-inspired mechanism for the dynamic adaptation of within-neuron parameters that is guided by a global context signal carrying information about perturbations and variability in incoming stimuli. Specifically, we demonstrate that adaptive voltage thresholds or neuronal time constants, when informed by a global context signal, can enable network-level mechanisms to recover from perturbed synaptic weights. Consistent with prior literature, the context-modulated approach is effective for recurrent, but not feedforward networks, by modulating network level dynamics. We demonstrate this approach successfully recovers performance in image classification tasks and spatiotemporal tracking tasks under idealized and Gaussian noise as well as for realistic perturbations from a memristive device when exposed to ionizing radiation. Finally, we discuss how this approach enables the design of robust and energy-efficient neuromorphic systems that perform well, even in resource-constrained scenarios with extreme environments such as edge processing.

context modulation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wavelength Dependence of Activity-induced Photometric Variations for Young Cool Stars in Hyades

We investigate photometric variations due to stellar activity that induce systematic radial-velocity errors (so-called “jitter”) for the four targets in the Hyades open cluster observed by the K2 mission (EPIC 210721261, EPIC 210923016, EPIC 247122957, and EPIC 247783757). Applying Gaussian process regressions to the K2 light curves and the near-infrared (NIR) light curves observed with the IRSF 1.4 m telescope, we derive the wavelength dependences of the photometric signals due to stellar activity. To estimate the temporal variations in the photometric variability amplitudes between the two observation periods of K2 and IRSF, separated by more than 2 yr, we analyze a number of K2 targets in Hyades that have also been observed in Campaigns 4 and 13 and find a representative variation rate over 2 yr of 38% ± 71%. Taking this temporal variation into account, we constrain projected sizes and temperature contrast properties of the starspots in the stellar photosphere to be approximately 10% and 0.95%, respectively. These starspot properties can induce relatively large differences in the variability amplitude over different observational passbands, and we find that radial-velocity jitter may be more suppressed in the NIR than previously expected. Our result supports profits of ongoing exoplanet search projects that are attempting to detect or confirm young planets in open clusters via radial-velocity measurements in the NIR.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

CAFE AU LAIT: Compute-Aware Federated Augmented Low-Rank AI Training

Federated finetuning is crucial for unlocking the knowledge embedded in pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) when data are geographically distributed across clients. Unlike finetuning with data from a single institution, federated finetuning allows collaboration across multiple institutions, enabling the utilization of diverse and decentralized datasets while preserving data privacy. Given the high computing costs of LLM training and the emphasis on energy efficiency in Federated Learning (FL), Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as a widely adopted algorithm due to its significantly reduced number of trainable parameters. However, this assumes that all data silos have the necessary computing resources to compute local updates of LLMs. Nevertheless, in practice, the computing resources across clients are highly heterogeneous: while some may have access to hundreds of GPUs, others might have limited or no GPU access. Recently, federated finetuning using synthetic data has been proposed, allowing clients to participate in a collaborative training run without training LLMs locally. However, our experimental results reveal a performance gap between models trained using synthetic data and those trained using local updates. Motivated by the observed heterogeneity in computing resources and the performance gap, we propose a novel two-stage algorithm that leverages the storage and computing capabilities of a strong server. In the first stage, under the coordination of the strong server, clients with limited computing resources collaborate to generate synthetic data, which is transferred to and stored on the strong server. In the second stage, the strong server uses this synthetic data on behalf of the resource-constrained clients to perform federated LoRA finetuning alongside clients with sufficient computing resources. This approach ensures that all clients can participate in the finetuning process. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating local updates from even a small fraction of clients improves performance compared to using synthetic data for all clients. Furthermore, we incorporate the Gaussian mechanism in both stages to guarantee client-level differential privacy.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1986

Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5Ma

A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.

Constable, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5 m.y

Constable, C. G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical evolution of local post-starburst galaxies: implications for the mass–metallicity relation

ABSTRACT We use the stellar fossil record to constrain the stellar metallicity evolution and star-formation histories of the post-starburst (PSB) regions within 45 local PSB galaxies from the MaNGA survey. The direct measurement of the regions’ stellar metallicity evolution is achieved by a new two-step metallicity model that allows for stellar metallicity to change at the peak of the starburst. We also employ a Gaussian process noise model that accounts for correlated errors introduced by the observational data reduction or inaccuracies in the models. We find that a majority of PSB regions (69 per cent at >1σ significance) increased in stellar metallicity during the recent starburst, with an average increase of 0.8 dex and a standard deviation of 0.4 dex. A much smaller fraction of PSBs are found to have remained constant (22 per cent) or declined in metallicity (9 per cent, average decrease 0.4 dex, standard deviation 0.3 dex). The pre-burst metallicities of the PSB galaxies are in good agreement with the mass–metallicity (MZ) relation of local star-forming galaxies. These results are consistent with hydrodynamic simulations, which suggest that mergers between gas-rich galaxies are the primary formation mechanism of local PSBs, and rapid metal recycling during the starburst outweighs the impact of dilution by any gas inflows. The final mass-weighted metallicities of the PSB galaxies are consistent with the MZ relation of local passive galaxies. Our results suggest that rapid quenching following a merger-driven starburst is entirely consistent with the observed gap between the stellar mass–metallicity relations of local star-forming and passive galaxies.

Leung, Ho-Hin (ORCID:0000000304865178)↗