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At least 55 records · Page 3

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth in the Sahel region in relation to vegetation remote sensing

In order to monitor the aerosol characteristics needed for atmospheric correction of remotely sensed data, a network of sun photometers was established in the Sahel region of Senegal, Mali, and Niger. Data analysis suggests that there is a high spatial variability of the aerosol optical thickness tau(a) in the western Sahel region. At a 67 percent confidence level the instantaneous values of tau(a) can be extrapolated approximately 270-400 km with an error tolerance of 50 percent. Spatial variability in the dry season is found to be of a similar magnitude. The ranges of variations in the NDVI in the Sahel region are shown to be approximately 0.02 and 0.01, respectively, due to commonly observed fluctuations in the aerosol optical thickness and aerosol size distribution.

Holben, B. N.↗

A 21-Year Record of Arctic Sea Ice Extents and Their Regional, Seasonal, and Monthly Variability and Trends

Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate sea ice extents over the period 1979-1999 for the north polar sea ice cover as a whole and for each of nine regions. Over this 21-year time period, the trend in yearly average ice extents for the ice cover as a whole is -32,900 +/- 6,100 sq km/yr (-2.7 +/- 0.5 %/decade), indicating a reduction in sea ice coverage that has decelerated from the earlier reported value of -34,000 +/- 8,300 sq km/yr (-2.8 +/- 0.7 %/decade) for the period 1979-1996. Regionally, the reductions are greatest in the Arctic Ocean, the Kara and Barents Seas, and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, whereas seasonally, the reductions are greatest in summer, for which season the 1979-1999 trend in ice extents is -41,600 +/- 12,900 sq km/ yr (-4.9 +/- 1.5 %/decade). On a monthly basis, the reductions are greatest in July and September for the north polar ice cover as a whole, in September for the Arctic Ocean, in June and July for the Kara and Barents Seas, and in April for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan. Only two of the nine regions show overall ice extent increases, those being the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.For neither of these two regions is the increase statistically significant, whereas the 1079 - 1999 ice extent decreases are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level for the north polar region as a whole, the Arctic Ocean, the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, and Hudson Bay.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Radio measurements in the fields of gamma-ray sources. III - The star formation region Rho-Ophiuchi

The star-forming region Rho-Ophiuchi, which has been detected as a COS-B gamma-ray source, 2CG 353+16, is observed in the radio continuum at wavelengths between 1.3 cm and 21 cm. Various known and new radio sources are identified. Time variability on scales of weeks to years for two sources can be assessed with high confidence levels. The H II region origin for Oph 1, Oph 6, Oph 9 and Oph 10 is ruled out. Five new radio sources are proposed as H II region candidates on the basis of their flat frequency spectrum.

Schlickeiser, R.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Design of control systems with uncertain parameters

A design method for control systems with uncertain parameters is presented. The method utilizes a generalized sensitivity approach which separates the parameter space into regions which produce a system response that satisfies given design criteria and regions which do not. Nonparametric statistics and confidence limits for the binomial distribution are used to determine degree of parameter sensitivity and to locate regions in the parameter space which maximize the probability of producing a desirable system response. In an example it is shown that a given parameter may have to be known to a lesser degree of uncertainty to be able to specify a satisfactory design.

Auslander, D. M.↗

A simulation-based approach to the design of control systems with uncertain parameters

A design method for control systems with uncertain parameters is presented. The method utilizes a generalized sensitivity approach which separates the parameter space into regions which produce a system response that satisfies given design criteria and regions which do not. Nonparametric statistics and confidence limits for the binomial distribution are used to determine degree of parameter sensitivity and to locate regions in the parameter space which maximize the probability of producing a desirable system response. In an example it is shown that a given parameter may have to be known to a lesser degree of uncertainty to be able to specify a satisfactory design.

Auslander, D. M.↗

Observations of potential ultra high energy gamma-ray sources above 10(15) eV

The Haverah Park 50 m water-Cerenkov array has been used to examine a number of periodic sources for ultra high energy gamma-ray emission above 10 to the 15th power eV. The data, recorded between 1 Jan. 1979 and 31 Dec. 1984, feature a modest angular resolution of approx 3 deg with millisecond arrival time resolution post 1982. The sources investigated include the Crab pulsar, Her X-1, Au0115 + 63 and Geminga. All objects have been detected by workers in the TeV region, with varying degrees of confidence.

Lambert, A.↗

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Search for Neutral Heavy Scalars in ttZ Events Using 13 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

This thesis presents a search for a heavy pseudoscalar particle, A, which decays into a lighterscalar, H, and a Z boson within the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). We focus on Zboson decays to leptons, with H decays into a t t ̄ pair. The search uses the Asimov dataset–a theoretical dataset generated to predict the expected results for discovery and exclusion based on conditions from proton-proton collisions at the LHC, atintegrated luminosity of 138f b−1, as recorded by the CMS detector. The analysis focuses on events with three charged leptons, two of which come from the Z boson decay and one from a top quark decay. The expected results suggest the search has high sensitivity, showing discovery potential across much of the 2HDM Type-II parameter space, with possible deviations from the Standard Model background exceeding 5σ significance. The search sets upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio, assuming narrow particle widths, for A masses up to 2100 GeV and H masses up to 1900 GeV. The results are interpreted in the 2HDM Type-II framework to exclude certain regions of parameter space at the 95% confidence level as a function of particle masses and variables such as tanβ and cos(β−α). The findings highlight the potential reach implications of future search in this parameter region.

Rudrabhatla, Sahithi [Illinois U., Chicago]↗

A Geostatistical Data Fusion Technique for Merging Remote Sensing and Ground-Based Observations of Aerosol Optical Thickness

Particles in the atmosphere reflect incoming sunlight, tending to cool the Earth below. Some particles, such as soot, also absorb sunlight, which tens to warm the ambient atmosphere. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a measure of the amount of particulate matter in the atmosphere, and is a key input to computer models that simulate and predict Earth's changing climate. The global AOD products from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), both of which fly on the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra satellite, provide complementary views of the particles in the atmosphere. Whereas MODIS offers global coverage about four times as frequent as MISR, the multi-angle data makes it possible to separate the surface and atmospheric contributions to the observed top-of-atmosphere radiances, and also to more effectively discriminate particle type. Surface-based AERONET sun photometers retrieve AOD with smaller uncertainties than the satellite instruments, but only at a few fixed locations. So there are clear reasons to combine these data sets in a way that takes advantage of their respective strengths. This paper represents an effort at combining MISR, MODIS and AERONET AOD products over the continental US, using a common spatial statistical technique called kriging. The technique uses the correlation between the satellite data and the "ground-truth" sun photometer observations to assign uncertainty to the satellite data on a region-by-region basis. The larger fraction of the sun photometer variance that is duplicated by the satellite data, the higher the confidence assigned to the satellite data in that region. In the Western and Central US, MISR AOD correlation with AERONET are significantly higher than those with MODIS, likely due to bright surfaces in these regions, which pose greater challenges for the single-view MODIS retrievals. In the east, MODIS correlations are higher, due to more frequent sampling of the varying AOD. These results demonstrate how the MISR and MODIS aerosol products are complementary. The underlying technique also provides one method for combining these products in such a way that takes advantage of the strengths of each, in the places and times when they are maximal, and in addition, yields an estimate of the associated uncertainties in space and time.

Chatterjee, Abhishek↗

Comparison of calculated and measured velocities near the tip of a model rotor blade at transonic speeds

The ability of the ROT22 code to predict accurately the transonic flow field in the crucial region around and beyond the tip of a high speed rotor blade was assessed. The computations were compared with extensive laser velocimetry measurements made at zero advance ratio and tip Mach numbers of 0.85, 0.88, 0.90, and 0.95. The comparison between theory and experiment was made using 300 scans for the three orthogonal velocity components covering a volume having a height of over one blade chord, a width of nearly two chords, and a length ranging from about 1 to 1.6 chords, depending on the tip speeds. The good agreement between the calculated and measured velocities established the ability of the code to predict the off blade flow field at high tip speeds. This supplements previous comparisons where surface pressures were shown to be well predicted on two different tips at advance ratios to 0.45, especially at the critical 90 deg azimuth blade position. These results demonstrate that the ROT22 code can be used with confidence to predict the important tip region flow field including the occurrence, strength, and location of shock waves causing high drag and noise.

Tauber, M. E.↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

On the occurrence of sympathetic flares

Random-coincidence formulas are applied to the data used in previous studies of alleged sympathetic flares to determine whether statistical evidence on the occurrence of such flares can be found for specific physically connected pairs of active regions. Only those active regions that are interconnected by magnetic loops in soft X-rays on Skylab photographs are considered to be physically connected. All pairs of flaring active regions (both interconnected and otherwise) observed on the sun during the Skylab flight are also evaluated. The only positive result is obtained with statistical confidence of 3.4 sigmas for pairs of active regions separated by no more than 30 deg. The occurrence of short time intervals between flares is shown to be increased for such active-region pairs, but the pattern of time intervals is found not to correspond with any propagation mode of a triggering agent in the solar atmosphere. It is suggested that some subphotospheric synchronization of activity in nearby plages and sunspot groups could increase the number of short time intervals between flares at different locations without any actual influence of one 'sympathetic' flare upon another, leading to the concept of 'sympathetic active regions' instead of 'sympathetic flares'.

Fritzova-Svestkova, L.↗

Cross correlation anomaly detection system

This invention provides a method for automatically inspecting the surface of an object, such as an integrated circuit chip, whereby the data obtained by the light reflected from the surface, caused by a scanning light beam, is automatically compared with data representing acceptable values for each unique surface. A signal output provided indicated of acceptance or rejection of the chip. Acceptance is based on predetermined statistical confidence intervals calculated from known good regions of the object being tested, or their representative values. The method can utilize a known good chip, a photographic mask from which the I.C. was fabricated, or a computer stored replica of each pattern being tested.

Micka, E. Z.↗

Estimating forest productivity with Thematic Mapper and biogeographical data

Spectral data from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) on three forest exosystems (the southern Illinois, the Great Smoky Mountains regions in Tennessee and North Carolina, and the central Adirondack Mountains in New York) were used in conjunction with ground-collected measures of forest productivity and such information as the area's slope, aspect, elevation, and soil and vegetation types, to develop models of regional forest productivity. It is shown that the models developed may be used to estimate the productivity of a region with a high degree of confidence, but that the reliability of single-pixel estimates is poor. The characteristics of a given ecosystem determine which spectral values are most closely related to forest productivity. Thus, mid-IR, NIR, and visible bands are most significant in Illinois and New York, while the thermal band is relatively more important in the Smokies.

Cook, Elizabeth A.↗

Hurricane Bonnie Landfalling Observed from ER-2 Doppler Radar on 26 August 1998 During CAMEX-3

The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft collected remote sensing and in situ data sets from Hurricane Bonnie (23, 24, and 26 August 1998) during the Convection And Moisture Experimental-3 (CAMEX-3). Bonnie was an exceptional case where NASA and NOAA had five aircraft sampling both upper levels and lower altitudes. The ER-2 was instrumented with the ER-2 Doppler XBand radar (EDOP) and several radiometers ranging from visible to lower frequency microwaves. EDOP is a fixed dual-beam radar (nadir and forward-looking beams) which allows computation of both vertical and alongtrack horizontal winds. The hurricane secondary circulation is typically difficult to measure at upper levels due to aircraft altitude limitations and sensitivity of the lower altitude airborne radars. EDOP is in principle, well suited to measure these components of the wind. When ER-2 flies across the approximate center of the hurricane circulation, the along-track winds derived from EDOP, are approximately equal to the hurricane radial flow comprising the secondary circulation. Assuming that the hydrometeor fallspeeds can be approximated, the radial and vertical wind components of the secondary circulation can be measured. Since the hydrometeor motions can be estimated with more confidence in the higher altitude ice regions (i.e., graupel and mixed phase are complicated at lower altitudes), the derived radial and vertical winds have higher accuracy at upper levels. On the other hand, the reflectivities are extremely low at higher altitudes, resulting in fewer Doppler velocity estimates.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗