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DOE OSTI2025

A Joint Search for the Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Gravitational-Wave Binary Black-Hole Merger Candidate S250328ae with the Dark Energy Camera and the Prime Focus Spectrograph

The first detection of an optical counterpart to a gravitational wave signal revealed that collaborative efforts between instruments with different specializations provide a unique opportunity to acquire impactful multi-messenger data. We present results of such a joint search with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) for the optical counterpart of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA event S250328ae, a binary black hole merger candidate of high significance detected at a distance of 511$\pm$82 Mpc and localized within an area of 3 (15) square degrees at 50% (90%) confidence. We observed the 90% confidence area with DECam and identified 36 high-confidence transient candidates after image processing, candidate selection, and candidate vetting. We observed with PFS to obtain optical spectra of DECam candidates, Swift-XRT candidates, and potential host galaxies of S250328ae. In total, 3897 targets were observed by seven pointings covering ~50% of the 90% confidence area. After template fitting and visual inspection, we identified 12 SNe, 159 QSOs, 2975 galaxies, and 131 stars. With the joint observations of DECam and PFS, we found variability in 12 SNe, 139 QSOs, 37 galaxies, and 2 stars. We do not identify any confident optical counterparts, though the association is not ruled out for three variable candidates that are not observed by PFS and 6 QSO candidates without clear variability if the optical counterpart of S250328ae is faint. Despite the lack of confident optical counterparts, this paper serves as a framework for future collaborations between wide-field imagers and multi-object spectrographs to maximize multi-messenger analyses.

Zhang, Haibin [Natl. Astron. Observ. of Japan] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for CP violation in t$\overline{\textrm{t}}$H and tH production in multilepton channels in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The charge-parity (CP) structure of the Yukawa interaction between the Higgs (H) boson and the top quark is measured in a data sample enriched in the t$\overline{t}$H and tH associated production, using 138 fb -1 of data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study targets events where the H boson decays via H → WW or H → ττ and the top quarks decay via t → Wb: the W bosons decay either leptonically or hadronically, and final states characterized by the presence of at least two leptons are studied. Machine learning techniques are applied to these final states to enhance the separation of CP -even from CP -odd scenarios. Two-dimensional confidence regions are set on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, which are respectively defined as the CP -even and CP -odd top-Higgs Yukawa coupling modifiers. No significant fractional CP -odd contributions, parameterized by the quantity |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| are observed; the parameter is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.59 with an interval of (0.24, 0.81) at 68% confidence level. The results are combined with previous results covering the H → ZZ and H → γγ decay modes, yielding two- and one-dimensional confidence regions on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, while |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.28 with an interval of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| < 0.55 at 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model CP -even prediction of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A search for decays of the Higgs boson to invisible particles in events with a top-antitop quark pair or a vector boson in proton-proton collisions at $$\sqrt{s} = 13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $$

A search for decays to invisible particles of Higgs bosons produced in association with a top-antitop quark pair or a vector boson, which both decay to a fully hadronic final state, has been performed using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138fb -1 . The 95% confidence level upper limit set on the branching fraction of the 125 GeV Higgs boson to invisible particles, B(H → inv), is 0.54 (0.39 expected), assuming standard model production cross sections. The results of this analysis are combined with previous B(H → inv) searches carried out at $\sqrt{s} = 7$, 8, and 13 TeV in complementary production modes. The combined upper limit at 95% confidence level on B(H → inv) is 0.15 (0.08 expected).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.

Liu, Siyan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and Phenomenological Investigations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly

This thesis covers a range of experimental and theoretical efforts to elucidate the origin of the $4.8\sigma$ MiniBooNE low energy excess (LEE). We begin with the follow-up MicroBooNE experiment, which took data along the BNB from 2016 to 2021. This thesis specifically presents MicroBooNE's search for $\nu_e$ charged-current quasi-elastic (CCQE) interactions consistent with two-body scattering. The two-body CCQE analysis uses a novel reconstruction process, including a number of deep-learning-based algorithms, to isolate a sample of $\nu_e$ CCQE interaction candidates with $75\%$ purity. The analysis rules out an entirely $\nu_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE excess at the $2.4\sigma$ confidence level. We next perform a combined fit of MicroBooNE and MiniBooNE data to the popular $3+1$ model; even after the MicroBooNE results, allowed regions in $\Delta m^2$-$\sin^2 2_{\theta_{\mu e}}$ parameter space exist at the $3\sigma$ confidence level. This thesis also demonstrates that the MicroBooNE data are consistent with a $\overline{\nu}_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE LEE at the $<2\sigma$ confidence level. Next, we investigate a phenomenological explanation of the MiniBooNE excess combining the $3+1$ model with a dipole-coupled heavy neutral lepton (HNL). It is shown that a 500 MeV HNL can accommodate the energy and angular distributions of the LEE at the $2\sigma$ confidence level while avoiding stringent constraints derived from MINER$\nu$A elastic scattering data. Finally, we discuss the Coherent CAPTAIN-Mills experiment--a 10-ton light-based liquid argon detector at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The background rejection achieved from a novel Cherenkov-based reconstruction algorithm will enable world-leading sensitivity to a number of beyond-the-Standard Model physics scenarios, including dipole-coupled HNLs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Rare Earths and Toxics in E-Waste via Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning

Electronic waste (e-waste) presents a mounting challenge to environmental sustainability due to its complex composition, which includes high-value rare earth elements, hazardous organic compounds, and non-recyclable plastics. Accurate and scalable material classification is essential for enabling efficient resource recovery and safe recycling practices. This study introduces a confidence-aware classification pipeline that combines mid-infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI), spectral angle mapping (SAM), and iterative machine learning to perform pixel-level material identification across e-waste devices. A curated spectral library encompassing artificial materials (e.g., plastic iron oxide, galvanized metals), minerals (e.g., allanite, hematite), and organic compounds (e.g., benzanthracene, toluene) was used to generate pseudo-labels, each assigned a confidence score based on SAM-derived spectral similarity. High-confidence samples from seven consumer electronics—digital cameras, keyboards, laptop fans, modems, motherboards, TV remotes, and speakers—were iteratively expanded and classified using models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLSDA) and Logistic Regression. The best-performing classifiers achieved macro F1 scores approaching 1.0. Results revealed widespread plastic content (dominated by plastic iron oxide), the presence of rare earth-bearing minerals like cerium-containing allanite, and pervasive detection of hazardous organics such as benzanthracene. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) visualizations and confusion matrices confirmed high separability and robust classification performance. This methodology enables precise, non-destructive, and scalable classification of heterogeneous e-waste streams. It supports automated, hazard-aware sorting in recycling workflows, facilitating selective recovery of critical materials and compliance with circular economy goals. The confidence-aware framework provides a foundation for real-time deployment in industrial settings, offering significant implications for smart e-recycling infrastructure and policy-driven material stewardship.

Circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification and benchmarking relativistic electron beam transport through a background gas

It is necessary to establish confidence in high-consequence codes containing an extensive suite of physics algorithms in the regimes of interest. Verification problems allow code developers to assess numerical accuracy and increase confidence that specific sets of model physics were implemented correctly in the code. The two main verification techniques are code verification and solution verification. In this work, we present verification problems that can be used in other codes to increase confidence in simulations of relativistic beam transport. Specifically, we use the general plasma code EMPIRE to model and compare with the analytical solution to the evolution of the outer radial envelope of a relativistic charged particle beam. Additionally, we also outline a benchmark test of a relativistic beam propagating through a vacuum and pressurized gas cell, and present the results between EMPIRE and the hybrid code GAZEL. Further, we discuss the subtle errors that were caught with these problems and detail lessons learned.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Set Analysis to Reduce Uncertainty in Formula Assignments of Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectra

Environmental samples contain a vast array of organic compounds with diverse elemental compositions and heteroatom content. Molecular formula assignments of ultrahigh resolution mass spectra (HRMS) hold promise for elucidating the molecular composition of these compounds. However, the need to account for an assortment of heteroatoms increases the uncertainty associated with individual assignments – and ultimately the ecological, biological, and biogeochemical insights gleaned from the assignments. To address this challenge, we introduce a formula assignment strategy that leverages HRMS data sets to improve assignment confidence, filter false assignments, and mitigate bias in assignment routines. The strategy, implemented using CoreMS, first identifies the highest confidence assignment for a recurring ion in a data set by assessing the mass accuracy and isotopologue similarity of all assignments to the ion across the data set. The second component of the strategy examines the consistency of mass errors for an assigned ion throughout a data set and flags formulas with statistically unlikely deviations in mass error. Here, we illustrate the application and utility of the strategy by comparing its results against documented misassignment patterns within a set of oceanographic samples that were measured with 21 T Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry. Because the efficacy of our strategy improves with data set size, it is particularly useful for enhancing assignment confidence in large HRMS data sets common in studies of environmental systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XV. Limits on large-scale polarized anomalous microwave emission from Planck LFI and WMAP

We constrained the level of polarized anomalous microwave emission (AME) on large angular scales using Planck Low-Frequency Instrument (LFI) and WMAP polarization data within a Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis framework. We modeled synchrotron emission with a power-law spectral energy distribution, as well as the sum of AME and thermal dust emission through linear regression with the Planck High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) 353 GHz data. This template-based dust emission model allowed us to constrain the level of polarized AME while making minimal assumptions on its frequency dependence. We neglected CMB fluctuations, but show through simulations that these fluctuations have a minor impact on the results. We find that the resulting AME polarization fraction confidence limit is sensitive to the polarized synchrotron spectral index prior. In addition, for prior means β s < -3.1 we find an upper limit of p AME max ≲ 0.6% (95% confidence). In contrast, for means β s = -3.0, we find a nominal detection of p AME = 2.5 ± 1.0% (95% confidence). These data are thus not strong enough to simultaneously and robustly constrain both polarized synchrotron emission and AME, and our main result is therefore a constraint on the AME polarization fraction explicitly as a function of β s . Combining the current Planck and WMAP observations with measurements from high-sensitivity low-frequency experiments such as C-BASS and QUIJOTE will be critical to improve these limits further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reference Correlations for the Density and Viscosity of Molten Alkali and Alkaline Earth Fluoride Salts

While there is a significant body of literature pertaining to thermophysical property measurements of molten salts, there is often a wide degree of variability among independent measurements of the same compounds. As such, the scientific community benefits greatly from an unbiased, independent assessment of duplicate datasets, so that reference correlations which describe these thermophysical properties as functions of temperature can be determined and then commonly used by researchers, scientists, and engineers. With regard to molten fluoride compounds, a significant time has elapsed since density and viscosity reference correlations have been determined; Janz conducted the most recent effort, in 1988, to provide reference correlations for the densities and viscosities of molten fluoride compounds via the National Standard Reference Data System coordinated by the National Bureau of Standards. Since then, new data have been published for molten fluoride compounds, and a new precedent has surfaced for putting forth reference correlations that involve fitting to multiple primary datasets. In this work, reference correlations are put forth for molten alkali and alkaline earth fluoride compounds in an effort to provide updated, improved correlations for general use. For molten alkali fluoride densities, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows: LiF (0.63%), NaF (0.48%), KF (0.76%), RbF (0.93%), and CsF (0.75%). For molten alkaline earth fluoride densities, an estimated uncertainty was not able to be quantified for BeF 2 because of limited data; however, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows for the remaining alkaline earth fluorides: MgF 2 (1.5%), CaF 2 (0.92%), SrF 2 (1.6%), and BaF 2 (0.23%). For molten alkali fluoride viscosities, uncertainty was not able to be quantified for RbF and CsF because of limited data; however, estimated uncertainties with a 95% confidence interval are summarized as follows for the remaining alkali fluorides: LiF (4.4%), NaF (3.0%), and KF (4.0%). For molten alkaline earth fluoride viscosities, limited consistent data resulted in the recommendation of single datasets (from literature) that are deemed to be the most trustworthy based on the quality of the underlying experimental studies.

Birri, A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), O↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗