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DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulation of a high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor: Flame structure and stabilisation mechanism

A high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor has been investigated using direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry to examine the flame structure and stabilisation mechanism. The configuration of the combustor was based on the design by Schefer et al., using numerical periodicity to mimic a large square array. A precursor simulation of an opposed jet-in-crossflow was first conducted to generate appropriate partially-premixed inflow boundary conditions for the subsequent reacting simulation. The resulting flame can be described as an predominantly-lean inhomogeneously-premixed lifted jet flame. Five main zones were identified: a jet mixing region, a core flame, a peripheral flame, a recirculation zone, and combustion products. The core flame, situated over the jet mixing region, was found to burn as a thin reaction front, responsible for over 85% of the total fuel consumption. The peripheral flame shrouded the core flame, had low mean flow with high turbulence, and burned at very lean conditions (in the distributed burning regime). It was shown that turbulent premixed flame propagation was an order-of-magnitude too slow to stabilise the flame at these conditions. Stabilisation was identified to be due to ignition events resulting from turbulent mixing of fuel from the jet into mean recirculation of very lean hot products. Ignition events were found to correlate with shear-driven Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices, and increased in likelihood with streamwise distance. At the flame base, isolated events were observed, which developed into rapidly burning flame kernels that were blown downstream. Further downstream, near-simultaneous spatially-distributed ignition events were observed, which appeared more like ignition sheets. The paper concludes with a broader discussion that considers generalising from the conditions considered here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Attribution of heterogeneous stress distributions in low-grain polycrystals under conditions leading to damage

In high-purity polycrystalline metallic materials, voids tend to favor grain boundaries as nucleation sites due to the elevated stress states produced by granular interactions and the weakened grain boundary from the relative atomic disorder. To quantify the key factors of this elevated stress state, simple compression of a small multi-grain cylinder of body-centered cubic tantalum was simulated using a single crystal plasticity model that incorporates non-Schmid effects. Four increasingly complex synthetic microstructures were created to tractably incorporate grain boundary interactions, and a statistically significant number of combinations were performed by varying the initial crystallographic orientations of the microstructure. Most of these simulations produce the maximum von Mises stress on a grain boundary and less frequently at the multi-grain junctions. To build a statistical model for the maximum von Mises stress at the grain boundary, physically based features that could contribute to the elevated stress state were selected. Then, a learning algorithm based on information theory was used to identify which of these features contributed the most information to the data set. The identified features include a grain’s propensity to accommodate both elastic and plastic deformations and their directional components. The misalignment of the direction of each grain’s mechanical response was found to be strongly correlated to the magnitude of the stress near the grain boundary. For all of the synthetic microstructures, the statistical models produce a residual distribution that is nearly Gaussian with a variance of, at most, 10% of the prior distribution. The successful performance of the statistical model implies the correct identification of the physical features that cause severe stress localization in polycrystalline materials. The statistical models constructed here can be used to formulate a physically motivated void nucleation model which is sensitive to a microstructure’s propensity to produce elevated stress states. As a result, these statistical models also enable the design of material microstructures, in which the crystallographic orientation is chosen to resist void nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Metallic Fuel Data Recovery in FIPD

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) [1] is an organized collection of metallic fuel test pin data (U-xPu-yZr, = 0 ~ 28; y = 2 ~ 10) and documentation available to industry. FIPD mainly contains three types of data: (1) Fuel pin fabrication data, including fuel slug diameter, fuel slug length, cladding diameter, smear density, etc. (2) Fuel pin operation conditions, including axial distributions for power, temperatures, fluences, burnup, and isotopic densities, etc. and (3) Fuel pin post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, including fission gas release and gas chemistry, profilometry, and neutron radiography, etc. The operating conditions for pins with PIE data available in FIPD span significant ranges across key parameters. The fuel peak burnup extends from less than 5% up to 20 at%. The cladding peak temperature varies from about 490°C to 660°C. Finally, the cladding peak DPA shows a wide range from less than 5 to 120. These broad ranges reflect the diverse testing conditions and operational parameters captured in the available PIE data. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). As reported in the ref. [3, 4], most of the PIE data generated during the IFR program [5] has been collected, reviewed, processed, and integrated into FIPD. The most recently added PIE data can be found in ref. [4], which shows the collection of over 95% of the PIE data by the time of this paper. The recent improvements to the database are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale simulation of granular materials under weak shock compaction–pore size distribution effects

This research established a systematic method to generate various pore-size distributions (PSDs) and studied the effect of PSDs on the shock compaction response of granular materials using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations under identical porosity. Simulations utilized various PSDs for three particle shapes (circle, ellipse, and square). Contacting particle configurations using three PSDs, characterized by spatially uniform distributed pores to heterogeneous distributed pores, and non-contacting particle configurations under a single case of PSD were tested. The PSD of generated particle sets was characterized using coordination number, mean diameter, and bimodality coefficient as statistical metrics. Mesoscale simulations showed that regardless of the conditions of pore distributions, shock compaction of granular materials consistently demonstrates a precursor, shock compaction front, and end. However, the shock compaction velocity of contacting particles was dependent on the PSDs despite the constant initial porosity. The compaction velocity was faster in particle configurations with relatively uniform pore distributions than in heterogeneous pore distributions, which our study demonstrated can be attributed to particle rearrangement during compaction. Circular-shaped particles had high sensitivity in shock compaction response to the various PSDs. Furthermore, a contacting particle configuration tended to propagate the shock compaction wave relatively faster than particles that were in a non-contact configuration. This study established the relative importance of considering PSD as a metric over the coordination number in studies of the shock compaction response of granular materials. Further, insights are provided on the evolving shock substructure to characterize the shock compaction response of granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Nanoparticle Precipitation in Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened Steels Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) enables the efficient production of near-net-shape oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys, which possess superior mechanical properties due to oxide nanoparticles (e.g., yttrium oxide, Y-O, and yttrium-titanium oxide, Y-Ti-O) embedded in the alloy matrix. To better understand the precipitation mechanisms of the oxide nanoparticles and predict their size distribution under LPBF conditions, we developed an innovative physics-based multiscale modeling strategy that incorporates multiple computational approaches. These include a finite volume method model (Flow3D) to analyze the temperature field and cooling rate of the melt pool during the LPBF process, a density functional theory model to calculate the binding energy of Y-O particles and the temperature-dependent diffusivities of Y and O in molten 316L stainless steel (SS), and a cluster dynamics model to evaluate the kinetic evolution and size distribution of Y-O nanoparticles in as-fabricated 316L SS ODS alloys. The model-predicted particle sizes exhibit good agreement with experimental measurements across various LPBF process parameters, i.e., laser power (110–220 W) and scanning speed (150–900 mm/s), demonstrating the reliability and predictive power of the modeling approach. The multiscale approach can be used to guide the future design of experimental process parameters to control oxide nanoparticle characteristics in LPBF-manufactured ODS alloys. Additionally, our approach introduces a novel strategy for understanding and modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of precipitation in high-temperature systems, particularly molten alloys.

Wang, Zhengming (ORCID:0000000241627112)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comparative analysis of residual stresses from friction stir processing of aluminum cast 380 and wrought 7075 alloy sheets: experimental characterization and modeling

Residual stresses are often overlooked in friction stir processing (FSP), but their significant impact on fatigue performance necessitates their consideration in optimizing processing parameters. The first step in this effort is understanding how process conditions influence residual stress distributions, especially across different alloys. This study focuses on determining and explaining the through-thickness residual stress variations and the effect of process temperature on the residual stress magnitude in wrought AA7075 and cast AA380.0 alloys. Additionally, for AA380.0, the impact of a second FSP pass was investigated. To achieve this, hole-drilling electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI) and the thermal pseudo-mechanical (TPM) model within finite element analysis were employed to study the 3D distributions of in-plane residual stresses in processed samples under various conditions. A key finding was the varying impact of process temperatures on residual stress magnitudes. Higher process temperatures reduced stresses in AA380.0 but increased them in AA7075. Additionally, the through-thickness stress distributions differed between the two alloys. Further analysis revealed that yield stresses are crucial in explaining these phenomena and the effects of additional FSP passes. Further, this fundamental understanding will be vital in guiding the efforts to mitigate residual stresses and assess their impact on the performance of FSP aluminum alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Effect of Electrode Thermodynamics on Reaction Heterogeneity in Thick Battery Electrodes

Thick electrodes present a viable strategy for enhancing energy density and reducing manufacturing costs of lithium-ion batteries. However, reaction heterogeneity during cycling compromises their rate capability and cycle life. While this nonuniformity is commonly attributed to sluggish charge transport, it is demonstrated here that the thermodynamic properties of the electrode material play an equally critical role. Through combined X-ray fluorescence microscopy and absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy, reaction distributions in LiFePO 4 (LFP) and LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) thick electrodes with matched porosity and tortuosity are compared. LFP electrodes develop pronounced depth-oriented state-of-charge (SOC) gradients that worsen with increasing discharge rates, whereas NMC maintains much more uniform SOC distributions under such conditions. This difference originates from their distinct SOC dependence of equilibrium potentials and is quantifiable through a dimensionless “reaction uniformity” number. Intriguingly, LFP thick electrodes also exhibit lateral SOC variations that strengthen during slow discharge. In conclusion, the enhanced reaction uniformity in NMC correlates with better active material utilization and slower capacity fade than LFP, highlighting electrode thermodynamics as a key design consideration for thick electrodes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

DOE OSTI2024

A robust synthetic data generation framework for machine learning in high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM)

Machine learning techniques are attractive options for developing highly-accurate analysis tools for nanomaterials characterization, including high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). However, successfully implementing such machine learning tools can be difficult due to the challenges in procuring sufficiently large, high-quality training datasets from experiments. In this work, we introduce Construction Zone, a Python package for rapid generation of complex nanoscale atomic structures which enables fast, systematic sampling of realistic nanomaterial structures and can be used as a random structure generator for large, diverse synthetic datasets. Using Construction Zone, we develop an end-to-end machine learning workflow for training neural network models to analyze experimental atomic resolution HRTEM images on the task of nanoparticle image segmentation purely with simulated databases. Further, we study the data curation process to understand how various aspects of the curated simulated data—including simulation fidelity, the distribution of atomic structures, and the distribution of imaging conditions—affect model performance across three benchmark experimental HRTEM image datasets. Using our workflow, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art segmentation performance on these experimental benchmarks and, further, we discuss robust strategies for consistently achieving high performance with machine learning in experimental settings using purely synthetic data. Construction Zone and its documentation are available at https://github.com/lerandc/construction_zone.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of an Out-Of-Pile Experimental Facility to Demonstrate the Feasibility of In Situ Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Nuclear Fuels Under Irradiation

There is substantial merit in quantifying nuclear fuel performance under irradiation. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the MiniFuel irradiation platform has become the primary test vehicle for conducting separate-effects fuel performance irradiation experiments. The MiniFuel experiment is a passively controlled capsule design deployed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) through which fuel performance data is collected post-irradiation. Separate effects fuels irradiation capabilities are being expanded at ORNL by developing instrumented capsule designs that aim to capture fuel performance phenomena in-situ. One such capsule will specifically target fuel specimen thermal conductivity changes as a function of fuel burnup. Due to the complexity of making this measurement on nuclear fuel in-pile, this paper describes the necessary out-of-pile testing conducted on the thermal conductivity capsule (TCC) design. The measurement is ascertained via a thermopile system with heat transferred unidirectionally through a surrogate fuel specimen sandwiched between two conductive materials. The capsules investigated in this study are representative of the in-pile design, with the primary departure from irradiation conditions being the distribution of heat generation within the capsule. In the out-of-pile experiment, an external heater was used to drive heat through the conductive slug materials and into the specimen. This paper expounds the design of the out-of-pile experimental system and the thermal conductivity measurement technique. Predictive models used to determine the sensitivity of the measurement to variables governing thermal contact conductance between the specimen and slug materials and to predict experimental results are also described. Data from the out-of-pile experiment will be used to validate the readiness of the design for insertion into HFIR for irradiation.

Parker, Trevor [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino Beam Monitoring

Accelerator facilities produce neutrino beams from meson decays in a decay volume. Experiments measure event rates that depend on flux, cross sections, and detector response, so the flux is predicted using hadron production and beamline modeling and constrained by beam instrumentation, since near detectors alone cannot separate flux from cross section. Proton, hadron, and muon monitors can track the parent particle distributions and beam conditions, providing the inputs needed for flux predictions in long-baseline experiments such as NOvA, T2K, and DUNE. This talk reviews how beam monitors are used in practice to understand neutrino flux. Proton beam monitors tell where the beam hits the target and how stable it is. Farther downstream, hadron and muon monitors sample particles produced in meson decays. Because those muons come from the same parents as the neutrinos, their profiles reveal focusing, alignment shifts, and other changes in the beam, and they are routinely used to detect problems and guide flux predictions. The muon information can be used more quantitatively; for example, to infer the parent meson phase space, and fast radiation-hard timing detectors can add sensitivity to the momentum dependence of the focusing. These developments show both how tightly beam measurements can constrain the flux and where the current limits still lie. These approaches complement monitored-beam concepts, in which the decay region is instrumented to detect charged leptons from meson decays and to measure the neutrino flux directly.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino Beam Monitoring

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the causes of satellite–model discrepancies in aerosol–cloud interactions using near-LES simulations of marine boundary layer clouds

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing, primarily because of deficiencies in representing aerosol–cloud microphysical processes that lead to inconsistent cloud liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosol perturbations between observations and models. To investigate this discrepancy, we conducted a series of large-eddy-scale simulations driven by realistic meteorology over the eastern North Atlantic, and evaluated LWP susceptibility, precipitation processes, and boundary layer thermodynamics using satellite and ground-based observations. Simulated LWP responses show a strong dependence on cloud state. Non-precipitating thin clouds exhibit a modest LWP decrease with increasing cloud droplet number concentration (N d ), consistent in sign but weaker in magnitude than satellite estimates, reflecting enhanced turbulent mixing and evaporation. The largest model-observation discrepancy occurs in non-precipitating thick clouds, where simulated LWP susceptibilities are strongly positive (+0.32) while observations indicate large negative values (−0.69). This discrepancy stems from excessive precipitation driven by underestimated entrainment, overly active accretion, and overly broad drop-size distributions in polluted conditions. While our high-resolution setup mitigates the excessive drizzling common in coarser models and captures key regime transitions, these biases persist – highlighting that improved parameterizations of cloud-top processes, precipitation, and aerosol effects are needed beyond simply increasing model resolution. Additionally, misrepresented moisture inversions in reanalysis introduce a moist bias in cloud-top relative humidity, further amplifying positive LWP susceptibility. Our results also suggest that large negative N d –LWP relationships in observations may reflect internal cloud processes rather than true ACI effects.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗