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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

A Fast Implementation of the ISOCLUS Algorithm

Unsupervised clustering is a fundamental tool in numerous image processing and remote sensing applications. For example, unsupervised clustering is often used to obtain vegetation maps of an area of interest. This approach is useful when reliable training data are either scarce or expensive, and when relatively little a priori information about the data is available. Unsupervised clustering methods play a significant role in the pursuit of unsupervised classification. One of the most popular and widely used clustering schemes for remote sensing applications is the ISOCLUS algorithm, which is based on the ISODATA method. The algorithm is given a set of n data points (or samples) in d-dimensional space, an integer k indicating the initial number of clusters, and a number of additional parameters. The general goal is to compute a set of cluster centers in d-space. Although there is no specific optimization criterion, the algorithm is similar in spirit to the well known k-means clustering method in which the objective is to minimize the average squared distance of each point to its nearest center, called the average distortion. One significant feature of ISOCLUS over k-means is that clusters may be merged or split, and so the final number of clusters may be different from the number k supplied as part of the input. This algorithm will be described in later in this paper. The ISOCLUS algorithm can run very slowly, particularly on large data sets. Given its wide use in remote sensing, its efficient computation is an important goal. We have developed a fast implementation of the ISOCLUS algorithm. Our improvement is based on a recent acceleration to the k-means algorithm, the filtering algorithm, by Kanungo et al.. They showed that, by storing the data in a kd-tree, it was possible to significantly reduce the running time of k-means. We have adapted this method for the ISOCLUS algorithm. For technical reasons, which are explained later, it is necessary to make a minor modification to the ISOCLUS specification. We provide empirical evidence, on both synthetic and Landsat image data sets, that our algorithm's performance is essentially the same as that of ISOCLUS, but with significantly lower running times. We show that our algorithm runs from 3 to 30 times faster than a straightforward implementation of ISOCLUS. Our adaptation of the filtering algorithm involves the efficient computation of a number of cluster statistics that are needed for ISOCLUS, but not for k-means.

Memarsadeghi, Nargess↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analysis of spectra using correlation functions

A novel method is presented for the quantitative analysis of spectra based on the properties of the cross correlation between a real spectrum and either a numerical synthesis or laboratory simulation. A new goodness-of-fit criterion called the heteromorphic coefficient H is proposed that has the property of being zero when a fit is achieved and varying smoothly through zero as the iteration proceeds, providing a powerful tool for automatic or near-automatic analysis. It is also shown that H can be rendered substantially noise-immune, permitting the analysis of very weak spectra well below the apparent noise level and, as a byproduct, providing Doppler shift and radial velocity information with excellent precision. The technique is in regular use in the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) project and operates in an interactive, realtime computing environment with turn-around times of a few seconds or less.

Beer, Reinhard↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decode the Workload: Training Deep Learning Models for Efficient Compute Cluster Representation

Monitoring the status of a high throughput computing cluster running computationally intensive production jobs is a crucial yet challenging system administration task due to the complexity of such systems. To this end, we train autoencoders using the Linux kernel CPU metrics of the cluster. Additionally, we explore assisting these models with graph neural networks to share information across threads within a compute node. The models are compared in terms of their ability to: 1) Produce a compressed latent representation that captures the salient features of the input, 2) Detect anomalous activity, and 3) Make distinction between different kinds of jobs run at Jefferson Lab. The goal is to have a robust encoder whose compressed embeddings are used for several downstream tasks. We extend this study further by deploying these models in a human-in-the-loop production-based setting for the anomaly detection task and discuss the associated implementation aspects such as continual learning and the criterion to generate alarms. This study represents a first step in the endeavor towards building self-supervised large-scale foundation models for computing centers.

Mohammed, Ahmed↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Design Optimization for Aerodynamics and Rocket Propulsion Components

Modern computational and experimental tools for aerodynamics and propulsion applications have matured to a stage where they can provide substantial insight into engineering processes involving fluid flows, and can be fruitfully utilized to help improve the design of practical devices. In particular, rapid and continuous development in aerospace engineering demands that new design concepts be regularly proposed to meet goals for increased performance, robustness and safety while concurrently decreasing cost. To date, the majority of the effort in design optimization of fluid dynamics has relied on gradient-based search algorithms. Global optimization methods can utilize the information collected from various sources and by different tools. These methods offer multi-criterion optimization, handle the existence of multiple design points and trade-offs via insight into the entire design space, can easily perform tasks in parallel, and are often effective in filtering the noise intrinsic to numerical and experimental data. However, a successful application of the global optimization method needs to address issues related to data requirements with an increase in the number of design variables, and methods for predicting the model performance. In this article, we review recent progress made in establishing suitable global optimization techniques employing neural network and polynomial-based response surface methodologies. Issues addressed include techniques for construction of the response surface, design of experiment techniques for supplying information in an economical manner, optimization procedures and multi-level techniques, and assessment of relative performance between polynomials and neural networks. Examples drawn from wing aerodynamics, turbulent diffuser flows, gas-gas injectors, and supersonic turbines are employed to help demonstrate the issues involved in an engineering design context. Both the usefulness of the existing knowledge to aid current design practices and the need for future research are identified.

Shyy, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Model for the Onset of Vortex Breakdown

A large body of information exists on the breakdown of incompressible streamwise vortices. Less is known about vortex breakdown at high speeds. An interesting example of supersonic vortex breakdown is the breakdown induced by the interaction of vortices with shock waves. The flow in supersonic engine inlets and over high-speed delta wings constitute technologically important examples of this phenomenon, which is termed 'shock-induced vortex breakdown'. In this report, we propose a model to predict the onset of shock-induced vortex breakdown. The proposed model has no adjustable constants, and is compared to both experiment and computation. The model is then extended to consider two other problems: the breakdown of a free compressible vortex, and free incompressible vortex breakdown. The same breakdown criterion is used in all three problems to predict the onset of breakdown. Finally, a new breakdown map is proposed that allows the simultaneous comparison of data from flows ranging from incompressible breakdown to breakdown induced by a shock wave.

Mahesh, K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Investigation of Conjugate Heat Transfer in Turbine Blades and Vanes

We report on work carried out to develop a 3-D coupled Finite Volume/BEM-based temperature forward/flux back (TFFB) coupling algorithm to solve the conjugate heat transfer (CHT) which arises naturally in analysis of systems exposed to a convective environment. Here, heat conduction within a structure is coupled to heat transfer to the external fluid which is convecting heat into or out of the solid structure. There are two basic approaches to solving coupled fluid structural systems. The first is a direct coupling where the solution of the different fields is solved simultaneously in one large set of equations. The second approach is a loose coupling strategy where each set of field equations is solved to provide boundary conditions for the other. The equations are solved in turn until an iterated convergence criterion is met at the fluid-solid interface. The loose coupling strategy is particularly attractive when coupling auxiliary field equations to computational fluid dynamics codes. We adopt the latter method in which the BEM is used to solve heat conduction inside a structure which is exposed to a convective field which in turn is resolved by solving the NASA Glenn compressible Navier-Stokes finite volume code Glenn-HT. The BEM code features constant and bi-linear discontinuous elements and an ILU-preconditioned GMRES iterative solver for the resulting non-symmetric algebraic set arising in the conduction solution. Interface of flux and temperature is enforced at the solid/fluid interface, and a radial-basis function scheme is used to interpolated information between the CFD and BEM surface grids. Additionally, relaxation is implemented in passing the fluxes from the conduction solution to the fluid solution. Results from a simple test example are reported.

Kassab, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of proportions in mixed pixels through their region characterization

A region of mixed pixels can be characterized through the probability density function of proportions of classes in the pixels. Using information from the spectral vectors of a given set of pixels from the mixed pixel region, expressions are developed for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of probability density functions of proportions. The proportions of classes in the mixed pixels can then be estimated. If the mixed pixels contain objects of two classes, the computation can be reduced by transforming the spectral vectors using a transformation matrix that simultaneously diagonalizes the covariance matrices of the two classes. If the proportions of the classes of a set of mixed pixels from the region are given, then expressions are developed for obtaining the estmates of the parameters of the probability density function of the proportions of mixed pixels. Development of these expressions is based on the criterion of the minimum sum of squares of errors. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed agricultural multispectral imagery data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Smart Scattering Scanning Near-Field Optical Microscopy

Scattering scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM) provides spectroscopic imaging from molecular to quantum materials with few nanometer deep subdiffraction limited spatial resolution. However, in its conventional implementation s-SNOM is slow to effectively acquire a series of spatio-spectral images, especially with large fields of view. This problem is further exacerbated for weak resonance contrast or when using light sources with limited spectral irradiance. Indeed, the generally limited signal-to-noise ratio prevents sampling a weak signal at the Nyquist sampling rate. Here, we demonstrate how acquisition time and sampling rate can be significantly reduced by using compressed sampling, matrix completion, and adaptive random sampling, while maintaining or even enhancing the physical or chemical image content. We use fully sampled real data sets of molecular, biological, and quantum materials as ground-truth physical data and show how deep under-sampling with a corresponding reduction of acquisition time by 1 order of magnitude or more retains the core s-SNOM image information. We demonstrate that a sampling rate of up to 6× smaller than the Nyquist criterion can be applied, which would provide a 30-fold reduction in the data required under typical experimental conditions. Furthermore, our smart s-SNOM approach is generally applicable and provides systematic full spatio-spectral s-SNOM imaging with a large field of view at high spectral resolution and reduced acquisition time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2013

Experimental Database with Baseline CFD Solutions: 2-D and Axisymmetric Hypersonic Shock-Wave/Turbulent-Boundary-Layer Interactions

A database compilation of hypersonic shock-wave/turbulent boundary layer experiments is provided. The experiments selected for the database are either 2D or axisymmetric, and include both compression corner and impinging type SWTBL interactions. The strength of the interactions range from attached to incipient separation to fully separated flows. The experiments were chosen based on criterion to ensure quality of the datasets, to be relevant to NASA's missions and to be useful for validation and uncertainty assessment of CFD Navier-Stokes predictive methods, both now and in the future. An emphasis on datasets selected was on surface pressures and surface heating throughout the interaction, but include some wall shear stress distributions and flowfield profiles. Included, for selected cases, are example CFD grids and setup information, along with surface pressure and wall heating results from simulations using current NASA real-gas Navier-Stokes codes by which future CFD investigators can compare and evaluate physics modeling improvements and validation and uncertainty assessments of future CFD code developments. The experimental database is presented tabulated in the Appendices describing each experiment. The database is also provided in computer-readable ASCII files located on a companion DVD.

Database↗
DOE OSTI2025

CLEAP Project: OR-SAGE Analysis for MT, UT, and CO States

The OR-SAGE tool is designed to use industry-accepted practices in screening sites and then employ the proper array of data sources through the considerable computational capabilities of GIS technology available at ORNL. The tool was developed to screen the potential for NPP siting on a national and regional basis. However, because of the tool granularity, it is often focused specifically on the immediate area around user sites of interest. If data center siting parameters can be added to OR-SAGE, the ability to evaluate data center siting on a localized scale will be beneficial.1 More than 60 data sets have been collected and processed by ORNL to develop exclusionary, avoidance, and suitability criteria for screening sites for a variety of power generation types, including nuclear power plants. Available site evaluation parameters include population density, slope, seismic activity, proximity to cooling-water sources, proximity to hazard facilities, avoidance of protected lands and floodplains, susceptibility to landslide hazards, and many others. All siting parameters should be considered as flags to inform siting decisions and should not be used to rule in or rule out any NPP site. Once data center siting parameters are identified, appropriate data sets will be collected and processed. The OR-SAGE process is very versatile. Essentially, OR-SAGE is a visual, relational database. The database partitions the contiguous United States, a total of 720 million hectares (~1.8 billion acres), into 100-m by 100-m (1 hectare or ~2.5 acre) cells. The database is tracking just under 700 million individual land cells. Successive suitability criterion is applied to each cell in the database. User-specified thresholds can be applied to each siting parameter data layer. In this manner, a variety of scenarios can be quickly and thoroughly evaluated. Data can be added and/or revised within OR-SAGE to address user interests. Siting security assessment capability is currently being added to OR-SAGE. Security is expected to be of concern at data centers whether it is collocated with a nuclear power generating technology or not. If data center is collocated with a nuclear power generating source, the security threat attractiveness level of both will likely increase. It will be of additional benefit if a potential data center site is also assessed for security vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Luminaire layout: Design and implementation

The information contained in this report was presented during the discussion regarding guidelines for PAR uniformity in greenhouses. The data shows a lighting uniformity analysis in a research greenhouse for rose production at the Cornell University campus. The luminaire layout was designed using the computer program Lumen-Micro. After implementation of the design, accurate measurements were taken in the greenhouse and the uniformity analysis for both the design and implementation were compared. A study of several supplemental lighting installations resulted in the following recommendations: include only the actual growing area in the lighting uniformity analysis; for growing areas up to 20 square meters, take four measurements per square meter; for growing areas above 20 square meters, take one measurement per square meter; use one of the uniformity criteria and frequency graphs to compare lighting uniformity amongst designs; and design for uniformity criterion of a least 0.75 and the fraction within +/- 15% of the average PAR value should be close to one.

Both, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

ACCRUE—An Integral Index for Measuring Experimental Relevance in Support of Neutronic Model Validation

A key challenge for the introduction of any design changes, e.g., advanced fuel concepts, first-of-a-kind nuclear reactor designs, etc., is the cost of the associated experiments, which are required by law to validate the use of computer models for the various stages, starting from conceptual design, to deployment, licensing, operation, and safety. To achieve that, a criterion is needed to decide on whether a given experiment, past or planned, is relevant to the application of interest. This allows the analyst to select the best experiments for the given application leading to the highest measures of confidence for the computer model predictions. The state-of-the-art methods rely on the concept of similarity or representativity, which is a linear Gaussian-based inner-product metric measuring the angle—as weighted by a prior model parameters covariance matrix—between two gradients, one representing the application and the other a single validation experiment. This manuscript emphasizes the concept of experimental relevance which extends the basic similarity index to account for the value accrued from past experiments and the associated experimental uncertainties, both currently missing from the extant similarity methods. Accounting for multiple experiments is key to the overall experimental cost reduction by prescreening for redundant information from multiple equally-relevant experiments as measured by the basic similarity index. Accounting for experimental uncertainties is also important as it allows one to select between two different experimental setups, thus providing for a quantitative basis for sensor selection and optimization. The proposed metric is denoted by ACCRUE, short for Accumulative Correlation Coefficient for Relevance of Uncertainties in Experimental validation. Using a number of criticality experiments for highly enriched fast metal systems and low enriched thermal compound systems with accident tolerant fuel concept, the manuscript will compare the performance of the ACCRUE and basic similarity indices for prioritizing the relevance of a group of experiments to the given application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-scale nonlinear stress analysis of Nb 3 Sn superconducting accelerator magnets

A multi-scale nonlinear procedure to analyze the stress in Nb 3 Sn superconducting accelerator magnets is presented to address one of the most challenging obstacles currently facing the successful development of high-field superconducting magnets—the issue of stress management. The study demonstrates that gaskets (special nonlinear materials) are capable of modeling the complex nonlinear deformation behavior of insulation layers within the Nb 3 Sn coil block and that Hill materials (orthotropic materials utilizing the Hill yield criterion) are suitable to enable homogenization of the filamentary regions and the resin-impregnated Nb 3 Sn Rutherford cables. With the whole magnet under preload, cool-down, and Lorentz forces, the nonlinear behavior of the Nb 3 Sn coil was simulated, in three orthongonal axes, by the combined properties of the gaskets (insulation layers) and Hill materials (resin-impreganted cable). The procedure entailes minimal material assumptions because it incorporated measured stress-strain curves in the analysis. The coil was simulated to a high level of detail consisting of the insulation layers and resin-impregnated cables. The computed compressive azimuthal stresses of the cables were used to assess the stress-induced performance degradation. Through submodeling, the area-weighted average axial strains of the strands were computed and employed to evaluate the strain-induced performance degradation. The overall performance degradation of the Nb 3 Sn coil was thus obtained, and this information was subsequently used to guide the design of the overall magnet. Besides Nb 3 Sn magnets, this procedure can also be employed in the design of LTS, HTS, and room temperature magnets or in any composite structures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

A mechanistic interpretation of Nelson curves for PVP failures under high temperature hydrogen attack

As an empirically established design criterion, Nelson curves that relate the service temperature and the allowable hydrogen partial pressure have been developed and utilized for more than sixty years in pressure vessels and piping (PVP) safety design. Despite a relatively clear thermodynamic understanding of the high-temperature-hydrogen-attack (HTHA) problem, the detailed fracture process on the microstructural length scales, however, remains elusive, and a quantitative assessment of the PVP lifetime under HTHA from the available creep fracture dataset is still not possible. This work develops a microstructure-informed and micromechanics-based model by incorporating a synergy between hydrogen transport and intergranular-cavity-based fracture process. Based on the available creep lifetime data of C-0.5Mo steels, we are able to calibrate material constitutive parameters, and then conduct nonlinear finite element simulations that reveal a real-time stress-induced hydrogen diffusional transport along grain boundaries, coupled with a microstructure-explicit failure process, from which Nelson curves can be computed. Such failure analyses allow us to delineate two distinct regimes on the Nelson curves, i.e., dislocation-creep-controlled or grain boundary diffusion-assisted cavity growth. More importantly, we found that a small change of the pipe thickness and applied stresses can significantly shift these lifetime curves. However, these two parameters are usually not provided in Nelson curves, thus limiting their usage in material selection and safety design. In conclusion, this discrepancy can clearly be mitigated by extensive parametric studies from our micromechanical modeling/simulation framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Rate of Penetration and Tripping Decision-Making using Real-Time Bit Wear Monitoring While Drilling Geothermal Wells

Understanding bit wear while drilling is critical to minimizing non-productive time (NPT) and optimizing rate of penetration (ROP). Lengthening drilling runs with damaged bits does not only lower the ROP, but also elevates the risk of inducing severe bit damage, which could potentially lead to time-consuming fishing operations. When drillers believe the bit has worn off substantially, the bit is tripped out to be replaced. On geothermal wells, tripping can take up to 20% of the overall well construction time, and this is generally acknowledged as an opportunity for improvement. Ideally, a bit run should be terminated before the bit is damaged beyond repair. At the same time, premature bit pulls are to be avoided as well. This study aims to leverage bit and tooth wear metrics that can be obtained in real time to characterize bit condition in order to optimize ROP and determine the optimal time to pull the bit. Two metrics were explored in this study: a bit wear metric that incorporated depth-of-cut, and a tooth wear metric developed by Bourgoyne & Young characterizing the state of bit teeth dull. Both metrics were computed using recorded data from 12¼ inches roller cone insert bit runs in five geothermal wells targeting a granodiorite formation in the western United States. Together with the actual dull grades, determined after the bits were pulled to surface, the metric trends were interpreted to characterize the downhole bit condition and identify the point at which the bit should have optimally been tripped out. The insights from studying the actual dull grades and how they relate to the two metrics were used to establish a reliable bit pull criterion. The bit wear metric trend correctly showed a noticeable departure from baseline for bits experiencing major dulling behavior. Additionally, the tooth wear model predicted the cutter dull within two dull grades for most runs, with better performance in predicting the inner teeth dull. Moreover, the combination of the bit wear and tooth wear metrics was effective in revealing the cause of the bit performance impairment. Proactive tracking of these two metrics in real-time can facilitate geothermal drilling ROP optimization and better-informed tripping decision-making, thereby avoiding wasted time and cost.

Ashari, Rahmat↗