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DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels

Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.

fuel design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Study of electron-induced chemical transformations in polymers

In extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photoresist exposure, the primary and secondary electrons drive chemistry rather than the EUV photons themselves. These electrons have a wide range of energies below approximately 80 eV, which are capable of complex network of reactions during exposure. To better understand the ability of electrons of different energies within the EUV primary and secondary electron range, we want to characterize and compare the chemistry induced in pure polymer films by direct exposure to electrons. Thin films of poly(tert-butyl methacrylate), poly(methyl methacrylate), and poly(4-hydroxystyrene) were exposed to a 20 to 80 eV electron beam. Outgassing during exposure was characterized in-situ using a quadrupole residual gas analyzer. The thickness changes were measured using ellipsometry and chemical bond structure data were collected using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) after exposure to compare different exposure conditions. Poly(4-hydroxystyrene) demonstrated stability during electron exposures. Exposures of the other two materials led to outgassing of protecting groups, the intensity of which decayed in time. Outgassing, FTIR, and thickness loss data exhibited approximately linear relationships to each other.

Mueller, Maximillian↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revealing the Reaction Path of UVC Bond Rupture in Cyclic Disulfides with Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

Disulfide bonds are ubiquitous molecular motifs that influence the tertiary structure and biological functions of many proteins. Yet it is well known that the disulfide bond is photolabile when exposed to UVC radiation. The deep-UV induced S-S bond fragmentation kinetics on very fast time scales are especially pivotal to fully understand the photostability and photodamage repair mechanisms in proteins. In 1,2-dithiane, the smallest saturated cyclic molecule that mimics biologically active species with S-S bonds, we investigate the photochemistry upon 200 nm excitation by femtosecond time-resolved X-ray scattering in the gas phase using an X-ray free electron laser. In the femtosecond time domain, we discover a very fast reaction that generates molecular fragments with one and two sulfur atoms. On picosecond and nanosecond timescales, a complex network of reactions unfolds that, ultimately, completes the sulfur dissociation from the parent molecule.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A simple and highly efficient protocol for 13 C-labeling of plant cell wall for structural and quantitative analyses via solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance

Plant cell walls are made of a complex network of interacting polymers that play a critical role in plant development and responses to environmental changes. Thus, improving plant biomass and fitness requires the elucidation of the structural organization of plant cell walls in their native environment. The 13 C-based multi-dimensional solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) has been instrumental in revealing the structural information of plant cell walls through 2D and 3D correlation spectral analyses. However, the requirement of enriching plants with 13 C limits the applicability of this method. To our knowledge, there is only a very limited set of methods currently available that achieve high levels of 13 C-labeling of plant materials using 13 CO 2 , and most of them require large amounts of 13 CO 2 in larger growth chambers. In this study, a simplified protocol for 13C-labeling of plant materials is introduced that allows ca 60% labeling of the cell walls, as quantified by comparison with commercially labeled samples. This level of 13 C-enrichment is sufficient for all conventional 2D and 3D correlation ssNMR experiments for detailed analysis of plant cell wall structure. The protocol is based on a convenient and easy setup to supply both 13 C-labeled glucose and 13 CO 2 using a vacuum-desiccator. The protocol does not require large amounts of 13 CO 2 . This study shows that our 13 C-labeling of plant materials can make the accessibility to ssNMR technique easy and affordable. The derived high-resolution 2D and 3D correlation spectra are used to extract structural information of plant cell walls. This helps to better understand the influence of polysaccharide-polysaccharide interaction on plant performance and allows for a more precise parametrization of plant cell wall models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Competition and cooperation: The plasticity of bacterial interactions across environments

Bacteria live in diverse communities, forming complex networks of interacting species. A central question in bacterial ecology is whether species engage in cooperative or competitive interactions. But this question often neglects the role of the environment. Here, we use genome-scale metabolic networks from two different open-access collections (AGORA and CarveMe) to assess pairwise interactions of different microbes in varying environmental conditions (provision of different environmental compounds). By computationally simulating thousands of environments for 10,000 pairs of bacteria from each collection, we found that most pairs were able to both compete and cooperate depending on the availability of environmental resources. This modeling approach allowed us to determine commonalities between environments that could facilitate the potential for cooperation or competition between a pair of species. Namely, cooperative interactions, especially obligate, were most common in less diverse environments. Further, as compounds were removed from the environment, we found interactions tended to degrade towards obligacy. However, we also found that on average at least one compound could be removed from an environment to switch the interaction from competition to facultative cooperation or vice versa. Together our approach indicates a high degree of plasticity in microbial interactions in response to the availability of environmental resources.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application Guide for the Cyber-Resilient Design Framework for Hybrid Systems

As the energy landscape evolves, hybrid power plants—integrating multiple renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind, and battery storage) with the bulk power electric system—play a crucial role in meeting growing energy demands. However, with a hybrid power plant’s increased number of components, complex network connectivity and digitization of controls, these systems face growing cybersecurity risks. To help mitigate these risks, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) presents this application guide specifically designed for operators and systems engineers to evaluate the cybersecurity resilience of their hybrid power plant’s design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

6G Sparse Transmitarray

This powerpoint presents a sparse transmitarray design for 6G technology. The proposed approach leverages aperiodic arrays with large inter-element spacings, offering grating lobe-free operation, enhanced gain, and narrow beamwidths. The transmitarray topology, designed for sub-THz and THz frequencies, simplifies feed-network complexity, and minimizes losses. Numerical analysis and full wave simulation results show this approach is feasible.

Christian, Thomas Edward↗

DOE OSTI2026

Firmware Tampering Detection in Heavy-Duty Vehicles through J1939 CAN Analysis

Modern heavy-duty vehicles rely on complex networks of Electronic Control Units (ECUs) that communicate using the J1939 protocol. While this system makes it easier to update and configure vehicle components, it also opens the door to serious cybersecurity risks if not properly secured. This work investigates the potential for firmware tampering through the J1939 communication protocol, which enables ECU configuration and reprogramming over the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. By monitoring CAN traffic during legitimate maintenance operations and reverse-engineering OEM diagnostic software, we identified common and proprietary J1939 message identifiers, authentication patterns, and vulnerabilities within Unified Diagnostic Services (UDS). These findings demonstrate that inadequate authentication mechanisms can allow malicious actors to alter ECU firmware or disable safety functions, posing severe operational and safety risks. Our analysis contributes to the development of vehicle intrusion detection systems capable of recognizing abnormal reprogramming activity and future firmware fingerprinting methods to verify software integrity across ECUs. This work highlights the importance of standardizing secure firmware authentication across manufacturers to strengthen cyber resilience in heavy-duty vehicle systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks for Prediction of Complex Chemistry in Water Treatment Process Optimization

Water chemistry plays a critical role in the design and operation of water treatment processes. Detailed chemistry modeling tools use a combination of advanced thermodynamic models and extensive databases to predict phase equilibria and reaction phenomena. The complexity and formulation of these models preclude their direct integration in equation-oriented modeling platforms, making it difficult to use their capabilities for rigorous water treatment process optimization. Neural networks (NN) can provide a pathway for integrating the predictive capability of chemistry software into equation-oriented models and enable optimization of complex water treatment processes across a broad range of conditions and process designs. Herein, we assess how NN architecture and training data impact their accuracy and use in equation-oriented water treatment models. We generate training data using PhreeqC software and determine how data generation and sample size impact the accuracy of trained NNs. The effect of NN architecture on optimization is evaluated by optimizing hypothetical black-box desalination processes using a range of feed compositions from USGS brackish water data set, tracking the number of successful optimizations, and testing the impact of initial guess on the final solution. Our results clearly demonstrate that data generation and architecture impact NN accuracy and viability for use in equation-oriented optimization problems.

Dudchenko, Alexander V↗

DOE OSTI2025

FlbB forms a distinctive ring essential for periplasmic flagellar assembly and motility in Borrelia burgdorferi

Spirochetes are a widespread group of bacteria with a distinct morphology. Some spirochetes are important human pathogens that utilize periplasmic flagella to achieve motility and host infection. The motors that drive the rotation of periplasmic flagella have a unique spirochete-specific feature, termed the collar, crucial for the flat-wave morphology and motility of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi. Here, we deploy cryo-electron tomography and subtomogram averaging to determine high-resolution in-situ structures of the B. burgdorferi flagellar motor. Comparative analysis and molecular modeling of in-situ flagellar motor structures from B. burgdorferi mutants lacking each of the known collar proteins (FlcA, FlcB, FlcC, FlbB, and Bb0236/FlcD) uncover a complex protein network at the base of the collar. Importantly, our data suggest that FlbB forms a novel periplasmic ring around the rotor but also acts as a scaffold supporting collar assembly and subsequent recruitment of stator complexes. The complex protein network based on the FlbB ring effectively bridges the rotor and 16 torque-generating stator complexes in each flagellar motor, thus contributing to the specialized motility and lifestyle of spirochetes in complex environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

rNets: a standalone package to visualize reaction networks

In the study of chemical processes, visualizing reaction networks is pivotal for identifying crucial compounds and transformations. Traditional methods, such as network schematics and reaction path linear plots, often struggle to effectively represent complex reaction networks due to their size and intricate connectivity. Alternatives capable of leading with complexity include graph methods, but they are not user-friendly, lacking simplicity and modularity, which hinders their integration with widely-used research software. This work introduces rNets an innovative tool designed for the efficient visualization of reaction networks with a user-friendly interface, modularity, and seamless integration with existing software packages. The effectiveness of rNets is demonstrated through its application in analyzing three catalytic reactions, showcasing its potential to significantly enhance research both in homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis fields. This tool not only simplifies the visualization process but also opens new avenues for exploring complex reaction networks in diverse research contexts.

Pablo-García, Sergio↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powers of magnetic graph matrix: Fourier spectrum, walk compression, and applications

Magnetic graphs, originally developed to model quantum systems under magnetic fields, have recently emerged as a powerful framework for analyzing complex directed networks. Existing research has primarily used the spectral properties of the magnetic graph matrix to study global and stationary network features. However, their capacity to model local, nonequilibrium behaviors, often described by matrix powers, remains largely unexplored. We present a combinatorial interpretation of the magnetic graph matrix powers through directed walk profiles—counts of graph walks indexed by the number of edge reversals. Crucially, we establish that walk profiles correspond to a Fourier transform of magnetic matrix powers. The connection allows exact reconstruction of walk profiles from magnetic matrix powers at multiple discrete potentials, and more importantly, an even smaller number of potentials often suffices for accurate approximate reconstruction in real networks. This shows the empirical compressibility of the information captured by the magnetic matrix. This fresh perspective suggests further applications; for example, we illustrate how powers of the magnetic matrix can identify frustrated directed cycles (e.g., feedforward loops) and can be effectively employed for link prediction by encoding local structural details in directed graphs.

complex networks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning without Global Optimization by Random Fourier Neural Networks

Here we introduce a new training algorithm for deep neural networks that utilize random complex exponential activation functions. Our approach employs a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure to iteratively train network layers, avoiding global and gradient-based optimization while maintaining error control. It consistently attains the theoretical approximation rate for residual networks with complex exponential activation functions, determined by network complexity. Additionally, it enables efficient learning of multiscale and high-frequency features, producing interpretable parameter distributions. Despite using sinusoidal basis functions, we do not observe Gibbs phenomena in approximating discontinuous target functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗