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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS Weather Data at Northwestern University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2025

DoE as a “Digital Innovation” Sponsor of the WCRP OSC2023 (Final Report)

The WCRP Open Science Conference (https://wcrp-osc2023.org/) was a once-in-a-decade opportunity to jointly explore the transformative actions urgently needed to ensure a sustainable future. Held in Kigali, Rwanda on October 23 -27, 2023, it showcased advances in climate science, helped identify gaps and opportunities, and provided a forum for communities to jointly develop future activities. Scientists, practitioners, politicians, policy makers, intergovernmental agencies and NGOs showcased their work, learned from each other, and explored new ways to work together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD 2022 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This report provides a detailed look at the scientific and technical activities for each of the LDRD projects funded by BNL in FY 2022, in fulfillment of that requirement. In FY 2022, the BNL LDRD Program funded 70 projects, 30 of which were new starts, at a total cost of $17.2M. The investments that BNL makes in its LDRD program support the Laboratory’s strategic goals. BNL has identified seven scientific initiatives that define the Laboratory’s scientific future and that will enable it to realize its overall vision. This requires simultaneous excellence in all aspects of BNL’s work – from science and operations, to external partnerships with the local, state, and national communities, and beyond. This is enabled by safe, efficient, and secure operations; by an unwavering commitment to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive environment, including workforce development, both with staff and reaching out to the community; and by a strong focus on renewed infrastructure. The seven scientific initiatives are: 1) Nuclear Physics: uncover the structure of visible matter by constructing and operating the Electron-Ion Collider at BNL to maintain international leadership in nuclear physics for decades; 2) Clean Energy and Climate: support a net-zero U.S. economy through fundamental research in basic energy and climate sciences to revolutionize grid-scale storage, renewable integration, and the study of atmospheric processes with a new facility to improve climate predictability; 3) Quantum Information Science and Technology: discover new quantum materials to enhance quantum computers and develop an entanglement sharing quantum network as a prototype for the first quantum internet; 4) Discovery Science Driven by the Human-AI Facility Integration: revolutionize the operation of experiments across the sciences at user facilities and in core programs; 5) High Energy Physics: understand the origin of space and time with the ATLAS high luminosity upgrade at CERN and the future Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment; 6) Isotope Production: accelerate and expand isotope production to ensure the security of the Nation’s supply; 7) Accelerator Science and Technology: harness the cross-cutting accelerator science expertise at BNL to develop new facilities, improve and expand its user facilities, and promote the use of accelerators in industry. The funded projects support BNL’s seven scientific initiatives and priority programs as well as new areas of research and competencies at the Laboratory that are consistent with the Laboratory’s vision and mission. In total, these LDRD investments supported 43 postdoctoral researchers in whole or in part and resulted in 138 publications and 7 awards. This Program Activities Report represents the future of BNL science; it is an impressive body of exploratory work that investigates many scientific and technical directions in support of the DOE and BNL missions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Science & Technology Review: Climate Change Comes into Focus

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world. The cover image shows a simulation run on the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) state-of-the-science Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM), which leverages DOE’s advanced supercomputers for climate and earth science research. As the article beginning on p. 4 describes, the newly released version 2 will be used to simulate aspects of Earth’s variability at weather-scale resolution and investigate decadal changes in climate that will critically impact the United States in coming years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building collaboration to advance our understanding of regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley

This project successfully achieved its central objective of building collaborative research capabilities at UC Merced, a Hispanic-Serving Institution, to advance understanding of the regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley. Through strategic partnerships with three DOE national laboratories (PNNL, LLNL, and LBNL), we developed critical expertise in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities. Among the project's scientific contributions, one key publication includes demonstrating that fallowed agricultural lands are the primary source of anthropogenic dust in California's Central Valley, with dust activities increasing substantially between 2008 and 2022, in correlation with drought severity and expanded fallowed land coverage. This finding suggests that current climate models, including E3SM, likely underestimate the dust burden due to inadequate representation of agricultural land-use changes. Beyond the scientific contributions, the project successfully trained a PhD student, established ongoing collaborations resulting in multiple manuscripts in preparation, and positioned UC Merced to participate in the DUSTIEAIM campaign for 2026-2027, thereby building sustainable research capacity while addressing climate science questions directly relevant to the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Forced Response of TOA Radiation by Learning the Pattern Effect

Abstract Predicting forced, long‐term radiative feedbacks from internal climate variability has been a decades‐long quest in climate science. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict annual‐ and global‐mean top of the atmosphere radiation anomalies from time‐varying maps of near‐surface temperature in climate models. Trained on internal variability alone, the nonlinear CNN can predict radiation under strong climate change, outperforms a regularized linear regression approach, and works within and across different climate models. We show with explainable artificial intelligence methods that the CNN draws predictive skill from physically meaningful regions but at much smaller spatial scales than currently assumed.

Rugenstein, Maria [Colorado State University Fort ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Partial Support of the Fast-Track Consensus Study on Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins (Final Report)

This study from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was launched to explore the foundational research gaps and opportunities for digital twins. As part of the information gathering process, the committee organized three targeted workshops—in engineering, climate sciences, and biomedical sciences—to better understand domain-specific nuances and barriers to developing digital twins. These sessions enabled cross-sector experts to surface field-specific needs, challenges, and open questions related to digital twins. Thousands of participants across multiple domains engaged in the discussions, which workshops were summarized in three separate Proceedings-in-Brief.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science

To address our climate emergency, “we must rapidly, radically reshape society”—Johnson & Wilkinson, All We Can Save. In science, reshaping requires formidable technical (cloud, coding, reproducibility) and cultural shifts (mindsets, hybrid collaboration, inclusion). We are a group of cross-government and academic scientists that are exploring better ways of working and not being too entrenched in our bureaucracies to do better science, support colleagues, and change the culture at our organizations. We share much-needed success stories and action for what we can all do to reshape science as part of the Open Science movement and 2023 Year of Open Science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs, numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes. These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation over Africa in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Abstract Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk‐aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

Sherwood, S. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗