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DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 3 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 3 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from January 16, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We determined that it would not be possible to pursue the project with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and then developed a revised science and operations plan to maximize the science using a commercial vessel within the budget that is available. We improved the scientific capability of the UT pressure core center by adding the ability to X-ray pressure cores, and the ability to cut and store multiple core samples for experimental analysis. We transferred pressure cores to peer institutions, including the National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) the United States Geological Survey (USGS Woods Hole). We made advances in understanding the composition and source of gasses locked in the methane hydrate from Green Canyon 955 (GC-955). We developed approaches to determine the in-situ salinity of hydrate-bearing samples, revealing that the in situ salinity of the GC 955 reservoir is just above that of seawater. We determined that the GC-955 hydrate reservoir is composed of sandy silt with a high concentration of hydrate interbedded with clayey silt with no hydrate present. We determined that some or all of the intervals bounding the hydrate reservoir are composed of material similar to the reservoir (sandy silt with hydrate and clayey silt with no hydrate), but with a lower net to gross. We determined that the reservoir effective permeability at a hydrate saturation of ~80-90 % is ~0.1 mD (or 1.0×10-16 m2) to ~0.5 mD (or 5.0×10-16 m2) and the intrinsic permeability is ~12 mD (or 1.2×10-14 m2). The GC-955 reservoir in-situ porosity of sandy silt is 0.38 to 0.40 and is largely independent of effective stress, and that the porosity of clayey silt is 0.33 at an in situ effective stress of 3.8 MPa to ~0.37 at zero effective stress. We developed a systematic, repeatable approach to studying hydrate reservoir properties by reconstituting individual lithofacies from dissociated pressure cores. We determined index properties of GC-955 reservoir, including liquid limit and plasticity, porosity, capillary behavior, and particle size distribution. We developed a more robust pressure coring technology. We finalized and published the UT-GOM2-1 Expedition Volume and we finalized a dedicated volume on the UT-GOM2-1 expedition that will be published in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin (AAPG) in spring 2020.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Community Input on the Need, Scope, and Development Roadmap of a Proposed National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crops Center (NVBBCC)

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) was awarded a pilot project in FY22 under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biopreparedness Research Virtual Environment (BRaVE) initiative, to define research priorities, needs, and requirements for a national virtual center devoted to the biosecurity of bioenergy crops. The mission of the proposed center, referred to as the National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crop Center (NVBBCC), would be to provide the scientific basis and tools to detect, characterize, model, and mitigate biothreats to bioenergy crops. This function will be essential to ensure the projected increased US reliance over the next few decades on key plant-based energy products, such as biojet fuel. The NVBBCC is envisioned as a distributed, virtual center with multiple national laboratories at its core to maximize the use of existing unique facilities and expertise across the DOE complex. A major goal of the pilot project was to develop a roadmap for establishing NVBBCC through a series of meetings to gather community input. A total of about 150 individuals, drawn from DOE laboratories, the USDA, academia, NIH, DHS and the private sector participated in six planning meetings held in FY23. Four of the meetings were focused on specific research topics (disease detection, dispersion and disease propagation, biomolecular characterization of plant-pathogen interaction, and mitigation strategies). These four meetings were followed by a meeting that focused on computational needs to support collaborative, data-intensive research within a distributed center as well as workforce development. A final meeting focused on establishing and maintaining preparedness within NVBBCC to respond to an emerging disease within bioenergy crops and how it would collaborate and coordinate with USDA and DHS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Packaging Plan for Mark-18A Plutonium Oxide

Mark-18A (Mk-18A) targets were irradiated at the Savannah River Site and have been in wet storage at the site since the 1970s. The Mk-18A Target Material Recovery Program has been established to recover the 244 Pu and heavy curium (≥50% 246 Cm and 248 Cm) in the targets at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and ship the materials to Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Radiochemical Engineering Development Center for programmatic use. Two products will be recovered from the Mk- 18A targets for shipment from SRNL to ORNL: a plutonium oxide stream and an oxide material that will contain the americium, curium, and lanthanides. This document presents the plan for packaging of the plutonium oxide material for shipment and storage at ORNL.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Development of an MKID frequency-to-pixel LED mapper for SPT-3G+

SPT-3G+ is the next-generation camera for the South Pole Telescope (SPT). SPT is designed to measure the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the mm/sub-mm sky. The planned focal plane consists of 34,000 microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), divided among three observing bands centered at 220, 285, and 345 GHz. Each readout line is designed to measure 800 MKIDs over a 500 MHz bandwidth, which places stringent constraints on the accuracy of the frequency placement required to limit resonator collisions that reduce the overall detector yield. To meet this constraint, we are developing a two-step process that first optically maps the resonance to a physical pixel location, and then next trims the interdigitated capacitor (IDC) to adjust the resonator frequency. We present a cryogenic LED apparatus operable at 300 mK for the optical illumination of SPT-3G+ detector arrays. We demonstrate integration of the LED controls with the GHz readout electronics (RF-ICE) to take data on an array of prototype SPT-3G+ detectors. We show that this technique is useful for characterizing defects in the resonator frequency across the detector array and will allow for improvements in the detector yield.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High Explosive Testing Capabilities at Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) [Slides]

LANL is a non-profit Federally Funded Research & Development Center (FFRDC). LANL’s Integrated Weapons Experiments (J) Division addresses national security challenges by executing largescale, integrated, focused experiments, and tests of engineered devices and systems. J-NV plans, fields, and executes dynamic high explosive experiments at NNSS. This includes sub-critical experiments involving special nuclear material, as well as small- and largescale non-nuclear experiments. J-NV generates, analyzes, and disseminates unique, high-quality data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A study of sacrificial mirrors for use prior to a laser wakefield accelerator driven by the Z-Petawatt laser

Many experiments at Sandia’s Z Pulsed Power Facility require x-ray backlighting diagnostics to understand experiment performance. Due to limitations in present-day source/detection modalities, most x-ray diagnostics at Z are restricted to photon energies <20 keV, ultimately limiting the density, amount, and atomic number of targets diagnosable in experiments. These limitations force the use of low-Z materials like Beryllium, and they prevent acquisition of important backlighting data for materials/densities that are opaque to soft x-rays and where background emission from the Z load and transmission lines overwhelm diagnostics. In this LDRD project, we have investigated the design and development of a laser wakefield acceleration platform driven by the Z-Petawatt laser – a platform that would enable the generation of a pulsed, collimated beam of high energy x-rays up to 100 keV. Geometrical considerations for implementation on the Z Machine require the use of sacrificial mirrors, which have been tested in offline experiments in the Chama target chamber in building 983. Our results suggest the use of sacrificial mirrors would not necessarily inhibit the laser wakefield x-ray process, particularly with the benefits stemming from planned laser upgrades. These conclusions support the continuation of laser wakefield source research and the development of the necessary infrastructure to deliver the Z-Petawatt laser to the Z center section along the appropriate lines of sight. Ultimately, this new capability will provide unprecedented views through dense states of matter, enabling the use of previously incompatible target materials/designs, and uncovering a new set of observables accessible through diffraction and spectroscopy in the hard x-ray regime. These will amplify the data return on precious Z shots and enhance Sandia’s ability to investigate fundamental physics in support of national security.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Quantifying CO 2 Plume Stabilization at Carbon Storage Projects, North Dakota, USA

This study presents an approach for quantifying when injected carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stabilizes pursuant to carbon capture and storage (CCS) project permitting and site closure requirements. The distribution of mobile-phase CO 2 (CO 2 plume) will evolve within the storage reservoir during and after injection through both physical and chemical trapping mechanisms. CCS policies generally agree that the CO 2 plume’s migratory behavior in post-injection should demonstrate nonendangerment to the environment but do not provide specific guidance on how to meet the definition of plume stabilization, generating some uncertainty for operators. Plume stability herein means the CO 2 plume 1) changes size minimally and predictably in the storage reservoir such that it will not cross key boundaries identified in the permit and 2) does not pose a threat to human health, underground sources of drinking water (USDWs), and the environment because of lateral migration to areas where leakage pathways may exist. Published literature on plume metrics was reviewed to determine which metric(s) may be most appropriate for determining CO 2 plume stability. A technical approach that defines plume stabilization by estimating the rate of change in the geographic footprint of the CO 2 plume with respect to time was developed and illustrated using a case study from North Dakota, USA, as a proposed solution for CCS operators to apply at the project permitting stage. Any prospective CCS operator may benefit from using the same approach to inform the selection of pore space lease and monitoring areas and develop post-injection site care plans.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Advancing equitable value chains for the global hydrogen economy

Hydrogen is a rapidly growing focus for countries seeking to develop green industries, but there are many questions about how the nascent global hydrogen economy will develop, and what this implies for equitable sharing of benefits and burdens between nations. In this perspective we summarize emerging trends in national hydrogen strategies and develop recommendations for researchers and policymakers to center equity in hydrogen development. This will require integrating innovation and development perspectives on international technology transfer, developing more detailed representation of hydrogen trade in systems models, building equity considerations into national and international planning processes, and establishing robust technology transfer efforts. In conclusion, policymakers will also need to grapple with the difficulties of verifying life cycle emissions of hydrogen if hydrogen trade emerges as a significant trend, potentially requiring new methods of emissions accounting and trade reforms that prioritize international equity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Flexibility-Environmental Outcomes Tradeoffs Workshop Report and Research Roadmap

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Norway’s Royal Ministry of Petroleum and Energy signed an Annex to a previously signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) in February 2020 to collaborate on hydropower research and development (R&D). This MOU Annex has brought together the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Water Power Technology Office and the Norwegian Research Center for Hydropower Technology (HydroCen) to plan and coordinate hydropower R&D activities to increase our understanding of hydropower’s role in the future energy grid and how to minimize and mitigate the subsequent environmental impacts. As part of this MOU Annex, hydropower researchers from the U.S. and Norway have come together to conduct collaborative research on hydropower markets and value, hydropower plant capabilities and constraints, monitoring and control technologies, environmental design solutions, environmental impacts and tradeoffs, flexible operation and planning, and technology innovations. This report presents background information on hydropower environmental regulation in the U.S. and Norway and summarizes content and conclusions from this series of two, three-hour workshops on hydropower generation flexibility and environmental outcomes, that included structured discussions used to identify research priorities and collaborative research opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Developing Scenario‐Based Strategies for Health, Climate, and Environmental Preparedness: The One Health, One Earth Approach

Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.

Abadi, Azar M. [University of Alabama, Birmingham,↗

Alternative Fuels Data Center

This presentation provides an overview of the Alternative Fuels Data Center for the 2026 Transportation Technologies Annual Merit Review, including project objectives, milestone, approach to developing and maintaining the website, project accomplishments and progress, and collaboration with other national labs and external partners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advances on CHP District Energy and Microgrids Deployment: Simplified Tool for Rapidly Deploying Feasibility Analytics for the Non-Technical User (Final Technical Report)

Community energy systems have proven to have the potential to improve cost efficiency, resilience, and decarbonize. However, investing in community energy systems such as community microgrids or district energy systems is a complex decision due to the high initial investment and the uncertainties associated with the long development time and lifecycle of the project. Tools that make feasibility assessments accessible to non-technical users like investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders will result in more feasibility analyses completed, more candidate projects identified, and more community energy systems deployed. The pilot tool developed under this award is named Energy Fellow. Energy Fellow allows technical and non-technical users to complete feasibility analyses for district energy systems and community microgrids. This is the first software tool of its kind designed for non-technical users and available at no cost. Its scope was adjusted to a 25x25-mile region within the Houston area in Texas to make its development compatible with the funding available. However, the findings and models developed make this pilot tool easily scalable to the US. The lessons learned during the design, implementation, and testing stages have helped find trade-off solutions to software and hardware challenges related to implementing 3D models in online tools. Green software strategies has been successfully applied to the design and operations of the tool, and the team has researched the aspects of the (non-technical) user experience that will make commercial developments of this tool even more impactful.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Roadmap to an electron beam or X-ray center for industrial applications

Here, this paper introduces the topics that need consideration to allow an effective feasibility analysis of electron beams and/or X-rays technologies prior to potential investment and implementation of these technologies for industrial applications. It also highlights considerations for planning, developing and construction of an electron beam or X-ray facility The focus of this paper is on business topics and it provides details of where additional technical information can be found. The paper also describes current applications for electron beam and X-ray technologies to demonstrate their potential.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Multi-omics Characterization of the Host Response to COVID-19

This project is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between investigators at PNNL with expertise in mass spectrometry (MS)-based omics technology development, omics measurement methods development and application, statistics, machine learning and integration of disparate datasets for a systems-level understanding, and expertise in pathogenic coronaviruses, and investigators at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison) with expertise in pathogenic respiratory viruses (e.g. influenza). The goal of this project is to obtain a comprehensive picture of the human host factors critical for the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will generate broad untargeted multi-omics profiles using both state-of-the-art and novel instrumentation and approaches to enable the identification of the molecular mechanisms and host response pathways that impact human COVID-19 outcomes. We anticipate these results will lead to the generation of biomarker panels that are predictive of disease outcomes and mechanistic hypotheses that can be further interrogated in future studies and will provide the basis for vaccine or therapeutic development. To do so, we are obtaining and analyzing blood samples from COVID-19 patients with a range of disease outcomes that were treated at the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Tokyo, Japan and other collaborating hospitals in our network. Specifically, this project will fund proteomics and metabolomics analyses of clinical COVID samples, machine learning-based integration of the data, and pathway-based interpretation of the data. This project was funded in June 2020. In the time span of June to September 2020, the project team developed an analytically and statistically robust analysis plan and made various preparations to facilitate sample receipt from our UW-Madison collaborators. This included blocking and randomization of sample prep orders, ordering of reagents and reference materials, and shipping of materials needed for preparation of the samples under BSL3 conditions to our collaborators at UW-Madison. As of FY21, this project has been picked up via a sponsor, the Naval Medical Research Center, which will cover the remainder of the proposed scope of work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

2024 Water Splitting Technologies Benchmarking and Protocols Workshop

The sixth annual Advanced Water Splitting Pathways Benchmarking meeting was held on June 11-12, 2024 at the Arizona State University California Center- Los Angeles, CA. A total of 117 people participated (102 in person and 15 via Zoom). Attendance at most breakout sessions ranged from 10 - 25 attendees. The focus of many of the sessions was on developing plans to validate protocols written to date, defining future protocols to be written and aligning with international efforts. The plenary session provided perspectives on international activities in each technology area, as well as an overview of the ARCHES Hydrogen Hub.

08 HYDROGEN↗