Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cash Flow”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rooftop Solar in Lawrence, MA: Community Perspectives, Deceptive Practices, and Financing Options

This report was prepared as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) pilot competitive technical assistance for the Lawrence Massachusetts Stakeholder Coalition (LSC) composed of The City of Lawrence, All In Energy, MassDevelopment, Mill City Community Investments, BlocPower and Groundwork Lawrence, and led by Browning the Green Space. The LSC identified rooftop solar photovoltaics as a top priority for this technical assistance opportunity. Lawrence faces high energy burden and electricity prices, thus rooftop solar can be a tool to help lower those costs. However, the coalition received feedback that some solar companies were using deceptive and unfair practices when marketing, selling, or financing solar energy, costing residents more money than utility rates and increasing the energy burden. This project sought to address rooftop solar community priorities through two pathways: 1. facilitating community engagement to understand community perspectives and experiences with rooftop solar development; and 2. conducting a financial cash-flow analysis highlighting the varying fiscal outcomes for rooftop solar adopters based off rooftop solar leasing, ownership, or buying electricity from the utility (National Grid).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lifecycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochar Pellet Production from Forest Residues and Field Application

Biochar produced from low-value forest biomass can provide substantial benefits to ecosystems and mitigate climate change-induced risks such as forest fires. Forest residues from restoration activities and timber harvest and biochar itself are bulky and thus incur high logistic costs, so are considered major bottlenecks for the commercialization of the biochar industry. The objectives of this study were to assess the environmental footprints and techno-economic feasibility of converting forest residues in Pacific Northwest United States into biochar pellets using portable systems followed by delivery of the final product to end-users for land application (dispersion). Two portable systems (Biochar Solutions Incorporated (BSI) and Air Curtain Burner (ACB)) were considered for biochar production. A cradle-to-grave lifecycle assessment (LCA) and a discounted cash flow analysis method were used to quantify the environmental impacts and minimum selling price (MSP) of biochar. The global warming (GW) impact of biochar production through BSI and ACB was estimated to be 306–444, and 750–1016 kgCO₂eq/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. The MSP of biochar produced through BSI and ACB was 1674–1909 and 528–1051 USD/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. Pelletizing of biochar reduced GW impacts during outbound logistics (~8–20%) but increased emissions during pelletizing (~1–9%). Results show the BSI system was a more viable option in terms of GW impact, whereas the ACB system can produce biochar with lower MSP. The results of the study conclude that the production of biochar pellets through the two portable systems and applied to fields can be both an environmentally beneficial and economically viable option.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Chemical Heat Pump with Nuclear Reactor for Temperature Amplification by Delivering Process Heat and Electricity: A Techno-Economic Analysis

The energy economy is continually evolving in response to socio-political factors in the nature of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms, such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors. Nuclear energy has a crucial role to play in the evolution of energy economy due to its clean and non-carbon-emitting characteristics. A techno-economic analysis was undertaken to establish the viability of selling heat along with electricity for an advanced 100 MWth small modular reactor (SMR) and four nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) configurations featuring the SMR paired with chemical heat pump (ChHP) systems providing a thermal output ranging from 1 to 50 MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow rate of return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for these systems for different regions of U.S. reflecting a range of electricity and thermal energy costs. The analysis indicated that selling heat to high temperature industrial processes showed profitable outcomes compared to the sale of only electricity. Higher carbon taxes improved the economic parameters of the NHES alternatives significantly. Providing heat to high temperature industries could be very beneficial, helping to cut down the greenhouse gases emission by reducing the fossil fuel consumption.

Gupta, Aman↗
NASA NTRS1972

Basic Finance

A discussion of the basic measures of corporate financial strength, and the sources of the information is reported. Considered are: balance sheet, income statement, funds and cash flow, and financial ratios.

Vittek, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The cost of energy from utility-owned solar electric systems. A required revenue methodology for ERDA/EPRI evaluations

This methodology calculates the electric energy busbar cost from a utility-owned solar electric system. This approach is applicable to both publicly- and privately-owned utilities. Busbar cost represents the minimum price per unit of energy consistent with producing system-resultant revenues equal to the sum of system-resultant costs. This equality is expressed in present value terms, where the discount rate used reflects the rate of return required on invested capital. Major input variables describe the output capabilities and capital cost of the energy system, the cash flows required for system operation amd maintenance, and the financial structure and tax environment of the utility.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Study of an advanced General Aviation Turbine Engine (GATE)

The best technology program for a small, economically viable gas turbine engine applicable to the general aviation helicopter and aircraft market for 1985-1990 was studied. Turboshaft and turboprop engines in the 112 to 746 kW (150 to 1000 hp) range and turbofan engines up to 6672 N (1500 lbf) thrust were considered. A good market for new turbine engines was predicted for 1988 providing aircraft are designed to capitalize on the advantages of the turbine engine. Parametric engine families were defined in terms of design and off-design performance, mass, and cost. These were evaluated in aircraft design missions selected to represent important market segments for fixed and rotary-wing applications. Payoff parameters influenced by engine cycle and configuration changes were aircraft gross mass, acquisition cost, total cost of ownership, and cash flow. Significant advantage over a current technology, small gas turbine engines was found especially in cost of ownership and fuel economy for airframes incorporating an air-cooled high-pressure ratio engine. A power class of 373 kW (500 hp) was recommended as the next frontier for technology advance where large improvements in fuel economy and engine mass appear possible through component research and development.

Gill, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 4: Future requirements of dedicated freighter aircraft to year 2008

The 1978 fleet operations are extended to the year 1992, thus providing an evaluation of current aircraft types in meeting the ensuing increased market demand. Possible changes in the fleet mix and the resulting economic situation are defined in terms of the number of units of each type aircraft and the resulting growth in operational frequency. Among the economic parameters considered are the associated investment required by the airline, the return on investment to the airline, and the accompanying levels of cash flow and operating income. Against this background the potential for a derivative aircraft to enter fleet operations in 1985 is defined as a function of payload size and as affected by 1980 technology. In a similar manner, the size and potential for a new dedicated 1990 technology, freighter aircraft to become operational in 1995 is established. The resulting aircraft and fleet operational and economic characteristics are evaluated over the period 1994 to 2008. The impacts of restricted growth in operational frequency, reduced market demand, variations in aircraft configurations, and military participation, are assessed.

Burby, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Economics of hydrogen production and liquefaction updated to 1980

Revised costs for generating and liquefying hydrogen in mid-1980 are presented. Plant investments were treated as straight-forward escalations resulting from inflation. Operating costs, however, were derived in terms of the unit cost of coal, fuel gas and electrical energy to permit the determination of the influence of these parameters on the cost of liquid hydrogen. Inflationary influence was recognized by requiring a 15% discounted rate of return on investment for Discounted Cash Flow financing analysis, up from 12% previously. Utility financing was revised to require an 11% interest rate on debt. The scope of operation of the hydrogen plant was revised from previous studies to include only the hydrogen generation and liquefaction facilities. On-site fuel gas and power generation, originally a part of the plant complex, was eliminated. Fuel gas and power are now treated as purchased utilities. Costs for on-site generation of fuel gas however, are included.

Baker, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Computer Program for Assessing the Economic Feasibility of Solar Energy for Single Family Residences and Light Commercial Applications

Computer program, SHCOST, was used to perform economic analyses of operational test sites. The program allows consideration of the economic parameters which are important to the solar system user. A life cycle cost and cash flow comparison is made between a solar heating system and a conventional system. The program assists in sizing the solar heating system. A sensitivity study and plot capability allow the user to select the most cost effective system configuration.

Forney, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Optimization of space manufacturing systems

Four separate analyses are detailed: transportation to low earth orbit, orbit-to-orbit optimization, parametric analysis of SPS logistics based on earth and lunar source locations, and an overall program option optimization implemented with linear programming. It is found that smaller vehicles are favored for earth launch, with the current Space Shuttle being right at optimum payload size. Fully reusable launch vehicles represent a savings of 50% over the Space Shuttle; increased reliability with less maintenance could further double the savings. An optimization of orbit-to-orbit propulsion systems using lunar oxygen for propellants shows that ion propulsion is preferable by a 3:1 cost margin over a mass driver reaction engine at optimum values; however, ion engines cannot yet operate in the lower exhaust velocity range where the optimum lies, and total program costs between the two systems are ambiguous. Heavier payloads favor the use of a MDRE. A parametric model of a space manufacturing facility is proposed, and used to analyze recurring costs, total costs, and net present value discounted cash flows. Parameters studied include productivity, effects of discounting, materials source tradeoffs, economic viability of closed-cycle habitats, and effects of varying degrees of nonterrestrial SPS materials needed from earth. Finally, candidate optimal scenarios are chosen, and implemented in a linear program with external constraints in order to arrive at an optimum blend of SPS production strategies in order to maximize returns.

Akin, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Study of component technologies for fuel cell on-site integrated energy systems

Heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment are integrated with three types of fuel cells. System design and computer simulations are developed to utilize the thermal energy discharge of the fuel in the most cost effective manner. The fuel provides all of the electric needs and a loss of load probability analysis is used to ensure adequate power plant reliability. Equipment cost is estimated for each of the systems analyzed. A levelized annual cost reflecting owning and operating costs including the cost of money was used to select the most promising integrated system configurations. Cash flows are presented for the most promising 16 systems. Several systems for the 96 unit apartment complex (a retail store was also studied) were cost competitive with both gas and electric based conventional systems. Thermal storage is shown to be beneficial and the optimum absorption chiller sizing (waste heat recovery) in connection with electric chillers are developed. Battery storage was analyzed since the system is not electric grid connected. Advanced absorption chillers were analyzed as well. Recommendations covering financing, technical development, and policy issues are given to accelerate the commercialization of the fuel cell for on-site power generation in buildings.

Lee, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Study of component technologies for fuel cell on-site integrated energy system. Volume 2: Appendices

This data base catalogue was compiled in order to facilitate the analysis of various on site integrated energy system with fuel cell power plants. The catalogue is divided into two sections. The first characterizes individual components in terms of their performance profiles as a function of design parameters. The second characterizes total heating and cooling systems in terms of energy output as a function of input and control variables. The integrated fuel cell systems diagrams and the computer analysis of systems are included as well as the cash flows series for baseline systems.

Lee, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Satellite servicing: A business opportunity?

The possibilities of satellite servicing as a business opportunity are examined. The service rate which a user must be charged to yield a reasonable return is derived and then compared against the market's willingness to pay that rate. Steps taken to provide the basis from which the service rate could be derived include: (1) constructing a hypothetical on orbit servicing business offering both on orbit and associated ground services; (2) estimating the total on orbit service business potential by analyzing mission models to the year 2000; and (3) setting up ground rules to bound the conduct of the business. Using this basic information service demand (business volume) cost to set up the business, costs for operation and maintenance tax rates and desired rate of return are estimated to determine the user charge. Sensitivity of the service rate to various parameters are also assessed. The time span for the business venture runs from 1986 through 2000 with service to 1991 provided via the orbiter and by a space station beyond 1991. This point analysis shows about five years of negative cash flow, with steady profits thereafter.

Wong, R. E.↗