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DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Capacity and Coulombic Efficiency Measurements Underestimate the Rate of SEI Growth in Silicon Anodes

Capacity measurements and related quantities are the first layer of information acquired during testing of Li-ion cells. It is generally considered that elevated values of coulombic efficiency and capacity retention are absolute indicators of the existence of a stable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Here, we challenge this notion by analyzing how the effect of side reactions on cell capacity depends on the choice of electrodes. More specifically, we demonstrate that the extent of measurable capacity fade due to SEI growth is modulated by the shape of the voltage profile of the cathode and anode at the end of charge and discharge half-cycles. This shape-dependency creates a mismatch between SEI growth and cell capacity loss, which is relatively small for graphite anodes but sizable for silicon-containing electrodes. We illustrate this point by showing that, at the same coulombic efficiency and capacity retention, cells containing silicon-based materials could actually exhibit rates of SEI growth that are as much as ≥ 40% higher than graphite cells. The main implication of this behavior is that, for certain systems, capacity measurements may be an unreliable source of information about the extent of reactions at the SEI, allowing other consequences of these side reactions (such as electrolyte depletion) to proceed unchecked while the cell appears to be stable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Mechanism Behind Sudden Capacity Loss in Lithium Metal Batteries

Rechargeable Li-metal batteries (LMBs) are attractive energy storage candidates for electric vehicles (EVs) because they offer higher energy density than batteries built with intercalation electrodes. However, one of the main barriers to the commercial deployment of LMBs has been their relatively short cycle life. Re-designing the electrolyte system shows promise in achieving acceptable cycle life, but even so, the resulting cells display a challenging end-of-life (EOL) behavior: a sudden capacity loss. Herein, we report a new method for analyzing voltage profiles during cycling to distinguish between the capacity loss originating from the loss of cathode capacity vs growth in cell resistance. Further, this analysis reveals that sudden capacity loss was preceded by acceleration in the rate of growth of cell resistance, and cycling of multiple cells showed that this phenomenon is sensitive to the initial quantity of electrolyte in the cells. In contrast, the cathode capacity degraded at a constant rate independent of the electrolyte quantity. Combining this evidence with post-analysis of harvested electrolyte and electrodes, we conclude that neither the loss of active lithium nor the loss of active cathode material was the primary source of sudden capacity loss; instead, consumption and decomposition of electrolyte causes the drastic capacity loss at EOL.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stable Cycling of Sodium All‐Solid‐State Batteries with High‐Capacity Cathode Presodiation

Sodium all-solid-state batteries (NaSSBs) with an alloy-type anode (e.g., Sn and Sb) offer superior capacity and energy density compared to hard carbon anode. However, the irreversible loss of Na + at the alloy anode during the initial cycle results in diminished capacity and stability, impairing full-cell performance. Here, this study presents an easy-to-implement cathode presodiation strategy by employing a Na-rich material to address these challenges. Leveraging the high theoretical capacity and suitable voltage window, Na 2 S is chosen as the Na donor, which is activated by creating a mixed electron-ion conducting network, delivering a high capacity of 511.7 mAh g −1 . By adding a small amount (i.e., 3 wt.%) of Na 2 S to the cathode composite, a NaCrO 2 || Sn full cell demonstrated capacity improvement from 90.8 to 118.2 mAh g −1 (based on cathode mass). The capacity-balanced full cell can thus cycle to more than 300 times with >90% capacity retention. This work provides a practical solution to enhance the full-cell performance and advance the transformation from half-cell to full-cell applications of NaSSBs.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Porous and Amorphous Mn x Mo 3 S 13 Chalcogel Electrode for High-Capacity Conversion-Based Lithium-Ion Batteries

While Li-ion batteries (LIBs) are a leading energy storage technology, their energy densities are limited by the low capacity of conventional intercalation cathodes, driving interest in high energy-density Li–S batteries that make use of conversion chemistry. Achieving high capacity, reversibility, and cycle stability, and controlling volume changes in conversion batteries during the charge–discharge process, however, remains challenging. Here, in this study, we present a porous, amorphous, sulfide-based Mn x Mo 3 S 13 chalcogel, which concurrently offers high capacity and cycle stability. The solution-processable room temperature synthesized Mn x Mo 3 S 13 (x = 0.25) chalcogel exhibits a local structure that resembles the Mo 3 S 13 cluster with Mn 2+ distributed across the Mo 3 S 13 matrix, as determined by synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function (PDF) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS). Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations reveal that Mn 2+ incorporation shortens the polysulfide chain in the gel matrix compared to the Mo 3 S 13 chalcogel, while forming a coordination environment with disulfide groups, analogous to the experimental findings. A Li/Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 half-cell delivers 897 mAh g –1 capacity during the first discharge and retains 571 mAh g –1 capacity after 100 cycles at a C/3 rate. Distribution of relaxation time (DRT) unveils a stable solid–electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation upon cycling that enables charge–discharge reversibility. Here, the enhanced capacity retention and cycle stability compared to those of the Li/Mo 3 S 13 cell are attributed to the reduced dissolution of active mass into the electrolyte, facilitated by the formation of shorter polysulfide chains within the Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 structure and the strong affinity of Lewis-acidic Mn 2+ for polysulfide anions generated during the charge–discharge process of the Li/Mn 0.25 Mo 3 S 13 cell. Thus, this work illustrates a design principle of material for high-capacity and cycle-stable Li-metal sulfide batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global stocks and capacity of mineral-associated soil organic carbon

Abstract Soil is the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon and is central for climate change mitigation and carbon-climate feedbacks. Chemical and physical associations of soil carbon with minerals play a critical role in carbon storage, but the amount and global capacity for storage in this form remain unquantified. Here, we produce spatially-resolved global estimates of mineral-associated organic carbon stocks and carbon-storage capacity by analyzing 1144 globally-distributed soil profiles. We show that current stocks total 899 Pg C to a depth of 1 m in non-permafrost mineral soils. Although this constitutes 66% and 70% of soil carbon in surface and deeper layers, respectively, it is only 42% and 21% of the mineralogical capacity. Regions under agricultural management and deeper soil layers show the largest undersaturation of mineral-associated carbon. Critically, the degree of undersaturation indicates sequestration efficiency over years to decades. We show that, across 103 carbon-accrual measurements spanning management interventions globally, soils furthest from their mineralogical capacity are more effective at accruing carbon; sequestration rates average 3-times higher in soils at one tenth of their capacity compared to soils at one half of their capacity. Our findings provide insights into the world’s soils, their capacity to store carbon, and priority regions and actions for soil carbon management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Heat capacity of microgram oxide samples by fast scanning calorimetry

Quantitative scanning calorimetry on microgram-sized samples opens a broad, new range of opportunities for studying the thermodynamic properties of quantity-limited materials, including those produced under extreme conditions or found as rare accessory minerals in nature. We calibrated the Mettler Toledo Flash DSC 2+ calorimeter to obtain quantitative heat capacities in the range 200–350 °C, using samples weighing between 2 and 11.5 μg. Our technique is applied to a new set of oxide materials to which it has never been used before, without the need for melting, glass transitions, or phase transformations. Heat capacity data were obtained for silica in the high pressure stishovite (rutile) structure, dense post-stishovite glass, standard fused quartz, and for TiO2 rutile. These heat capacities agree within 5%–15% with the literature values reported for rutile, stishovite, and fused SiO2 glass. The heat capacity of post-stishovite glass, made by heating stishovite to 1000 °C, is a newly reported value. After accurate calibrations, measured heat capacities were then used to calculate masses for samples in the microgram range, a substantial improvement over measurement in conventional microbalances, which have uncertainties approaching 50%–100% for such small samples. Since the typical uncertainty of heat capacities measured on 10–100 mg samples in conventional differential scanning calorimetry is typically 7% (1%–5% with careful work), flash differential scanning calorimetry, using samples a factor of 1000 smaller, increases the uncertainty of heat capacity measurements by a factor of <3, opening the door for meaningful measurements on ultra-small, high-pressure samples and other quantity-limited materials.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Capacities of Entanglement Distribution From a Central Source

Distribution of entanglement is an essential task in quantum information processing and the realization of quantum networks. In our work, we theoretically investigate the scenario where a central source prepares an N -partite entangled state and transmits each entangled subsystem to one of N receivers through noisy quantum channels. The receivers are then able to perform local operations assisted by unlimited classical communication to distill target entangled states from the noisy channel output. In this operational context, we define the EPR distribution capacity and the GHZ distribution capacity of a quantum channel as the largest rates at which Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) states and Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states can be faithfully distributed through the channel, respectively. We establish lower and upper bounds on the EPR distribution capacity by connecting it with the task of assisted entanglement distillation. We also construct an explicit protocol consisting of a combination of a quantum communication code and a classical-post-processing-assisted entanglement generation code, which yields a simple achievable lower bound for generic channels. As applications of these results, we give an exact expression for the EPR distribution capacity over two erasure channels and bounds on the EPR distribution capacity over two generalized amplitude damping channels. We also bound the GHZ distribution capacity, which results in an exact characterization of the GHZ distribution capacity when the most noisy channel is a dephasing channel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capacity Fade of Graphite/NMC811: Influence of Particle Morphology, Electrolyte, and Charge Voltage

LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) is an important Li-ion battery cathode material; however, there is a tradeoff between delivered capacity and capacity retention. As the charge potential increases the capacity rises but at the expense of capacity retention. The decrease in capacity retention has been ascribed to several factors including particle cracking, surface reconstruction, transition metal dissolution, and electrolyte reactivity. The present study compares 4.1 and 4.3 V charging limits in commercially relevant graphite/NMC811 pouch cells for single crystal (SC) and polycrystalline (PC) NMC811 with ethylene carbonate (EC)-containing or EC-free electrolytes. The electrochemistry is rationalized through analysis of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, positive electrode X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and negative electrode mapping by X-ray fluorescence. Graphite/SC-NMC811 cells show high-capacity retention at 4.1 V but exhibit degradation at 4.3 V charging potentials. The EC-free electrolyte cells led to higher capacity fade, especially when charged to 4.3 V. Cathode dissolution and deposition on the negative electrode from PC-NMC811 cells was higher than for samples from SC-NMC811 cells. This study reveals the impact of material type, charge voltage, and electrolyte composition on the reactions at the positive electrode, their influence on the negative electrode, and evolution with cycle number.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Capacity – What is it, what determines it, does one number work, and how does it relate to electric vehicles?

Grid capacity is effectively how much power the system can reliably deliver, whether that is to serve loads (load service capacity) or accept generation (hosting capacity). Grid capacity can also mean different things at different scales. On the whole power system, grid capacity may be the maximum amount of power generation available. For a specific region, grid capacity may be limited by how much power the transmission and distribution lines can safely carry to that region. At the feeder level, it may be how much photovoltaic generation can be included before reliability or operations are impacted. At the end-use or residential level, grid capacity may be the size of the service breaker for that house.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Novel One-Step Production of Carbon-Coated Sn Nanoparticles for High-Capacity Anodes in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion batteries offer the highest energy density of any currently available portable energy storage technology. By using different anode materials, these batteries could have an even greater energy density. One material, tin, has a theoretical lithium capacity (994 mAh/g) over three-times higher than commercial carbon anode materials. Unfortunately, to achieve this high capacity, bulk tin undergoes a large volume expansion, and the material pulverizes during cycling, giving a rapid capacity fade. To mitigate this issue, tin must be scaled down to the nano-level to take advantage of unique micromechanics at the nanoscale. Synthesis techniques for Sn nanoparticle anodes are costly and overly complicated for commercial production. A novel one-step process for producing carbon-coated Sn nanoparticles via spark plasma erosion (SPE) shows great promise as a simple, inexpensive production method. The SPE method, characterization of the resulting particles, and their high-capacity reversible electrochemical performance as anodes are described. With only a 10% addition of these novel SPE carbon-coated Sn particles, one anode composition demonstrated a reversible capacity of ~460 mAh/g, achieving the theoretical capacity of that particular electrode formulation. These SPE carbon-coated Sn nanoparticles are drop-in ready for present commercial lithium-ion anode processing and would provide a ~10% increase in the total capacity of current commercial lithium-ion cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Information Processing Capacity of Spintronic Oscillator

Physical reservoir computing is a framework that enables energy‐efficient information processing by using physical systems. Nonlinear dynamics in physical systems provide a computational capability that is unique to reservoirs. It is, however, difficult to find an appropriate task for a reservoir because of the complexity of nonlinear information processing. The information processing capacity has recently been used to clarify systematically the tasks that are solved by reservoirs; it quantifies the memory capacity of reservoirs in accordance with the order of nonlinearity. Herein, an experimental evaluation of the information processing capacity of a spintronic oscillator consisting of nanostructured ferromagnets is reported. The spintronic reservoir state is electrically manipulated by adding a delayed‐feedback circuit. The total capacity reaches a maximum of 5.6 at the edge of the echo state property. A trade‐off between the linear and nonlinear components of the capacity is also found. The result can be used to better understand the nonlinear information processing in reservoirs and to find good matches between reservoirs and tasks. As an example, a function‐approximation task is performed and it is found that it can be efficiently solved when the reservoir state is appropriately tuned so that its information processing capacity matches that of the task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the initial irreversible capacity loss of LiNi 0.6 Co 0.2 Mn 0.2 O 2 cathode material batteries

Layered LiNi 0.6 Co 0.2 Mn 0.2 O 2 (NCM622) attracts widespread attention primarily due to its potential for high energy density and moderate thermal stability. However, the low initial coulombic efficiency (ICE) of the material limits the maximum utilization of their capacity. The capacity loss in the first cycle occurs under 4.0V and keep almost constant are considered as common characteristics for NCM-based materials. A clear cognition on the initial capacity loss may light the way to improve the practical reversible capacity of NCM622 at 4.0V. Conducting operando X-ray diffraction during galvanostatic charge/discharge cycling at different temperature (25 degrees C, 45 degrees C and 60 degrees C) and different current (0.1C, 0.01C, 1C=120 mA g -1 ) in the voltage range of 2.7-4.0V, we find that only 8% of the measured initial irreversible capacity loss is associated with parasitic reactions that form cathode/electrolyte interface, and that the dominant contributors include the slow Li + diffusion kinetics (similar to 46% contribution) and irreversible O3/H1-3 phase transition (similar to 46% contribution). Finally, this semi-quantitative study provides new insight on initial capacity loss, guiding further targeted modification and fully utilization of NCM622.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting battery capacity and power degradation with multi-task learning

Lithium-ion batteries degrade due to usage and exposure to environmental conditions, which affects their capability to store energy and supply power. Accurately predicting the capacity and power fade of lithium-ion battery cells is challenging due to intrinsic manufacturing variances and coupled nonlinear ageing mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a data-driven prognostics framework to predict both capacity and power fade simultaneously with multi-task learning. The model is able to predict the degradation trajectory of both capacity and internal resistance together with knee-points and end-of-life points accurately at early-life stage. The validation shows an average percentage error of 2.37% and 1.24% for the prediction of capacity fade and resistance rise, respectively. The model's ability to accurately predict the degradation, facing capacity and resistance estimation errors, further demonstrates the model's robustness and generalizability. Compared with single-task learning models for forecasting capacity and power degradation, the model shows a significant prediction accuracy improvement and computational cost reduction. This work presents the highlights of multi-task learning in the degradation prognostics for lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Convolutional Neural Network Model for Battery Capacity Fade Curve Prediction using Early Life Data

Herein, early prediction of battery performance degradation trends can facilitate research of new materials and cell designs, rapid deployment of batteries in real-world applications, timely replacement of batteries in critical applications, and even the secondary use market. In this study, we design a convolutional neural network model to predict the entire battery capacity fade curve - a critical indicator of battery performance degradation - using first 100 cycles of data (~ three weeks of testing). We use the discharge voltage-capacity curves as input to the model and automate the feature extraction process through the convolutional layers of the network. Our approach can predict the per cycle capacity fade rate and rollover cycle (knee point) in the capacity fade curve, which indicate the onset of rapid capacity decay. On the publicly available graphite/LiFePO 4 battery dataset, optimized networks predict the capacity fade curves, rollover cycle, and end of life with 3.7% (worst-case), 19%, and 17% mean absolute percentage errors, respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗