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DOE OSTI2023

Summary Analysis of Different Offshore Wind Capacity Density Drivers in Proposed U.S. Projects and Impacts on Progress Towards State and Federal Deployment Targets

Understanding the density of offshore wind development - or the "capacity density" - is important for state and federal offshore wind planning efforts and to track progress towards policy goals. NREL has traditionally assumed a capacity density of 3 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2) when estimating the U.S. project pipeline (Musial et al. 2022), but capacity densities for existing European offshore wind farms ranged from 2-19 MW/km2 (Borrmann et al. 2018). We track the expected capacity densities of the proposed U.S. projects in the East Coast and make an analysis by state and by developer to identify what are the capacity density norms in the industry and whether the state in which the development efforts are taking place has some impact on capacity density. We also analyze the effects of the area occupied by station keeping systems on capacity density for lease areas dedicated to floating projects and provide a list of main capacity density drivers. This summary analysis sets a baseline to study how different capacity density drivers could impact the progress towards state and federal deployment targets. Given the currently delineated Renewable Energy Areas in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and the basis from the summary analysis, we estimate the expected offshore wind deployment over time federally and by state and compare it to the state and federal deployment targets. The proposed analysis helps identify gaps and needs to meet state and federal targets, which provides sufficient information to propose strategic supply chain and policy planning with the objective of meeting deployment goals.

capacity density↗

NASA NTRS2000

Capacity of Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) on Gaussian and Webb Channels

This article computes the capacity of various idealized soft-decision channels modeling an optical channel using an avalanche photodiode detector (APD) and pulse-position modulation (PPM). The capacity of this optical channel depends in a complicated way on the physical parameters of the APD and the constraints imposed by the PPM orthogonal signaling set. This article attempts to identify and separate the effects of several fundamental parameters on the capacity of the APD-detected optical PPM channel. First, an overall signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) parameter is de ned such that the capacity as a function of a bit-normalized version of this SNR drops precipitously toward zero at quasi-brick-wall limits on bit SNR that are numerically the same as the well-understood brick-wall limits for the standard additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. A second parameter is used to quantify the effects on capacity of one unique facet of the optical PPM channel (as compared with the standard AWGN channel) that causes the noise variance to be higher in signal slots than in nonsignal slots. This nonuniform noise variance yields interesting capacity effects even when the channel model is AWGN. A third parameter is used to measure the effects on capacity of the difference between an AWGN model and a non-Gaussian model proposed by Webb (see reference in [2]) for approximating the statistics of the APD-detected optical channel. Finally, a fourth parameter is used to quantify the blending of a Webb model with a pure AWGN model to account for thermal noise. Numerical results show that the capacity of M-ary orthogonal signaling on the Webb channel exhibits the same brick-wall Shannon limit, (M ln 2)=(M 1), as on the AWGN channel ( 1:59 dB for large M). Results also compare the capacity obtained by hard- and soft-output channels and indicate that soft-output channels o er a 3-dB advantage.

Dolinar, S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling Accurate Electrochemical Behaviors for High-Capacity Electrodes via Reviving Three-Electrode Vehicles

Developing high-capacity electrodes requires the evaluation of electrochemical behaviors with an increasing current density. Currently, the current density for evaluation of high-capacity electrodes has reached a new stage where the polarization at the lithium counter electrode has become a technical barrier for the accurate evaluation of battery electrodes, resulting in severe performance and mechanism mischaracterizations. Here, the accurate electrochemical behavior for high-capacity electrodes via a single-channel three-electrode vehicle is decoupled, by which the impact of lithium counter electrode is minimized. The testing high-capacity graphite electrode is capable of delivering an excellent rate capability with 81.7% capacity retention at 0.3 C, as well as stable cycling performance retaining 97.5% practical reversible capacity after 225 cycles, much higher than the graphite electrode tested with traditional half-cell testing vehicle but in close agreement with the results obtained from a well-matched full cell, reflecting accurate electrochemical performance evaluations of high-capacity electrodes. Moreover, detailed electrochemical mechanisms of impedance and diffusion properties for working electrodes are also successfully decoupled individually. Here, this work uncovers the mismatch between traditional evaluation configuration and increasing testing current density and provides a guideline for accurate electrochemical evaluation for ever-increasing high-capacity electrodes, which is of great significance for high-energy lithium or other alkali-metal ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

Battery storage is increasingly identified as being among the least-cost mix of technologies in the evolving U.S. electricity mix. This study explores the marginal capacity credit of batteries using a probabilistic, reliability-based, effective firm capacity method, which we apply for multiple battery power ratings, durations, coupling types, deployment locations, and dispatch profiles within a test system that is based on the Texas Interconnection in the year 2024. We find that the capacity credits for all battery durations depend on their ability to predict the timing of reliability events. Even 1-2 h forecast errors - resulting in early or delayed battery discharging relative to the onset of a reliability event - lead pronounced capacity credit reductions, especially for 4-h duration batteries. Coupling batteries with solar mitigates the uncertainty associated with a shorter-duration battery's availability during reliability events, primarily due to the relatively high solar capacity credit in our test system. Coupled (or hybrid) system designs with oversized solar arrays, the ability to charge the coupled battery with grid energy, and larger batteries lead to the greatest capacity credit benefits of hybridization. We do not see evidence that the hybrid capacity credit exceeds the sum of the separate battery and solar capacity credits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capacity Density Considerations for Floating Offshore Wind Farms in Ultradeep Waters

Capacity density describes the concentration of wind energy development in an area and is often specified in terms of megawatts-per-square-kilometer (MW/km2). Understanding capacity density trends in wind energy projects helps to inform both energy system and spatial planning efforts. Borrman et al. (2018) and Mulas Hernando et al. (2023) analyze capacity density trends for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms in Europe and the United States, respectively, and Cooperman et al. (2022) explores how floating offshore wind mooring technology choices may impact wind plant layout through setbacks from lease area boundaries in waters up to 1,300 m deep. Technical challenges facing floating offshore wind development in ultradeep waters (beyond 1,300 m) could impact achievable capacity densities, with potential implications to marine spatial planning and project economics. When compared to fixed-bottom commercial-scale wind farms, mooring system footprints from floating offshore wind systems can constrain capacity density in some circumstances. In this study, we conduct an initial investigation of how taut mooring configurations may constrain floating offshore wind turbine placement and estimate capacity density for representative floating wind plants in generic lease areas. In addition, we explore floating wind plant capacity density drivers in ultradeep waters by characterizing area utilization for a range of lease area characteristics. This analysis highlights the primary challenges that floating offshore wind systems may encounter in achieving capacity densities comparable to commercial-scale fixed-bottom projects at ultradeep water depths, from a technical standpoint.

capacity density↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting the definition of field capacity as a functional parameter in a layered agronomic soil profile beneath irrigated maize

The soil water content at the condition of field capacity (θ FC ) is a key parameter in irrigation scheduling and has been suggested to be determined by running a synthetic drainage experiment until the flux rate (q) at the bottom of the soil profile achieves a predefined negligible value (q FC ). We question the impact of q FC on the assessment of field capacity. Moreover, calculating θ FC as the integral mean of the water content profile when q is equal to q FC is strictly valid only for uniform soil profiles. By contrast, this practice is ambiguous and biased for stratified soil profiles due to the soil water content discontinuity at the layer interfaces. In this study, the concept of field capacity was revisited and adapted to practical agronomic heuristics. By resorting to the assessment of root-zone water storage capacity (W), we envision field capacity as a functional hydraulic parameter derived from synthetic irrigation scheduling scenarios to minimize drought stress, drainage, and nitrate leachate below the root zone. A functional analysis was carried out on a 135-cm-thick layered soil profile beneath maize in eastern Nebraska. On-farm irrigation scheduling applications and agricultural practices were recorded for 20 years (2001–2020) at a daily time step. Hydrus-1D was calibrated and validated with direct measurements of the soil water retention curve and soil water content data, respectively, in each soil layer. A set of functional field capacity values was derived from 24 irrigation scheduling scenarios, and the optimal water storage capacity at field capacity (W FC ) was approximately 50 cm (corresponding to about 80% saturation in the soil profile). An average irrigation amount of 217.5 mm distributed over 21 events was obtained by using optimal irrigation scheduling, which was initiated when the matric pressure head took on a value of –700 cm and the irrigation rate was set at 1.0 cm d –1 . This irrigation practice ensured water storage at approximately the same level (ideally at W FC ) by sustaining only evapotranspiration fluxes in the uppermost portion of the root zone and by limiting excessive drainage. This protocol can be transferred to other agricultural fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Semiconducting Zn x Mo 3 S 13 -GO Chalcocarbogel: A High-Capacity and Stable Sulfur-Equivalent Conversion-Based Electrode for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Lithium–sulfur batteries with a sulfur electrode offer a theoretical capacity of ∼1672 mAh g –1 , but rapid capacity loss mainly constrains their practical application. This work introduces a semiconducting and amorphous Zn x Mo 3 S 13 -GO (x = 0.5) chalcocarbogel sulfur-equivalent electrode with superior capacity and stability for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The Zn x Mo 3 S 13 -GO is synthesized in solution under ambient conditions, and its local structure contains S–S, M-Q (M = Mo, Zn; Q = S, O), C–S, and Mo–Mo bonding motifs with Mo coordination environment closely related to Mo 3 S 13 anions, as determined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, synchrotron X-ray scattering, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. The Li/Zn x Mo 3 S 13 -GO cell offers an initial discharge capacity of 1019 mAh g –1 at a rate of C/3. After the activation cycles, the Li/Zn x Mo 3 S 13 -GO cell demonstrates good cycling stability, retaining a discharge capacity of 519.4 mAh g –1 after 250 cycles with ∼99.98% Coulombic efficiency and excellent rate capabilities. Moreover, it provides an initial discharge capacity of ∼574 mAh g –1 and maintains a retention capacity of 279 mAh g –1 at 1C after 625 cycles. The Lewis acidic Zn 2+ ion enhances the Lewis basic polysulfide anchoring ability and reduces the dissolution of polysulfides produced during the redox process through Zn–S covalent interaction, while the semiconducting and amorphous structure of the chalcocarbogel increases the electrical and ionic conductivity. Furthermore, this work highlights chalcocarbogels’ potential for developing high-capacity and stable electrodes for LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technical Potential for Hydropower Capacity at Non-powered Dams

In the last decade, retrofits of existing nonpowered dams (NPDs) have made up the largest share of capacity increases for US hydropower. Accurate estimates of potential capacity and generation at NPDs help identify sites that may be worth investing in detailed feasibility analyses and design exploration. This dataset consists of NPDs in the conterminous US with at least 100kW of theoretical potential based on earlier resource assessments. Historical daily streamflow (modeled or from USGS gauge records), hydraulic head (based on historical observations or primary purpose and dam height) are the main inputs for HydroGenerate which determines design flow and turbine efficiencies and then calculates nominal capacity, daily generation, and capacity factor. These outputs are summarized on a monthly basis (i.e., generation (MWh) and capacity factor averaged for each month from January to December) and overall (i.e., nominal capacity, average annual generation (MWh), and average annual capacity factor). A total of 4.1 GW capacity is estimated across all 2,564 NPDs included in the dataset.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical Potential for Hydropower Capacity at Non-powered Dams

In the last decade, retrofits of existing nonpowered dams (NPDs) have made up the largest share of capacity increases for US hydropower. Accurate estimates of potential capacity and generation at NPDs help identify sites that may be worth investing in detailed feasibility analyses and design exploration. This dataset contains estimates of technical potential capacity and generation at 2,616 NPDs in the conterminous US. This is based on a subset of dams that were found by earlier resource assessments to have at least 100kW of theoretical potential. Historical daily streamflow (modeled or from USGS gauge records) and hydraulic head (based on historical observations or primary purpose and dam height) are the main inputs to the HydroGenerate model, which determines design flow, turbine efficiencies, and assumed friction losses and then calculates nominal capacity, daily generation, and capacity factor. These estimates represent the conditions over the historical period of 1980-2015, and are summarized on a monthly basis (i.e., averaged for each month of the year) and overall (i.e., nominal capacity, average annual generation (MWh), and average annual capacity factor). A total of nearly 4 GW capacity is estimated across all 2,616 NPDs included in the dataset.

Hansen, Carly [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

NASA NTRS1992

Utilization of the graded universal testing system to increase the efficiency for assessing aerobic and anaerobic capacity

The in-flight exercise test performed by cosmonauts as part of the Russian Exercise Countermeasure Program is limited to 5 minutes due to communication restrictions. During a recent graded exercise test on a U.S. Shuttle flight, the test was terminated early due to an upcoming loss of signal (LOS) with the ground. This exercise test was a traditional test where the subject's exercise capacity dictates the length of the test. For example, one crew member may take 15 minutes to complete the test, while another may take 18 minutes. The traditional exercise test limits the flight schedulers to large blocks of space flight time in order to provide medical and research personnel information on the fitness capacity (maximal oxygen uptake: VO2max) of crew members during flight. A graded exercise test that would take a finite amount of time and a set preparation and recovery time would ease this problem by allowing flight schedulers to plan exercise tests in advance of LOS. The Graded Universal Testing System (GUTS) was designed to meet this goal. Fitness testing of astronauts before and after flight provides pertinent data on many variables. The Detailed Supplemental Objective (DSO608) protocol (6) is one of the graded exercise tests (GXT) currently used in astronaut testing before and after flight. Test times for this protocol have lasted from 11 to 18 minutes. Anaerobic capacity is an important variable that is currently not being evaluated before and after flight. Recent reports (1,2,5) from the literature have suggested that the oxygen deficit at supramaximal exercise is a measure of anaerobic capacity. We postulated that the oxygen deficit at maximal exercise would be an indication of anaerobic capacity. If this postulate can be accepted, then the efficiency of acquiring data from a graded exercise test would increase at least twofold. To examine this hypothesis anaerobic capacity was measured using a modified treadmill test (3,4) designed to exhaust the anaerobic systems in approximately 45 to 75 seconds. Lactate concentration in the blood was analyzed after all tests, since lactate is the end-product of anaerobic energy production. Therefore, the peak lactate response is an additional indication of anaerobic capacity. A preliminary comparison of the GUTS and the DSO608 suggests that the GUTS protocol would increase the efficiency of VO2max testing of astronauts before and after flight. Results for anaerobic capacity have not been tabulated.

Rodgers, Sandra L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Load Capacity Estimation of Foil Air Journal Bearings for Oil-Free Turbomachinery Applications

This paper introduces a simple "Rule of Thumb" (ROT) method to estimate the load capacity of foil air journal bearings, which are self-acting compliant-surface hydrodynamic bearings being considered for Oil-Free turbo-machinery applications such as gas turbine engines. The ROT is based on first principles and data available in the literature and it relates bearing load capacity to the bearing size and speed through an empirically based load capacity coefficient, D. It is shown that load capacity is a linear function of bearing surface velocity and bearing projected area. Furthermore, it was found that the load capacity coefficient, D, is related to the design features of the bearing compliant members and operating conditions (speed and ambient temperature). Early bearing designs with basic or "first generation" compliant support elements have relatively low load capacity. More advanced bearings, in which the compliance of the support structure is tailored, have load capacities up to five times those of simpler designs. The ROT enables simplified load capacity estimation for foil air journal bearings and can guide development of new Oil-Free turbomachinery systems.

DellaCorte, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS1992

Adaptability of the oxidative capacity of motoneurons

Previous studies have demonstrated that a chronic change in neuronal activation can produce a change in soma oxidative capacity, suggesting that: (i) these 2 variables are directly related in neurons and (ii) ion pumping is an important energy requiring activity of a neuron. Most of these studies, however, have focused on reduced activation levels of sensory systems. In the present study the effect of a chronic increase or decrease in motoneuronal activity on motoneuron oxidative capacity and soma size was studied. In addition, the effect of chronic axotomy was studied as an indicator of whether cytoplasmic volume may also be related to the oxidative capacity of motoneurons. A quantitative histochemical assay for succinate dehydrogenase activity was used as a measure of motoneuron oxidative capacity in experimental models in which chronic electromyography has been used to verify neuronal activity levels. Spinal transection reduced, and spinal isolation virtually eliminated lumbar motoneuron electrical activity. Functional overload of the plantaris by removal of its major synergists was used to chronically increase neural activity of the plantaris motor pool. No change in oxidative capacity or soma size resulted from either a chronic increase or decrease in neuronal activity level. These data indicate that the chronic modulation of ionic transport and neurotransmitter turnover associated with action potentials do not induce compensatory metabolic responses in the metabolic capacity of the soma of lumbar motoneurons. Soma oxidative capacity was reduced in the axotomized motoneurons, suggesting that a combination of axoplasmic transport, intracellular biosynthesis and perhaps neurotransmitter turnover represent the major energy demands on a motoneuron. While soma oxidative capacity may be closely related to neural activity in some neural systems, e.g. visual and auditory, lumbar motoneurons appear to be much less sensitive to modulations in chronic activity levels.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Capacity and Coulombic Efficiency Measurements Underestimate the Rate of SEI Growth in Silicon Anodes

Capacity measurements and related quantities are the first layer of information acquired during testing of Li-ion cells. It is generally considered that elevated values of coulombic efficiency and capacity retention are absolute indicators of the existence of a stable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Here, we challenge this notion by analyzing how the effect of side reactions on cell capacity depends on the choice of electrodes. More specifically, we demonstrate that the extent of measurable capacity fade due to SEI growth is modulated by the shape of the voltage profile of the cathode and anode at the end of charge and discharge half-cycles. This shape-dependency creates a mismatch between SEI growth and cell capacity loss, which is relatively small for graphite anodes but sizable for silicon-containing electrodes. We illustrate this point by showing that, at the same coulombic efficiency and capacity retention, cells containing silicon-based materials could actually exhibit rates of SEI growth that are as much as ≥ 40% higher than graphite cells. The main implication of this behavior is that, for certain systems, capacity measurements may be an unreliable source of information about the extent of reactions at the SEI, allowing other consequences of these side reactions (such as electrolyte depletion) to proceed unchecked while the cell appears to be stable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗